Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Oscar Updates: Actor & Supporting Actor

I feel like we don't have a bead on where the male acting categories are going yet. If you really stop to think about it the early year buzz leaders: Up, Bright Star and Precious... techs for Star Trek (excessively popular films score in tech categories) -- well, none of these films will factor into the male acting categories at all. The races are so wide open, you could steer a house carried by balloons through them.


So I've thrown caution to the wind in my predictions: Summer nominees, lyncathropes, evil Nazis in films Oscar won't like at all ... you name it, they figure in. Prediction Updates for BEST ACTOR and BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR .
*

21 comments:

Katey said...

1) The Coens movie is "A Serious Man." Don't draw any unnecessary connections to A Beautiful Mind!

2) Paul Schneider! I love this guy, and after his nice little parts in Lars and the Real Girl and Jesse James, he deserves a meatier supporting part.

Liz said...

I swear if McAvoy turns in a great performance but still doesnt make it in this year, i will rip my hair out. I'm still finding it difficult to accept that he didnt get more recognition for his work in the Last King of Scotland. With only just a few movies under his belt he is already one of the most consistent young actors working today. I'd do anything for the chance to see him on stage in London.

amir_uk said...

James McAvoy, yes, PLEASE let him into the club for godssake! Can we just pretend this would be his 3rd nom? I don't care if he's rubbish in this film (as if!), has 30 seconds of screentime, or is in fact, not in the film at all - NOMINATE HIM dammit!

Also, is that really Matt Damon in The Human Factor pic? From that side profile he looks like a blond 18-year-old hot-twink! Mmmm...

amir_uk said...

Liz, he was beautiful and perfect on stage in Three Days of Rain. So sexy with his character's internal struggles!

Chris Na Taraja said...

How can we even begin to guess?! We are not even close to December/January, and being bombarded with oscar hopeful movies with the same vigor as those annoying high school sparkled posters for dance competitions and student body elections.

Anyone who puts their movie out in the summer (and is not an action blockbuster) risks being forgotten by the time we get to oscar frenzy.

Remember ROAD TO PERDITION, case in point.

@Liz, Forest Witakers' light was shining way too bright for McAvoy to snag an award for LAST KING OF SCOTLAND. Although I must agree, he did some fine work in that film.

pomme said...

i believe in Johnny Depp for Public enemies but i don't believe for Crudup(too little role)or Bale(too Christian Bale role)!
and i believe in Inglorious Basterds guy and Michael Fassbender for Hunger(when was it out in USA?)

NATHANIEL R said...

@Katey. HA. I'm so lame sometimes.
re: Paul Scheider. Me too.

@Liz. Me too (i'm so agreeable today)

@Pomme re: your Christian Bale comment... Hilarious!

cal roth said...

On Waltz: remember Academy nominated Robert Forster without embracing Jackie Brown. And see that Waltz is getting much more buzz than Forster ever did.

cal roth said...

And I think Paul Giamatti gets in if AMPAS do embrace The Last Station. Not McAvoy. Giamatti seems to have a baitier role, is far more respected as an actor (character > Pretty when it comes to supporting actor) and was nominated before.

Yancey said...

I think that "The Road" is going to be big, and both Viggo Mortensen and Kodi Smit-McPhee should be in their respective top fives. Don't sleep on them!

Pivo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Pivo said...

What I can't get is why you seem so confident about "The last station". How far did Michael Hoffman get at the Oscars? The double noms/wins of "Restoration" fifteen years ago??? I'm not being cynical, I swear. I really want to understand your reasons.

NATHANIEL R said...

@Pivo. My reasoning is really just about the cast and the subject matter. Oscar loves films about writers and the cast is tony. It seems like a middlebrow effort that could really appeal to them.

adam k. said...

I think Day-Lewis will go the Richard Gere route and win the C/M globe but be snubbed at oscar time (for 5 intense, dramatic roles). Since there seems to be no other major comedy contender on the horizon.

Nine will have to win multiple globes, after all.

I think it wins picture, actor, and possibly song.

Anonymous said...

I really want Max von Sydow nominated for "Shutter Island"

Jack said...

As for Del Toro, in Empire this month they have an article about The Wolf Man and they're talking about it like it's quite serious and everyone's really playing up Del Toro's involvement in it and how he's been the rock that has held the whole thing together. I think your "Greystoke"-comparison could be right.

rosengje said...

I keep forgetting to ask how Michael K. Williams was as the thief in The Road. I know he was a very (very) small role but even though it wouldn't translate into awards recognition I wonder if it is enough for critics to at least latch onto him.

NATHANIEL R said...

rosengje --
SPOILER

he's fine but it's the itty bittiest role so nobody will really mention. He's barely in it.

The only cameos that are meaty enough to get attention are from Garret Dillahunt (it's a totally frightening scene) and Robert Duvall (because he gets a bigger scene and closeups of his own)... at least in the rough cut I saw.

adri said...

I did read the book The Last Station. I wasn't that keen on it, it was a little dull, but that doesn't mean the movie couldn't be a whole lot more interesting.

In the book, the main roles belong to McEvoy's and Mirren's characters. Plummer and Giamatti's characters are supporting. But they are all pretty juicy roles. And depending on what theme they're going with, the size of the roles may vary.

The "last Station" refers to Tolstoy's death (that's not giving the end away is it?) in a train station surrounded by a mob of that era's paparazzi, vultures even at death of the country's biggest celebrity.

Without seeing it, I'd guess at McEvoy for lead and Plummer as support (and Plummer winning it). For lead, so far I also like Mortenson and Freeman.

Watbe N. said...

Paul Schneider I really liked him as Brad, Amy's would-be suitor on "The Family Stone." His reaction to Meredith's mini-meltdown still makes me laugh.

Ryan said...

FREEMAN and DAMON again… yawn. Performances better be damn good if they hold those spots come December. Part of me feels like DEPP is a slam dunk for both the nom and win if for no other reason than how much the industry (and public) worship him. and your right though, if ‘Enemies’ is a major hit he could be hard to beat. Plus, it'd suck for him to finally win in a glossy, middle-brow, Oscar-bait biopic. Im really hoping Mann delivers.

As for supporting, Im just curious as to where MAGUIRE and my boy GYLEENHAAL will be campaigned for 'BROTHERS'. Lets not forget Sherdian’s performers tend to emerge TOTAL Oscar magnets.