Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Oscar Updates: Actress, Picture, Screenplays

I don't want to be a Negative Nancy but I already worry for the collective mental health of Pixar lovers everywhere. Seems people are already talking like Up might be the one to finally nab Pixar a Best Picture nomination, not just an Animated Feature statue. Even celebrities are talking it up. Iron Man director Jon Favreau tweeted about it saying
Just saw Up. It might be time for a Pixar movie to win Best Picture.
Oh, people, people, people. Come back down to earth. Oscar is soooo gonna pop that balloon!

Don't get your hopes up that high! Its success makes it a good bet for the usual animated categories: screenplay, sound, score animated feature but Best Picture? If WALL•E couldn't do the trick...

Updated Predictions:
PICTURE / DIRECTOR / ACTRESS / SCREENPLAYS / Index of Predictions
*

79 comments:

Dean said...

Agreed, if Wall-E couldn't do it then I think people are kidding themselves about Up. I really didn't think it was much more than just a good animated adventure film.

Fernando Moss said...

I think the only way and animated movie will get into the mix ever again would be if there was a hell of a disappointing year and there's an uber-acclaimed animated pic.

Fernando Moss said...

And still they probably would go for some shitty crap produced or directed by one of their favorites ;)

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Nat, you have to correct your description of The Lovely Bones and Precious in the Best Picture Nominations :)

Fernando Moss said...

As for your Best Actress predictions I think your Top 4 could make it... but, I think the fifth slot is someone that will end up surprising everyone... Maybe someone we haven't heard about or someone nobody has high expections for or... who knows?

adelutza said...

I doubt Public Enemies is getting a nom. Precious probably will but I don't see Gabourey Sidibe nominated. She doesn't do much in the movie . I wander what made you take Helen Mirren out and not Emily Watson - neither film has a distributor as of now but Love Ranch has more changes of getting it imho.

Agent69 said...

Haha, I'd give my right ball to see Charlotte Gainsbourg nominated.
Oh, and why wasn't Björk nominated? I know the movie was/is divisive, but everybody agreed she was outstanding.
I think WALL-E's snub helps Up, and people are really adamant about seeing Pixar in the Picture race (rightly so). How long can they resist?
I love your reference to "Amélie fanatics" - I'm one of them and would love to see Tatou nomed.

But I still can't get excited for Oscars, Precious and all that jazz; at least not until I satisfy my thirst for Antichrist and The White Ribbon.

DJ said...

Why so confident in Public Enemies?

And I agree about Up's chances - I think Wall-E had an even better one last year (unless this turns out to be an incredible weak year), plus it was more "prestigious."

Anonymous said...

Have to agree with you on UP's chances. If WALL-E couldn't do it in a terribly underwhelming year, it seems doubtful any animated film will have a chance. I am surprised at yours (and several others) inclusion of PRECIOUS. I know the buzz is there, but (and I say this as an African American) doesn't it seem too "urban" for the Academy? That's not to say they won't embrace a movie headlined by minorities, but those films tend to be guided by someone more like Mr. Spielberg than Lee Daniels. Just ask Spike Lee... on second thought, don't.

-Val

Anonymous said...

To be honest, I see Precious as the little film that could. Although I don't think it will win. I mean at this point in the game it has the reviews, unlike many of the unseen films.

I actually think the animated category could be more interesting this year, with 9, Coraline, Up, Princess/Frog, Fantastic Fox etc.

After the test screening reviews of Public Enemies, it doesn't sound like an Oscar movie at all, unless you include the fantastic reviews for Marion.

If Carey Mulligan gets a nominiation for An Education could she get another one for Never Let Me go next year. She's the lead, Keira is supporting and the book is considered a masterpiece.


~Lily

Anonymous said...

Nate, your best actress Oscar screen is partially blocked off by blackness on the left side. Can you fix this so your readers can see all your comments.

Thanks...

Bryan said...

Streep still hasn't crossed over to lead actress for J&J, eh?

Two more months and she'll be there.

Anonymous said...

I think Streep has the best chance of winning in lead. Pfiffer looks very iffy to me for a nomination as well as Ronan & Watson. Streep's main competition would be Mulligan who really is an unknown. This should be Streep's year FINALLY and once and for all...

Arkaan said...

re: director

Why not Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker? At least in the top 25.

Seeking Amy said...

I don't see Precious getting in the top either. At the most I could see this for it

Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actress (more of a long shot)

and a lone director nod but no Best Picture

I love Streep but I wouldn't want her to win Best Actress for Julie and Julia. The trailer is so...I don't know. It's just not the performance I would want Meryl to finally win her 3rd for!

The more I think about things, the more I see Avatar getting in. Maybe it's just the massive hype that, but regardless that would be pretty exciting.


Curious Nathaniel, was Pfeiffer's performance in Cheri one of her best you think?

Ryan said...

Haha, I feel the description for Bright Star was an accident...

BeBe said...

"WALL-E" might be the pinnacle of the Pixar crown. If a film like that couldn't win Best Picture, "Up" won't be able to do it. The Academy won't be able to get their heads out of their asses long enough to do that, and while I liked "Up", I didn't quite love it. It's still hard to mask my disappointment over "WALL-E" not making the BP cut.

Ron said...

The black bar is obscuring the text on the actress page. Can that be fixed?

NATHANIEL R said...

ron can you explain what web browser you're using. I don't see black bars.

ryan ha ha. right you are. oops

seeking amy my 3 favorite Pfeiff performances... i.e. the ones that I feel she deserved the Oscar for (yes, in my world she has 3) are FAB BAKER BOYS (89), BATMAN RETURNS (92) and WHITE OLEANDER (02)... and they remain my 3 favs. But I loved seeing her in Chéri. In some ways it was Pfeiffer porn ;) being all about how breathtaking she is.

arkaan I forgot Bigelow. I'm a fan so it was a simple omission. I shall fix.

Chris Na Taraja said...

So true. Then again weirder things have happened, I mean Whoopi won for GHOST instead of THE COLOR PURPLE. Maybe all the hype from WALL-E could blow some hot air into UP. But I agree with you, hollywood is going to pop that balloon.

18 Year Old Blogger said...

Nate,

I think you are underestimating UP. It's a movie about an old guy on a journey and I promise you it will stick with older generation academy voters until the fall.

The AMPAS voter I know (She's in her 70's and thought the film was nomination worthy) says that the screening on Saturday morning at the Academy she attended was packed and that the voters she was friends with thought the film was Pixar's best.

Ron said...

It's the black sidebar where the links are. It's too wide and I can't read the description of Carey Mulligan and the text that aligns with that.

Also, some of the descriptions for the best pictures don't match with the posters that they're under.

adam k. said...

I agree that the idea of a best pic nom for Up, after last year, seems silly on its face. BUT. It does have two things going for it that WALL•E did not have:

A) It will resonate with the old folks in ways WALL•E simply could not. Sure, I love WALL•E more. You love WALL•E more. But old stodgy academy voters may go gaga for up. Much moreso than for a film about a couple of little robots.

B) The WALL•E snub. That was the first time anyone ever came out of nomination morning thinking, "damn, that Pixar movie really shoulda made it". I think people may get it now. And the fact that there was ANOTHER great one right on its heels (which seems poised to make even more money) may get people to notice.

Those two things combined make me think, yes it is POSSIBLE... if a lot of prestige pics tank. But yeah, I wouldn't bet on it.

Denzel Hawke said...

I love Pixar and feel they have been overlooked for far too long, but even I don't think Up deserves the Oscar talk it's getting. It's good. It's not great. Best Picture -no. And I'm even iffy on a Best Screenplay nomination.

WALL-E deserved Best Picture. Up is no where near in terms of WALL-E's genius. And Up had it's issues. I won't gripe about the talking dogs, but how the hell did they learn to fly planes.

Denzel Hawke said...

As far as Precious goes, it's definitely a contender. I feel like it's getting just as much buzz if not more than most of the other pictures.

And I don't think Precious is too urban for the Academy. I think it's right up the Academy's alley. Black people with problems is their schtick. It's why they nominated The Color Purple and not Dreamgirls.

E Dot said...

I thought UP was better than WALL-E, actually. And I agree with Adam K, this film is much more relatable than WALL-E was. Don't get me wrong, WALL-E was amazing, but there wasn't much connection for me. UP, on the other hand, had some pretty mature subject matter mixed w/ some excellent comedic dialogue.

I think UP actually has a better chance that WALL-E does if it's a bleak movie season. It's too early to say now, but I can actually see this one sneaking in (something I've never said about an animated film before...)

Anonymous said...

NEWS JUST IN!!! The Human Factor has been retitled "invictus" hope that helps!

Jesue V // FILM MUSIC ART blog said...

I can see it getting nominated for the best picture but maybe not winning. It would be awesome if it did though.

Glenn Dunks said...

I initially toyed with predicting Up for BP in my year-in-advance predictions back in February, but two things stopped me:

1. It's very much a kids movie. Yes, adults like it, but how often does that happen? Babe is the last one I can think of.

2. Pixar burnout. As great as I'm sure many in the Academy will find Up I'm still not even entirely sure it will win best animated feature in a year when they can reward people like Henry Sellick. Maybe giving Pixar a year off.

But, yeah... stranger things have happened.

I'm glad my initial hunches about Lee Daniels and the screenplay also being nominated alongside Mo'Nique could very well come to fruition. Still not certain about a best picture nod.

But, yeah... stranger things have happened.

Jae Ly said...

I think it is safe to say The Time Traveler's Wife is being dumped in a real bad way. No trailer or poster yet and the film is supposed to come out in the middle of August dumping grounds. (It was supposed to come out December 25 last year) The film has been delayed with no proper reason except McAdams saying they had to wait until Eric Bana's hair grew back for reshoots. She has also openly admitted that many of the beloved characters in the book have been cut, and the film will solely focus on the love story. I think McAdams signed on when Gus Van Sant was attached, and when he backed out, she was already contractually bound. I liked the novel, but none of the signs for the movie look positive besides the casting of the two leads.

adam k. said...

I don't think Coraline will beat Up in animated feature, simply because Up will be a giant-sized hit, and Coraline was not. Plus Up has better reviews, to boot... the best of the year so far. Plus Coraline came out earlier and will be fading from memory. So there'd be very little rationale for it winning.

Pixar sure has won a lot, though, and they certainly aren't "owed" another Animated Feature oscar. But this particular year, I can't see why Up would lose.

Jim T said...

Anonymous 5:42, I hate you! OH my God. I'm reading this book and I'm fascinated by it! Why????????????

PS: It's not even a good argument. It doesn't matter whether she is or not. She acts as if she is. That's what counts.


Oh my God Oh my God. I'm angry.....

Jim T said...

The thing about Spielberg believing Ronan will win the Oscar was posted in a discussion at incontention.com.
I hope it's true. I really want her to be good.

Nate, has Tatou 3 nominations and a win? Where have I been? :p

PS: Still angry...

Urey said...

"Up" didn't really do it for me, and compared to "WALL-E", yeah, it's not on the same level at all. "Up" shouldn't benefit from a BP nod just b/c narrow-minded voters are guilty about snubbing "WALL-E." I'm more excited about seeing "The Princess and the Frog" and how that might shake things up in the race. Loved the trailer to that.

NATHANIEL R said...

Jim T fixed. GAH. I hate my copy and paste system. I need a proofreader.

anon spoilers without warning ARE NOT COOL.

Jordan Wellin said...

If The Reader and Frost/Nixon can get nominated over Wall-E, then Up stands zero chance.

brianmaru said...

Have seen Away We Go, Transformers 2 has as much of a chance at a screenplay as this. Wanted to like but it's a big big mess, and not in an Oscar friendly way.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry I didn't think it's a major spoiler.. of course it's a spoiler but it's a macguffin and revealed at middle of the film so.. anyway I'm really really sorry.

Sam said...

I can't read the Best Actress text either with that wide sidebar.

I think that "Precious" is going to win Best Picture.

Liz said...

I know we go through this every year but i just read the script for the Last Night and if Knightley can play the character right, she could be in for a real shot. Its a great role for her and its her first modern role in a long time though it might not be 'showy' enough to get much attention.

Cristhian said...

Sigh... I'm so prepared to hate Precious. Make it it best picture AMPAS, I warn you, it's gonna hurt in the morning.

MRRIPLEY said...

THIS MAY UPSET YOU NAT BUT YOUR TOP 5 BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS JUST SHOWS AT THIS POINT WE DON'T KNOW MUCH.

MULLIGAN IS THE ONLY 1 I HAVE FAITH IN.

adelutza said...

Honestly, from what i've seen up to now, the best lead actress performance for me is Tilda Swinton in Julia. And I've seen both, An Education and Precious.

Wayne B. said...

The only Actress I'm 100% certain will be nominated in February is Pfeiffer. The woman is a contemporary legend with legions of fans. A lot of the new Academy membership are in the 20s-30s age range, meaning that they've grown up watching her on-screen. The fact that she works infrequently might give the collective voters a kick in the pants to award her now rather than later. I don't think the film's weird tone or its defiance of expectations will hinder her nomination. I think 2005 and 2007 show that an actress can get nominated even with an underperforming film.

Mike said...

I was confident in Emily Watson's chances of receiving a nomination in February, but her film still has no distribution? Doesn't bode well for her.

And I am extremely excited by Precious. How fabulous would it be if Mo'nique won the Oscar and gave a speech about how skinny women are evil?

NATHANIEL R said...

wayne b i hope you are correct!

everyone sorry about the best actress page. I've resized but i never saw a problem to begin with so can't really tell what's wrong or if i've fixed it. i'm not sure which browser its not reading on.

Rick said...

Streep will not be nominated for Supporting actress for Julie and Julia because her role is even larger than Amy Adams ... maybe Best Actr., but I doubt it...I am also of the opinion that when she wins again ( and she will ) it should be for something great!

Also, I doubt Pfiffer has a chance for BA .. also, if she has so many fans ( "legions" ) why does her latest movies flop of go directly to cable?

adelutza said...

Nathaniel, the actress page has a problem but it's only for the Internet Explorer 6. Firefox, Safari and Opera are fine with it

Dorian said...

Who would it hurt Cristhian if "Precious" is widely accepted and a best picture? You? Cause it sure as hell won't hurt me, nor the many fans of the film already. And you can best believe that they've been looking for a "correct" black-themed picture to win there since forever. Then with Oprah championing for it like she does, yeah, don't be surprised if this is a seriously strong BP contender this year.

Cristhian said...

Dorian, I'm just judging based on the trailer and those sappy taglines....AND the fact that Oprah, Tyler Perry, Mariah Carey and the dumb girl from the View tend to get on my nerves. love Mo'nique, though. Also, since I'm still hang over from Crash and Slumdog Millionaire, i predict the same will happen with this one (you get on it, you like the ride then you get nauseous and wanna get off when everybody else you hate likes it). but that's just me.

Dorian said...

Yeah, that is just you and your prejudices at play.

Anonymous said...

This is a film appreciation blog, not a sociology class.

Peter Chan said...

I hope the age of Up's protagonist being close to most of the AMPAS voter's age boost its chances. At this point, I'll take just about any animated film to break this glass barrier.

Wayne B. said...

Rick - I think the reason why her latest movies have been "flopping or going straight to cable" isn't beacause of her or the number of fans she has. I think its the projects themselves. Since 2003 she's done five films: three theatrical releases, two straight-to-DVD. The two S-T-DVD films were both independently produced with no theatrical distributor. These two films were directed by a rookie and another who hasn't had a B.O. hit in over a decade. So its understandable why a distributing company wouldn't pick the films up and why they HAD TO debut on DVD.

"Stardust" felt like an attempt to jump on the fantasy fiction adaptation bandwagon; although it did gross over $136,000,000 world-wide on a $70M budget; hardly a flop. "Hairspray", obviously a big financial success and put her name back out there.
I don't think "Cheri" will light a box-office flame but the combination of romanticism, Frears direction and her own luminosity/legend will secure her a nomination.

cal roth said...

Go Firefox, people!

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry but I don't think La Pfeiffer has a secure nomination at this point.

*She failed of a nomination with "White Oleander" in 2003
*Her "sucessful" films aren't exactly for a LEAD performance from her. In fact, she was part of the ensemble cast...
*Remember waht happened with Sigourney Weaver...

But I don't said she's necessary OUT of the contention, even with a good campaign and a weak competition she could make it.

About Streep and "Julie & Julia", Many of comedic Oscar Winners were exactly for overdue actors: James Stewart, Rex Harrison, Lee Marvin, Glenda Jackson, Cher, etc. The buzz about a third Oscar for la Streep grow stronger every year, so maybe this is the year. Right now, the only real contender for Streep is Cornish.

Well if Glenda Jackson won for "A Touch of Class"...

Anonymous said...

Liz, I also heard that Keira's character is really good from people who've read the script. But I still say Keira is a longshot for now.




Lily

NATHANIEL R said...

well i think it's worth nothing that NO ONE has secured a spot anywhere yet (except UP as an animated feature nominee)

there's still a lot of films left to see. top ten lists. precursors. we've got a long way to go. Pfeiffer is as far away from a nomination as anyone at this point ;)

adam k. said...

I still think, for the record, that Pfeiffer will end up winning. Unless Julie & Julia turns out to be something really special.

jess said...

Nat, you forgot Charlize Theron (lead) and Kim Basinger (supporting) for The Burning Plain in your predix. Both earned very good reviews, and it's released in september

And they're both former winners

NATHANIEL R said...

adam k ... i'd have more faith in Pfeiffer winning if the reviews had been kinder so far (to the movie as a whole) and if they hadn't just given a 'make up' Oscar.

Because do those things really happen in consecutive years?

Arkaan said...

1. UP, while quite good, is a bit too "kiddy" for best picture, I think. I genuinely believe that because animated films have their own category now, they'll be less likely to cross over into the big one. The increased ghetto-ization hurts generally (see Waltz with Bashir and Persepolis missing out on nods in expected categories) and if WALL.E (with wall-to-wall great reviews, open category, etc) couldn't do it....

2. One thing I think that could play a role in this is overkill. Sure, there could be people out there who go "Pixar hasn't gotten a big nod YET!!!" But I think there will be just as many people who'll grumble about Pixar's seeming invulnerability with critics. I'll be honest - I'm getting a little sick of it, myself. "Finding Nemo," "Cars," Ratatouille"... these are OKAY movies, but nowhere near great. Obviously, some disagree, but the discourse surrounding these films is surprisingly Pavlovian. And I think that combined with jealousy within some people in Hollywood will conspire to kill Up's chances at a picture nod. I'm not even convinced it'll get a screenplay nod yet. I'm closer to Dean in terms of my personal feelings re: Up, if a bit warmer.

3. Outlandish is okay in the costume design category, AND Julie Taymor has never failed to get a film nominated. The Tempest, with it's gender bending and historical bent should be a shoo-in, I think.

4. THE ROAD = THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD.... who's with me?

Adaptation of great novel. Particular tone that isn't loveable. Dark subject matter. Australian director at the helm following up his aclaimed-but-small film. A leading actor will be shoehorned into support because he's not as big a star as the other.

Now, THE ROAD has the advantage in that I suspect the recent and overwhelming respect for the book (Pulitzer Prize, EW declaring it the best book of the past 25 years - it's not, but still something worth debating about) will boost critical recognition, which ...ROBERT FORD struggled with (some raves, some respect, some dismissals, some indifference). But it's something I like to mention.

Ron said...

I think that "The Road" is getting into best picture. The November release date, the pedigree (Cormac McCarthy, Viggo Mortensen, John Hillcoat), the subject matter, etc. Everything fits. But then the film could royally flop or get trashed in the reviews, but it's in my predictions at least.

The black bar is still too wide for the best actress page, but at least you tried to fix it. :-) I'll pretend that you wrote some very insightful blurb about Carey Mulligan and go from there.

Glenn Dunks said...

Adam, it's not about rewarding Coraline so much as rewarding Henry Sellick, which is why I still think the movie has a big chance of winning. They gave the prize to Miyazaki for an anime that made $10mil. Sellick is a legend in his field (Nightmare Before Christmas being more popular now than it was then, etc) so I think it's unfair to rule it out. Plus the Academy is quite fond of claymation.

If Up wins it will be three Pixar movies in a row. Outside of the Best Original Song category with Alan Menkin has any person or studio had such a stranglehold on a category?

Or maybe it's just my bitterness towards Disney for waiting until September to release the bloody thing down here.

Anonymous said...

Still no buzz for Cameron Diaz? I read the Forbes Celebrity Hot 100 and its saying she has a shot for My Sister's Keeper.

Morgan said...

Clint Eastwood finally named the Mandela biopic "Invictus". Shit if I know what that means, but that's the title.

Rick said...

Wayne B.

Thank you for your comments.

adam k. said...

I don't think it's impossible per se for Coraline to win, but Up already has a strangehold on the "animated film of the year" distinction, is being considered as a threat for best picture, will be nominated in multiple categories, has better reviews, and will make about 3x as much money as Coraline. So that's a real uphill climb. I guess a major Sellick-selling campaign might help.

As for it being too long of a Pixar streak, well, deglamming young starlets had a stranglehold on Best Actress for nearly a decade.

And you know that if this category'd existed in the early 90s, Disney would've won it every year.

adam k. said...

And for the record, I think Coraline was much more impressive visually, and probably more innovative, than Up, though I found Up's story was much more engaging. I would give Up the oscar, but only barely.

Morgan said...

Also wierd, I have different character photos in different browsers. IE and Firefox are giving me different photos for Mo'nique, the Nine ladies and Streep. I will continue to send you various promo/screenshots pics Nat (even though I see they're not being used).

NATHANIEL R said...

morgan i appreciate tips and photos. I just get a lot of e-mail so it takes me some time to get through it.

also re: INVICTUS. I know they've chosen that but I'll believe they've "settled" on it for good when i see the first teaser / poster. So many incarnations.

UNTITLED EASTWOOD / MANDELA PROJECT
THE HUMAN FACTOR
INVICTUS

wikipedia even lists the book it's based on under two different names:

HUMAN FACTOR: NELSON MANDELA AND HTE GAME THAT CHANGED A NATION

PLAYING THE ENEMY: NELSON MANDELA AND THE GAME THAT CHANGED A NATION.

:)

moviefreak said...

I'm a little late in my chime in on this post, but I think people counting out Emily Watson in Within The Whirlwind and thinking she doesn't have a chance are being downright silly. This performance actually could be seen by the Academy as a comeback, as she hasn't carried a film in a very long time and this film is all her. Much the way Day-Lewis was in nearly every scene, so will Emily in WTW. It has no distributor but what does that Mean ? Silence Of The Lambs went a long time withoput a distributor and everyone knows about last year and the Slumdog distributor story.
I wouldn't doubt it that they have already had offers, but possibly just feeling out the right one. The filmmakers could snatch a distributor as close to a month before Oscar nominations are announced. Remember the film only has to be released in a few theaters to be considered. The buzz went wild for seeing Emily in that bootleg trailer. If you still have doubts, and remember, put your mind in the way the " voters " think and not you...

1) Popular actress that performance could be viewed as a comeback...ala Mickey Rourke in little movie but lead again.
2) Previously twice nominated actress, well known to the Academy.
3) True story
4) Period piece set throughout a 20 year period.
5) Premise is a true story about a woman who overcame rape attempts, beating's, seeing the awful deaths of friends, and fighting off severe depression by writing poetry. Oscar eats that S up !
6) Thge kicker...she survies and it's a positive and happy ending.

Don' think that's not an Oscar worthy project. And many voters may already be aware of the film and performance by word of mouth. Plus, many like myself, have been waiting a long time to see Emily back in a leading role. Watch when this gets a distributor and see the word of mouth fly just as it did in late winter.
This reminds me of the Julie Christie early talk. People were so convinced that nobody would remember or talk about her performance once the Oscar's were announced. How wrong they were.
The only thing that will not put Emily Watson's name in the hat for Best Actress for this year will be if the they decide to release it on either Showtime or HBO films, like they did with Into The Storm with Brendan Gleeson. If that isn't the case, her name will be in the mix, don't kid yourself. It all matches up too well with what Oscar likes and looks for.

Walter L. Hollmann said...

Just checked out a book from the library. It's "Bright Star: The Story of John Keats and Fanny Brawne" by Joan Rees. Methinks time for a category change?

NATHANIEL R said...

moviefreak. good points all... but i still worry about the film finding any distribution. The distributors are getting less and less brave about the kinds of movies that appeal to very small niches (like unglamourous foreign history bios with non box office names)

walter. really? i had no idea. every oscar site and the IMDB seem to list Campion's film as an original without source material. Maybe people just haven't been digging hard enough. it's true that the film was only mildly talked about before the Cannes opening.

gabrieloak said...

Streep will not win a third Oscar this year for Julie and Julia. She's fine in the film but the part and her performance doesn't have that Oscar weight. Maybe she'll be nominated for the Nancy Meyers film? I just think there's going to be a female dramatic performance in the later part of the year that will more likely win awards.

gabrieloak said...

I saw The Burning Plain in Toronto. This film is going to die at the box office--no awards for Theron and Basinger.

Dan said...

Nathaniel, Within The Whirlwind, most likely probably has already had an offer or two. There is a definite audience for this kind of film ( people that have read the book and history buffs ) & Marleen Gorris more than anyone probably knows she has a performance by Emily that may just be her best.
Also Gorris may be playing possum and coy, and just playing the angles. But she may be weighing the cable option as well, because as of late, Showtime and HBO are getting some pretty good films.
But I think Gorris is a movie fan and knows that Watson has done a special performance and what goes with that is award consideration.
So we may hear nothing all the way until November until they secure a deal. I'm not sweating it and anyway, if the film does get a cable release, Watson is a lock for a Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nomination. The perfect scenario is a theatrical release before 2010 though.

Brian said...

Remember that animators themselves were not all that enamored with Wall E - witness Kung Fu Panda giving it a a roundhouse in the Annie Awards. A robot is not considered as challenging a character to animate as a human or animal, for whatever reason.

Don't know if that had much to do with its failure to break the Best Picture barrier, but if it was a factor at all (I wonder how many voters consult with an animation branch member before putting support behind an animated film) it may be a factor like Adam K's two suggestions for why Up may have stronger chance.

I for one am skeptical of an Up nod in Best Picture. But no more so than I was skeptical of Wall E earning a slot.

Ryan said...

Another year of Eastwood? Gross.

As for the leading ladies, I’d love to see Susie Diamond's name in the mix again- for obvious reasons ☺ and unfortunely… Nathaniel… im thinkin Zellweger’s latest may be to baity to ignore. Now what of Ms. Portman?