Saturday, April 10, 2010

Oscar Predictions, Best Picture & Director

The time has come to put the first predictions for the 10/11 Oscar season on record -- I'm still missing the actors but this takes a while! -- so BEST PICTURE. I would say "we'll laugh about this later" given how little of it will likely come to pass but it's more like I'll giggle about it later. You, the kindly reader, must only remember the parts that do come to pass and promptly forget every blunder. Are you up to this generous challenge?

The Predictions Are All Right?

So, I'm guessing that "The Ten" goes like so
  • Another Year the auteur slot
  • The Fighter they like boxing flicks
  • Inception because Chris Nolan can't be a near miss forever
  • The Kids Are All Right for a popular dramedy
  • The King's Speech sounds like 90s Oscar bait, right?
  • Love and Other Drugs just because
  • Miral for a little global flavor
  • Rabbit Hole because eventually a Broadway transfer will Oscar again
  • Tree of Life for the "epic" slot
  • The Way Back because WW II goes on forever with AMPAS
But you should read the whole line of reasoning right here. I was trying to do a lot of "bait" a healthy scoop of "dramedy", a couple auteur pieces, one potential blockbuster and something epic. But before we've seen the films it's blindfolded pointing. The Best Director page is also up.

As always I'd love to hear your opinions and especially your "wild card" pick and which capital B Baity thing you don't believe in at all as a contender.
*

34 comments:

ZiZo said...

I need to see MIRAL right now.

GLENN CLOSE said...

nathaniel, please finish your Film Bitch Awards 2009, please. I'm not patient anymore!!!!!!

Michael B. said...

Great predictions!

I have a feeling that this could be Weir's year--especially since he's a 4 time nominee.

BUT I think that Mike Leigh could also be the spoiler here. I'm sure many are pissed that Happy-Go-Lucky didn't get into more categories...

Andrew R. said...

My Top 10, alphabetically, which is admittedly offbeat:

Black Swan
Harry Potter 7 Part 1
Inception
It's Kind of a Funny Story
Kids Are All Right
Rabbit Hole
Somewhere
Toy Story 3
Tree of Life

Other Possibilities:
Blue Valentine
Ghost Writer
Scott Pilgrim vs The World (only half joking here)
Shutter Island
Twelve
True Grit
Winter's Bone

stex und johnny walker said...

Hey!
We like your blog, hope you'll continue it.
We're making a Blog 'bout Movies.
It would be great, if you visit our
Blog

jbaker475 said...

My top 10, in no real order:

Black Swan - oh hai Darren, sorry about the waaaaait
The King's Speech - 90s Oscar bait sums it up perfectly
Tree of Life - oh haaaai Terrence, sorry for the longer wait
Inception - see Black Swan and Tree of Life
Miral
The Kids Are All Right
The Way Back
Love and Other Drugs
The Fighter
Toy Story 3

Other Possibilities:
Rabbit Hole
True Grit
Blue Valentine
I am Love (...??) okay...this will probably go the Julia route..

Jake D said...

Can Brad Pitt really be in four BP nominees in five years? (Babel, Benjamin Button, Basterds, Tree of Life.) Is that precedented?

I'm not buying Miral or The King's Speech yet. King's Speech feels too traditionally Baity- as we saw last year, the biggest bait rarely gets bites.

I'm intrigued to see how Rabbit Hole does. Since Doubt may have made the 10 (four acting noms + screenplay seems like it would have been tough to resist) without being great cinema per se, I feel like if Eckhart and Kidman get good notices, it might not be too hard for Rabbit Hole to sneak in.

Danielle said...

I think True Grit, at this point, should be in the top 10. The Coen Bros are really on a great streak, and everything about this screams amazingness. Not sure if Bridges will get back-to-back wins, but another nomination is definitely feasible.

I actually have a gun feeling that The Fighter will bomb. No "real" reason except for a hunch.

At this point I'd say the top 3 to beat are The Way Back, Rabbit Hole, and Tree of Life.

My predictions:

The Way Back
Rabbit Hole
Tree of Life
The Conspirator
Inception
The King's Speech
Miral
Hereafter (not the typical Eastwood flare; I think they'll bite on this one)
True Grit
Somewhere/London Boulevard/Another Year

KT said...

I hope the real "baity" thing that happens is "Mrs. Beatty" getting a golden boy of her own !

Casey said...

interesting, im rooting for tree of life-black swan-inception-the way back-and true grit

Eloise is under a cherry tree said...

My Prediction:

BEST PICTURE:
1. Another Year
2. Biutiful
3. Black Swan
4. Hereafter
5. Inception
6. The Kids are Alright
7. Rabbit Hole
8. Somewhere
9. The Tree of Life
10. The Way Back

BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
2. Christopher Nolan, INCEPTION
3. Sofia Coppola, SOMEWHERE
4. Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE
5. Peter Weir, THE WAY BACK

BEST ACTOR:
1. Javier Bardem, BIUTIFUL
2. Johnny Depp, THE RUM DIARY
3. Stephen Dorff, SOMEWHERE
4. Aaron Eckhart, RABBIT HOLE
5. Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST ACTRESS:
1. Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
2. Anne Hathaway, LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
3. Nicole Kidman, RABBIT HOLE
4. Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
5. Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
2. Vincent Cassel, BLACK SWAN
3. Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
4. Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH
5. Ed Harris, THE WAY BACK

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Jessica Chastain, THE TREE OF LIFE
2. Bryce Dallas Howard, HEREAFTER
3. Barbara Hershey, BLACK SWAN
4. Julianne Moore, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
5. Naomi Watts, YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER

Volvagia said...

To Eloise: Expect Kieran Culkin as a potential spoiler to Supporting Actor, even if Scott Pilgrim gets no other heat. The role may not be "baity" but, in the comics, the character he's playing, Wallace Wells, is a scene stealing delight. Although, Schwartzman's Gideon could also get heat in that category, as the villain of the piece.

James T said...

Thank you once again :)

I can't really say I agree or disagree with anything besides the obvious choices. I just want to say that I hope ANOTHER YEAR is great and gets nominated and even win.

Well, I have to say that I don't get why you're predicting Julian Schnabel.

cinephile said...

Have you seen CHLOE yet? Curious about review + opinion of Moore...

Dylan said...

Why is there no info about It's Kind of a Funny Story?

Michael B. said...

Oh and I just realized that Kidman can get two nominations this year...for producing and acting

That can help her chances of winning incredibly. When was the last time an actress produced herself to a nomination for acting? I don't think it happens often...

moviefreak said...

Those are all good possibilites. Usually one art house type film comes out of nowhere that is a limited release that hardly anyone sees and I think that could be Bela Tarr's The Turin Horse. Supposedly his last film. Micmacs has recieved good word of mouth. It has a noname UK cast, but some people really love it. True Grit has a good chance, just because all who are involved. Get Low may squeeze into the 10 nominations.
I like your director list as well. I'm really feeling that The Way Back is going to be well recieved by people that see it. It's a very interesting true story. Peter Weir is a heck of a solid director and is popular within the Academy as well. Something also has me feeling Betty Anne Waters. Tony Goldwyn could be a name you see. That is a remarkable story no matter how you feel about Hilary Swank. I know I probably couldn't have done that ( what she accomplished )

lawngnome said...

Why do you say the Coen brothers only get Oscar love when they use their own material? Their unarguably most Oscar-successful movie was "No Country" which was an adaptation of McCarthy's novel. From what I've heard about True Grit it's more of a re-adaptation of the novel than a remake of the movie, which puts it in a similar camp as "No Country."

Julian Stark said...

Count me as one who also doesn't see Toy Story 3 getting a Picture nomination. That being said, I think that The Kids Are All Right could take Best Picture. Having seen it, do you think it's got a good shot?

catchaflick215 said...

It's early, but what the heck...

Picture

Another Year
Betty Anne Waters
Fair Game
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
Micamacs
Secretariat
The Tree Of Life
True Grit
The Way Back
( Possibles: 127 Hours, Get Low, The King's Speech, Love and Other Drugs, How Do You Know, Miral, The Turin Horse, The Conspirator )

Actor

Johnny Depp- The Rim Diary
Robert Duvall- Get Low
James Franco- 127 Hours
Mel Gibson- The Beaver
Sean Penn- Fair Game
( Possibles: Paul Giamatti- Barney's Version, Jeff Bridges- True Grit, Jim Broadbent- Another Year, Edward Norton- Leaves Of Grass, Anthony Hopkins as Ernest Hemingway- Hemingway and Fuentes, Jim Sturgess- The Way Back, Colin Firth- The King's Speech, James McAvoy- The Conspirator, Vincent D' Onfofrio- Down and Dirty Pictures, as Harvey Weinstien no less, Matt Damon- Hereafter )

Actress

Annette Bening- Mother and Child
Anne Hathaway- Love and Other Drugs
Diane Lane- Secretariat
Hilary Swank- Betty Anne Waters
Imelda Staunton- Another Year
( Possibles: Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Proof, Renne Zellweger- My Own Love Song, Jodie Foster- The Beaver, Reece Witherspoon- How Do You Know, Naomi Watts- Fair Game, Robin Wright- The Conspirator)

Supporitng Actor

Chistian Bale- The Fighter ( this one is getting him in finally )
Ed Harris- The Way Back
John Malkovich- Secretariat
Bill Murray- Get Low
Sam Rockwell- Betty Anne Waters ( finally gets his first well derserved nod )
( possibles: Forest Whitaker- My Own Love Song, Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech, Kevin Kline- The Conspirator, Dustin Hoffman- Barney's Version, Jack Nicholson- How Do You Know. Category placement confusion on this Jack )

Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning- Somewhere
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Saoirse Ronin- The Way Back
Sissy Spacek- Get Low
Kristin Scott Thomas- Nowhere Boy
( Possibles: Amber Heard- The Rum Diary, Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech, Jessica Chastain The Tree Of Life, Jessia Alba- The Killer Inside Me, Ellen Page- Inception, Bryce Dallas Howard- Hereafter, Mila Kunis- Black Swan, Evan Rachel Wood- The Conspirator )

Director

Tony Goldwyn- Betty Anne Waters
Christopher Nolan- Inception
Terrence Malick- The Tree Of Life
Bela Tarr- The Turin Horse
Peter Weir- The Way Back
( Possibles: The Coen's- True Grit, Clint Eastwood- Hereafter, Jean-Pierre Jeunet- Micmacs, Danny Boyle- 127 Hours, Mike Leigh- Another Year, Doug Liman- Fair Game, Robert Redford- The Conspirator, Jodie Foster- The Beaver, Ed Zwick- Love and Other Drugs, Aaron Schneider- Get Low )

D'Onofrio as Weinstien should be very interesting, same with Hopkins as Ernest Hemingway.
And most people say I'm crazy about Mel Gibson getting a nod for The Beaver. Well, he has never been nominated for an Oscar for an actor in a leading role. The role is so quirky, it just may work. Remember when Jimmy Stewart thought he had a 6 foot invisible rabbit as his best friend in Harvey ? Oscar nomination. If Mel pulls the role off ( and he's a natural at doing comedy ) he has a good shot.
Jim Sturgess is just waiting to break into the next level and he is the lead in The Way Back. Could this be his shot ?
Franco as Aron Ralston, being trapped on the mountain all that time pinned against a boulder, will be like Cast Away on a mountain. No dialogue for nearly an hour, so he'll be asked to emote without words.
All I know this looks like a way better year than last !

Jesus Alonso said...

I got a feeling "Inception" is going to be a massive letdown. I am not confident to put it at the top 10.

Anonymous said...

Haha. I'm pretty sure this comments section is the first and last time that Bela Tarr ever appeared on a list with Oscar predictions. Come on, guys.

Anonymous said...

What if Depp, Bening, Bale and Moore won the Oscar in the same year???

NATHANIEL R said...

anon 9:33... a whole year of OVERDUE wins in each category? goodness. the internet might explode.

notanotherblog said...

Take away Love and Other drugs and Put in Black Swan.

And I can't believe I forgot Nicole Kidman in my predix.

JD said...

i could die of happiness if kidman wins the oscar for best actress and best picture!

x said...

Small nitpick: The films listed under Peter Weir in the best director page are all Terence Malick films.

NATHANIEL R said...

x -- thank you. I fixed it. i copy and paste too often!

rubi-kun said...

My early prediction:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
Love and Other Drugs
Miral
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
The Tree of Life
True Grit

The King's Speech just feels like this year's Nine to me.

Ron Cruz said...

Here's mine:

BEST PICTURE
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Conspirator
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
True Grit
Winter's Bone

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Lisa Chodolenko (The Kids are All Right)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)

Annabelle said...

I love to watch movies which are very popular movies like:

Avatar
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
The Proposal

I love these movies ...

Janice said...

For some reason I'm not quite feeling it when it comes to Rabbit Hole; when I think of "Domestic Dramas" getting the BP nod, what my mind automatically goes to is Ordinary People and Kramer Vs. Kramer, and that was a long time ago. (Or maybe I'm just dating myself? I've already forgotten what film won BP last month.)

On the other hand, the contrast between Cameron's "Hedwig" and RH could be just the sort of thing that makes AMPAS takes notice (a la "I didn't know he could do that sort of thing, too!") AMPAS likes talent+versatility, to a degree. (It's worked for the Coen Bros. I'm guessing that if Quentin Tarention had followed up Pulp Fiction with something completely different, a straight drama perhaps, rather than sticking to his "style", he might have gotten an Oscar already.)

I'd forgotten that Kidman is a producer on that film.

Janice said...

Oh and I'm hoping that all the love that TKAA is getting here pans out. I'm looking forward to seeing it at any case. (Annette as a soft butch lesbian? Perfect.)

GoldDropsofBlood said...

Nathaniel, I just wanted to mention one potential issue with your predictions: the expansion was designed to bring about variety and more popular films. All but "Inception" are kind of Oscar bait, and most of them don't look like box office powerhouses. Remember three of this year's nods cleared $200 M dollars at the box office.