Saturday, September 11, 2010

Actress & Supporting Actress. So Many Oscar Questions

I've finished updating the acting charts. Just in time for Toronto so they might need fresh updates any second now as more reviews and hoopla hits.

I've opted to completely overhaul BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS which is a total cloudy mess. Beyond arguably Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone), Sissy Spacek (Get Low) and the Nowhere Boy women (Kristin Scott Thomas and Anne Marie Duff who have been kicking around festivals and international release for a year with this film), no one has yet proven their viability. It's all just assumptions about the films, their roles and the overall traction potential. Given that none of those women have yet laid claim to a super excited committed fanbase except Jacki Weaver, I've pushed her into predictions. In a wide open field this late in the game, a committed fanbase who have been beating your drum for seven months already will surely help. "Sweetie," I don't want to overstate the point and sound like I've built a "Jacki Weaver for the gold!" shrine in my living room, but it's the type of film-seizing performance that gets nominated -- period -- with a threat to win, if voters see the film. A mighty big "if" I'm fully aware.


Questions. I'd love to hear your answers
  • Do you think The Kids Are All Right can hog 40% of the BEST ACTRESS category?
  • Do you buy the category placements of Halle Steinfeld and Lesley Manville?
  • Which of these performances are you most excited about sight unseen?
  • Do you have any suspicions about who might actually win? (I don't!)
  • Do you think they'll just give up on supporting actress and nominate this field based on the Best Picture candidates?
  • Do you think the acting in Black Swan can win favor, even if they don't love the film?
  • So many release dates are up in the air. Who won't we see until next fall/winter?

59 comments:

Sean D said...

You're so right on Jacki Weaver. If there's any FYC campaign, any massive mailing of DVDs to AMPAS members, she's in. And I agree, a threat to win. She's just so damn good in it.

A question I have though, is do you think a campaign for Jacki Weaver could translate into a campaign for Ben Mendelssohn? I mean, if people are seeing the film, couldn't his nomination also be possible? He's really great as well, and has a wicked baity role in a category that favors psychopaths.

Robert Hamer said...

To answer your questions:

Yes, if and only if the other hopefuls fall through. Taking just your current predictions, I could easily see Manville, Hathaway, Swank and Portman missing the cut due to lack of living up to expectations or simple marketing.

Manville, yes. Steinfeld, no.

I see Bening really building strong momentum. Supporting actress, however...*shrugs*.

I don't think so. Unlike the other acting categories, AMPAS tends to be more idiosyncratic with their choices.

No. The film itself will have to catch on if the actors have any hope.

I'm not good with release date predix.

Danielle said...

--Yes - Moore's on the bubble for me right now
--Manville can go either way and it wouldn't really be "omg fraud!," but Steinfeld seems leading to me
--Portman, Knightley, Kidman, Bonham Carter
--Bening for BA and HBC for BSA (I can't believe how wide open SA is, but this is my guess for now until more reviews come out)
--Perhaps... I can see a double nom for Leo + Adams if The Fighter goes well
--Portman's raves seem too hard to ignore, but it's early and the backlash could start
--We better see Rabbit Hole this year.

okinawaassault said...

Will Manville be the token 'Oscars are cool' nominee. I was really hoping that Jennifer Lawrence would have a bigger chance to that.

And am I the only one who's optimistic about distribution for Rabbit Hole this year. For some reason, I got the impression that it's coming out in November. I just finished reading the play, and the role fits her like a glove, which is both good and bad.

/3rtfu11 said...

Annette Bening
Annette Bening
Annette Bening
Annette Bening 4th time for the charm!

I think Jennifer Lawrence (sight unseen) will be this year’s Sally Hawkins.

Scott said...

I'd think Wiest, Fanning, or one of the women of Black Swan might have more of a shot than Spacek. I know they love Spacek, but I could totally see Black Swan breaking through in acting, and Wiest is Wiest. I can't wait to see either of those movies (or Somewhere).

Btw, do you see Weaver's turn like Tilda Swinton's in Julia last year? That also seemed very, "if people see it, she's nominated."

Danielle said...

Oh, and why do you have Mulligan so low? I don't think she'll get nominated (too much competition + NLMG is getting very mixed reactions), but I thought she'd be in your top 10.

Billy Bob said...

The marvellous Miranda Richardson has been picking up rave reviews (
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/movies/12breakthrough.html) in Toronto for her supporting turn in MADE IN DAGENHAM, and so I was wondering why Miranda is nowhere to be seen on your list. Do you think Miranda, or indeed the film, have even the slightest chance?

The Dude said...

I'm actually quite curious about two of your predictions: You have Secretariat up for Best Picture, yet you ignored Lane. Why? I've always thought that it's the type of film that if it got any Oscar attention, the two categories would be hogged along together.

Michael said...

Based on what you said for Jacki Weaver, I'm surprised you didn't apply that for Jennifer Lawrence. If her film stays in the spotlight (and people have been mentioning more of it than I could have ever guessed), I'd say she's safer than Natalie Portman. And based on what Sissy Spacek actually has to do in Get Low (practically nothing... what a throwaway part!) and the fact that they're less in love with her than we like to think, I'd say she's no where near close for a nomination. I think Keira Knightley could get a nomination.

Billy Bob said...

Back again, to hammer home my point haha! Kristopher Tapley said this of Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham:

For starters I’d like to mention this: Miranda Richardson may finally nail down the Oscar win many of us have desperately wanted to see her wrangle for years. If nothing else she’s on a clear track for a nomination. The actress is on fire as Barbara Castle, the Labor party Baroness who bravely threw her weight behind female Ford factory workers demanding equal pay in an unfair system, and at a time when it was raging against a fierce tide to do so. The supporting actress category is ripe for the taking this year and Richardson’s is exactly the kind of commanding, bold, yet humorous turn voters love to recognize.

http://incontention.com/?p=28391

cal roth said...

Let's talk about the winners. It's all about timing, and people think Bening is overdue, no matter what I think about this assumption (haha). I see no competition for the win, really (and Moore, who is equally overdue will not win for a comedy, no way).

Supporting: We have not seen the movie yet, but wouldn't Amy Adams have the right timing for the win? Third nomination, young and beautiful, and a very talented actress... It just feels the right moment for her.

cal roth said...

L O V E The Clint in the banner. I haven't noticed. Thank you.

joe burns said...

I think all the predicted women are interesting, especially Manville.


As for Benning, I found her good, but nowhere near Oscar-worthy. Moore should easily be nominated- She had a much more difficult role and did a lot more with it. I'm surprised you didn't praise her when you placed her as an alternate: Did you like her?

Aaron said...

All of you are on crack who think Bening and/or Moore will receive Best Actress nominations for The Kids are all Right. Yes, I believe Bening has the most likely chance for a nomination, but in no way do I think she will win! I thought the film was good, but it didn't really live up to its hype, imo (and it seems to be many other people's opinion, too, since it has dwindled at the box office).

I think Natalie Portman is a safe bet for actress, regardless of the reviews for the film. She's very respected and well-liked in the business, and I think this role will lead to a nomination. I'm prediction Michelle Williams will land a nomination for Blue Valentine, along with Lesley Manville for Another Year and Anne Hathaway for Love and Other Drugs (she will most likely be this year's golden globe best actress musical/comedy winner, and I have a feeling she will land easily in the race), and I guess Bening will round out the best actress nominees, although I think she is iffy...

Anonymous said...

I think that Julianne Moore will be campaigned as supporting. WHAT!!!! everyone just gasped! lol. But look at Jennifer hudson and Jake Gyllenhaal. Hell George Clooney for that matter. it can happen. I think she will end up there.

Yavor said...

I just saw the Kids are All Right and absolutely LOVED IT, I thought it would be just kinda interesting with some strong acting, but the movie was SUPER GOOD!!!

I don't know if both of them can get a leading nom and I'm not sure which one I liked more.

While Julianne was boring in the beginning of the movie she really developed her character better and became more and more interesting, Bening was perfect throughout but probably a little bit one-dimensional. I also think Moore had more screen time, am I correct?

I totally know Portman is getting nominated. Fiction or no fiction it's Portman, she's only 29 but she's been acting forever, everybody knows her and last but not least, it's Darren Aronofsky!!!

I don't think Anne Hathaway or Hillary Swank will be nominated.

I'm dying to see Kidman in Rabbit Hole and want her to be nominated :P

and I haven't started caring about Supporting Actress yet.

Cheers

The Pretentious Know it All said...

I think Jennifer Lawrence is in. I know the film is small and I certainly understand the hesitance to predict her, but my thinking is that once critics groups start announcing, she'll be back in the conversation in a big way. She's a surefire contender for breakthrough citations (NBR, most notably), which do help. I just feel like in a year that has birthed few real stunners (and even less female-helmed greatness), that the critics will take care of Winter's Bone come year's end.

I agree that Annette Bening is pretty much in and I could see her taking it home if no other contenders (for the win, I mean) materialize in a big way. She's a previous nominee. The big question mark for me is Natalie Portman, who I could also see winning if awards season does a full-tilt boogie embrace of Black Swan. I'm guessing that it'll be all or nothing, a la Zodiac for how that film is received, Oscar-wise. Even if it is great, I'm pessimistic because if David Fincher (and probably Christopher Nolan this year) has taught us anything, it's that the visionary auteurs, even the pseudo-visionary auteurs are invited to the AMPAS party for diluted suggestions of their greatest work (Paul Thomas Anderson, notwithstanding) and Black Swan seems anything but.

Danny King said...

The Supp. Actress field is a mess. When I saw the "Black Swan" trailer, I had a gut feeling that Mila Kunis would end up in the awards game. After her award at Venice, it is probable that she will?

Alex said...

I was thinking the other day that Bening will probably go supporting for "Mother and Child" a la George Clooney in "Syriana." If she does, there's nothing stopping her from a win (Dianne Wiest can't get 3, it's obvious they just don't like Bonham Carter, Weaver is in a foreign indie), and it's easier to justify than a push in supporting for "The Kids Are All Right" (and why would that happen anyway? She's clearly the frontrunner for Best Actress...)

Caroline said...

I feel like half of the people who posted were drunk or on crack.

Glenn said...

I see Lesley Manville - as much as I'd love to see her as an Oscar nominee, she's great and I'm sure she's great in Another Year - perhaps falling victim to the Scarlett Johansson/Naomi Watts "is she lead/is she supporting" debate and ending up a no show. The fact that she's so little known in America could hurt her (although, it could also prove a boon to her campaign as a "let's honour an unknown around all these famous faces" type of thing - gah, who knows).

Loving the Jacki Weaver prediction. You're so right though, it's hard to picture people not placing her name on the list if they actually see the movie. Animal Kingdom is most definitely a screener movie since many voters would be more likely to pop it on the dvd player after a quick scan of Rotten Tomatoes and realising "oh, maybe I'll give this one a try instead of Conviction". I hope so. She deserves it.

I still reckon Rabbit Hole could be the game changer if it's as good as all hope. Nothing like a morose drama to really throw people for a loop of overly hysteric raves.

Stefano said...

- I don't see both of the Kids women nominated for Best Actress... Annette Bening will surely be nominated for Best Actress, but I think that the only chance for Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress category (unless she'll be a victim of the category confusion). I'd prefer to see Bening as the only nominee for Best Actress, she'll have bigger chances for her overdue win.

- I suppose Lesley Manville will end up being nominated for Best Actress (maybe she'll be the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama Actress and surely she'll be the next BAFTA winner). But if she goes supporting, she could easily become the frontrunner in this category.

- I really really hope that fourth time will be the right one for Annette Bening!!! She's sooo overdue for a win and she's been considered the frontrunner since the beginning of 2010. I would be extremely happy if she finally gets the Oscar she deserved... it's her time!!!

- Supporting Actress is a mess at the moment. The only one I see as a sure contender is Helena Bonham Carter for "The King's Speech"... and maybe she could even win, if the movie is a big player in the award-season. And I'd love to see Miranda Richardson and/or Kristin Scott Thomas nominated in this category, it's been a long long time since these two wonderful ladies have been invited at the Oscars and I so want to see them rewarded!

- Natalie Portman is probably going to be nominated for "Black Swan" (although I don't see her winning). And I've got the feeling that Mila Kunis has a great chance to be nominated as Best Supporting Actress (but only if it turns out as a weak category). We'll see...

- Robin Wright and Nicole Kidman are actually up in the air. I suspect one of them could see her film being pushed to 2011.

dinasztie said...

Somehow I feel good about Jacki Weaver. She might be the Mo'Nique of the year or that's just what I feel.

Bening is not going to win in my opinion. And if Julianne Moore is nominated she will most definitely win. She wasn't nominated for A Single Man. I see it as a sign that she will be nommed when they want to give her the win. I think she will eventually win Best Actress.

Yavor said...

let me interfere and say that Annette Bening is not overdue for anything, she did not give the best performance in 1999 and she was definitely not better than Kidman (Birth), Imelda (Vera Drake) and Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine) in 2004. If she wins this time I'm not sure whether I'll be OK with it, I'm yet to see all the other contenders in the making. But Bening and Overdue are two words that don't go hand in hand.

Jamie said...

Bening will be next year's Bullock. Swank won't get nominated.

Cal said...

I'd actually go ahead and suggest the unthinkable -- a third Best Actress Oscar for Swank -- if Bening wasn't looking so strong for a nomination. I think Annette has a bigger shot of winning if Swank is nominated, given that she's lost twice to her already.

Natalie Portman will probably be nominated and win the Drama Globe, and if they give the Comedy prize to someone like Christina Aguilera in Burlesque (totally possible), then she'd have the upper hand in terms of winning the eventual Oscar. It's completely not an Oscar-y role, but I'm struggling to make a case for anybody else winning beyond Bening and maybe Kidman.

Andrew R. said...

1. Nope, I think they'll stick Moore in Supporting.
2. I think Manville is Supporting and so is Steinfeld. And I also think Manville has a reasonable chance of winning.
3. Black Swan and Another Year.
4. For Lead, I'm currently predicting a Bening/Portman showdown. For Supporting...the race is so open I could see Marion Cotillard winning. (Actually, that would make sense considering the Nine snub.)
5. Nope, once the films come out we'll see who's good and who sucks.
6. Portman, yes. Kunis...she did win that award, but doubtful. Hershey, no way. (I really don't see why she's in the Top 10.)
7. I don't think Rabbit Hole is going to get released until next year.

And here are my predictions:
LEAD: Bening, Portman, Lawrence, Hathaway, Watts
S. ACTRESS: Bonham-Carter, Manville, Fanning, Weaver, Cotillard. (Cotillard is my "I know this probably won't happen, but oh well" prediction. I also have big doubts about Weaver.)

NATHANIEL R said...

Billy Bob -- that's so interesting about Miranda. She's third billed in the press release but the 3 paragraph synopsis of the film never again mentions her and describes 9 other characters :) curious. i wonder if it's a big showy tiny part?

Billy Bob said...

Haha yes I know. I spoke to somebody that saw the film yesterday, and they say that she was actually in it a fair amount. Not as much as Sally Hawkins, obviously, but a fair amount nevertheless. I guess she's not really mentioned in the press release because to divulge too much information about the character would ruin the ending of the film. Her big scenes are the end of Made in Dagenham, as the character (Barbara Castle) manages to secure equal pay for women.

bluee_moon87 said...

Here's my take on the Oscar Best Actress Race for 2010, which is so damn competitive right now. Fk Hilary Swank and sorry Anne Hathaway, its not your year.

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are Alright
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
However...the last slot is tricky...
I'll say its either Michelle Williams for either of her work in Blue Valentine or Meeks Cutoff, or Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole.

waddaya tink Nathaniel?

Amanda said...

Nathaniel, why are you so skeptical and have so little faith on a nomination for Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine? Every single review I have read for the movie says she is nothing short of brilliant and superb and that her work is jaw dropping amazing.

Why do you think she wont be nominated?

K.A. said...

Nathaniel what do you think the chances are of mila limos getting a stab at the supporting category?

K.A. said...

Nathaniel what do you think the chances are of mila limos getting a stab at the supporting category?

SoSueMe said...

I haven't even seen Another Year...but for some strange reason I think Manville should be in the supporting race...along with Jacki Weaver, Helena Bonham Carter, Miranda Richardson, Dianne Wiest, Dale Dickey and Barbara Hershey. Also would love to see the actresses from The Fighter and For Colored Girls vying for spots in this category.

Although I love The Bening, I would love to see an across-the-board young Hollywood ingenue Best Actress Race:

Jennifer Lawrence
Natalie Portman
Carey Mulligan
Anne Hathaway
Michelle Williams
alt. Sally Hawkins (is she an ingenue?)

Natalie or Michelle for the win!

K.A. said...

Sorry meant Kunis

Yavor said...

my early April predictions were as follows:

NICOLE KIDMAN Rabbit Hole
JENNIFER LAWRENCE Winter's Bone
JULIANNE MOORE The Kids Are All Right
MICHELLE WILLIAMS Blue Valentine
IMELDA STAUNTON Another Year (what I wild guess this was, I figured he'd want to give her another bombastic role)

AND
my predictions pre-TIFF are as follows:

NICOLE KIDMAN Rabbit Hole (cuz I desperately want her in)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE Winter's Bone
MICHELLE WILLIAMS Blue Valentine (it's not just her, it's Gosling as well, if there's hype for either of them, the other one's gonna follow with a nom for sure)
NATALIE PORTMAN Black Swan
ANNETTE BENING Kids Are All Right (I wanna put in Julianne Moore somehow, don't know why, but I won't)

I also think Marion C. has a chance at snatching a Supporting Actress slot. She was playing a SAD & DRAMATIC role for the 1231655th time, but she's good at it.

Alex said...

Watched "The American President" last night and it just makes me root for Bening even more. As of now, my predictions are:

BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
2. Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs)
3. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
4. Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
5. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
alt. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lesley Manville (Another Year)
2. Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole)
3. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
4. Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
5. Marion Cotillard (Inception)
alt. Elle Fanning (Somewhere)

NATHANIEL R said...

Amanda -- i loved her in the film but, how shall i put this, it's not exactly a "likeable" role... those who didn't respond to the film claimed it was too one sided coming down on Ryan Gosling's side. And it's also a small basically two character film and I just find it hard to believe it'll get enough attention around new year's time -- it's very depressing (though very good) and not sure a holiday week release is a good idea at all.

seems more like a critical darling to me than an actual awards contender. But i loved it personally.

KA i really doubt it. If the Academy is at all turned off by the movie's flamboyance (they like a more watered down approach at the pretentious...rightly suggests) then the only one with a prayer is Natalie Portman since she's already a past nominee and the showy lead.

SoSueMe do we ever get all anything years? it's usually a mix. I can see where they might need new blood (it does get awfully tiresome when they only seem to know the names of about 25 actors at any given time but the frustration of that is usually cut by the knowledge that the 25 shifts. When one group of "defaults" is out of favor the next will rise up ;)

MikeM said...

-I don't see Julianne Moore being nominated for TKAAR. At least not in lead, which promises to be crowded with contenders in more conventionally Oscar-bait films.
-I'm very excited to see Helena Bonham Carter in a non-fantasy film generating awards buzz, but I'm still not sure about her Oscar prospects, given my suspicion that AMPAS just isn't into her. I mean, if you can't win for a performance as sensational as hers in The Wings of the Dove, and can't even get nominated for Howards End...
-I think people are overestimating Swank in Conviction and underestimating Lane in Secretariat. The former is so inconsistent and in a film that could easily flop, while the latter is a veteran actress in a film that could become a huge hit and really click with older Academy members.
-I'm tentatively waging that Portman will be the only Black Swan actor nominated.

Bigger Penis said...

Based on what you said for Jacki Weaver, I'm surprised you didn't apply that for Jennifer Lawrence. If her film stays in the spotlight (and people have been mentioning more of it than I could have ever guessed), I'd say she's safer than Natalie Portman. And based on what Sissy Spacek actually has to do in Get Low (practically nothing... what a throwaway part!) and the fact that they're less in love with her than we like to think, I'd say she's no where near close for a nomination. I think Keira Knightley could get a nomination.

NATHANIEL R said...

Bigger -- i don't know why i'm so doubtful about Jennifer Lawrence. Maybe it's that it seems more like the type of performance that sets you up for good roles and future Oscar contention more than it actually delivers Oscar race excitement. but maybe i'm wrong. like for instance, i can't imagine her winning under any circumstance but i can imagine Weaver winning if enough voters watch the film.

Anonymous said...

My predictions for Best Actress:

1. Annette Bening - The Kids are All Right: The possible frontrunner
2. Natalie Portman - Black Swan: Previous Nominee + Starlet + Long career with veterans
3. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone: Breakthough Performance + Deglam + X-Men effect (I hope not in Halle Berry case)

And for the last two spots:

4. 20s previous Oscar Nominee: Between Anne Hathaway, Michelle Williams and Carey Mulligan. Now, I support Anne Hathaway but I wouldn't be surprised if any of three did make it.
5. Feel Good movie lead -Also Real character-: That place belongs to Sally Hawkins, Diane Lane and Hilary Swank. Thank God Swank's reviews aren't exactly the best and the film is average. Lane is a veteran and is supported by Disney and Hawkins is a Norma Rae type of role in a British film. I think both actresses will be nominated by the Globes in the drama category, I think hawkins has more advantage by "Happy-Go-Lucky" snub.

For Best Supporting Actress:

1. Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech: This is the only sure bet candidate.
2. Marion Cotillard - Inception: This category is wide open (More than expected) so I think Cotillard did make it because: a. Inception support by the Oscars; b. Last year horrible snub; c. Great reviews for her performance; d. The best of the ensemble and e. No clear nominees or faves in this category. Now, I'm sure than Cotillard chances are better than before.
3. Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom: If she's in the running, she could be the critics fave but she's big chances of being ignored.
4. One of For Colored Girls gals: According with many sources Janet Jackson and Thandie Newton have the showiest roles but Rashad is a veteran
5. Free Spot: Anyone could make it

This year the female categories are more exciting than male categories

Anonymous said...

Bigerpenis, I think Knightley chances depends of Mulligan luck, if Mulligan make it Knightley could be along with her, if Mulligan is ignored so Knightley. Yes, Knightley received good reviews but not exactly great and also she received a lot of criticism.

Jackal said...

Why is Swank in your top 5? All of the reviews from Conviction say that the only possible nominee i the film is Sam Rockwell, so I think she's out. So apparently is Robin Wright, the biggest buzz for The Conspirator is for James McAvaoy.

I think Best Actress will be:
Annette Bening
Natalie Portman
Jennifer Lawrence
?
?

Carey Mulligan and Naomi Watts aar possibilities, as are Kidman and Hathaway.

Jacki Weaver, Julianne Moore, Lesley Manville, Miranda Richardson and Mila Kunis (outside chance) will all be supporting.

/3rtfu11 said...

Although I love The Bening, I would love to see an across-the-board young Hollywood ingenue Best Actress Race

Ingénues the most over valued group of actresses in all of Hollywood. They’re better off taking prizes from character actresses in the supporting category than besting legends for the lead race.

More Marisa Tomei(s) less Hilary Swank(s)

/3rtfu11 said...

Speaking of Tomei – Can Fox Searchlight get her a 4th supporting actress nomination for Cyrus?

Aaron said...

Oh god, I loved Marisa Tomei in Cyrus! I actually thought the film was great, I'm surprised it hasn't received as much praise as it deserved or stronger word-of-mouth. Tomei gives a totally likeable and complex performance and she's sexy as hell in it (even with that disturbing, perm/mop hairdo she has in it).

Michael said...

Hey! "Bigger" stole my post. But I can't say I disagree with him then...

IslandLiberal said...

I can't see anyone from "Inception" getting acting nominations. Great film, but not really the sort that generates them.

NATHANIEL R said...

you know what i find weird... that so many of you think my predictions from the day before should reflect reviews coming out from TODAY.

also: i think it's very important to remember the first wave of reviews from festivals do not necessarily mean: CONSENSUS. we've seen it year after year after year that this is not always the case.

these things are fluid,

but as for WHY SWANK? i'll say that Oscar obviously loves her about a trillion times more than i ciould ever understand so i sometimes look at her chances and think: this is not about your opinion and this 5-wide group is too much what you like. so put someone you DONT like in. And that'd be Swank.

It's very very very rare that an Oscar race will contain 5 actresses Nathaniel loves --- so a predicted lineup consisting of BENING, MOORE, PORTMAN, HATHAWAY MANVILLE and/or HAWKINS seems inconceivable because i love all of them ;)

NATHANIEL R said...

islandliberal -- agreed. i would be *very* surprised if Inception can manage an acting nomination at all... even at the precursors.

Glenn said...

Also, I'm sure she's only a one-scene cameo, but Jenifer Lewis in Hereafter looks very strong and if she's actually in more than the trailer suggests she could get support (she IS in an Eastwood film and there might be no other major black performer getting big enough buzz.)

...hmmm...

Anonymous said...

Well, glenn, if the first reviews means something Hereafter has zero awards traction.

O.K. maybe is more a wish; but again, the supporting actress is a mess -In a good way- and without Bonham Carter, we don't have yet a clear nominee. If Inception is likely for received Oscar Nominations and precursors so Cotillard would be a domino effect.

adam k. said...

I really think both TKAA women will make it. It would feel very wrong for only Annette Bening to be nominated, I think. Moore's part was bigger and, I think, more challenging. Bening was excellent, but not appreciably better than Moore, I don't think, who had a very different job. I don't think Bening was that much better just because she was more convincing as a conventional lesbian. I also think it would be weird if she won. This is a situation where I really think both deserve to be nominated and neither deserves to win over the other (rather like Thelma & Louise, although I thought they should've BOTH won).

It's really Ruffalo I'd be upset to see snubbed, though.

I think Lead Actress will be Bening, Moore, Portman, Hathaway, and either Manville, Kidman, Lawrence, or someone else, depending on what happens.

In my personal esteem, Swinton towers over all the rest, though (so far).

adam k. said...

Wow, I just read that and realized how many times I typed "I think" and "I don't think", and I got very embarrassed...

/3rtfu11 said...

2 Best Actress wins --- and yet Hilary Swank isn’t Ingrid Bergman or Katharine Hepburn.
Why would the Academy bother?

If they keep wasting Oscars on her their wallets will continue to hurt because this actress brings them no money at the box office. She’s not even America’s Sweetheart. She’s an underdog with horse teeth leaning well against Hollywood’s liberal guilt.

Say what you want about Sandra Bullock but she was very good for the industry’s bottom line and was handsomely rewarded for it.

sp said...

Nathaniel , I love how unbelievably competitive Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories are this year. I have never seen this type of Oscar buzzing and award anticipation be so damn intense. 2010 has been a great year for female actors.

fbh said...

Adam K. -- just had to write in to say how much I agree with you ...especially the Tilda comment. This pure thespian will get snubbed two years in a row; her work on Julia was better than all of the best actresses from the previous year and I Am Love deserves to be in these actress talks just as much as anyone else.

As much as I love both Bening and Moore (especially the latter), I would be a little upset if they won for these parts because they have been (and, predictably, will be) better in other films.