Friday, August 01, 2008

August Oscar Revisions

Next month the Oscar game gets a smidgeon less theoretical when the Toronto International Film Festival hits and people actually begin to (GASP) see the movies in question rather than just thinking about them.


Until then one last quick rethink of Oscar nomination possibilities. Only had time for big 8 categories -- I'm off to DC for a few days for an off-writing gig. I leave you in the capable hands of JA, Jonathan and Robert.

41 comments:

Robert said...

I can only think of 3 movies I feel confident about. Gonna be an interesting awards season.

Changeling
Milk
Miracle at St. Anna

Casey Fiore said...

I have to disagree none of those three are guaranteed much. Changeling I think will be in the mix but I'll bet St. Anna doesn't get much at all. the movies that I think will definately pull some noms are:
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Australia
The Dark Knight
Defiance
...
I can definately see Milk bombing but I hope it doesn't. I just wasn't very impressed by the trailer for St. Anna. I'm also really pulling for The Road... But Nathaniel, seriously, don't you think it's about time to lock that BSA spot for Ledger?

Billy D said...

They seem to really like Kiera Knightley--are we completely "doubt"ing The Dutchess? She looks great in the trailers.

Murnau said...

Not enough time to really get into this but my wild guesses are:

1. Milk
2. Changeling
3. Revolutionary Road
4. Defiance
5. Australia

Longshots:

The Dark Knight
Grand Turismo
The Soloist
Body of Lies
Frost/Nixon

Jolie is a semi-lock for Actress (we will, of course have to see the performance.), Ledger a lock for supporting. Everything else is up in the air.

jaydawg2089 said...

Whoo! I know it's completely guess work and that it'll never happen but I LOVE seeing Gary Oldman at #24 for Supporting Actor.

I'm also glad to see you're considering some Burn After Reading in Malkovich, McDormand, and Pitt.

Anonymous said...

Top Five:

1. The Curious Case of B. B.- At this point is my forntrunner
2. Milk- A biopic is always in consideration, but how controversial is that film?. SAG Ensemble Lock?
3. Changeling- It's Clint Eastwood. I don't need any more words
4. The Dark Knight-I think is too big to ignore. Plus for high ratings
5. The Road- The last spot (I guess) is between RR and this. I choose this because is Corman McCarthy adaptation and a huge coverage

In the running:

6. Revolutionary Road- It's in post production since a year ago and we don't know anything about this film
7. Defiance- Excelent reviews since test screeners, but it's enough?
8. Australia- Entusiasmic reviews but beside my adversion to Luhrmann and I hate the trailer, only Moulin Rouge! was Oscar love.
9. The Soloist- The synopsis is meh, but that film could be the surprise of the season
10.Miracle at St. Anna- The trailer didn't convince at all...

In the lymbo- "The Reader". The film will have an Oscar Nomination for Best Picture but when? 2008 or 2009?.

Lead Actor: DiCaprio, Mortensen, Neeson, Penn and Pitt. Longshot: Del Toro (When the real release?), Foxx, Jenkins, Langhella and Neeson.

LEad Actress: Hathaway, Jolie, Leo, Streep, Winslet. Longshot: Hawkins, Linney, Moore, Okonedo and Portman

Supp Actor: Butler henry, Milk's guy, Ledger, Schreiber and Smit-McPhee. longshot: Downey jr., Malkovich, Pitt, Shannon and Sheen.

Supp Actress: Cruz, Davis, Henson, McDormand and Winger. Longshot: Adams, Bates, Blanchett, Farmiga and Upham

RahulB said...

I'm still wishing/hoping/praying for an intense amount of love for Wall-E.

Everyone kind of forgot that it was (and still is) the best movie of the summer...thus far.

Maybe The Mummy 3 will usurp some crowns.r

mrripley said...

i have a feeling that the supposed big hitters may fall at the final hurdle a la jolie last year so for now here it goes.

streep
leo
hawkins
theron
jolie

i left winslet off because of the reader undecided fate if she is in i would leave her off in lead for r/road and put her in support for the reader and for the win.

something tells me theron maybe winning a 2nd oscar in support for the road just a hunch but she will have been in 5 film by years end and it must do her some good and winger and basinger are comeback kids both sure to be nommed if their leads are and i feel hathaway is this years comedy g/globe winner.

Hayden said...

But Theron's role in The Road couldn't be any more than like, five minutes. Could it? And it scares me that it's 100% flashback. Hmmm.

Anyway, I'm happy to see you've moved Hathaway back into your top five. The trailer for Rachel Getting Married dropped recently (check my blog for a link) and she looks phenomenal.

Transvestitia Transvestitenstein said...

I say Theron for the Road too, as she's always impressive playing completely devestated characters.
i also rfead somewhere that her part is kinda streched out, but i could be wrong...

Sean Knight said...

knightsrantsontheatrefilmacting.blogspot.com/

go visit it!

adam k. said...

Revolutionary Road is at least locked in for a few nods, what with it being so baity and everyone below Sam Mendes being so very overdue. I'm talking about Kate, Leo, Roger Deakins and Thomas Newman. I think their huge reputations will get them in without too much trouble. And the art direction and costumes aren't far behind. But it remains to be seen whether the sheer # of noms will be enough to foist in into best pic territory (that didn't work for Road to Perdition).

Milk I think looks good cause it seems like just the right amount of bait, without going overboard (the gay angle will keep it interesting). It feels like the Capote of this year (even though Capote never looked so good this far out).

Dark Knight also feels like a good bet. Rachel Getting Married seems like the closest thing to a Sideways/Little Miss Sunshine/Juno, but I'm not feeling it for any more than acting/writing (if that). I'm also not confident in Australia for some reason. Benjamin Button feels to quirky to me even for a nomination, certainly not a win, and Doubt is a giant question mark.

Doesn't it feel like there's no real, potential WINNER on the horizon? Unless RR exceeds its own hype, which will be hard.

Rural Juror said...

Is Nothing but the Truth coming out this year? I thought I heard it was 2009 now.

Anonymous said...

Having seen Appaloosa, I can safely say Renee Zellweger shouldn't be mentioned in terms of Oscar Buzz, even if you have her at around 15 or 16. The film is good, but won't be nominated for a single Academy Award.

Eric said...

I agree with Casey Fiore...

LOCK LEDGER'S SPOT UP!

NATHANIEL R said...

You can't lock Ledger's spot up just yet because there is already debate about which category people will vote for him in. But yeah... he's the most likely acting nominee SOMEWHERE yet this year.

And Adam... Revolutionary Road is not locked for anything. Locks are the most overstated thing in Oscar discussion. Especially when a film is still four months+ away from its opening. Anything could happen.

Casey Fiore said...

I suppose that is a good point Nathaniel

Anonymous said...

My predictions are:

Best Picture:
Australia
Milk
The curious case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Changeling

Best Director:
Baz Luhrmann
Clint Eastwood
Sam Mendes
Chris Nolan
Ron Howard

Best Actor:
Sean Penn
Leonardo DiCaprio
Benicio Del Toro
Daniel Craig
Viggo Mortensen
(can´t decide between Craig, Penn, Mortensen)

Best Actress:
Nicole Kidman
Julianne Moore
Laura Linney
Penelope Cruz
Meryl Streep

Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger
Robert Downey Jr.
Russell Crowe
Brad Pitt
Javier Bardem
(it probably will be the year for Heath, although Russell would deserve the Oscar as well)

Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett
Miranda Richardson
Renée Zelwegger
Penelope Cruz
Emma Thompson

17 Year Old Blogger said...

I have a feeling that Jackman will surprise and get a nomination. When people talk about Australia, Baz and Kidman are the first that come to mind, which will help Jackman. And plus, he's well loved in the business. (He has a Tony, an Emmy...) Jackman also is going to be classic Hollywood. He has that aura about him, which is why I'm predicting a Best Actor Nom. And possibly even a win.

Glenn said...

I would love for Jackman to join to the ranks of people who have an Oscar/Tony/Emmy/Grammy.

I love that Anon has three of his/her acting predix as Australians and one Brit.

John T said...

I don't think that anyone can talk locks in any of the big eight at this point, with the possible exception of Ledger, who is a near-lock. Revolutionary Road and Milk could both go the way of other prestige pics like The Majestic or Memoirs of a Geisha or any number of good-on-paper nominees who disappear.

Right now, the only real locks are things like Wall-E's nod in Best Animated Feature and Sound Effects Editing.

Anonymous said...

I agree that we can't tell until we see the movie. It's so HARD having to backpedal when one of our favorites on paper turns out to be kind of lackluster in reality.

I'd agree that Hugh Jackman should have a good shot. He's a consistently good actor, and this should be an excellent showcase role. I think great care will have been taken with all aspects of this movie. There aren't many actors like Jackman around, that have the range and appeal to do a sweeping romantic epic (where the hero is an adult, not a teenager).

My guess at this time for Best Actor:
- Hugh Jackman
- Viggo Mortensen
- Frank Langella
- Sean Penn
- Brad Pitt

It's the Best Actress that's starting to look really up in the air to me, like anything could happen.

Murnau said...

Thank god, Rachel Getting Married looks like a return to form for Demme, judging by that trailer. Wasn't really buying into Oscar buzz for it until now.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm....I'm afraid I don't get the Ann Hathaway thing. She looks okay...but not really believable in the role of family black sheep.
Also, seeing Winger right next to her only shows up her weaknesses as an actress.
She's no Winger...Lange....Streep...Weaver...Foster...Blanchett...Winslet....well, you get the picture.
She does seem like a nice girl though, and she can sing!

The Jack said...

Don't you think that all the "which category will Ledger fall into?" talk is because there isn't much more to talk about at this point in the year? It seems obvious that he'd be Supporting Actor. Not even Jack Nicholson would have been Lead Actor, and he was in his film more than Ledger is.

It would seem odd if Ledger was nominated for Lead Actor. I don't even really consider it a possibility.

Transvestitia Transvestitenstein said...

to distract me from learning: here are my predictions...

BEST PICTURE:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Milk
- Nothing But the Truth
- The Road

[- Changeling
- Revolutionary Road]

LEADING ACTOR
- Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
- Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
- Viggo Mortensen - The Road
- Sean Penn - Milk
- Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

[- Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
- Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler]

LEADING ACTRESS
- Kate Beckinsale - Nothing But the Truth
- Angelina Jolie - Changeling
- Melissa Leo - Frozen River
- Meryl Streep - Doubt
- Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

[- Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
- Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky]

SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Josh Brolin - Milk
- James Franco - Milk
- Emile Hirsch - Milk
- Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
- Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road

[- Alan Alda - Nothing But the Truth
- Brad Pitt - Burn After Reading]

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Penélope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
- Vera Farmiga - Nothing But the Truth
- Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Charlize Theron - The Road
- Debra Winger - Rachel Getting Married

[- Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road
- Viola Davis - Doubt]

NATHANIEL R said...

the Jack that's a definite possibility. summertime being free of much to talk about Oscar-wise.

But i mean. You NEVER know what the studios will do. I mean every single year they surprise people with their complete lack of understanding about what constitutes a supporting or a leading role. And every year the Oscars and the critics do the same.

but people are debating whether it is actually a lead so it's not a black and white issue either. category confusion could happen.

Anonymous said...

I'm going to jump on board with whole Hugh Jackman scenario. He's a great actor (with recent brilliant turns in The Prestige and The Fountain) and he's respected in Hollywood (with an Emmy/Tony already to his name). Obviously, it would benefit him enormously if the movie is a huge a success - for Luhrmann, Kidman, and the movie itself.

Many people are thinking his role is just for the "eye candy" but it's actually a well fleshed out character - romantic, adventurous, rough hewn, paternal, + all the war aspects. I hope this will be his entrance into the Academy.

Here's what I'm thinking:

Best Picture
*Australia
*Doubt
*Milk
*Defiance
*Revolutionary Road/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Director
*Baz Luhrmann, Australia
*Gus Van Sant, Milk
*Edward Zwick, Defiance
*Christopher Nolan, TDK
*Sam Mendes, RR / David Fincher, BB

Best Actor
*Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
*Sean Penn, Milk
*Hugh Jackman, Australia
*Viggo Mortensen, The Road
*Leonardo DiCaprio, RR

Best Actress
*Meryl Streep, Doubt
*Kate Winslet, RR
*Nicole Kidman, Australia
*Keira Knightley, The Duchess
*Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky

Best Supp Actor
*Liev Schreiber, Defiance
*Robert Downey Jr, The Soloist
*Heath Ledger, TDK
*Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road / Brandon Walters, Australia
*Josh Brolin, Milk

Best Supp Actress
*Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
*Viola Davis, Doubt
*Taraji P. Henson, BB
*Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth
*Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married

I'm not buying into the Hathaway hype - I've seen the trailer and she doesn't look that great at all. She may have some memorable moments, but will be overshadowed for the most of it. I think she'll get a GG nod at best.

NATHANIEL R said...

i am a big Jackman supporter so I understand why people want him nominated but it's really hard to snag those nominations for romantic leads.

Leo in Titanic couldn't do it.

I'd wager that Ralph Fiennes only did it due to the burn victim makeup (bait) and his previous snub (I still am horrified he lost for Schindler's List since I think it's probably the best supporting performance of the decade) and his general reputation (which Jackman doesn't have. well liked sure. But that's different than being recognized as a "great thespian")

Gable did it for the most successful film of all time (gone with the wind) but he lost despite the film winning everything else. Etcetera...

Anonymous said...

Very true - I'm definitely hanging by a string... but I think Jackman's role will be better written and more meatier/fleshed out than Leo's in Titanic.

Jude Law also did it for Cold Mountain.

Anonymous said...

I think the Best Actor/Actress categories are going to be tough this year.....so many baity perfs likely. I've heard mostly very good things about the acting in Rev Road from a recent early test screening, though it doesn't sound like a best picture kind of thing.....likelihood of nods for Winslet/DiCaprio sounds high, though. Milk and Sean Penn are looking good....maybe there will be a little guilt over Brokeback, maybe not. The Road could be both relentlessly grim and a little too horror oriented for the AA, having read the book. Benjamin Button not only looks promising but has the smell of a winner. There we go. I love a surprise as much as the next person though.

mrripley said...

i don't get why milk is considered the frontrunner!!!!

NATHANIEL R said...

mrripley

I don't think it's considered the frontrunner. It's just one of the few that have inspired early confidence from pundits. the reasons are several:

timely

biopic (they love those)

incredible and true story (watch the Oscar winning documentary The Times of Harvey Milk and you'll see what the fuss is about)

pedigree (previously nom'ed director who has done a ton of work that Oscar would and could never recognize --too art film challenging -- but which a lot of people respect which theoretically makes him overdue in a way for at least another nod)

Janice said...

As it's only August I don't think ANYTHING can be called a "lock" just yet.

(With maybe the possible exception of Heath. He won't actually get the award, of course - Oscar doesn't have much of a history of going to posthumous nominees, but he'll be on the list. One-third "we should have awarded him for Brokeback" one-third "he was terrific in this film", one-third "sentiment for one who died too young", add a splash of "fanboys will tear the flesh from our limbs if we don't at least nominate him" and a dash of "boy this will push up the ratings - those fanboys might actually watch the show to see if he gets the trophy."

They won't actually give him the award, of course, but it will keep the suspense going.)

Janice said...

//Anyway, I'm happy to see you've moved Hathaway back into your top five. The trailer for Rachel Getting Married dropped recently (check my blog for a link) and she looks phenomenal.//

Thanks for the link, Hayden. (I still say the old title, "Dancing with Shiva" was much better - and it made more sense, if the main character refers to herself as Shiva. Rachel is, presumably, not the main character in this one.) I'm sure the acting was fine but it looked like a rehash of too many other things we've seen before ("Margot at the Wedding", anyone?), including the "despite it all the family pulls it together" cutesiness (the sort of thing that gets descriptions like "heartwarming") and I feel like the trailer pretty much gives away most of the main plot. Good to see Debra Winger in - anything - again, though, but that trailer gives me a "I'll wait until it comes out on DVD" feeling.

Anonymous said...

I still very firmly believe that "WALL-E" is superior to "The Dark Knight" and deserves a Best Picture nomination more. I believe the release date of the DVD for "WALL-E" is set for November, so at least they're thinking strategically.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Australia
Revolutionary Road
Milk
WALL-E

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher
Baz Lurhmann
Andrew Stanton
Chris Nolan
Clint Eastwood

Anonymous said...

I agree with you all.
Jackman definitely should join the at least the Oscar nominees.
He is a very good actor and it would be very postitively surprising if he got a nomination.

Arkaan said...

Well, it's difficult, but not impossible. Jude Law made it in for Cold Mountain despite the film faltering elsewhere, for example.

Anonymous said...

I think Jackman in "Australia" isn't just going to be a "romantic lead". The romance is stressed to get people into the theatre, but the movie does the war, too, with plenty of grimness and tragedy (but that wouldn't be a seller in the trailers). So, I suspect there'll be enough serious stuff so that the Jackman role looks more like serious drama than romance.

And I don't think it hurts that Jackman is well-liked. He's respected for his ability and hard work as well as his courtesy. "The Fountain" showed that he was totally game for whatever a director's vision happened to be, and "The Boy from Oz" that he could commit to a reputation-challenging project and make it wildly successful. And he's in his prime, he's not considered a kid who has decades ahead of him (like maybe DiCaprio in "Titanic").

ryan said...

jude law is a good point arkaan ... but 2003 was quite obviously the weakest least competitive best actor race of the past decade or two. There were only really ever 6 candidates. which is nothing. So it was either Crowe or Law who was going to luck out with the fifth spot.

Glenn said...

Anon, the Wall-E DVD release isn't an Oscar strategy it's a profit strategy. The reason Pixar have moved their movies to Summer is because the felt like The Incredibles lost about $50mil in box office because it was released in November, and also if you release amovie in summer the DVD can be out for Christmas.

Money Money Money. It's a rich man's world.