Monday, September 19, 2005

Oscar Prediction Updates: September

You know how it is: I like to envision scenarios. In this new one the whole world loves Brokeback Mountain (wishful thinking combined with Toronto buzz), my April Fools guess for the Lone Director returns as a 'career-honors' feeling sweeps critical and media groupthink (for Cronenberg), and Munich & Memoirs of a Geishacrash and burn (hee) because some "sure things" always do.

Hey, I have to keep it interesting for myself because Oscar pages are a CHORE to update! And besides we know so little... festival reports be damned. It's not like anything ever stays the same from September to January in the Oscar race.


Anonymous said...

I have faith that Memoirs of a Geisha will be beautiful, amazing, well-acted, incredibly costumed, respected and admired for its storytelling...and ultimately ignored. its just too good. one look at the trailor and you can tell.

Anonymous said...

Personally, the trailer for Memoirs did not impress me at all. I got a Lasse Hallstrom vibe from it, to tell you the truth- a sugar coated story of struggle, loss, and ultimately, happiness and redemption. And I'm with you, Nathaniel- I don't think Oscar will go for it.

Anonymous said...

I have seen some movies, not many in Toronto and I'll say this:

Brokeback Mountain should be big. Heath Ledger deserves a nod, and so does Ang Lee. The movie is great, the only problem is that it's a bit too long. But I can't really see this failing at the Oscars.

North Country is a rock solid classic movie with some superp acting. Charlize Theron deserves a nod, plain and simple. I know she got an Oscar just two years ago, but her performance is really amazing, ina completely different character from Monster's Aileen Wuornos. Frances Macdormand is great as well, and Richard Jenkins, who plays Charlize Theron's father in the movie, is really powerful.

Shopgirl is cute, even if not Oscar worthy in any category. It will be regarded as Steve Martinì's comeback, that's for sure.

Walk the Line. Reese and Joaquin are considered locks and deservedly so, but, the movie is not the masterpiece some critics make it out to be. It's a good biopic of a music legend, much like Ray was.
It doesn't stand a chance next to Brokeback Mountain, IMO.

So Heath, Charlize, Joaquin, Reese Frances, Ang for Best Director, are all deserving of Oscar consideration.
Next week I'll have the chance to attend a screening for Good Night and Good Luck.
I'm really curious to see it.

NicksFlickPicks said...

Good Night, and Good Luck is the one film I think might be underestimated in these nom's. I think it may even do better than All the King's Men, and I feel sure that Clarkson will get a Supporting citation for one of them. Strathairn, to me, is a shoo-in for a lead nod and maybe even for the win, vying at this point with Hoffman. One race where I don't think GN&GL will score is Cinematography, since they don't tend to jive on contemporary b&w all that often. Just a guess (obviously).

I think you're totally right about the Collins possibility for Supporting in Capote. Based on the trailer and festival-goer reports, sounds about right - great call.

Anonymous said...

The trailor for "Memoirs" duly impressed me. Being a big fan of the book, I was only expecting dissapointment, but the attention to detail and the amazing overall look of the trailor was captivating, for me. The book in itself is not very deep or intricate, to be rather coarse. It is actually a rather simplistic story, but it is told with such beauty and precision that the narrative is elevated to another level. All I'm saying is, don't expect some kind of Charlie Kaufman screenplay, just expect a great movie.

Joe R. said...

I really like the idea of Patricia Clarkson as a nominee for Good Night and Good Luck. I'd been thinking of her solely for All the King's Men, so I overlooked the other possibility. The GN&GL role looks, from the preview, to be the kind of thing where one great scene (coupled with big love for the film itself, obviously) could go a long way for our Patty.


actually i think the Memoirs trailer is terrible. It's all flashy visuals and awkward soap opera. With bad phonetic narration from Zhang Ziyi.

that's my general feeling on it. But Oscar sometimes loves bad narration. sometimes loves flashy visuals (as do I) and sometimes loves awkward soap operas... so this is all still guess work.

My hopes are not high is all and the trailer did nothing to convince me I was wrong about the movie.

Anonymous said...

It'd odd that you think that cause for the most part the Memoirs trailer is getting a very favourable reaction. I don't know where the movie will be good or not but I definitely have hopes for it.

And I send Nath an e-mail the other day saying how much I thought All The President's Men just... wasn't doing anything for me at the moment. I don't see it getting much play at all. The one nominee everyone seems to think is gonna happen (Sean Penn) I think is not. I dunno why. I just don't see it happening.


Anonymous said...

er, and i did mean All The King's Men. Getting my remakes confused you see.


Anonymous said...

Oh, and one thing I've been thinking is going to happen for a while relates to the lone director slot and Brokeback Mountain.

Isn't it entirely forseeable that the Academy just can't love it enough to nominate it for Best Picture but really like it enough so that they want to reward it's maker - Ang Lee. And where would that be? Best Director. I still think that is more possibly at the moment than the film and director. But then BBM is a romance and the Academy likes romances. aah, there's too many conundrums.

I think Ang Lee has a much better chance than the movie though. The movie has an uphill battle. Ang does not. They like Ang, they know what Ang can do.

But man, i'd LOVE Heath Ledger go get nominated. I've been a fan since Blackrock and Two Hands and it's sad seeing him never really break out but I think this will be it.

And whenever anyone immediately shrugs him off i say two words: Adrien Brody. His illustrious career no doubt brought him his long-overdue Oscar, no?


Anonymous said...

My gut right now tells me that the Odd Director In (i.e., the one w/o a Best Pic nominee) will be either Ang Lee or, provided his film can sustain its good buzz, Cronenberg.

Maybe, if (and this is a BIG 'IF') Cache/Hidden makes a tiny little bit of money, Haneke.

Oh what am I talking about? That'll never happen.

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