Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Last Minute Jitters and Sunday Plans

Share your last-second Oscar nomination thoughts right here.
  • What were you certain of yesterday but totally doubting today?
  • Will tomorrow morning's announcement be shocking? Or...
  • Is all the last minute talk for performances and films that haven't done well in the precursors (Eastwood and Gran Torino, Blanchett, etcetera) merely people wanting to be surprised?
  • What surprise would horrify you?
Make bold proclamations in the comments.

P.S. 1: Before it's suddenly out of date ... now's the time to listen to that post Globe / pre Oscar podcast if you haven't already.
P.S. 2: I'll be live-blogging the SAG Awards this Sunday night so be here for the conversation
*

69 comments:

J.L said...

I Really hope of course that Australia gets nominated for costume, Art Direction and Cinematography.

I Also think that Angelina Jolie may not be so certain nominee, it is a really close race for the Actress and i think that even Michelle Williams could get nominated for her performance in "Wendy and Lucy".

Jesus Alonso said...

for the sake of it, even thought I published them on my blog, here they are...

Best Picture

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Milk
· Slumdog Millionaire
· Wall·E

Alternate: Frost/Nixon. Dark Horse: Revolutionary Road.
Wishful thinking: Let the Right One In

Best Director:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom, David Fincher
· The Dark Knight, Christopher Nolan
· Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
· Milk, Gus van Sant
· Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle

Alternate: Wall·E, Andrew Stanton. Dark Horse: Revolutionary Road, Sam Mendes.
Wishful thinking: Thomas Alfredson, Let the Right On In


Best Actor:

· Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
· Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
· Sean Penn, Milk
· Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Alternate: Leonardo di Caprio, Revolutionary Road. Dark Horse: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor.
Wishful thinking: Jean-Claude van Damme, JCVD


Best Actress:

· Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
· Sally Hawkins, Happy-go-lucky
· Angelina Jolie, The Changeling
· Meryl Streep, Doubt
· Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Melissa Leo, Frozen River. Dark Horse: Kirsten Scott Thomas, I've loved you so long.
Wishful thinking: none at all, that is ellegible. I'm happy with Hawkins being nom'd.

Best Supporting Actor:

· Josh Brolin, Milk
· Robert Downey, Jr, Tropic Thunder
· James Franco, Milk
· Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
· Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt. Dark Horses: Eddie Marsan, Happy-go-lucky and Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Wishful thinking: Emile Hirsch, Milk


Best Supporting Actress:

· Amy Adams, Doubt
· Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
· Viola Davis, Doubt
· Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
· Kate Winslet, The Reader

Alternate: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom. Dark Horse: Rosemarie de Witt, Rachel Getting Married.
Wishful thinking: Lina Leandersson, Let the Right One In


Animated Feature:

· Bolt
· Kung-fu Panda
· Wall·E

Alternate: Waltz with Bashir. Dark Horse: none.
Wishful thinking: none.


Adapted Screenplay:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Frost/Nixon
· Revolutionary Road
· Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Doubt. Dark Horse: The Reader
Wishful Thinking: Let the Right One In


Original Screenplay:

· Happy-go-lucky
· Milk
· Rachel Getting Married
· Vicky Christina Barcelona
· Wall·E

Alternate: The Wrestler. Dark Horse: The Visitor
Wishful Thinking: Timecrimes (ellegible? if not, Tropic Thunder).


Score:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Revolutionary Road
· Slumdog Millionaire
· Wall·E

Alternate: Milk. Dark Horse: Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of Crystal Skull
Wishful Thinking: Let the Right One In


Song:

· "Down to Earth", Wall·E
· "Gran Torino", Gran Torino
· "I thought I lost you", Bolt
· "Once in a lifetime", Cadillac Records
· "The Wrestler", The Wrestler

Alternate: "Jaiho", Slumdog Millionaire. Dark Horse: "The Call", The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wishful Thinking: none.


Cinematography:

· Australia
· The Curious Case of Benjamn Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Revolutionary Road
· Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: The Reader. Dark Horse: Changeling.
Wishful thinking: Let the Right One In.


Art Direction and Set Decoration:

· Australia
· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· The Reader
· Revolutionary Road

Alternate: Milk. Dark Horse: Slumdog Millionaire
Wishful Thinking: Hellboy II - The Golden Army


Costume Design:

· Australia
· Changeling
· Doubt
· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· Revolutionary Road

Alternate: The Reader. Dark Horse: The Dark Knight
Wishful thinking: Speed Racer (lol, the film was bad, but this aspect was really good)


Film Editing:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Frost/Nixon
· Milk
· Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Wall·E. Dark Horse(s): Speed Racer, Iron Man
Wishful thinking: Cloverfield.


Sound Mixing:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Iron Man
· Speed Racer
· Wall·E

Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire. Dark Horse: Bolt.
Wishful thinking: Cloverfield


Sound Editing:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Iron Man
· Speed Racer
· Wall·E

Alternate: Bolt. Dark Horse: Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of Crystal Skull.
Wishful thinking: Cloverfield


Visual Effects:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Iron Man

Alternate: Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of Crystal Skull. Dark Horse: Quantum of Solace
Wishful Thinking: Cloverfield


Make Up:

· The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
· The Dark Knight
· Tropic Thunder

Alternate: The Wrestler. Dark Horse: The Reader
Wishful thinking: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian


Foreign Film:

· The Baader Meinhoff Complex, Germany
· The Class, France
· Departures, Japan
· Maria Larrson's Everlasting Moment, Sweden
· Waltz with Bashir, Israel

Alternate: The Necessities of Life, Canada. Dark Horse: Revanche, Austria (for mentioning one, lol, this cathegory is always a surprise).
Wishful thinking: Let the Right One In - inellegible. Sigh, stupid rules.


Tally:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom: 13 nominations.
The Dark Knight: 12 nominations
Slumdog Millionaire: 7 nominations
Milk: 7 nominations
Wall·E: 7 nominations
Revolutionary Road: 6 nominations
Doubt: 4 nominations
Frost/Nixon: 4 nominations
The Wrestler: 3 nominations
Australia: 3 nominations
Iron Man: 3 nominations
Rachel Getting Married: 2 nominations
Happy-go-lucky: 2 nominations
Changeling: 2 nominations
Gran Torino: 2 nominations
Tropic Thunder: 2 nominations
Vicky Cristina Barcelona: 2 nominations
The Reader: 2 nominations
Bolt: 2 nominations
Speed Racer: 2 nominations
Kung fu Panda: 1 nomination
Cadillac Records: 1 nomination


something just doesn't feel right with having only 2 single-nom'd films. But what the heck, here they go. Some no guts no glory here and there...

Keelay! said...

Dev Patel being nominated over James Franco. I won't like that. Basically, Slumdog Millionaire being nominated in EVERYTHING. Yawn.

I would love if Michelle Williams could snag a surprise nom, and if Wall-E could sneak into Best Picture.

There are many things I'm hoping and fearing. I guess I'll just relax until tomorrow, because I still feel like several categories could go anywhere.

Michael Parsons said...

I am bricking it about a Hawkins and/or TDK snub

Catherine said...

There's nobody that I'm really rooting for as hard as I was for The Lovely Laura Linney last year, except maybe Richard Jenkins. Longshots that would make me jump for joy would be Wall-E in Best Picture and less of a Slumdog love-in than we're all expecting. And even though I'm not going to be able to see Milk until this Friday at the very earliest, I'm still rooting for it and hope it does better than expected.

PPO-10 said...

I'm POSITIVE "Wall-E" will not make the Best Picture line-up, though I will be over the moon if it does.

Concerned about Winslet confusion mucking things up...very concerned about Hawkins as well. Best Actress could go really wrong.

m. said...

What were you certain of yesterday but totally doubting today? Milk being nominated for best pic...I hope so it's my favourite of the year. And has Fincher alienated himself out of a nomination?

Will tomorrow morning's announcement be shocking? It will be snooze worthy. I don't know why Slumdog is so loved, it was good not fantastic. I wish Rev Road was more loved, my 2nd favourite after Milk.

I don't think there will be surprises rtomorrow. Eastwood as best actor is not a surprise, it's expected. Best actress has 7 or 8, so Leo, Hawkins, Scott Thomas or Blanchett will not be surprises.
What surprise would horrify you? Gran Torino for best pic, director or screenplay will be "the horror". How could a director who elicited some of the worst performances of the year be best? And a screenplay of cliches, please no.

Angelo said...

Gran Torino getting any awards would horrify me.

Getting nominated for best song would even anger me a bit, since its not all that good.

Some Razzies for performances would be good, though.

James Colon said...

Even though there are certain people who consider him a lock, I'd be pretty disappointed if Brad Pitt was nominated instead of Richard Jenkins.

P.S. Though I don't really support the nomination, I'd be very surprised if Eastwood isn't nominated. It has the MILLION DOLLAR BABY factor, in that its the movie everyone fell in love with lately.

tim said...

I honestly have no idea on the tech categories this year, so I'm not going to predict them. But here are my predictions for the top 8. Like usual, I think that there will be some surprises:

Best Picture

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. The Dark Knight
4. Milk
5. Wall-E

Alternate: Frost/Nixon

Best Director

1. Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
4. Gus Van Sant- Milk
5. Darren Aronofsky- The Wrestler

Alternate: Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon

Best Actor

1. Sean Penn- Milk
2. Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
3. Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
4. Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino
5. Josh Brolin- W.

Alternate: Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin
Button

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep- Doubt
2. Anne Hathaway- Rachael Getting Married
3. Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
4. Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
5. Angelina Jolie- Changeling

Alternate: Melissa Leo- Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor

1. Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
2. Josh Brolin- Milk
3. Robert Downey Jr.-Tropic Thunder
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
5. Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire

Alternate: Eddie Marsan- Happy-Go-Lucky

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kate Winslet- The Reader
2. Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
3. Viola Davis- Doubt
4. Amy Adams- Doubt
5. Marisa Tomei- The Wrestler

Alternate: Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of
Benjamin Button

Best Original Screenplay

1. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Milk
3. Wall-E
4. The Wrestler
5. In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Doubt
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Frost./Nixon
5. The Reader

Kevin D. said...

I'll literally sob if Hawkins doesn't get in. Like forreal. I also see Rev. Road getting shut out compltely, though I still feel perhaps Winslet will still get in.

pony said...

The worst two things that could happen: Sally Hawkins being snubbed as lead and Freida Pinto sneaking in as supporting (nearly impossible, I know, but not impossible either). The worst thing that's very likely to happen is Dev Patel getting nominates (as much as I like him).

BeRightBack said...

Worst fear: Milk getting snubbed in favor of Gran Torino.

John T said...

The thing I just don't believe is the Best Director lineup will match Best Picture. That almost never happened, and it'd be the same as the DGA too. I am wondering how many first places Frost/Nixon will get, and if it will be what misses out (or that might just be hope) in favor of a more beloved film like WALL-E or The Wrestler. Or else, some great big director like Aronofsky, Allen, or Eastwood sneaks in in a huge surprise to take out Fincher, van Sant, or Howard.

Other than that, I'm just hemming over whether it will be Tomei or Adams, Hawkins or Leo, Eastwood or Jenkins, etc. (and I think it's the former in all three cases).

Sean said...

I completely agree with Tim except switch Pitt with Brolin and Marsan with Hoffman.

A happy surprise would be Frost/Nixon getting shut out except for Langella's nom. As you mentioned in your podcast, it is bizarre that this film is a lock without anyone getting excited about it. I feel like a more exciting (both critically and financially) pick would be WALL-E to fill that last Best Pic spot. And Ron Howard is as overrated as they come...right up there with You-Know-Who! Yes, he's made some decent films, but he chooses source material (for the most part) that can't be screwed up.

Come on, Academy, nominating an animated movie for only the second time in your 81 year life span would not render those over paid stars useless!!

Anonymous said...

It would horrify my if Pitt and especially Easwood (who I love as a director) were both nominated.

Ofcourse my biggest fear is not that. It's Winlset getting no nods. One year depression at minimum.


But I really think almost everything is said and done. I don't expect any big surprise.
But now that I think about, DK, Milk, Curious..., Frost/Nixon and Slumdog would be too boring to be true. (I mean, everyone expects that)I think one of them is out. I hope not Milk.



Jim

Anonymous said...

I'm worried I'll still be meh about it all even after tomorrow. I don't know if it's me or the films, but the usual excitement is just not there for me. It does help when you have that one film you passionately support, but not this time out. Where is my THERE WILL BE BLOOD? Will there be a battle worthy of Best Actress 2002? There really isn't anybody to actively root against (yeah SLUMDOG is being terribly over-rated, but when everything else in contention also feels just so-so I can't fault its success). Let's hope something really shakes things up tomorrow.

-VAL

Styx said...

The only surprises I'm considering right now are an unexpected surge for "Gran Torino" (including best picture and best director), and a snub for Meryl in lead actress. Other than that, I think it'll be business as usual tomorrow, which isn't necessarily a bad thing BTW.

Shawn said...

I'm rooting for Michelle Williams to be nominated. I haven't seen her movie though, but the nominations would force her to show up and hopefully accept the award on behalf of Ledger as opposed to Christopher Nolan. No knock on Nolan, but I really would like someone else to do it on Oscar night and Michelle would be perfect.

And as for me, as long as Slumdog Millionaire is nominated for Best Pic/Director, Kate Winslet is nominated for Best Actress/Supporting Actress, and Heath Ledger for Supporting Actor... everything else can be a surprise.

Anonymous said...

i was also thinking meryl might not make the final cut.

abstew said...

category confusion gets the best of the academy who end up nominating kate's THE READER performance in best supporting actress, best actress, best actor, best make-up, and best song.
she's a shoe-in for that best song oscar. it'll look great next to her grammy.

Cengiz said...

-WALL-E for Picture and Director
-Colin Ferrell for In Bruges in Lead Actor
-Kate Winslet for The Reader in Lead Actress
-EVE for WALL-E in S. Actress (hehe)
-James Franco for MILK in S. Actor
-Three Monkeys for Best Foriegn Film

Lev Lewis said...

I am praying that Synecdoche gets at least one nomination for either make up, song, art direction or of course screenplay. I just want one nomination for that film.

I am terrified that we are all underestimating Clint Eastwood and both of his films are gonna rack up nominations. Changeling will get actress and bundle of techs. And Gran Torino will get picture, director, actor, screenplay and song. This is my worst nightmare.

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. R.,

you are going to finish your nominations for the FB Awards before the Academy Awards are announced, aren't you?

Marcelo - Brazil.

Kim said...

I would love love love it if Wall-E snuck in to the Best Picture Race. I rewatched it recently, and it really was one of the best pictures last year (and my personal favorite).

Anonymous said...

What were you certain of yesterday but totally doubting today?
Sally Hawkins

Will tomorrow morning's announcement be shocking?
A complete Winslet shutout is entirely conceivable. But if that doesn't happen, I think it'll be as expected. Though hopefully there'll be a Laura Linney Savages style pleasant surprise.

What surprise would horrify you?
No Mickey Rourke.

Rob

Anonymous said...

I would like there won't so many fraud categorie, so I hope Kate Winslet (The Reader) will be in the lead category. And also Dev Patel should be in the leading actor's fifth spot...well actually it's not really necessary Dev receive a nomination, but just in case I would like it will be in the right category...

I don't know Eastwood or Blanchett could snag one spot since they have been poorly remembered by the precursor awards...but I will be glad if Michelle Williams could get it...

I think AUSTRALIA could receive some calls in the technic categories, but it will be amazing if the Academy shows some attention to THE FALL...

I hope some foreign films stupidly out of race for the best foreign language film, such as GOMORRAH or LET THE RIGHT ONE IN, could be nominated in other categories...

WALL*E of course will win the animated picture awards...but will it be nominated also as Best Picture? I don't know...and frankly I'm not really rooting for it...

After the producers guild nominated THE DARK KNIGHT I was sure it could be the first cap crusader's film with a shot at the major prize, but after Golden Globes and Bafta's snubs maybe it's not so sure, even if I really hope so...

WALTZ WITH BASHIR could be the frontrunner in the foreign language film, but it could be defeated by an outsider....

mirko

Anonymous said...

I think "Slumdog Millionare" is definitely the "Crash" of this year. A completely overrated movie that should at best be the last considered or an alternate for best picture only cause of it's popularity. "The Wrestler" should have atleast four or five nominations for there to be justice. But for Slumdog, I felt there was no emotion or feeling to the story. You knew what was gonna happen, and the story of a young man coming from the slums was told in a much better way, in "City of God."

Ceph said...

Things I will:
-"Revolutionary Road" for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay
-Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road") for Best Actor
-Double nod for Brad Pitt
-"The Class" for Foreign
-"Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired" for Documentary
-"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" leading the camp
-Darren Aronofsky for Directing

Things I'm affraid of:
-"Revolutionary Road" snub
-Viola Davis and/or Marisa Tomei snub in Supporting Actress
-Clint Eastwood ("Grand Torino") for Best Actor OR Directing
-Sally Hawkins terrible snub for Best Actress
-"The Class" snub for Foreign (wonderful film, really!!!!)
-Milk snub for Best Picture and Directing (it's AMPAS, dude!)

Things I'm sure of:
-"Slumdog" love (exotic but)
-Kate Winslet
-Kate Winslet
-Kate Winslet
-"WALL-E" for Animated
-Heath Ledger
-Heath Ledger
-Heath Ledger
-Penn, Rourke and Langella for Best Actor
-Man on Wire
-"Benjamin Button" for techs
-Penelope Cruz (!!!)

Howler said...

I'm pretty sure that Eastwood will be nominated. I just hope it's instead of Pitt and not Jenkins.
Surprise that would horrify me: Sally Hawkins snub. That would be plain awful.
Surprises that would make me die of happiness: WALL.E instead of Benjamin Button (are people really passionate about the latter?) or Frost/Nixon, Farrell and Jenkins both nominated, Aronofsky or Stanton instead of Howard.
Horrifying and sadly almost sure thing: Patel. They'll make me hate the movie. Let it be even Tom Cruise instead with his crazy dance, but not Patel ;/.
I'm rooting for Franco.

I'd swap Pitt for Eastwood and Taraji for Amy Adams in your predictions.

Cagatay said...

I wrote a long comment than some error occurred and it did not register.

*Sigh*

Let me just say that Henson won't get a nom and Adams will.

Towelie said...

By the way, I don't know if you guys know (I haven't seen any mention anywhere around here), but the visual effects candidates are only 7, now. The Academy has whittled down the race for best visual effects from 15 to 7 contenders, and they are: The Dark Knight, Benjamin Button, Iron Man, Australia, Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth and The Mummy. That leaves out Nat's predictions for number 4, 5, 6 and 7. That pretty much leaves out for certain nomination: Button, TDK and Iron Man.

NATHANIEL R said...

WHY AM I SO NERVOUS???

i guess it's all the possibilities of "horrifying" surprises (i.e. Gran Torino) when I have prepared myself for the expected bad stuff and feel ok about it ;)

i know it's petty but I really, in some ways hope, that REV RD, GRAN TORINO and DEFIANCE are all completely shut out because they really need to quit those post-Christmas tiny releases. At least have the decency to release your movie in several major cities by Christmas time in the year it's supposedly being honored for.

I honestly think they need to change the rules (8 top markets and your entire qualifying week being within the calendar year... not this December 26th or Dec 30th game. BLEACH.

but you've all heard me go on and on about that before. shutting up now.

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. R.,

you are going to finish your nominations for the FB Awards before the Academy Awards are announced, aren't you?

Marcelo - Brazil.

Herzog said...

I'm almost sure Winslet will get just one nomination in the Leading category for The Reader.

And Brad Pitt will be the double nominee: The Curious Case and Burn After Reading.

Rebecca Hall will surprise in the Supporting category. If not her, then Samantha Morton for Synecdoche.

Those are my bold predictions and My worst nightmare??
Eastwood getting the lone director spot, if there's one.

Anonymous said...

Ya'll are getting me nervous about Sally Hawkins now. Her snub would be extremely upsetting to me. :/

NATHANIEL R said...

Marcelo... working on it now!

Anonymous said...

It's that Hawkins omission at SAG that's the most worrying for her cause. We'd presume she's easily in the mix if it weren't for that.

However, sometimes people can pop out of the running and then get even greater traction for disappearing at SAG, so she could easily bounce back.

Guessing she'll place at #1 on far more ballots than Jolie will, so she should make it in.

Here's hoping!

Rob

The Oscar Nazi said...

I'll be horrified if Gran Torino makes its way into Best Picture.
I'm uncertain whether The Dark Knight is as safe as we've been led to believe.

Anonymous said...

Best Picture:
*The Curious Case of B. B.
*The Dark Knight
*Milk
*The Reader
*Slumdog Millionaire
Alternative: Frost/Nixon
Dark Horse: The Wrestler

Best Director:
*David Fincher
*Christopher Nolan
*Ron Howard
*Gus van Sant
*Danny Boyle
Alternative: Darren Aronovski
Drak Horse: Mike Leigh

Best Actor:
*Josh Brolin (The surprise a la Tommy Lee Jones)
*Frank Langella
*Sean Penn
*Brad Pitt
*Mickey Rourke
Alternative: Richard Jenkins
Dark horse: Colin Farrell

Best Actress:
*Anne Hathaway
*Sally Hawkins
*Angelina Jolie
*Melissa Leo
*Meryl Streep
Alternative: Kate Winslet
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams

Best Supporting Actor:
*Robert Downey Jr.
*James Franco
*Philip Seymour Hoffman
*Heath Ledger
*Dev Patel
Alt: josh brolin
Dark Horse: Eddie Marsan

Best Supporting Actress:
*Penelope cruz
*Viola Davis
*Taraji P. Henson
*marisa tomei
*Kate Winslet
Alternative: Amy Adams
Dark Horse: One of the Rachel's girls

Best Original Screenplay
*Milk
*Rachel Getting Married
*Vicky Cristina Barcelona
*Wall-E
*The Wrestler
Alternative: Happy-go-lucky
Dark Horse: the Visitor

BEst Adapted Screenplay:
*The Curious Case of Benjmain Button
*The Dark Knight
*Doubt
*The Reader
*Slumdog Millionaire
Alternative: The Dark Knight
Dark Horse: Gomorrah (let the Right One it esta descalificada y no se encuentra en la lista oficial de la Academia >.<)

ANIMATED PICTURE:
*Kung Fu Panda
*Wall-E
*Waltz With Bashir
Alt: Bolt

FOREIGN PICTURE:
*Baader-meinhoff Complex (Germany)
*The Class (France)
*Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
*Three Monkeys (Turkey) - I hope so!!
*Watz With Bashir (Israel)
Alternative: The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Dark Horses: Departures (japan)

Anonymous said...

"It's that Hawkins omission at SAG that's the most worrying for her cause. We'd presume she's easily in the mix if it weren't for that."

Well, anon@ Sally Hawkins was snubbed for BFCA, SAG and BAFTA (IN HOME) and Angelina Jolie has it. For me, Sally Hawkins is the MOST overrated performance of the year. I can't stand her.

Jesus Alonso said...

isn't it ironic that only a few years before there was a worldwide scream in the USA to have Penelope Cruz out of Hollywood and that now she's beloved and "a great actress"?

She's neither one nor the other. When she has a good role and a good director, she can be great ("La Niña de tus Ojos" is still her best performance) but she can be also terribly awful if she's making the movie just for the love of money. I think what's playing on her favor lately is a certain guilt from Hollywood and the media to understand that maybe she wasn't being given the right chances to prove herself... she's great in VCB, though, but she isn't by far the greatest spanish actress of her generation (that one is Maribel Verdú, maybe with Tetro she'll get her richly deserved first Oscar nom?)

ReX said...

Well, anon@ Sally Hawkins was snubbed for BFCA, SAG and BAFTA (IN HOME) and Angelina Jolie has it. For me, Sally Hawkins is the MOST overrated performance of the year. I can't stand her.

Too bad for you then. Sally Hawkins's brilliant, and I think she's getting nodded tomorrow fairly easily.

Matt said...

Some surprises:

- Tropic Thunder picks up a sound nomination

- Defiance gets snubbed across the boards

- Brad Pitt gets a nomination for 'Burn After Reading'

The Obenson Report said...

Gran Torino or Clint Eastwood getting any noms will irk me!

As would the vastly over-rated Slumdog Millionaire - although, it's pretty much a done deal. I wouldn't be surprised if it sweeps at the Oscars as it did at the Globes.

I'd love to see the Academy completely ignore Revolutionary Road and the Curious Case Of Forrest Gump... I mean Benjamin Button.

Towelie said...

I think Gran Torino will easily get a song nom for "Gran Torino"

Jesus Alonso said...

nice and big question would be... what IF Brad Pitt got the double nom? Would they dare to double snub him? He can't win Ledger's, but I could picture him beating both Penn and Ledger in this scenario, specially if the Academy awards Benjamin Buttom.

Jose said...

I'll be praying for Kristin Scott Thomas and Sally Hawkins to make it in Best Actress.
"WALL-E" for Best Picture and Director and I'd be in heaven if Woody Allen and Mike Leigh got in Best Director as well.
Also for "Frost/Nixon" to be snubbed in the top categories, except Langella of course, and for Brangelina to score 0 nods.

Shawn said...

I think "Slumdog Millionare" is definitely the "Crash" of this year. A completely overrated movie that should at best be the last considered or an alternate for best picture only cause of it's popularity.

So wrong in so many ways. Slumdog Millionaire has gotten MORE award attention that Crash and has higher critic ratings in every conceivable site (Rottentomatoes, Metacritic, IMDB). And "Crash" is "Crash" because of Brokeback Mountain. THERE IS NO BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN TYPE OF MOVIE THIS YEAR in terms of hype and awards cache. The closest would be, yes, Slumdog Millionaire.

Rick said...

just got back from seeing "The Wrestler" ... I had my favorite movie already picked out for the Oscar... now i have totally changed my mind... for a small movie, it is overwhelming in what it has to say about life... if O'Rourke does not get the Oscar, I will blow up Hollywood!!! Tomei and Wood were excellent.. and the song is great.
I cried through the end credits and continued to cry on the drive home... what a wuss!

Anonymous said...

I think that The Dark Knight will not be nominated for best picture. In its place, they are going to nominate Revolutionary Road. I also expect about 5 nominations for that movie (just a hunch).


Pedro

Pedro said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ian said...

EW gran torino. I can't believe it was overlooked by the Razzies!

NicksFlickPicks said...

I'm having last-minute thoughts about Michelle Williams, too, and I thought I was alone till I read this thread. Sort of an American History X thing, since this will be just the kind of performance that will get #1 votes from a lot of its fans? And obviously people are feeling warmly toward her this year. I just don't see much of a campaign, and I don't see how her mini-mini-distributor could possibly afford one. But still...

Meanwhile, all my love is going to Trouble the Water in the Documentary and Song categories. Let's make that happen, Oscar!

CNO said...

just want to see some recognition to
The Fall, the Class, The Duchess, Let the right one in, flight of the red baloon, Paranoid Park, Hell Boy2, Hunger, In Bruges.

tim r said...

Like many, I am seriously worried for Sally (especially after that shock BAFTA snub), and really, really want DeWitt to get in for supporting (but suspect she won't).

It's weird how Kristin Scott Thomas has faded (having been third favourite at one time) and Zylberstein all but disappeared in their respective categories. Not that I prefer their movie, but when did everyone start liking Angie so much in Changeling? Did they see it?

Tomei losing out to Henson would be horrid also -- please, please no.

If Williams gets in for Wendy, by the way, I will not be fully content unless they nominate Lucy for supporting too.

JarJar K said...

I have a feeling that Dev Patel will NAUGHT be nominated because all we've been hearing has been SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE but we have NAUGHT been hearing DEV PATEL DEV PATEL DEV PATEL. I think that that says something.

Watch me be wrong.

NATHANIEL R said...

so many new commenters. WELCOME.

i'm about to post my final film bitch nominations! woot

Dimi said...

I was actually really sure that Angelina would get shut out a few days ago but now find myself doubting it. Taking into consideration that I think Richard Jenkins will replace Brad, the Brangelina household would have a horrible day.

I hope Sally Hawkins gets her nomination though. The current category that I'm pretty sure will destroy my predictions will be original screenplay. So many options, so many WGA snubs (no Jenny Lumet!!!) I can't decide.

And as a side note, if The Reader or Gran Torino get nominated for BP, I will give up on Oscar life all together (well...that's not QUITE true)

adri said...

I'd love to see them get a nom:
Sally Hawkins
Michelle Williams
Colin Farrell
Brendan Gleeson
James Franco

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see snubs for:
Kate Winslet
Meryl Streep
Josh Brolin
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
even Mickey Rourke
(I think people believe in "locks" too much, and nothing is certain. If it is certain, why bother having the awards at all?)

I'd also like to see "Australia", "In Bruges", and "Hellboy II" do better than expected.

YH said...

Freida Pinto for best supporting actress. I'm going to go ahead and call it now.

NATHANIEL R said...

my entire oscar ballot (i.e. my own awards) is now available

Arkaan said...

I'm worried about? Not much. Milk being snubbed for best picture would bother me a little, but I haven't seen it yet. I'd be worried about the backlash if Pinto gets nominated, simply because seeing the comparisons to CRASH simply make me wretch (I consider Crash to be the decade's worst film, a film that simply misunderstands and abuses the medium in ways I have yet to comprehend) and I know the backlash will be overwhelming.

I'm afraid that Frost/Nixon isn't as weak as I want it to be.

Otherwise, most of my favourites won't get nominated, and I'm pretty cool with that. I think after the Brokeback fiasco, it's hard for me to get truly invested in these races. I'm waiting for the day I just don't give a shit, but who knows it that'll come.

NATHANIEL R said...

arkaan... if i'm any indication (and maybe i'm not) that day doesn't really come. but you do eventually get weaned off of emotionally investing too much ;) because every year would be so painful if you didn't.

Arkaan said...

The oscars are such a gateway drug, aren't they? I mean, if I had to pinpoint two things/people I fell in love with movies in the first place, the Oscars would be one reason (the other... Leonard Maltin. Shhhh, don't tell anyone). Of course, if you chart the course of cinephilia as you would a lifetime, eventually, your idols become flawed figures and you find out that Santa Claus doesn't exist.

Well, tomorrow's just a reminder.

Arkaan said...

I mean, if I had to pinpoint two things/people I fell in love with movies in the first place, the Oscars would be one reason

Should Read

I mean, if I had to pinpoint two things/people/reasons I fell in love with movies in the first place, the Oscars would be one reason (that caused me to fall in love with the movies...)

Which is still horribly written, but you get the idea.

Kamikaze Camel said...

I'm not really that fussed. I haven't seen enough of the contenders to get angry yet and this year is just such a non-event it seems where there seems to be next to no possibility of surprises.

I am, however, predicting Winslet for The Reader in lead and Cadillac Records in Costume Design. Everything else in my predictions follow the status quo. I did predict both Jenkins and Eastwood though with no Pitt and Melissa Leo in over Jolie (just cause).

...not "jittery" at all though. If I turn out to be wrong... oh well.

Bernardo said...

- I'm doubting 3 of the 5 sure nominees. I'm feeling Milk, TDK or F/N could be snubbed...even two of them!
- I switched around my Supp Actresses, getting rid of Tomei and making Henson advance...

- I think Eastwood is very probable. And I also think DiCaprio will get in over Pitt/Jenkins...

- I'd hate The Dark Knight for Adapted Screenplay... I couldn't even follow the story and the dialogue was awful.
- I'd hate a Winslet snub.
- I'm going to cry for every category that WALL·E doesn't make...

I am crossing my fingers for TDK being snubbed.

Anonymous said...

So can Brad Pitt get in supporting actor for "Burn After Reading"? Double nods today?