Monday, January 19, 2009

Actress Psychic - Last Update Before Winners Are Announced

This post is for those who predicted the Best Actress Oscar nominations with me back in April. Another rollercoaster month of precursors has gone by and this is the final point update prior to the finale (the last points come from the Oscar nominations themselves this Thursday!).

Points since December 21st
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road + 7 (film opened, nominated for OFCS & BAFTA, and Golden Globe Lead win)
Meryl Streep, Doubt + 6 (BFCA win, OFCS BAFTA noms)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married +6 (BFCA win, OFCS & FB nom)
Kate Winslet
, The Reader +6 (BAFTA & FB noms, no points for Globe win since it was in supporting)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky + 6 (Globe win, OFCS & FB noms)
Cate Blanchett
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button + 5 (Vanity Fair cover, film opened and box office points)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling + 3 (BAFTA nom)
Melissa Leo,
Frozen River + 3 (FB nom)

We'll announce the gold, silver and bronze medalist psychics next weekend. Your current leaders are KiYe and Rich Aunt Pennybags who both guessed Hathaway, Hawkins, Jolie, Streep and Winslet back in April. BUT, since they have Winslet for different films something has to give...

Here's that complete chart of contestants and their points. If there's a surprise snub or surprise inclusion on Oscar nomination morning, it still could be several people's game.Hayden W, JarJar K, Jaydawg, Joel C, Matt Noller, Rizz and sasnyder might be battling it out for the bronze but we'll see. A snub for Jolie or a nomination for Blanchett would definitely shake up the overall point story. The tiebreaker question "how many nominations will Revolutionary Road get?" turned out to be a good one to ask. Expectations for that movie's Oscar fate have shifted wildly.

20 comments:

Runs Like A Gay said...

So only if we get 5 surprise snubs and 1 performance from a film that's not even opened gets a nom can I win.

At least I've got to do better than this next year.

Joel said...

I still stand by my choice to put Julianne Moore over Angelina Jolie...

Bernardo said...

Well... I'm beating Nathaniel by 2 points XD. We've got the same lineup except that I have Kate for The Reader and he has Hathaway.

This makes me angry! Originally I had Hathaway instead of Portman and switched it at the last minute...

I'd have Jolie, Streep, Winslet, Hathaway and Hawkins and would be battling for one of the top spots.

NATHANIEL R said...

curse those 2008 movies that became 2009 movies!'

I'm doing so much worse than I did last year when i at least finished in the top 20

The Jack said...

So do all the points awarded to actresses who don't get nominated get nullified after Thursday?

Like, if someone has been getting points throughout the year for chosing Julianne Moore, and then she doesn't get nominated, does that person keep their points?

Carl said...

On behalf of the rest of us who eschewed the "we sorta knew it was coming" category fraud and took a leap of faith, thank you for recognizing the Kate Winslet performance in "The Reader" in your FB Awards. Heaven knows I needed the help to stay out of the cellar.

NATHANIEL R said...

carl -- i'll always fight the good fight ;)

the jack -- the point rules are available by link from that contestats page. You keep whatever points you earn... the idea is to get the closest to the shortlist as possible. so if you guessed a person who is probably coming in 6th or 7th place person... you still deserve credit for being a good little psychic.

Hayden said...

Let's go Cate Blanchett!

Kent said...

How is Cate Blanchett capable of managing a nomination at this point?

Please explain...

Kamikaze Camel said...

For once I'm angry at Nicole Kidman! Damn you woman!

18 Year Old Blogger said...

And Nathaniel, question. How does somebody who has Emily Blunt in their Top 5 have the same number of points if I have Kidman? Our other 4 actresses are the same. Including Winslet for Revolutionary Road..

Steven said...

And Nathaniel, question. How does somebody who has Emily Blunt in their Top 5 have the same number of points if I have Kidman? Our other 4 actresses are the same. Including Winslet for Revolutionary Road..
-------------------------

Did The Young Victoria open?

NicksFlickPicks said...

I don't understand why Nathaniel can't ever show any faith in me, even though we're friends. Why is he acting like I couldn't still win this? I've had my ear to the ground all month, and all I'm hearing is "Kidman surge, Blindness tsunami." It's obviously the Liberal Elite Media that is convincing Nathaniel that Anne Hathaway, et al., have got this locked up.

If Marianne Faithfull gets nominated for Irina Palm, which finally opened in '08, do I get retroactive points for picking her last year? Would I win the whole competition in one fell swoop if that happened? Please to explain.

NATHANIEL R said...

Steven...

Emily Blunt got 1 point for a NYT Magazine cover and Kidman got 1 point for her film opening. Thus the same points.

However I just realized I missed 1 point for Kidman (passed the $27 million mark at the box office) so I'll add that before the finish :)

john said...

Kind of on a related note has anyone seen the pics of Cate Blanchett in Vanity Fair, there's one where she's dressed as Cleopatra, and one that pays homage to Sarah Bernhardt - definitely worth looking at.

Anonymous said...

Cate Blanchett can manage a nomination in the same fashion Laura Linney received one last year.
Laura was not nominated for anything other than the OSCAR, which knocked Angelina out.

Hayden said...

Blanchett did the heaviest lifting in the second-biggest Best Picture contender, has done a good deal of press (see Vanity Fair), and is Cate Blanchett.

Precursors are never everything, and she at least has a BFCA nomination to her credit. And, in the end, I think that Hawkins' BAFTA and SAG snubs could be fatal. She couldn't even convince the British to nominate her, and she didn't exactly nail her Globe speech for those who aren't familiar with her.

Melissa Leo's got a great argument, but I still see her as one of those blue collar SAG nominations, not as an AMPAS glamor magnet. I'd love to see her get in but she hasn't quite had the press that's necessary for an unknown. And, besides, has anyone seen Frozen River?

As for Scott Thomas, I just don't see the support.

One of the biggest strengths of Blanchett's chances is that everyone's seeing the film. I don't think anyone could come out of it without seeing that she worked the hardest, or that it's the kind of role the Academy loves in the kind of film the Academy loves. Oscar likes what Oscar likes, and precursors don't mean everything.

Tracy said...

What's a 'FB Nom'? I don't see it on the rules page?

Tracy said...

OK, Filmbitch noms are indeed in the rules. I've probably missed it before.

Jar Jar said...

Gahhh! Stupid freakin' Julianne Moore!