Saturday, January 10, 2009

My Golden Globe Predictions

I will not be live-blogging the Golden Globes on Sunday -- I really missed this ceremony last year so I have to throw a party to celebrate its return. I'm betting it's a slightly mixed split sort of night for Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. And I changed my prediction last second to Gomorrah for Foreign Film. The Comedy/Musical categories are where the real suspense is since there are no precedents set in precursor season. Here's my predictions...

And yours?


Anonymous said...

Umm.. I actually WOULD vote against "Slumdog Millionaire" in best score category. I prefer Desplat, though I'm aware it is not his best work.

Anonymous said...

Picture, Drama: Benjamin Button
Director: Boyle
Actor, Drama: Penn
Actress, Drama: Streep
Picture, Comedy: In Bruges (God this one is tough)
Actor, Comedy: Farrell
Actress, Comedy: Hawkins
Supp. actress: Cruz
Supp. actor: Ledger, and even though I think he deserves it, I'd love to see Downey Jr winning.
Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "The Wrestler"
Animated: do they really need this category?

Gustavo Cruz said...

It will be so sad having Winslet not winning anything, because she will be there.

Dave said...

Mine are here. (For some reason, I like to lower my success percentage by doing the tv ones too.)

And predicting Streep isn't crazy; it's just incredibly, incredibly depressing.

carlos cuomo said...

What've you been smoking lately nat ?

Streep... for Caca Mia ?

Javier ? No, Farrell's winning the Globe

And Winslet is not going home empty-handed

James Colon said...

I don't really know what to think of most of the comedy/musical categories, particularly Best Actor. The obvious choices are Bardem and Hoffman, but Bardem literally does NOTHING in VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, and I'm pretty sure no one has seen LAST CHANCE HARVEY. I thought Brendan Gleesan had a good shot, but I don't really know anymore.

As for everything else, I agree with you that BENJAMIN BUTTON will win Best Drama.

P.S. Didn't Hathaway's anxious/gracious speech at the BFCA remind you of the way Cotillard played the press last year as the ditzy goddess? Suddenly, I think Anne might be eclipsing Meryl in the Best Actress race, especially after Streep's whole speech earlier about how she "hates campaigning for Oscars" (like she has to). Just a thought.

NoNo said...

Nathaniel did you see EW's oscar recall online? You'd be happy to know that voters recalled she who must not be named's oscar but sad to see they also did shakespeare in love (you're a fan of that movie aren't u?)

Glenn said...

Just to prove how more interesting the Musical/Comedy categories are look at their posters lined up on Nat's prediction page. The comedy ones are so much brighter and livelier and interesting whereas the drama ones are generally flat and awful (Slumdog notwithstanding).

I'm thinking Slumdog (feels very international ala Babel), Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Streep, Hawkins, Penn, Farrell, Cruz, Ledger, Fincher, Shanley, Waltz with Bashir, Wall-E, "Down to Earth" (it IS Peter Gabriel and they gave this award to prince's "song of the heart", remember?) and Rahman.

Keelay! said...

Picture-Drama: Slumdog Millionaire
Picture-Comedy: Happy-Go-Lucky
Animated: Wall-E
Actor-Drama: Mickey Rourke
Actor-Comedy: James Franco
Actress-Drama: Anne Hathaway
Actress-Comedy: Sally Hawkins
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Song: "The Wrestler"

Keelay! said...

Oh, forgot Director: Danny Boyle

Shawn said...

I'm predicting a Slumdog Millionaire sweep and Kate Winslet getting a win.

Well I'm less predicting and more hoping.

Anonymous said...

Drama- slumdog
director- boyle
actor drama- penn
actress drama- hathaway
comedy- vicky cristina
actor, comedy- franco
actress comedy- hawkins
supp actress- cruz
supp actor- ledger

i agree with many of your thoughts. i think that slumdog will win best picture, although those are the two in competition for oscar too. even though button has bigger stars, slumdog feels more mainstream and crowd pleasing, which globes go for, and i think will pull through and also tip the scales in the oscar race, which i dislike because dont really like the film.
i agree that best picture and actor in comedy is hard to call. i agree with vicky cristina, but for some resson think franco will win. bruges will likely split the vote. i thought bardem was not very memorable or good in vicky, nor a lead. between franco and hoffman, i would say hoffman but his film has no momentum as of now. franco was good and had a good year, and was probably the funniest (exluding a bruges split) i think that hawkins has a lock on actress though. they might like to award streep, but how could one in good faith after seeing doubt the same year.

par3182 said...

drama - button
actor drama - penn
actress drama - hathaway
comedy - in bruges
actor, comedy - franco
actress comedy- hawkins
director - boyle
supp actress - davis
supp actor - ledger
screenplay - reader
song - wrestler
score - slumdog
animated - wall-e
foreign - gomarrah

Bernardo said...

Benjamin Button
Alt. Slumndog Millionaire

Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alt. Happy-Go-Lucky

Danny Boyle
Alt. David Fincher

Sean Penn
Alt. Mickey Rourke

Dustin Hoffman
Alt. Javier Bardem

Actress: (Drama being the hardest pick of the night)
Meryl Streep
Alt. Anne Hathaway
(Winslet and Jolie are perfectly plausible too... it's gonna be a rollercoaster)

Sally Hawkins
Alt. Meryl Streep

Penélope Cruz
Alt. Kate Winslet

Heath Ledger
Alt. Heath Ledger?

Slumdog Millionaire
Alt. Frost/Nixon


Benjamin Button
Alt. Slumdog Millionaire

The Wrestler
Alt. Gran Torino

Alt. Bashir

Alt. WALL·E?

JorgeRodrigues said...

I'm so sick and tired of the Slumdog phenomenon that I am really wishing for it to lose all the awards for which it's been nominated...

I really do believe Desplat's score is better than Rahman's... And I do think Slumdog is no better than The Reader or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button... And I sure hope than GG and Oscar will award someone worthier than Boyle, let's say Fincher...

And Shanley's screenplay is a fair match to Beaufoy's... So I am hoping Slumdog loses everything.

It has become so annoying to hear its name each and every time we talk about awards...

Oh and to think that in August we believed that «Doubt» and «Australia» would be the awards magnets of the year... :D

rosengje said...

I think one of the main surprises tomorrow night is going to be David Hare winning Screenplay for The Reader. The HFPA obviously loved the movie, and this seems the most solid place to reward it.

Anonymous said...

Best Picture (Drama): Benjamin Button
Best Picture (C/M): Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Actor (Drama): Sean Penn
Best Actor (C/M): Dustin Hoffman
Best Actress (Drama): Kate Winslet
Best Actress (C/M): Sally Hawkins
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Best Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Score: Benjamin Button
Best Original Song: "The Wrestler"

Anonymous said...

I think Meryl's more likely to win for "Doubt" than for "Mamma Mia!", or maybe that's just my hope that the Globes will have a bit of taste for a change. It would be funny if Brangelina and Tom Cruise won in all of their nominated categories. And don't think that the Globes aren't above doing something like that.

RahulB said...

For me personally, the Slumdog score was the only thing about that movie that did something for me.

I just don't expect any major surprises from this year's Globes.

Anonymous said...

"Oscar might go to Winslet to make it up to her for all those losses at such a young age"

God, I didn't laugh because I just woke up and haven't had my coffe yet but I'm sure I'll remember that line and laugh while walking on some street. I imagine her say "When I was a little girl I had a rag doll, but no Oscar".

I don't know if I want Meryl to win. I mean, the Adaptation and Devil Globes, I agreed. But in this case, it's Hawkins'.

I saw the "The Reader" and I loved the perf. I think I want Kate to win the supporting. Sorry for the truly supporting performances but I don't have that big a heart. (is that correct grammar?)


Glenn said...

Actually, I will change my Streep prediction to Hathaway. I forgot she won so recently for Prada and... I just can't see Winslet winning for Revolutionary Road.

adam k. said...

I can. I think Winslet makes her play here for RR and everyone gets very confused about who will win actress and which film she'll win for.

I finally saw The Reader and I don't think it's blatant category fraud. I say the role is on the line... rather like Rachel Weisz's oscar role... you could make a case for either one. It's really Michael's movie. It's just weird because he's played by two actors with roughly equal screentime. I think they should've just made David Kross the sacrificial lamb and called him the lead... he seemed a bit more like one than Fiennes for some reason... and he was never getting nominated anyway.

But I am actually rooting for Cruz even though I don't think Kate is committing fraud. I just loved her performance more... plus the Javier/Penelope moment is just too enticing.

My predictions:

DRAMA PICTURE: Slumdog (they like international)
SCORE: Rahman
SONG: Springstein

I'm nearly certain that picture, director, screenplay will go to 3 different films. But which three? I don't think either Button or Slumdog is winning screenplay. That's not how the globes roll... it will be Doubt or Frost/Nixon. Picture, director and score could each go to either Button or Slumdog, it's hard to say. Pic/director split could cut either way. Drama actress and comedy actor are also crazy hard to guess. I love it.

adam k. said...

Oops, I forgot the supporting categories... that'd be LEDGER and CRUZ.

Jesper.L said...

Best Pic: Drama -The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Pic: Comedy or Musical - Mamma Mia!
Best Actor: Drama - Sean Penn - Milk
Best Actor: Comedy or Musical - Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance harvey
Best Actress: Drama - Anne hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical - Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress - Kate Winslet - The Reader
Best Screenplay - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Score - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Original Song - The Wrestler
Best Foreign Language Film - Gommorah
Best Animated - Wall-E

Jesper.L said...

Forgot one category:
Best Director - David Fincher - The Curious case of Benjamin Button

Anonymous said...


JoFo said...

Ive got a good feeling about my predix. You just wait and see!

Best Pic - Drama: Benjamin Button (Because Slumdog is taking the Oscar and they NEVER correlate anymore)
Best Pic - Comedy: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor - Drama: Frank Langhella in Frost/Nixon
Best Actor - Comedy: Dustin Hoffman in Last Chance Harvey
Best Actress - Drama: Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Best Actress - Comedy: Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona
Best Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Film: Wall-E
Best Foreign Film: I've Loved You So Long
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: The Wrestler

alex said...

DRAMA: Benjamin Button
COMEDY: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
DRAMA ACTOR: Sean Penn, Milk
DRAMA ACTRESS: Meryl Streep, Doubt
COMEDY ACTOR: James Franco, Pineapple Express
COMEDY ACTRESS: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
DIRECTING: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
ORIGINAL SCORE: AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
ORIGINAL SONG: "The Wrestler", The Wrestler

The Globes are the kind of awards where everyone wins something somewhere (example: Penelope won't win, but her film will do). So my doubt is what could win Frost/Nixon. Probably their only chance is with the screenplay, but I will play the secure card predicting Slumdog. Also, political films are empty handed in the Globes. But Frost/Nixon is the spoiler in the screenplay category.
Also could happen that the favorite prevail and Slumdog wins BP over Benjamin Button. I can't imagine Benjamin Button with zero Globes, so if Slumdog wins Picture, Benjamin Button will win Original Score as a consolation prize.
On the rest, I'm confident with these predictions.

Peter Chan said...

Have fun... party hardy!

Deborah said...

Mad Men Mad Men Mad Men...what? Movies?

Rob said...

Call me crazy, but with seven nominations and no wins, I do think Winslet will win something. It's hard to say which though.

I still say Farrell in 'comedy actor' slot too.

Winslet for Leading Actress to really skew things....

gabrieloak said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mrripley said...

so ahrd but i a mnoly interested in the acting categories i cant see them letting kate go hom empty handed a 6th time i think they will let meryl loose she has enough.

dra act - rourke alt penn
dra ass - winslet alt hathaway
com act - bardem alt hoffman
com ass - hawkins alt streep
sup act - ledger alt downey jnr
sup ass - cruz alt winslet

Rick said...

mama mia

Anonymous said...

Angelina Jolie SHOULD win.
She should win for MASTERFULLY balancing the character's feelings of hope and terror and love and anger, consantly being on the brink of a nervous breakdown. The best!
Mickey Rourke is the greatest again. He SHOULD win as well.
Fingers crossed.
Streep is not exciting, but could win anyways.
Anne H is not even close to Jolie, not in her wildest dreams.

Supp Actr:
Supp Actress:
Picture/C or M:
Haven't seen but 2!
WALL.E (no kidding!)
Best Foreign Language Film:

Sounds RIGHT to me.

Anonymous said...

Very sorry for posting twice.


fixed. s'ok.

Anonymous said...

Picture. Drama: I think SM lose here. Benjamin Button. Alt: the Reader
Actor. Drama: Sean Penn. Alt: mickey Rourke
Actress. Drama: Anne Hathaway. Alt: Meryl Streep
Picture. Comedy or Musical: Let face it HFPA loves the muscials: Mamma Mia!. Alt: happy-Go-LUcky
Actor. C/M: James Franco (I hope he'll win). Alt: Colin Farrell
Actress. C/M: Sally Hawkins (I don't know but I don't think she' a lock here. Alt: meryl Streep and Frances mcDormand
Supporting Actor: heath Ledger. Alt: None
Supporting Actress. kate Winslet. Alt: Penelope cruz
Directing: Danny Boyle. Alt. David Fincher
Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy. Alt: John patrick Shanley
Score: BEnjamin Button. Alt: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: Gran Torino (Surprise of the year). Alt: The Wrestler
Animated: Wall-E. Alt: None
Foreign Picture: Waltz With Bashir. Alt: Gomorrah

Styx said...

Can't wait for my Globes tonight! Here are my film predictions:

Picture Drama: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Director: David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Actor Drama: Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Actress Drama: Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Picture Musical or Comedy: "Mamma Mia!"
Actor Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell, "In Bruges"
Actress Musical or Comedy: Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Original Song: "The Wrestler"
Original Score: A.R. Rahman, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Animated Film: "Wall-E"
Foreign Language Film: "Gomorrah"

Glenn said...

Adam, we chose all the same predictions except best drama actress and best song. Even down to the Picture/Director/Screenplay being split between Slumdog/Button/Doubt.


Anonymous said...

Button and In Brudges for best pics.
Penn and Franco for actors.
Hathaway and Hawkins for actress.
Ledger and Winslet for supporting.
Tina Fey for whatever tv ones she's nominated for.
That's all I got.

Notluke said...

I feel Button and Slumdog will each get two of the following; Drama, Director, Screenplay and Score, but I can't decide which gets which.

Let's say, just for fun:

Benjamin Button for Drama, Happy-Go-Lucky for Comedy, Sean Penn, Colin Farrell, Meryl Streep, Sally Hawkins, David Fincher, Penelope Cruz, Heath Ledger (though if any group gets off this bandwagon, it's gotta be the HFPA), Slumdog Millionaire for Screenplay, Gomorrah , Kung Fu Panda for Animated (sic), WALL•E for song, Slumdog Millionaire for Score.

adam k. said...

Glenn, I am not copying!!! I was saying Slumdog, Fincher, Shanley ever since nominations were announced.

Besides, in the two where I didn't copy you, I was right on both ; )

Why didn't you predict Bruce Springstein???