Thursday, November 16, 2006

Guess the Golden Globes (Pt. 2)

OK. Let's discuss the movie stars. That's the whole goddamn raison d'etre of awards shows anyway, right? Help me in the comments and over the weekend, I'll update my Oscar Predictions. Ready... Set... Globe.

Best Actor
I'm bored already!

I kid. Sort of. But at least the Globes will shed some light on this relatively tepid year for lead actors. What is going on? It's 2003 only without the holy trinity of Depp, Penn, and Murray? I've bolded what I think would be my predictions today. Feel free to quibble in zee comments.

Drama: Nicolas Cage (World Trade Center), George Clooney (The Good German), Matt Damon (The Good Shepherd), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed --my theory is that people will wise up soon about Blood Diamond and their attention will revert back to the earlier film), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Jude Law (Breaking and Entering), Derek Luke (Catch a Fire), Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness), Forrest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)

Musical/Comedy: Woody Allen (Scoop), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), Johnny Depp (Pirates 2), Joseph Cross (Running With Scissors), Aaron Eckhard (Thank You For Smoking), Will Ferrell (Stranger Than Fiction), Jamie Foxx (Dreamgirls), Gregg Kinnear (Little Miss Sunshine), Robin Williams (Man of the Year)

I'm not completely serious about some of the bolded names. But I just can't figure where all these nominations are going to go in a weak year for men...

Best Actress
This is where it gets really interesting... Early on in the year Oscar's Best Actress category was looking to be unusually competitive. But since then, Helen Mirren (The Queen) has emerged as your every other year or so "unbeatable frontrunner." Yet, since the Globes have two separate categories, all sorts of fun & glamorous things could happen for Hollywood's female stars. The big question, from my way of looking at it, is how or if the HFPA members will find room for all four of their oft-favored pets: Scarlett Johansson, Annette Bening, Renée Zellweger, and Nicole Kidman. These women are looking less and less like true factors in the actual Oscar race but should you underestimate their appeal to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? Probably not.

Drama: If you believe the groupthink buzz on Oscar's eventual lineup you've got four strong leaders: Cate Blanchett (The Good German), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), and Kate Winslet (Little Children). BUT... with the Globes you never really know. They've been known to throw major curves. Plus there's still one free spot even if they don't.

Since they love movies stars who knows where this spot could go? Kirsten Dunst (Marie Antoinette --UPDATE: campaigning for a comedy/musical spot apparently)? Nicole Kidman (Fur)? --she is a favorite, Ashley Judd (Come Early Morning) ? --they gave her a surprise nod for De-Lovely, or a rising star like Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby), Gretchen Mol (Notorious Bettie Page) or Sienna Miller (Factory Girl). Who knows... maybe they'll take David Lynch up on his crazy ass FYC campaign for Laura Dern (Inland Empire). Remember how crazy this category was for the Globes in 2003?

Whaddya think readers? Do they kiss Kidman's ass again or look elsewhere? Could this be the only place Dunst scores --or will they accept the comedy designation? Could Maggie continue her rise through the actress ranks? Might the Globes snub one of the four leaders?

Musical/Comedy: I think you can probably ink in nominations for Annette Bening (Running With Scissors) and Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) but beyond the Hollywood royalty there are a lot of possibilities. Beyoncé (Dreamgirls) seems obvious BUT there's the Jennifer Hudson factor to consider. Might they pull a Chicago and nominate both of them as leads? They were both leads @ the TONYs when Dreamgirls was on Broadway?

But if Hudson goes supporting (Where Oscar'll probably put her) we still have two spots available. Penelope Cruz (Volver) is all the rage at the moment and easy to see as a nominee --UPDATE: But though the film is a tragicomedy, it's apparently being sold to the Globe voters as a drama! Hmmmm. You can't really ink her in. Both Scarlett Johansson (Scoop) and Renée Zellweger (Miss Potter) are like finely cut cocaine to Globe voters so both of them could muscle their way in. There's the Christmas timed comedy The Holiday with two contenders (Winslet again and Cameron Diaz) and then there's the real possibility of Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine) or Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) here. Because, sometimes... only sometimes... the Globes rule.



Anonymous said...

There is something about Winslet. They never nominate her for her 'extra' movies.

She has 4 Sag, GG, and Oscar nods all from the same movie!!! (Excluding the 4th Sag, same year but different movie)

So it would be possible for her to get one for THE HOLIDAY, but you must remember the they do love Cameron Diaz & Nicole Kidman(I think she's in). I don't know about Renee...It could be just becuase the movie doesn't look good, but it's Renee for goodness sakes. They love her!

And same for Depp. 3 noms in 3 years and they will nominate him again for Pirates.

Anonymous said...

Winslet has 6 Sag noms, but two of them are for Ensamble, but you get what I mean.

Anonymous said...

ACTOR (Drama)
I think Smith, O’Toole, DiCaprio and Whitaker are locks. I think the fifth spot will go to either Cage or Clooney. But I don’t know, I just have this gut- feeling that Cage will make the cut here.
Also, it’s a longshot but I’d be on cloud 9 if Patrick Wilson snuck in.

Mirren, Blanchett, Dench and Winslet all seem safe. As of now I think Kidman will take the fifth slot- which is fine by me as long as she doesn’t bump any of the previously mentioned four- I’ll be PISSED if Winslet gets snubbed.

NOTE: In terms of Oscar, Naomi Watts might still have a shot even if the Globes snub her… its weird but the HFPA really doesn’t seem to like Ms. Watts. They’ve snubbed her arguably 3 times (Mulholland, 21 Grams, Kong)- even when two of those films received major noms elsewhere. Maybe their just trying to be loyal to Kidman.


eric --i hadn't even realized that about Watts. Thanks for pointing that out.

I'm curious if Dunst could surprise here. She was nominated for Interview with the vampire (then snubbed by Oscar for the same) but she seems like the type they might respond to for a surprise nomination. Young, starry, in a baity movie (even if the bait isn't catching)

it's easy to see them going with Kidman but all hot streaks end eventually and sooner or later they'll have to move on. same with Zellweger and JOhansson. but. maybe all three will be there?


oh and the reason i'm doubtful about Diaz and the Globes this year (even though they love her) is that Winslet is in the same movie. And it'd be kind of hard to consider Diaz worthy with Winslet sharing the screen... i assume this is why Diaz couldn't get any traction for In Her Shoes either since Collette has a habit of blowing other actors away...

Anonymous said...

Actor (Drama):
Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (Venus) and Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness).

Actress (Drama):
Cste Blanchett (The Good German), Kate Winslet (Little Children), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby)

Actor (Comedy):
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), Matt Dillon (Factotum), Greg Kinnear (Little Miss Sunshine), Will Ferrell (Stranger Than Fiction), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking)

Actress (Comedy):
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine), Annette Bening (Running With Scissors), Penélope Cruz (Volver)

Anonymous said...

I think Catherine O'Hara is going for supporting...

adam k. said...

I don't see why anyone would predict Collette in comedy/musical... she has no buzz, plus it's not even a lead role. It's not like they nommed her for In Her Shoes or something. If anyone from her movie will be a surprise lead contender, it's Abilagil Breslin. She is the movie's heart, and has the big musical/dance number. But I don't see that happening either.

I think actress is gonna be Streep/Knowles/Hudson/Bening/Cruz... Renee and ScarJo might have to sit it out unless Cruz goes drama. Is she definitely in the comedy race? If not, Z gets her spot. Hudson I think absolutely will end up here, along with Knowles. One of those two, or Streep, will win it. Really hard to guess. Maybe if Cruz is here, she even has a shot. Bening won't win, though; movie was bad, and she just won this award. Anyway, this category is unusually competitive... you know it is, when Renee has a comedy out and might not even get in. ScarJo might get in.

I think actress is all about Mirren/Blanchett/Winslet/Dench/Kidman. Why would they abandon Nicole now? They nommed her for Birth. She already had to sit it out once last year, they'll want more. Plus, who would take her spot? Other than Cruz, if she gets put here (where will Cruz be???). Is Marie-Antoinette definitely a drama? If so, I guess Dunst has a shot, but I think it's Kidman's.

Actor (comedy) I think is exactly how Nat predicts. Those 5 are the only standouts. Actor (comedy) seems is tough to call until Nicholson and DiCaprio's campaigns are decided... but assuming the former is supporting and the latter is lead, I think Nat has this one right, too.

adam k. said...

Oh, that second "actor (comedy)" was meant to read "actor (drama)". Oops.

Anonymous said...

Who really cares? This is beyond a doubt the WORST year in the history of motion pictures. If it wasn't for a few good actresses and one good actor, Ewan McGregor, I wouldn't go to movies at all anymore. The current vapid and tasteless American culture has invaded and degraded the last vestage of popular art. It's a sad and listless era.

adam k. said...

C'mon, Everett, tell us what you REALLY think.

Anonymous said...

I think Kidman will make it in too. But you've got to make room for one of Haaaaarvey's girls - Zellweger in Comedy or Sienna Miller in Drama. If the latter is going to start to get traction anywhere, it will be with the Globes.

It's not uncommon for them to have 6 actors nominated instead of 5, so that may happen in one of the actress categories this year.

Anonymous said...

Oh, and I loved your description, Nat, of Zellweger and ScarJo as "finely cut cocaine" to the HFPA. Tee-hee, that will stay with me, especially when they both inevitably turn up as presenters on the night!

Anonymous said...

Best actor - drama
1.Leonardo Di Caprio
2.Peter O'Toole
3.Forest Whitaker
4.Will Smith
5.Nicolas Cage

Best actor - comedy or musical
1.Jamie Foxx
2.Will Ferrell
3.Woody Allen
4.Aaron Eckhart
5.Sacha Baron Cohen

Best Actress - drama
1.Helen Mirren
2.Judi Dench
3.Kate Winslet
4.Kirsten Dunst
5.Maggie Gyllenhaal

Best actress - comedy or musical
1.Annette Bening
2.Meryl Streep
3.Jennifer Hudson
5.Scarlett Johansson

Javier Aldabalde said...

I think it's possible that they're done with Kidman and Zellweger. (After hot streaks they tend to stop nominating altogether). Mirren takes Drama; Streep, Cruz and the dreamgirls battle it out in Comedy.

Doesn't Gael have a shot in Best Actor, Comedy, by the way?

Anonymous said...

i'd love to see jude law walk home with an oscar....he's done so many diverse roles. if not this year for breaking and entering he'll surprise one day and wind up with the gold.


lorenzo --i like your best actress drama pics because the combo is a little surprising (but still plausible) ... and isn't that how the GG noms usually go?

everett --I agree that this is a rough year. It's competing with 2003 for worst of the decade so far and it might win.

stephen g --let me dream of a world without Harvey's girls!

adam k the reason i threw Collette into the possibilities is because the film has buzz and where films go, other noms follow. I don't understand why everyone is so down on her chances. Sure, it's not a killer part or anything but it's a well loved movie and if the nominee pool is very diverse and affection for the oft snubbed and always underappreciated Collette ever picks up... who knows. she might even win an Oscar one day. Not for this of course. duh. but i hope y'all hear me.

how long is she gonna have to wait before everyone bows down? she's one of the most consistently fine performers the movies have.

Anonymous said...

If Penélope Cruz goes for Drama, then the actress noms would be.

Cate Blanchet, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Penélope and Maggie Gyllenhaal

Meryl Streep, Jennifer Hudson, Annete Bening, Renée Zellweger, Toni Collette

Winners: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Aaron Eckhart and Meryl Streep

Anonymous said...

I don't know if Penelope Cruz goes in drama or comedy.
"Volver" can be consider a comedy.

Anonymous said...

I think Penelope Cruz would have to be nominated in the drama category, not comedy. Also, they never nominated both actresses from Chicago as leads. Catherine was supporting.
Fun fact(has this ever happened before): There´s a chance none of the actresses in the drama category is American.
I think Laura Dern has a good shot. She´s admired by her peers and she´s the greatest living director´s muse. The movie needs to open though...

Mr. Goodbar

Glenn Dunks said...

"Also, they never nominated both actresses from Chicago as leads. Catherine was supporting."

er, no. They nominated both Zeta-Jones and Zellweger for Lead Actress, but Zeta-Jones went supporting with Oscar.

The acting categories are so freakin' boring this year. I'm not that psyched (even though he was good) about Leo and people like George, Matt, Derek, Forrest just don't excite me. Sigh.

Also, Dave Poland seems to be suggesting that Hudson is lead and Knowles is Supporting. Que?!?!

I'm gonna do proper predix on my blog but I'm thinking:

Actor D: Clooney, DiCaprio, O'Toole, Smith, Whitaker (but if they snubbed O'Toole i would NOT be surprised in the least. He can easily still score with Oscar)
Actor C/M: Cohen, Depp, Foxx, Ferrell, Eckhart

Actress D: Blanchett, Cruz, Dench, Mirren, Mol - just a random hunch I've had about Mol for ages now. I don't think they'll nominate Kidman. Two reason, Fur is dead in the water (but I am still anxious) and she wouldn't attend the ceremony.
Actress M/C: Bening, Hudson, Knowles, Streep, Zellweger - I only say Zellweger because it actually looks half decent, but who really knows...

Paxton Hernandez said...

I did read Poland piece on Dreamgirls. Was that a review? I seem like a campaigning ad paid by Dreamworks. Wtf?!

The Awards season is so boring right now, and with the star ass-kissers of the HFPA things seem to get even more boring. I know two members of the HFPA (Vera Anderson and Gabriel Lerman) that write for some newspapers here and they only talk nicely about stars that agree to be interviewed by them. Therefore, they only nominate stars that are press friendly. Sorry, Laura Dern, or Eli Roth,!

About the Lynch campaigning I wonder if he's going real for it or he's just messing around. Knowing him and thinking about the not-Academy friendly nature of the film in question (which it appears to be brilliant but f*ckep up), I'll go with the latter. = )

Dan E. said...

If ScarJo gets nominated for Scoop, I will be shocked. She was terrible in Scoop. She nearly destroyed the movie.

This was easily one of Woody's best performances ever. He did to Scoop what Depp did to PotC. He turned a crap movie into a watchable movie with a great performance.

Anonymous said...

Nat, i am waiting for your review on FUR, please..

adam k. said...

I guess both Allen and Jackman (and ScarJo) are possibilities for Scoop, but I don't really see it happening. I thought Scarlett was pretty good in Scoop, though.

Does anyone think James McAvoy has a chance in BA (drama)? I guess it is looking like Clooney/DiCaprio/O'Toole/Smith/Whitaker.

I'm expecting the winners to be:
Forest Whitaker
Sacha Baron Cohen
Helen Mirren
Meryl Streep (only because of a Dreamgirls split... but honestly I think one of the Dreamgirls will win... it's just unclear which one as of yet)

Arun said...

Nicholson's been confirmed as supporting-the only question with the departed campaign is where DiCaprio is going to go-isn't it?

Anonymous said...

"...all hot streaks end eventually and sooner or later they'll have to move on."

True that, Nat. In the case of La Pfeiffer, it's just too bad it all had to end before she won her very own little gold guy. God knows the Golden Globes would have helped her 'White Oleander' campaign (or lack thereof) enormously a few years back. What a shame (sigh).


Anonymous said...

The fact that Catherine Zeta-Jones was nominated as co-lead in Chicago makes me think these folks will just pay little or no attention to that sort of thing and nominate according to their convenience: to fit the best performances wherever they can put them.

Anonymous said...

I'm behind, and curious - what mean you by "my theory is that people will wise up soon about Blood Diamond"?

Anonymous said...

Well as far as Dreamgirls after reading the advanced screening reviews it is obvious that Jennifer Hudson will be nominated , but I'm not so sure about Beyonce.


anon --i mean, i don't buy that Blood Diamond is Oscary. I don't think DiCaprio's accent sounds convincing in the trailer (and it's much easier to make an accent sound convincing in a trailer than it is across a whole feature --so I worry) I love Zwick's television work but, imho, he's not there when it comes to cinema.

if there is any surprise from that movie i'm assuming it's Djimon Honsou getting good press again --his career is so all over the place but it'd be nice to see him settle into stardom and start choosing projects more carefully.

Marco oh god. why'd you'd bring up white oleander now i am depressed ;) the Globes abandoning my Pfeiffer in her hour of need when they had previously kissed her ass almost more than anyone's...

everyone I will be shocked beyond shocked. I will eat my shoe if Beyonce is put into supporting. It WON'T happen. I don't care how great JHud is in it. The bigger star never gets demoted. JHud's name still isn't even in the ads fer crying out loud. Clearly Beyonce has the contract a big star gets. Billing, etc...

Anonymous said...

I'm not saying she will be demoted, but I am just saying I don't know if she is going to be nominated at all.

Anonymous said...

The only reason JHUD is not in the ads is because her character steals the show and for people who do not know a lot about Dreamgirls, it would be a surpirse because they are advertising it like Deena is the star , but in actuality in the orginal play Effie is the star.

At least that is what I think, plus advertising Beyonce would garner more ticket sales.

Glenn Dunks said...

Well then it's doing a disservice to Beyonce's chances. If non-dreamgirls afficianadoes think Beyonce is the star and then realise, hey, Jennifer is then it's hurting Beyonce and it could get people confused as to where to place Jennifer.


Effie may be the starmaking role but it's not the star role. This is a story about a trio and since it's a loose Supremes fictionalization, Beyonce is the Diana Ross... hence the lead, even if she's not the lead --a one and only ;)

do you get me?

and people are never not in ads for a surprise factor. it's a contractual thing whether your name is listed. Foxx, Beyonce, and Murphy would probably not appear in something where their names weren't in lights.

bruno --yeah Poland's piece did read as a Dreamworks employee --especially the part about it getting the most Oscar nominations of all time. But maybe he just genuinely loved the movie.

I hope it's that good but i'm trying to keep my hopes down because i get so personally affected by the success of musicals.

Glenn Dunks said...

Well, tbh, he was basing that 16 nomination tally on it getting three best song nominations as well as Beyonce getting a Best Supporting Actress nom, which ain't happening.

The last time a single movie got three song nominations was The Lion King 12 years ago.

Anonymous said...

I understand what you are saying Nathaniel.;)

ePastor James said...

Hey Nate! I'm surprised this is my first comment for you, as I've loved your blog for nearly 2 years now (when I first discovered I wasn't the only loser obsessed with Oscars).

I agree with most of these Globes predictions. Not all, though. You're a little misinformed with your category placement for Actresses. Tom O'Neil had official reports, so let me help you out:

Annette Bening, Running with Scissors
Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine
Cameron Diaz, The Holiday
Kirsten Dunst, Marie-Antoinette
Scarlett Johansson, Scoop
Ashley Judd, Come Early Morning
Beyonce Knowles, Dreamgirls
Gretchen Mol, The Notorious Bettie Page
Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet, The Holiday
Renee Zellweger, Miss Potter

Maria Bello, World Trade Center
Cate Blanchett, The Good German
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Laura Dern, Inland Empire
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sherrybaby
Scarlett Johansson, The Prestige
Nicole Kidman, Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Cruz and Volver moved to Drama about a month ago. Oh boy. Cruz could've easily creamed the Comedy/Musical competition, unless Hudson were to join. This is definite though, I can assure you. Cruz is in the Drama race.

Dunst probably made a good decision going to the Comedy race.

Mol I heard MIGHT be in Drama, but it feels safer to have her in Comedy, so the Globes might put her there, a la Joan Allen. I hope she doesn't get snubbed. She needs to get a campaign ASAP!

Judd might be comedy. The movie has its moments, I've heard.

I bet you they will move Hudson up to lead. But at least you're smart enough to know that she should stay supporting for the Oscars.

Anyway, in bold is whom I have confidence in getting nominated. Bening or Mol or O'Hara could easily lose out to Knowles, but so far, it seems to be all about Hudson and a little about Murphy, haha.

And I really don't think Kidman will make it. If they didn't nominate her for The Interpreter last year, which had better reviews than Fur does, I doubt she'll get in this year. The reviews are laborious and her performance is consistently panned. It's a no.

Mirren, Winslet, Cruz, will she grab that fifth slot? Hello, Blanchett! (Or if German sucks, hello Miller. Or if they hate her, hello Watts, we're sorry for the past.)

Something like that.


i guess I have trouble thinking of Marie-Antoinette or Bettie Page as "comedies" per se. although they have funny moments...


on the other hand, I totally thought of Volver has a tragicomedy... so i guess the Globes will do as they will ;) and don't they always?

ePastor James said...

Oops, I forgot to bold Blanchett above! Oh well.

As far as Actors go, you've got them in the right categories, haha, so I'll just make my predictions for you:

Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Gael Garcia Bernal, The Science of Sleep
Aaron Eckhart, Thank You for Smoking
Will Ferrell, Stranger Than Fiction
Richard Griffiths, The History Boys

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond/The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

A little more interesting, since it's so wide-open for Lead Actor compared to Lead Actress. One month could not come soon enough.

Anonymous said...

As much as I'd love to see him get it, I don't see Johnny Depp winning as Jack Sparrow when he didn't for the first film (and then it was a novel, blow you out of the water experience).

And Volver is definitely a Drama, so count on Penelope for that category!

Anonymous said...

As much as I'd love to see him get it, I don't see Johnny Depp winning as Jack Sparrow when he didn't for the first film (and then it was a novel, blow you out of the water experience).

And Volver is definitely a Drama, so count on Penelope for that category!

Glenn Dunks said...

Whoa, I just read your 2003 globes bit and I thought this bit was interesting in the who got snubbed for best actress bit:

"Naomi Watts 21 Grams is done. Bye-bye."


ePastor James said...

Hehe, yes Nate, I completely agree about Volver, having not seen it at least. It's finally near me at the local art-house theater, saving me a trip into the city so I can finally bestow my eyes to the surely pleasurable experience that Volver is. (Don't worry about me being overenthusiastic--this is how I was before Little Children and I was not disappointed =P.)

I totally agree with you about Marie-Antoinette and The Notorious Bettie Page. Something tells me that Mol MIGHT score that fifth slot in either category, and that since they considered Volver and The History Boys a Drama, they might do the same for Notorious. If not, Comedy just lost another lock, so it's likely to see both Dunst AND Mol. (Yeah, somehow Marie is still considered comedy :\.) It just keeps getting more intense each year!......*Sigh* Yeah.

Anonymous said...

Penelope Cruz deserves win the Globe for Volver!