Monday, December 08, 2008

Golden Globe PREDICTIONS

Tomorrow we'll be hearing from both the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the BFCA but until then let's talk about what we might hear on Thursday. That's when the pre-Oscar nomination biggie happens... The Golden Globes. They're still my favorite precursor because though they do have a semi history of Oscar predictions they also obviously don't care that much about straying from the supposed path. So here are my best guesses of what we might hear Thursday morning. It's actually a tough call in a few ways.

  • Which heavily favored Oscar hopeful do they leave out in Drama if they make room for one of their typically more daring choices (and would that be The Wrestler or Rachel Getting Married... or something else entirely?)
  • Since they've actually restricted themselves to real comedies and musicals this year instead of the usual batch of dramas w/ occasional jokes... what on earth will they choose in the comedy categories?
  • <--- How will they make room for seven buzzing Actress Drama hopefuls in a category that's only five wide? That's a tough prediction since the one that's losing the most Oscar buzz (Angelina Jolie in Changeling) is the one they love in a major way.
  • How many nominations can Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona snag?
Read them and comment here. But please don't take the predictions too seriously. Predicting is meant to be fun. It's only the unruly Globes after all.

42 comments:

C said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Cengiz said...

I'm pulling for Miss Pettigrew Lives For A Day. I really liked it and wouldnt be surprised if it got 1,2 or 3 nominations.

Casey F said...

not enough love for ben button. i think with the star power this film has and its epic scope the globes will eat that shit up. noms across the board

NATHANIEL R said...

casey f --you're probably right.
benjamin button across the board is a saner call.

Anonymous said...

Drama:

Picture:
1. The Curious Case of B. B.
2. Milk
3. The Dark Knight
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Reader
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire (It's possible six nominees)
Surprise: Australia (I don't think so)
Wishful Thinking: Rachel getting Married

Actor:
1. Sean Penn, Milk
2. Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon
3. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of B. B.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
5. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (I think he's the weakest here)
Alt: Josh Brolin, W
Surprise: Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Wishful Thinking: Michael Fassbenger

Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Meryl Streep
3. Cate Blanchett
4. Angelina Jolie (They love her)
5. Melissa Leo (The new Sally Kirkland?)
6. kate Winslet (I don't know why, but I think she'll be snubbed)
Alt: Kate Beckinsale
Surprise: Nicole Kidman
Wishful Thinking: Kristin Scott Thomas

Comedy/Musical:

Picture:
1. Happy-Go-Lucky
2. Mamma Mia! (They love musicals)
3. Cadillac Records
4. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
5. In bruges
Alt: Burn After Reading
Surprise: HSM 3 (YIKES!!!)
Wishful Thinking: Iron... forget it!

Actor:
1. Dustin Hoffman
2. Javier Bardem
3. jeffrey Wright
4. Brad Pitt
5. Paul Rudd (With a weak year maybe he's strongest possibilities)
Alt: Mark Ruffalo
Surprise: Zac Efron (YIKES!!!)
Wishful Thinking: Colin farrell &/or Brendan Gleeson

Actress:
1. Sally Hawkins
2. Meryl Streep (the top contenders)
3. Rachel Weisz
4. Frances McDormand (Two films)
5. Anna Faris
Alt: Emma Thompson
Surprise: Katherine Heigl (she's a star after all)
wishful thinking: Rachel mcAdams

General:

Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger
2. Josh brolin
3. James Franco
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman
5. Michael Shannon
Alt: Dev patel
Surprise: Robert downey Jr. (Supporting or lead?)
wishful thinking: Michael Sheen

Supporting Actress:
1. Kate Winslet
2. penelope cruz
3. Taraji P. Henson
4. Viola Davis
5. Beyonce Knowles
Alt: Rosemarie DeWitt
Surprise: Marisa Tomei
Wishful Thinking: Vera Farmiga

Directing:
1. david Fincher
2. Gus Van Sant
3. Christopher Nolan
4. Ron Howard
5. Stephen Daldry
Alt: Danny boyle
Surprise: Woody Allen
Wishful Thinking: Jonathan Demme

Anonymous said...

Oh I forgot Sex & the City and Sarah jssica Parker in comedy category!!..

NATHANIEL R said...

anon --- "the new sally kirkland" god, you don't hear that every day!

gabrieloak said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gabrieloak said...

I have no idea what the GG group will do this year. I hope they go nuts and surprise us all. I do hope they don't go too crazy over Button. I would like it very much if they nominated Happy-Go-Lucky in the Best Comedy Film category.

I'm kind of hoping, too, that this where RR will pick up some steam.

Anonymous said...

Well, I said the new sally Kirkland because for the fact of "Anna". A small film and an indie actress who won the Golden globe instead stars like Glenn Close or Farrah fawcett. not the psot Oscars career

adam k. said...

I can actually see a scenario now where they L-O-V-E Vicky Cristina Barcelona and it gets like 6 nominations. They could nominate both ScarJo and Rebecca Hall, along with both Bardem and Cruz. And the screenplay. I think your scenario of the above minus Rebecca Hall is more sane. But they could do it, with actress being as empty as it is.

I myself see 3 noms... just Bardem, Cruz and the movie (with Cruz winning). But the screenplay is certainly possible. And if it gets that much love, it could well win the top category. But I'm hoping that goes to Happy-Go-Lucky, which seems like the most critically acclaimed movie left in the category.

I'm mostly pulling for Bardem to get a nod, as it seemed totally impossible before the category emptied out, but would be SO cool. He deserves it.

RahulB said...

The best part of Slumdog Millionaire for me was the score and songs.

And nobody even considers it a contender for anything.

It sucks being alone. :(

Adri said...

Best Actor: Comedy

Dustin Hoffman, "Last Chance Harvey"
Ricky Gervais, "Ghost Town"
Adrien Brody, "The Brothers Bloom"
Jim Carrey, "Yes Man"
James Franco, "Pineapple Express"

Best Actress: Comedy

Sally Hawkins, "Happy Go Lucky"
Emma Thompson, "Last Chance Harvey"
Frances McDormand, "Miss Pettigrew"
Rachel Weisz, "The Brothers Bloom"
Tea Leoni, "Ghost Town"

BEst Musical/ Comedy

"Happy Go Lucky"
"Last Chance Harvey"
"Miss Pettigrew"
"Ghost Town"
"The Brothers Bloom"

Glenn said...

Let's not forget, the Globes nominated Woody Allen for Best Director for Match Point, too.

Anonymous said...

Do not underestimate Ricky Gervais for a Comedy Actor nod... the foreign press loves him and he's already bagged two wins.

E Dot said...

Gasp. You shunned Kate in supporting. Throw her back in! Throw her back in! Before it's too late!

18 Year Old Blogger said...

I would like to see Comedy Actress:

Sally Hawkins
Emma Thompson
Rebecca Hall
Sarah Jessica Parker
Meryl Streep

Glenn said...

I'm still hangin' on to my Anna Faris belief. Truly and honestly.

Anonymous said...

Nate,

1) Why do you think Dark Knight will be ignored for Picture and Directing?
Not that I care that much. I'm just curious.

2) I agree (and hope) that Kate will win the Oscar. But I think Meryl will win the Globe. I think the Globes love her more than Oscars do. What do you think?

3) I also don't feel very confident about Kate's supporting nomination. But Henson out as well? I consider your prediction very risky, so I kind of like it. (Even though I want you to be wrong for Kate's sake :p)


Jim

NATHANIEL R said...

1) i do expect THE DARK KNIGHT to do well at the Oscar nominations. I've been predicting it for a long time now. But I didn't want my Globe predictions to be an exact match (since they never exactly match Oscar's eventual favorites) so I decided to assume they wouldn't get quite at insane/feverish about it as Americans did. It's just guesswork.

2) I think Winslet wins the Globe. The Globes do love Streep but they haven't been stingy with her at all and there won't be as much of a collective reason to say: it's time again. I mean she's won two already this decade.

3) I feel better about Henson's chances at the Oscars than at the Globes. I just think the Globes are an ideal get for the more famous people like Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei.

NATHANIEL R said...

i've also changed the best pic predictions to throw BUTTON in... cuz i got nervous about leaving it out ;)

Michael said...

I really, really hope that they don't forget about Amy Adams in Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day. One of the most delightful performances of the year and in my mind it would be a big snub if she isn't nominated. And just include the film in best comedy/musical while your at it HFPA :-D

Janice said...

Re: song and score. Unfortunately the closing song was one of the better things about Australia (at the very least I was wondering "whose voice is that?" as my sweetie and I headed out the door. Nobody stayed to watch the full credits, but there were only 10 people in the theater anyway.) Score, I'm not so sure of, the score is all over the map - just like the film.

I'm glad they're nominating "genuine comedies" rather than "dramadies" (because it's so hard for comedy work to get acknowledged anyway) but merging the two screenplay catagories seems a huge mistake and a terrible snub to writers - who also have so few opportunities to get acknowledged, whose work when good is so important (and everybody else takes credit for when the film is good) and who are kicked to the bottom of the movie industry food chain.

Anonymous said...

Is "Rachel Getting Married" really classified as a drama? Globes don't always agree with Satellites' categorization.
I think that "The Dark Knight" is respected enough to get at least three nominations: for best director, best score and Heath obviously.
And what about "The Reader"?

Katey said...

If Pineapple Express scores anything in the comedy categories, that'll keep me giddy all the way through Christmas.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon -- according to gold derby it was (rachel = drama i mean)

Derek said...

Totally agree with you on Dev Patel. He's completely adequate, but it's moer like "Least Bad Performance in the Movie We Really Liked"

Pasha said...

And here are my thoughts...

Film – Drama

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire

Film – Comedy/Musical

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Burges
Mamma Mia!
Wall-E

Actor – Drama

Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Actress – Drama

Cate Blanchett – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You for So Long
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Actor – Comedy/Musical

Josh Brolin – W.
Brendan Gleeson – In Burges
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Synechdoche New York
Mark Ruffallo - The Brothers Bloom

Actress – Comedy/Musical

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Sarah Jessica Parker – Sex And The City: The Movie
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep – Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson – Last Chance Harvey

Supp. Actor

Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey Jr – Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

Supp. Actress

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet – The Reader

Director

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme – Rachel Getting Married
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

I think that Milk and Slumdog are the only films (so far) that are becoming common denominators for BP nominations. They're locks.

E Dot said...

Nate, you sure they're announcing the Globes today? On the website it says they're announcing it Thursday.

I'm confused....

NATHANIEL R said...

i said Thursday in the first sentence of the blog post.

dec 11th

E Dot said...

Yeah, I just realized that. Sorry.

I haven't had my coffee yet....

Cal said...

If they're going to nominate George for Leatherheads they may as well go for Renee as well. God knows, they love her.

I'm not sure Jenkins is gonna make the drama category. I see Brad above him and probably Josh Brolin for W. He feels more likely to enter at SAG.

Ivan said...

DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

COMEDY
Burn After Reading
Happy Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Sex and the City: the Movie
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

ACTOR DRAMA
Leonardo DiCaprio
Clint Eastwood
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke

ACTRESS DRAMA
Cate Blanchett
Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet

ACTOR COMEDY
Javier Bardem
Pierce Brosnan
Robert Downey Jr./Iron Man
James Franco/Pineapple Express
Dustin Hoffman

ACTRESS COMEDY
Sally Hawkins
Sarah Jessica Parker
Beyuonce Knowles
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson

DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
Stephen Daldry
David Fincher
Ron Howard
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey Jr./Tropic
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Michael Shannon

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz/Vicky Cristina
Viola Davis/Doubt
Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler
Debra Winger/Rachel Getting Married
Kate WInslet/The Reader

SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire

adam k. said...

Nat: Meryl has actually won THREE globes this decade, if you count Angels in America, which you should, since, well, she did win a globe for it.

NATHANIEL R said...

i was counting angels. so i musta forget one of hte others ;)

john said...

It might be to early to talk about Globe winners, but i honestly think Anne Hathaway has a really good chance of winning the globe. Firstly, for the sheer shock factor, since the other nominees will mostly be perennials, and because of this they won't know who to give it to, Meryl or Kate, so they'l just give it to Anne, the young 'starlet'. Almost like when Cate Blanchett won the globe for Elizabeth and the other nominess were the usual suspects like Meryl and Susan Sarandon, they decided to go for the youngest nominee, which had the shock factor.

Adri said...

I totally agree with John that there should be some kind of shock factor, and with Nathaniel that the Globes shouldn't just be Oscar predictions (so tht everybody is thinking about what "the others" like, instead of what they actually liked themselves.

I like the "In Bruges" suggestions (I thought it was a drama though?) and the ""Miss Pettigrew" suggestions. The shock of an early release movie still being remembered!

Best Actor: Drama

Colin Farrell, "In Bruges" (or comedy?)
Brad Pitt, "Benjamin Button"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino" (or comedy?)
Hugh Jackman, "Australia" (let's go "Hollywood")

Best Actress: Drama

Abigail Breslin, "Kit Kitteridge: American Girl" (THAT would throw a wrench in the works, for this deserving performance)
Angelina Jolie. "The Changeling"
Cate Blanchett, "Benjamin Button"
Nicole Kidman, "Australia" (on with the stars)
Michelle Williams, "Wendy and Lucy"

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, "Miss Pettigrew" (this is her best part this year, and she is great)
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "Benjamin Button"
Beyonce Knowles, "Cadillac Man"
Zooey Deschanel, "Yes Man" (Comedy support is allowed)

Best Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson, "In Bruges"
Jeffrey Wright, "Cadillac Man"
James Franco, "Milk"
Michael Shannon, "Revolutinary Road"

Best Drama:

In Bruges
Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Australia

MRRIPLEY said...

KATE WINSLET NOMMED 5 TIMES AT THE GLOBES AND NO WIN EXPECT HER TON WIN FOR EITHER LEAD OR SUPPORTING,ALSO THE BFCA DID NOT GET SCREENERS IN TIME FOR R/ROAD TO BE INC IN THERE NOMS.

SolShine7 said...

I can't wait for the announcements. I need to get my predictions together.

Aaron said...

okay, here goes...

Picture, Drama:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
(***yes i know, I cheated, but the globes seem to always nominate more than 5 films and I can't decide whether to exclude TDK or The Reader--they orgasm over Harvey Weinstein--so I'm leaving both in!)

Picture, Musical/Comedy:
Cadillac Records
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia! (God help us!)
Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Director:
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Actor, Drama:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Actress, Drama:
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
(***although they could throw a bone to their beloved Nicole Kidman for the failed Australia--they nominated her for Birth!***)

Actor, Musical/Comedy
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Adrien Brody, Cadillac Records
Pierce Brosnan, Mamma Mia!
Robert Downey, Jr., Iron Man (this will happen!)
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Actress, Musical/Comedy
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Scarlett Johansson, Vicky Cristina Barcelona (they're obsessed with her, and the fact that she's somewhat good in this movie will make them ecstatic!)
Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Beyonce Knowles, Cadillac Records
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

***In shore, I expect Kate Winslet and Robert Downey, Jr. to receive two nominations. The Globes will have a wet dream over Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Kristin Scott-Thomas and Melissa Leo snubbed. Clint Eastwood snubbed---am I completely evil for thinking/hoping that????***

Anonymous said...

No Blanchett for actress? At risk of her fans torching your house?

THAT'S bold.