Monday, December 15, 2008

Oscar Prediction Revisions

New commentary, new photos, new critics winners, and ranking adjustments in ALL CATEGORIES -- there are way too many pages. I will go in and fine tuner with precursor details in the tech categories when I get the chance. My head is spinning. Have you listened to the precursor-centric podcast yet?
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91 comments:

Robert said...

Would the inclusion of WALL-E in Best Picture (a high hypothetical) make up for the whole Crash fiasco?

At least the bad taste element of picking Crash. The homophobic element, obviously requires further atonement.

Anonymous said...

I still don't think Jolie is in. Didn't she receive this much precursor love last year, and the category wasn't even as packed. I think her husband has a better chance.

Anonymous said...

Robert, I'd really like to see Wall-E in the mix for Best Picture as well, but I just don't know what they would knock out. The Dark Knight seems a little vulnerable now because of the Globe snub, but I don't think that will stop it from making the shortlist.

Lampshade.

Hayden said...

I'm so interested to see what you do with Supporting Actor.

FenixPahedi said...

Nathaniel, just personally i think Wall-E should go 6th and RR in 7th place. I mean, Boston clarified Wall-E is battling and winning more than RR for a spot.

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking...
+ Wall-E
- Frost/Nixon
in the best picture category!

Reasons:
the others seem like locks...F/N seems like it wont get in best picture, more like director
Wall-E was the better film + more box office plus pixar has built the momentum to get one of its features in the best pic
like chicago had moulin rouge! behind it,this has ratatouille
but Wall-E has no chance of winning!

adam k. said...

To make up for the Crash fiasco, WALL•E has to be nominated for best pic (the bad taste element), AND Milk has to WIN (the homophobia element). We'll see if that happens.

I think WALL•E is probably #6 at this point, though I agree that it's that and RR, and then everything else is basically out. I think people really do want WALL•E to place, but there might just not be room. I agree that it has the momentum, not just from Ratatouille but from ALL Pixar's previous greatness (and for my money's it's Pixar's very best yet).

What could lift it up, though, really, is that preferential balloting system. Those voting for WALL•E will have it at #1. People LOVE it. Who really LOVES Frost/Nixon? It, if anything, seems like the one mere "placeholder" among the five (does that word mean that? it makes sense in my mind). I think that could be its downfall. Langella and the screenplay could (and would) be reward enough.

Preferential ballots are what I think will also knock out Jolie. I think we'll see a repeat of her Mighty Heart situation. I think people now (GG, BFCA) are just voting for it cause they think academy voters will vote for it. And maybe they will. But not at #1 or #2. I certainly don't think Jolie should be in yellow, or should be ahead of Sally Hawkins. NYFCC, LAFCA & Boston trump being in a Clint Eastwood film. At least they should, in a sane world.

And what happened to Leo? From the #1 position and a LOCK, to falling out of the top five entirely? Ouch. I think either Leo or Brad will make it, it's just tough to say which one. Eastwood's globe snub doesn't do much for his chances.

Peter Nellhaus said...

I'm waiting for Nathaniel to make a comment or two about Jerry Lewis getting the Jean Hersholt Award.

Anonymous said...

Jolie is ranked way too high. She's #5 at best at this point.

alexis said...

so far, i don't like the way that some of your predictions go.

- "milk" is a lock for bp, "benjamin button" not so much.
- jenkins is out. except for a nomination to the sag awards, i don't see posibilities for him. the 5th spot (assuming that eastwood is almost certain for, y'know, be eastwood) will be a pretty face battle. or maybe (and i hope that happens) the 5th slot will belong to michael sheen.
- as others say, way too high for jolie. that slot should be for the lovely hawkins. also, leo is more a 6 than a 7.

the rest is ok. i guess only sag left clear a lot of things, including my fear that winslet will let out of the oscar this year.

Anonymous said...

Jolie won the Golden S. I read on Awardsdailyforums that all the winners from GS drama did manage a Oscar.

rosengje said...

I take issue with your outside contenders for Best Actor. I don't see how Michael Sheen can be considered more likely for a nod than Benicio del Toro. While I think it is unlikely that the latter's film will garner enough support to crack into the top 5, he has to be considered the biggest surprise threat...

rosengje said...

I would even be more inclined to put Steven Soderbergh on my top 10 for director than Woody Allen (and I am an ardent VCB supporter). Keeping in mind the weighted ballot, I think Che is more likely to inspire strong reactions and #1 slating than something like Frost/Nixon.

John T said...

I agree with almost all of these, though I would have kept Jolie at Red (I think that most of the Clint love this year has been transferred simply to one solo nomination, so is other film will be left in the dust, and so she's battling it out heartily with Leo-Hawkins seems more Yellow than Jolie).

But I have to disagree with Best Actor. I just don't think the Academy will repeat another Leo misses-Kate makes it scenario. I think they throw out Jenkins, and put in DiCaprio, and Best Actor becomes a threeway race between Leo-Penn-Langella.

Anonymous said...

rev rd is this years atonement!!!!

mrripley said...

my acting pics

actor
penn
jenkins
dicaprio
rourke
langella

actress
winslet
jolie
streep
hawkins
hathaway

s/actor
brolin
downey jnr
ledger
hoffman
franco

s/actress
cruz
tomei
winslet
henson
davis

mripley said...

golden sats winners

jenkins
jolie
hawkins
gervais
de witt
shannon

pic

slumdog and happy go lucky.

Guy said...

Where's Mike Leigh on your Best Director page, Nat? He won the NYFCC award -- he should at least be on the "directors who have won something" list.

I have a hunch there's going to be one completely out-of-the-box Best Director nominee. Mike Leigh? Matteo Garrone? Steve McQueen? Crazy, I know, but who saw Fernando Meirelles coming?

jimmy said...

is that official about jerry lewis?

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

is that official about jerry lewis?

Yes. I've heard he's not exactly the nicest or friendliest guy ever, but I think he should have gotten it long before now for all the work that he does for the MDA.

About the changes though, I agree with the majority so far that I think Jolie is ranked too high. I didn't know that about the Golden Satellite winner always being nominated, but there's always a first time for everything. It might be because they still haven't seen everything else while Changeling has been out a while, and mostly because of the star fucking part.

Anyway, I feel that if Eastwood gets any love this year, then it will definitely all go to him being nominated for Best Actor (and maybe some for Best Song because I think it would be entertaining in a it's so bad it's good way if he actually sang on Oscar night). Ironically, I feel that getting nominated might be his biggest hurdle, but if he does get nominated he's going to win. I feel the same way about Winslet too right now. I don't want her to win a career award so early, but if she does make it past M'Leo, KST, and Blanchett, she'll probably win.

NATHANIEL R said...

I think everyone is forgetting that a Clint Eastwood picture (Changeling) is way more up the Academy's alley than a Michael Winterbottom picture (A Mighty Heart) ... i fail to see any reason why Jolie wouldn't have an easier time getting nominated for Changeling.

I personally think she was MUCH better in A Mighty Heart and that a nomination for Changeling is ludicrous based on the performances of her competitors but Oscar voters don't vote based on my opinion ;)

And if she was as weak of a candidate as everyone seems to think why has she had no trouble whatsoever in the precursor fields? I mean she's faring much better than Kate f'ing Winslet.

Vanessa said...

Kate Winslet for Oscar!

Vanessa said...

Kate Winslet for Oscar!

Anonymous said...

I am so angry about this Jolie thing. The best top 5 for me is:

Streep
Winslet
Thomas
Hawkins
Hathaway

I have seen none of these performances but I've read a lot of reviews. That is why I would hate to see Jolie getting a nomination instead of Thomas. I just recalled Leo. Well, there isn't room for everyone. Maybe Leo instead of Hawkins? I dunno...


But I have the feeling that Eastwood's power over the Academy won't help Jolie. I can't remember an acting nomination in any of his films that had not recieved critical acclaim. Although statistically, it would bw weird for Jolie to get two consecutive Golden Globe nods (for Drama!) and two consecutive snubs.


Jim

Anonymous said...

Sorry I meant Leo instead of Hathaway. Oh, I forgot. I have seen one of these perfs. Hawkins'. A great one!


Jim

Anonymous said...

Outside of some internet circles, I don't really see any backlash against Cruz. Some people are obviously bored of her winning, but I don't see this feeling expanding to voters of any of the upcoming organizations. She's a media darling and a newly-respected actor. Plus, Cruz is working the campaign trail really well so far. Also, she's sort of helped by the fact that Supporting Actress is a more low key category than Picture, Director, Lead Actor and Actress, where a backlash is more likely to occur.

gabrieloak said...

Nominations I Hope Don't Happen:

Wall-E-Best Picture
Doubt--Best Adapted Screenplay
Philip Seymour Hoffman--Best Supporting Actor
Clint Eastwood--Best Actor

Anonymous said...

kate fans are really annoying
I'm really sick of her

Anonymous said...

Woody Allen's 1999 picture Sweet and Lowdown got two acting nominations (for Samantha Morton and Sean Penn). Just thought I'd point that out, but still, it would be the first one in nearly ten years.

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

"Isn't she on that show where they arrest people in the 70s?" I almost died laughing. You should seriously consider doing this year's symposium as a podcast, even if it's just a condensed version.

As for your Oscar predics, I think Eastwood is out for best actor simply because, like you say, if the Golden Globes couldn't see fit to nominate him, then his chances are looking grim. It's Penn, Rourke, Langella for locks. Pitt, Jenkins, Eastwood and Dicaprio are battling it out for those final two spots. Pitt is in because he's Benjamin Button's best shot at an acting nod, if that makes sense. I think Dicaprio is in too.

Best Supporting Actress seems solidified, as strange as that seems. I think you're right for your top five. We're looking at Cruz, Davis, Dewitt, Tomei and Winslet.

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

And regarding Kate Winslet in "The Reader", I will say this. She's making me feel like Rachel in "Rachel Getting Married." I love Kate. But the Academy's like Bill, telling me that they don't want Kate to think they don't want her. Sometimes I don't want her.

NATHANIEL R said...

theknownothing except the academy went for Clint for actor in MDB when precursors weren't really going there.

i still think he's in. I mean the media wants it so badly for some reason. There was a big profile this year with some inane headline like Does Eastwood even care about winning an Oscar.

hilarious.

yeah, no. He doesn't care. That's why he keeps releasing movies in DEcember and campaigning.

also: the Kate situation has a simple remedify: say no to category fraud. It's just so stingy to actual character actors to have movie stars constantly hogging their limited opportunities to shine.

[/broken record]

gabrieloak how can you be anti-cute little WALL-E? That'd be such a refreshing move on the academy's part. The Best movies of any given year aren't always dramas about estranged couples or the holocaust or biopics of famous politicians or entertainers.

Anonymous said...

Winslet was the runner-up for Best Actress at the Southeastern Film Critics today, so it appears that people are following that "just say no" philosophy.

adam k. said...

Jolie isn't doing THAT well in precursors. She was always gonna get a globe nod, so that's really a non-issue. And BFCA have 6 slots, and nominated others who are clearly not making it (hi, Kate Beckinsale), so why is it so valuable for Jolie? It's not like she's out there winning critics' awards.

I just really don't think she's getting #1 on very many ballots. It just reeks of "nobody really loves this perf, everyone just THINKS everyone else does" and that'll cost her in the final stretch.

If she gets into SAG, I'll reevaluate, but right now I think it's Streep, Winslet, Hathaway, Hawkins, with one spot up in the air. I think it's Jolie, Leo, KST, and to a lesser extent Blanchett fighting it out. Of those, I'd bet Leo has the most passionate support, but it's really very up in the air.

adam k. said...

And let this be a lesson to you on declaring anything a LOCK too early, Nathaniel ; ) You even mentioned when doing it how you were breaking your normal rules about giving something the "green", but you did it anyway and then look what happened:

Milk: major snub by globes
DiCaprio: now down to 6th in your predictions
Shannon: having a rough time of it, certainly not a "lock" anymore...

Nothing is a lock before the season begins!

Sorry, just had to point that out... the irony of your not heeding your own advice was just too blatant too ignore ; )

NATHANIEL R said...

adam k -regarding "angelina was always going to get a globe nod"

really?

isn't that what everyone would have said had cate blanchett made the list? Only she didn't.

***

I don't think there's any absolutes. other than that SOMEONE will give Clint Eastwood things every time he makes a movie. ;)

as for CHANGELING making the final rounds. I'm not claiming she's a lock but honestly, to some degree, i have to bet against my own opinion because invariably there is a performance nominated in this category that I just can't get behind at all as a "best" of the year. ;)

NATHANIEL R said...

and yeah i did break my own rules and i regret it. But at least i'm a little less exciteable than many other pundits who are ready to hand out trophies months before a movie opens. ;)

adam k. said...

I think Angie is way more of a globe favorite than Cate. Cate just gets a lot of noms because they split categories and there's more room. Angie gets a lot of noms (and wins) because they love having her there, because she's Angelina Jolie.

Just ftr, I predicted the Angie nom and the Cate snub ; )

Come on, everyone who's anyone (yourself included) called the Jolie globe nod a mile away. Oscar is a whole different ballgame.

I can definitely understand your wanting to bet against your own opinion, but maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised : )

Wouldn't Streep, Winslet, Hawkins, Hathaway and Leo be nice?

adam k. said...

"But at least i'm a little less exciteable than many other pundits who are ready to hand out trophies months before a movie opens. ;)"

WORD. Kris Tapley. Cate Blanchett. Yikes.

Anonymous said...

I knew DiCaprio's stock would fall eventually, and people here said he was locked for a nod.

I loved Angelina in "Changeling," so I'm hoping that she manages a nomination. This might be the sole time where I like the POWER OF CLINT aiding someone worthy and needing the push.

Unless Michael Shannon pulls a rabbit out of his hat on Thursday with the SAGs, I'd eliminate him from the top five and bump up James Franco. It's his time.

NATHANIEL R said...

yeah i overestimated DiCaprio. I should have remembered the most powerful rule in the Oscar book: IF IT'S A FICTIONAL CHARACTER THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT.

Jimmy said...

I agree with Adam k, Cate Blanchett may have had 7 Globe noms in the past decade, though Angelina is clearly their number 1 on their list of favourite women. I mean they even gave the Globe to Natalie Portman, when it was assumed by practically everyone that Cate would win for The Aviator.
Oh, and Nathaniel, that pic you posted of Brad + Cate on the Actress predicition page is kinda...HOT.

adam k. said...

I don't think James Franco will ultimately make the cut, simply because I have a hard time believing Milk can get two supporting nods at oscar when it had zero at the globes. I think Nat's lineup makes sense, although yeah, if Shannon doesn't pop up at SAG, I'll be worried.

Anonymous said...

I sometimes dont agree with you but I have to admit you have guts and you know how to make predictions. I saw Changeling and I think Angelina is magnificent on it, but I also have my doubts about her, because of last year snub. She made the Globes, BFCA and SAG and still she was left out. If she gets a Bafta nod even without the SAG (which I think she will be in)then I think the Academy will have to nominate her.

Styx said...

I think that "Milk" will be a much bigger player at the Oscars than the Globes snubs suggest. That's why I'm comfortable with predicting the nods for both Franco and Brolin. Though in my warped head, I'd rather see Franco nominated for "Pineapple Express" than "Milk", though I loved both performances. I know the former will never happen with the latter in play.

Anonymous said...

Tom Cruise over Emile Hirsch, I mean i can understand where your coming from but still. Do you think Micheal Sheen might have a chance in supporting like Catherine- Zeta Jones in Chicago

Joe Reid said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joe Reid said...

[Typos now fixed.]

Wow, so many things to discuss!

1) So Blanchett's 7 GG nominations and 2 wins for movies outweigh Angelina's 3 nominations for movies? (The fact that her two wins came for TV movies are pretty significant, I'd say.) The Globes loooooove Cate.

The fact of the matter is, if your name isn't "Sally Hawkins" (and to a lesser extent "Anne Hathaway"), NOBODY is getting critics awards. Not Angelina, not Kate, not Meryl. They're all going to have to ride to the nominations on their celebrity, love for the performance, and love for their respective films. Given the Academy's affinity for Clint's movies (and Clint's actors in particular), I don't see why Angelina getting nominated sounds so crazy.

2) The Globes nominated Tom Cruise for "Tropic Thunder." That's not getting repeated. So one slot opens up. Everyone regards Ralph Feinnes for "The Duchess" as iffy at best. Two slots open up. Michael Shannon hasn't won anything from anybody this season. Robert Downey Jr. is in a mainstream comedy. If the Academy takes a shine to Milk in ways that the HFPA didn't, why wouldn't they pick two of its supporting actors?

Victor S said...

Is it wrong that I like Michael Sheen a lot more than Frank Langela in Frost/Nixon??
I feel sad for him because his performance is so great and he has no shot at all in the best actor race.
This would be case where I would mind a category fraud.

Billy D said...

I'm predicting a Winslet snub (in Best Actress). I just feel it.

Billy D said...

Forgot to say that I HOPE it doesn't happen and that she wins, but isn't there usually one big glaring snub every year?

NATHANIEL R said...

victor s it's a slippery slope! if you allow it once cuz you like a performance you're basically okaying it each and every time.

and we all know where that leads. why not just get rid of the supporting categories altogether and just have best performance awards with 10 nominees? ;)

it's not wrong to prefer Sheen. I do too. But Nixon is obviously the "get" in terms of awardage. It's just the biopic rule. The most famous character is the draw.

Anonymous said...

Don't you think there might be some Clintf***ing beyond best actor category, like for instance "Get off my lawn" ending up nominated for Best Picture or Best Screenplay?
I'd love to see Franco getting in even if Brolin isn't. He's adorable and has great chemistry with Penn. I felt like something was lost when he disappeared for a big part of the movie. I didn't expect to see that after his 'fake dicks and hair eating' interviews. The role itself is too ordinary, though ;(

Howler

HalfBloodPrince said...

Satellite's Best Actress Drama Winners

I noticed that the Satellite Best Actress Drama winners have all gone to be nominated/win the Oscar.

Here's the Satellite Best Actress Drama Winners:

1996: Frances McDormand - Fargo (Won Oscar)
1997: Judi Dench - Mrs. Brown (Nominated for Oscar)
1998: Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth (Nominated for Oscar)
1999: Hilary Swank - Boys Don't Cry (Won Oscar)
2000: Ellen Burstyn - Requiem for a Dream (Nominated for Oscar)
2001: Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom (Nominated for Oscar)
2002: Diane Lane - Unfaithful (Nominated for Oscar)
2003: Charlize Theron - Monster (Won Oscar)
2004: Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby (Won Oscar)
2005: Felicity Huffman - Transamerica (Nominated for Oscar)
2006: Helen Mirren - The Queen (Won Oscar)
2007: Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose (Won Oscar)
2008: Angelina Jolie - Changeling as Christine Collins ???

HalfBloodPrince said...

I think you guys are really underestimating Changeling's popularity. In the U.S. it got mixed reviews. But in Canada and countries in Europe like France and the U.K. it got excellent reviews, because there isn't much of an Eastwood/Jolie backlash there. I'm from Canada, and all the Canadian critics praised Jolie's performance. The critics didn't use superficial comments like the negative U.S. reviews did, such as her lips are too distracting.

Anonymous said...

I've come up with a better idea. Let the Academy nominate for best picture:

C hangeling
L et the Right One In
I ron Man
N ick & Norah's Infinite Playlist
T ropic Thunder

NATHANIEL R said...

anonymous...dear god. that would totally mindf*** all the pundits, wouldn't it.

halfblood -- remember that it's american industry people that vote on these prizes. so critics are only vaguely influential (usually by consensus only) and foreign critics even less so.

Changeling got pretty decent reviews but so did 25 other movies so it's tough to say how much the academy will like it. Especially when they have other Clint Friendly options where they could throw their hero worship.

I know people get sick of me "bashing" Clint but it's not bashing so much as asking people to be reasonable about it. CHANGELING would have never done as well as it has in the precursors if Clint's name and iconic pull wasn't attached. It's just not strong enough and there's many other period pieces and true stories that are better this year.

I wish people could see this. It's even true of people I love. If Meryl Streep, for example, gives a performance that's completely equal to that of an unknown actress... Streep gets the better reviews. End of story.

Critics and audience members and AMPAS voters are only human. They build up alliances to people they have loved over the years and it colors their views of any project that comes down the pike.

I'm guilty too: If Michelle Pfeiffer gives a performance roughly equal to that of a complete unknown I'm going to love the Pfeiffer performance more.

It's human nature to support your heroes. I just wish people could see this instead of just constantly proclaiming that Eastwood is the best filmmaker ever rather than really looking at his work and only praising the best stuff to the heavens.

NATHANIEL R said...

on another note: i put the screenplay writers in photos just for the helluva it. Is it because I love Thomas McCarthy and wanted to show him off?

Anonymous said...

I think Mandy Walker is easily in there for cinematography, Nathaniel.. if not for the win, either. She's picked up two WINS from the precursors, along with other nominations.

Jude said...

I feel bad for DiCaprio. He never gets a break. Meanwhile, Dirty Harry farts and get nominated.

Anonymous said...

I feel sad for Dicaprio.
The same story comes again.
Every body is in only he is out....
He is a really good actor.
So sad people often hate him.

E Dot said...

Why no Mandy Walker for Cinematographer? She'd be the first woman ever nominated in that category. In a year with so many firsts, I wouldn't count her out...

Michael Clark said...

I really enjoyed the discussion in the podcast. It's nice to hear opinions and share laughs about the parts of Oscar season the people at the water cooler are oblivious to. Please keep them coming!

FenixPahedi said...

You didnt make ANY changes in some technical categories... I mean, Wall-E is not in the final 15 in the visual effects category. The two music categories, i think, do not reflect what has been happening with the awards season...

FenixPahedi said...

I mean, do you REALLY think they'll nominate Myley Cyrus for Bolt? Jack White wrote a far better song for Quantum of Solace

Styx said...

No women have ever been nominated in cinematography? Seriously? That's CRAZY!

I say leave out both Miley Cyrus and that godawful Bond song from the song lineup this year! It's all about the Boss and Peter Gabriel anyways. Though seeing Clint SING would be kind of awesome in a "no this really isn't happening" sort of way.

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

Regarding Adam K.'s logic, he sort of does have a point. I really can't picture a lot of people putting Jolie in their number one slot (or even number two slot), and with a weighted balloting system, that could cost her the nomination. That's probably what cost her the nod last year, though that same logic doesn't explain Blanchett's nod for "The Golden Age."

I think Leo is in because the people putting her on their ballot are going to put her at number one. I can honestly see Winslet being passed over for "Revolutionary Road", but for now, I think she'll make it.

Hathaway
Hawkins
Leo
Streep
Winslet

Scott Thomas is kind of sputtering at this point. She landed a Globe nod, but she needed that. She couldn't even land a BFCA citation and they nominated six leading ladies. If she misses SAG, she's out. And Leo will probably get a SAG nomination. I still think that Hathaway is a threat for the WIN at this point.

adam k. said...

The people who vote for Blanchett LOVE Blanchett. That's what last year proved. She definitely has her core of hard-core supporters within the academy, i.e. people who will even put the "Golden Age" perf at the top of their ballots.

There has yet to be any proof that Jolie has that same kind of fanbase. Her fanbase, I think, is more fanboys out on the street than people in the academy. And it really just feels like people are just voting for it because they're expected to. She does have their guilt over last year's brutal snub, but the structural lack of support that enabled that snub is still in place.

I think Winslet will make it in on "Year of Kate" buzz, and the fact that lots of voters just wanna give her at statue already. And now that Penelope is kind of monopolizing the supporting category, and Hawkins' streak is blocking any momentum-building for Streep, Kate's "WIN" support may start to solidify in lead.

I mean, if ANYONE from RR makes it, it'll be her. I have a hard time seeing them just shafting the whole film.

adam k. said...

Oh wow, Nat, I just realized, you have The Reader getting a LOT of nominations, considering you don't think it'll do well.

Supporting Actress
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Art Direction
Makeup

...is not a bad haul at all.

Kamikaze Camel said...

"I'd eliminate him from the top five and bump up James Franco. It's his time."

As much as I like Franco in a "wow, he's gorgeous" sort of way, and I'm sure he's great in Milk and Pineapple Express (I have unfortunately seen neither) I find it hard to believe that "it's his time". What about his filmography reads "wow, how come James Franco doesn't have an Oscar nomination?" Anapolis?

Is it possible that Kate Winslet could get a Best Actress nomination for The Reader? I know it's unlikely with Winslet also competing with her RR performance, but she's getting more wins for The Reader than Revolutionary and then they could give her the statue without feeling bad that a) they're stopping Cruz from getting hers and b) they're not awarding category fraud.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I think that James Franco has "arrived" in the sense that an Oscar nomination would be deserved. He's had a great year with "Milk" and "Pineapple Express", has had notable roles in the past (there was "An American Crime" recently, and he should have been nominated for an Emmy for "James Dean"), and has had popular success with the "Spider Man" films. He also has that Ginsberg film coming up next year. People have been nominated for having far less notable years, so don't make it seem like the idea of his time arriving at a nomination is a foolish one, b/c it's not at all.

Anonymous said...

***Should have won*** (he was nominated for an Emmy for "James Dean")

TheMedwenitsch said...

I still say Michelle Williams for Wendy & Lucy.
I guess it's mostly wishful thinking (and I haven't even seen the movie, I just love the actress... Oh I'm so bad!), but somewhere in my head it sounds possible.

NATHANIEL R said...

Fenix -- huh? I did. WALL-E is no longer on there because it didn't make the finalists of the bakeoff

as for the song categories: BOND songs do not do well in this category. You can see my previous report on how much the Oscar ignores Bond movies (even their songs) here.

what's more, score & song nominations at precursors are rarely predictive of the Oscars in the way acting awards are.

Colin said...

Is there even a chance that Heath Ledger might feel like enough of a lock to Academy voters that he doesn't garner enough #1 votes to get nominated?

Can anyone imagine the uproar if that happens?

Anonymous said...

I really like Clint overall, and I though Changeling was decent if just entertaining but Gran Torino is awful!! The other actors and the screenplay in general is terrible. I can't for the life of me figure out why Eastwood chose this script when he usually has some taste. The only reason I can think of is that it was the only role he could see himself playing. It's pretty similar to his M$B performance except a couple shades grumpier and ridiculously racist (literally not racial slur is used twice it gets pretty ridiculous the amount of racial terms for asians there are) the song is also terrible. Ahh...I hope they don't nominate him and that is because I like him.
-Simon

Anonymous said...

also, i really don't think clint will get nominated by the academy..if they actually see the movie they will see how bad it is ...it is honestly too bad to nominate for anything

Anonymous said...

but it is also really funny ...so its not really painful to sit through I just can't tell if Eastwood is in on the joke.

Franny Glass said...

Nathaniel, why is it that you dont like Kate Winslet??? Is it because she is a so-called star (as opposed to "real" actors"? But so is Anne Hathaway, and you seem to love her. Hathaway is a fashion darling, her personal life was all over the place last year, presents herself as this century´s Audrey Hepburn (as if), and has a much weaker body of work than Winslet.

So why is it that you love Hathaway and dislike Winslet?

NATHANIEL R said...

Franny sometimes I feel like I am living in bizarroland. Truly.

Kate Winslet is among my all time favorites.

nick plowman said...

Kate Winslet in Rev Road was so amazing. I just love watching her, when I am not wanting to be her. [/creepiness]

Anonymous said...

RGM also won the best screenplay in NYFCC.

FenixPahedi said...

NATHANIEL Sorry. For some strange reason the categories were in gold but i could only see your previous predictions. Now i can see what you made for us this time.

And yeah maybe you're right with the Bond thing but i feel uneasy about Sex & the City getting nominated, same thing for Bolt...

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, i really admire your work. Im from Mexico and i have read every single year your predictions, and i think you are the best!

Talking about best actress you think there are a really chance that kate winslet loses her oscar?

sorry for the english

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

Is it possible that Kate Winslet could get a Best Actress nomination for The Reader? I know it's unlikely with Winslet also competing with her RR performance, but she's getting more wins for The Reader than Revolutionary and then they could give her the statue without feeling bad that a) they're stopping Cruz from getting hers and b) they're not awarding category fraud.

She definitely needs to go leading for The Reader. Not only because I think it's her best shot to win, but more importantly so I can one up my competition in the Best Actress contest. :)

Seriously though, I noticed on Gold Derby that she hauled in many awards yesterday from all kinds of small critics groups, but they were mostly for The Reader with a few being a combination of The Reader and Revolutionary Road. I can believe the Globes would fall for the category fraud because they're the Globes, but I wonder if the SAGs and Oscars are going to fall for it.

John T said...

Sex and the City is no longer eligible for Best Song, according to the eligibility list.

NATHANIEL R said...

i'm updating now

FenixPahedi said...

I wouldnt really drop Scott Thomas just now... She might be this year's Laura Linney

adam k. said...

Except Linney didn't get a globe nomination.

Melissa Leo would be this year's Laura Linney.

FenixPahedi said...

True. Would be nice to have them both as well as Streep and Hathaway. Hawkins with the remaining spot.

I'm ver sorry to say this because i love her, but i predict this wont be Kate Winslet's year, not even if she's nominated.
The lack of love for Jolie from the Academy members will prevent her from being nominated.

Anonymous said...

the supporting actor race is quite interesting. the top five seem sort of like a lock (ledger, downey, hoffman, brolin, shannon) but if the situation like you describe happens, where the category gets blown wide open, the sixth place is wide open. franco has gotten some recognition thus far, but has a very quiet and not striking role. ralph fiennes has two strong supporting roles this year, and seems deserving of getting in the top five, but may get a vote split. bill irwin is a similar position as franco. dev patel does not deserve it nor is he really supporting. tom cruise shouldnt be in question. that leaves, EDDIE MARSON! when i saw the film, he blew me away even more than hawkins and provided the most interesting character and contrast to the lead, a great supporting role. he has also got some precursor recognition, and i am thrilled his chances are rejuvinated. i see the category as pretty sealed up, but put me down as definetely rooting for this underdog!