Saturday, February 21, 2009


Last year all the BAFTA acting winners went on to Oscars and I'm noticing 'round the web that that's exactly what everyone seems to be predicting again this year including me. Occasionally someone will throw in another name for one of them (though no one is foolish enough to assume that Heath Ledger will lose that posthumous Oscar). But will this 4/4 repeat really occur two years in a row? Can BAFTA really be that "accurate" for lack of a better word (I hate the business of other trophies purposefully acting as tea leaves) and if they are will the BFCA membership turn green with envy en masse?

I'm starting to worry that the lovely Cruz will be booted out of the photo op once they exchange those British masks for the American bald men. (It's an exchange/recycling system, right? If it isn't, how much is Helen Mirren paying for storage alone on her 2006 haul?) The recent news that Javier Bardem will not be attending the Oscars seems like another cosmic sign of a Penépole loss. But then... I can get a bit superstitious with awards.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
- Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize winner for Physics
Are you having any last minute changes of mind about who might prevail? Or perhaps you're totally over awards season and wishing I would speak of something anything else? If so... fear not. The 2008 celebrations are almost over.


Robert said...

I just fail to believe that AMPAS will hand out 4 statues to actors playing fictional characters (I know I've said this before).

At this point I feel very apathetic about the winners. I'm hoping for upsets in every category simply to make things interesting (also, my favorite doesn't seem poised to win in any category, so bring on the upsets!).

I'm looking forward to my first ever spectacular Oscar party more than anything. Then I'm ready to move on to 2009. Alas some 08's still haven't opened here. Wendy & Lucy and The Class will be later in the month. March is just too late to be catching up on the previous year. I'd almost rather they cut my city off the end of the prolonged theatrical run and speed up the DVD.

jimmy said...

would love to see:

maybe one of those 4 will win.

Howler said...

I think Amy Adams is very possible. Pene has "Broken Embraces" and "Nine" coming next year, so she'll have another chance very soon.
Other than that, I think it's set even for Rourke - I was shocked that Penn didn't win BAFTA award.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Hmm I am now considering the possibility of an upset between these 3...

I do believe we will have either Rourke or Winslet, but not both of them...

And I don't know if Cruz has it all locked up... Why oh why do I keep see Marisa Tomei coming? I must be crazy...

Mia said...

i'm looking optimistic for meryl.

18 Year Old Blogger said...

I was at an Oscar party last night at Peter Gruber's house/office and it was thrown by all 4 of the past Female Best Picture winners (Cathy Schulman and 3 others). Many voters were going up to Viola Davis and telling her that they voted for her. I found that to be very interesting. I smiled at this lady--when she said "I want to go over to Viola and tell her that I voted for her, but Taraji Henson is right next to her."--and then when she saw me laughing, she grabbed my hand and told me I didn't hear anything. I said to her that I really thought Tomei was the best of the nominees and the lady standing next to her said she wishes Tomei would win becuase her first win was so controversial..

And speaking of Cathy Schulman, she actually said a speech at the party and said that she heard Jack Nicholson say Brokeback Mountain and thats why she didn't get up at first.

So I think one of the Doubt girls will win supporting actress. And I also think that if Streep wins then Penn wins. If Winslet wins then Rourke wins as well...

Alex said...

Okay, this is incredibly childish, I know, but I thought I'd point out that "Pene" maybe isn't such a great little cute nickname for Ms. Cruz since "pene" is Spanish for penis.

Billy Held An Oscar said...

Last year at this time I felt the Tilda Swinton win deep in my bones.

I have the same feeling about Viola Davis this year.

I hope the old bones are right.

Rick said...



Rick said...



Jorge Rodrigues said...


Meryl and Rourke = ?

I think:

Kate and Penn
Ledger (I was afraid that he might lose but I just can't see it happening)
Davis/Tomei (I'm not sure about Penelope)

I do believe that:

1. If early in the night Penelope wins then Rourke and Winslet all get wins.
2. If Tomei wins, Rourke wins.
3. If Davis wins, Streep wins.

Notluke said...

I believe we'll indeed see one, if not two, ladies from Doubt on the stage tomorrow night. If not for any other reason, then because the actors constitute such a big part of the voters, and nominations clearly show that their branch did appreciate the film.

Or maybe I am saying that only because I watched it yesterday and liked it. A lot, actually. (In fact, I've just realized: I found each movie that seemed a conceivable Best Picture nomination a month ago but didn't become one after all -- TDK, Rev Road, WALL*E, Wrestler, Doubt -- better than each of the five that were nominated. How sad is that? I can live that some films I like are simply not to Academy's tastes full stop... but this year it's almost like they made their selection just to spite me. ;( )

Anonymous said...

Why has Javier Bardem been so absent this award season? I know he's not nominated for anything but still, he doesn't really need a reason to be there. Are he and Cruz still together?

Anonymous said...

I feel that neither Sean Penn nor Mickey Rourke will win. I think it will be Langella (who portrayed a real person).


Anonymous said...

Nat, it's three years in a row. Whitaker, Mirren, Arkin and Hudson also won both the BAFTA and the Oscars the year before, so it would be the third year in a row that will happen (though no one seemed to notice in the 2006 ceremony).

Amanda said...

I'm thinking there'll be a BAFTA threepeat, but I also think Cruz could lose to Tomei or Davis.

But hopefully she doesn't.

Faux said...

Well, Supporting Actress is an interesting race. But I don't think Cruz is so IN DANGER. First, because none of her fellow nominees won a major this year.

I don't think Henson's one-note performance will win. I think Henson and Adams have her nomination enough. Tomei won a controversial Oscar years ago, and certainly Cassidy is not the best performance so far from the bunch. Davis is outstanding but she has internal competition (Adams) and Afro American competition (Henson), and her career is not as Dench's or Straight's for to win for a few-minutes and one-scene performance.

Also, Penelope has:

International megastar+ exuberant beauty+ funny+ Oscar baity role+ scene stealer+ Woody Allen+ Harvey Weinstein+ Latin/Spanish factor+ Afro American split vote+ Doubt split vote+ Volver snub+ Jason Weinberg+ LAFCA+ NYFCC+ BAFTA+ Spirit Awards+ every nomination for a major+ Elegy(at same year)...

If it's not equal to Oscar (considering only Kate Winslet won majors Penélope didn't), I don't know what it is...

PS Bardem will not attend, but I think they would call Ben Kingsley.

Arkaan said...

Yeah, I think Rourke is more vulnerable then Cruz. The race has been so clearly between Penn and Rourke (when in doubt, go with the one in the best picture nominee) whereas supporting actress has been off. While I don't think Cruz is a lock, I think she's sitting comfortably.

Paul Outlaw said...

Penn - Winslet - Ledger - Cruz
for better or worse.


yeah in some ways the Rourke win at the Indie Spirits felt like the culmination so I guess if he loses tomorrow it won't matter that much. the comeback is pretty stellar as is

John T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John T said...

Okay, I'm just hearing about Condon & Mark ditching the "previous year's Best Actor/Actress presenting the opposite gender award, and I call sacrilege. That is one of my all-time favorite traditions at the Oscars, if not one of my favorite things about the Oscars, period. I want Gil Cates back.

Rob said...

I think Penelope will win, certainly.

She's paid her dues in Hollywood, and has turned out fine work. I'd be really surprised if she lost. Aside from the Winslet placement debacle (which cost her at SAG, BFCA and HFPA), she's won just about every major award.

So Winslet, Cruz and Ledger.

Actor is too close to call.

Carl said...

"Milk" wins Best Picture, for the reasons I described in an earlier post.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

yeah in some ways the Rourke win at the Indie Spirits felt like the culmination so I guess if he loses tomorrow it won't matter that much. the comeback is pretty stellar as is

That's an interesting thought which could definitely be true because I know the Spirit Awards aren't the most accurate precursor to go by. However, I'm superstitious like you about the Oscars, and while I had already flip flopped to Rourke around the time of the BAFTAs, as stupid as it sounds, I believe that it's a sign that he'll win since his dog just died recently. I know that didn't have any impact on the vote, nor should it, but I take it as an omen that he'll win because it would be too cruel for him to lose his best friend and the Oscar during the same time frame.

I didn't know that about Javier Bardem not attending, but I also see that as a sign that Cruz won't win tonight even though she seems like the frontrunner. Although with this race, it's really hard to tell since the critical favorite like Amy Ryan last year doesn't seem to win, and because Winslet won all the other precursors.

PS Bardem will not attend, but I think they would call Ben Kingsley.

Oh, I hope they don't do something like that, but they probably will. It will be too reminiscent for me when CZJ won and Sean Connery just happened to be the presenter they got to hand out Best Supporting Actress that year. I know that he had won the male equivalent award, but I'm sure there were other BSA winners that would have done it, and not made it so obvious that CZJ would win. Of course, it was pretty predictable anyways, but before I knew Connery was giving out the award, I thought that there was a slim chance that someone else could win.

Carl said...

Oh, well...I really did believe that the voters would come to their senses and surprise with "Milk". Does the Academy ever post the totals and, if so, when?