Friday, February 27, 2009

My New Paralyzing Fear

This pic of Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) and Penélope Cruz at an Oscar after party is my new favorite picture ever. Are they about to reenact the Vicky Cristina Barcelona darkroom moment? The Spaniard definitely has a drink in her and The Alien Goddess is arguably the movie world's most famous polyamory advocate, so...

This photo also reminds us that for two consecutive years the FB Award and the Oscar have honored the same Supporting Actress! Even before my own awards existed in their public form two years running agreement in any category is rare. It's something to celebrate. Which means we're due for something truly disheartening or terrifying in 2009... like another Cold Mountain or A Beautiful Mind sitch. You know the kind: The Supporting Actress Winner is either embarrassingly over the top or harmless / completely bland but either way she's the worst of the five nominees. She sweeps the year's supporting honors anyway.

I must steel myself for something hideous in 2009.

My 2009 Oscar predictions arrive on April 1st but we'll do a little build up to that in late March. I hope you're sticking around. Who are you imagining in the 2009/10 race. Have you thought of it at all? Or perhaps you'd prefer to wait like a more sensible person? I've heard they exist.
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42 comments:

gee-nee-us said...

Nicole Kidman for Best Supporting Actress.

NATHANIEL R said...

Nicole Kidman does not scare me. Come to me Nicole. Come to me!

Anonymous said...

Dear God, I hope Nic can pull off a nomination. She looked divine at the Oscars (why Nicole did you ever mess with your dazzling face?)

This year *seems* like a good year all around (for BP and actors/actresses in particular).

Herzog said...

Patty Clarkson for Best Supporting Actress!

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

And the Oscar goes to...Rudy Huxtable for "Madea Goes to Jail."

NATHANIEL R said...

HA!

Alex in Movieland said...

I can agree on Zellweger as being the worst of the 5, but Jennifer?! not the best, but not the least deserving. [Am I thinking Marisa? who knows, I need to rewatch all 4 movies; but still]

it's gonna be one of the lovely Lovely Bones ladies, depending on who goes supporting. Sarandon? Weisz? Saoirse?

Glendon said...

Let's hope the oscar curse doesn't torpedo their careers. I'll be selfish and wish they've never won and never will win awards if it means I can have as much film goodness from them as possible.

Robert said...

I must admit I am excited for this year. New movies from Jonze, Scorsese, Malick, Tarantino, Ang Lee, Mann, Aronofsky?

If I had one Oscar wish for 2009 its that Christopher Plummer lands an easy nod for The Last Station. For Christ's sake... someone nominate that guy for an Oscar already!

NoNo said...

I have thought about it but I'm trying not to because I feel like I will be tired out come the Critic Awards start pouring in but here are my predictions:

I think "Nine" will fall in the way of a mild success such as "Atonement" or "Benjamin Button". I doubt it will be a a avalanche "Slumdog" or flop like "Austrailia".

I think Mo'Nique will sweep some critic awards possibly a Globe and/or Sag nomination but she won't be nominated for Bafta or Oscar.

I think Almodovar will once again be snubbed in the foreign film category. Maybe he'll get a Screenplay or Best Actress nod if he's lucky.

Unfortunately, with the massive success of "Slumdog". Fox Searchlight won't be viewed as the "The Little Studio That Could" anymore. Maybe if they pushed harder with "The Wrestler"

There will be a film that comes from no where (a la "Slumdog", "Juno" and "Sunshine" but it won't be from Searchlight.

There will be that flops hard...my guess "The Tree Of Life" even though I like Terence Malick.

I think there will be a back to back nominee but it won't be Meryl.

THERE I SAID IT! I'm not talking about it anymore until April!

Shawn said...

Michelle Williams in Shutter Island.

Anonymous said...

Michelle Williams I think is going to be BIG this year!

James Colon said...

I know that there is essentially NO chance of this happening, but I'm kind of rooting for a Jenkins-ish Best Actor run for Sam Rockwell in MOON. He has been too good, too often to be so routinely ignored, and something about MOON seems amazing. I could be wrong, and the movie could be terrible, but that's my current hope for Oscars 2009.

Jason D said...

Mo'nique....


:shudder:


In any event, I know you don't want to talk about the 09/10 race too much...lest you jinx your goddess...

Carl said...

This one is kind of "out there", but I do think James Cameron may get a look for either directing or writing "Avatar". The only reason I can think of to put a science fiction 'summer' movie into the Oscar limelight of an 18 December release is that Fox must think it has awards potential. Could be "Titanic"...or it could be "The Fountain". With Cameron's ability and track record, it is safer to bet on the former.

Someone pointed out in an earlier thread that this is a year that will be hip-deep in female leads in biopics, so it may be too early to guess which (if any) will have the heft to make the next shortlist. Having said that, I still look for Emily Watson doing massive de-glam for "Within the Whirlwind" to pick up a nod. At any rate, she will be one of my "pick five" next month.

Iggy said...

Love that picture!

If Weinstein is back -and he's back if he has managed to have two acting winners that had been competing against each other half the season- I'd be looking at Nine. If the movie survives to itself and its hype and with so many actresses, maybe Fergie could make it? **evil face**

john said...

Or they could go with Kate Hudson, even if it seems that she's just doing a bit of singing and dancing. And lets never forget the golden rule, never ever underestimate Judi Dench. If she can get in for Chocolat and win for Shakespeare in Love she could get in for Nine.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Avatar
Whatever Works
Broken Embraces
The Road
The Tree of Life
The Lovely Bones
Watchmen
Up
Untitled Mandela (with a superb Morgan Freeman which I believe it's true) project
Shutter Island
The Informant
Public Enemies
Nine

and so many others...

Oh what a great year! I just hope that it can live up to its expectations.

Ah! And «The Lovely Bones» success will depend immensely on Mark Wahlberg's performance... If he can pull it off, we are looking at a major contender... For Saoirse, for Mark, for Peter Jackson, for Best Picture...

«Shutter Island» with DiCaprio as well...

John D. said...

Brenda Blethyn in London River
Brad Pitt in Tree of Life
Judi Dench in Nine

and please Academy, give Christopher Plummer his first Oscar nomination for The Last Station!!!

Katey said...

I feel like Amy Adams will win a trophy one of these days for a supporting wife/ pretty ingenue role that is the least deserving, but she's so darn charming we won't begrudge her anyway.

NATHANIEL R said...

john -- well Judi's role is very fun in NINE. we'll see. the problem will of course be that there's so many good roles in NINE.

NATHANIEL R said...

so yeah. surest bet of 2009: a SAG nomination for ensemble of NINE.

Alex in Movieland said...

surest bet of 2009:
a new Colleen Atwood - Sandy Powell battle in Best Costume Design. The divas are in the house. Sandy has a better shot: The Young Victoria looks delicious. but English royalty two years in a row?? NO NO NO so Milena Canonero wins yet again for The Wolf Man!

NATHANIEL R said...

alex... powell vs. atwood vs. canonero is EMBARRASSINGLY RICH. so it'll never happen ;) i worry that Powell's movie is never going to actually open.

Lisa said...

I'm hoping for Meryl in "Julie & Julia". It may not have great expectations, but Meryl is God and she can do anything. I bet you she nails the voice.

Arkaan said...

Carey Mulligan for AN EDUCATION. She was awesome in Bleak House. She got raves for the recent Scott-Thomas headed production of THE SEAGULL. She's eminently photographable.

I'm hoping everything that plays at CANNES gets a 2009 release. Wait, what are you laughing at?

I hope IFC realizes that one week releases for monstrously difficult films IS A STUPID FUCKING IDEA (see 4 months, Hunger, Che).

Anonymous said...

I predict no oscars and not even a nomination for Leo DiCaprio this year, no matter how good he is in Shutter Island. There! But his co-stars are all bound to score something, even if it's only a nod. LOL

Kamikaze Camel said...

Powell's nomination will come for The Tempest, not The Young Victoria. Just a hunch. All three of Julie Taymor's three movies have been nominated for costume design so there's clearly something there.

I've already done my 2010 Oscar predictions. Frightening, I know. I'm snubbing Shutter Island (four Best Pic/Dir nominations in a row is freakin' HARD to do y'all - not even Eastwood has done that, and he as a Nelson Mandela movie out so I predicting that, ugh).

I've predicted we'll get a female director nominated, two Nine ladies for supporting (Cruz and Dench - has the Academy had a chance to see Dench sing on screen?), a lead and supporting double nod for Matt Damon, and many other crazy/sane things. Also, Coco Avant Chanel for Costume Design seems like a good bet that not many people may have taken note of.

Can I just say that I hope they keep the acting presentations the same next year because I want (no, I NEED) somebody like Cate Blanchett or Catherine Zeta-Jones or Angelina Jolie or Juliette Binoche presenting Mo'Nique. It needs to happen and I am not joking. Can you imagine Binoche discussing Mo'Nique? It'd be the greatest thing ever.

adam k. said...

That would indeed be awesome, Glenn. Although I bet it'd be Zellweger or someone. Can you imagine Connelly doing it? Wow. Goldberg would make the most sense, but she just did one this year. Plus I don't think they aim for sense. Haha, maybe JHud would do it. That's funny.

Indeed, I think Mo'Nique may turn out to be the "embarrassingly bad" supporting sweeper of Nat's nightmares. Or who knows, she might actually be great. I just think it's weird that she's been so overt about having planned to win an oscar for this role from the moment she read the script. That just seems, well... wanting (and indeed, presuming) waaaay too much. Will they really bite?

Also, I feel like all the Nine ladies will be canceling themselves out, as there are just way too many of them. Am I the only one who thinks it could be too much of a good thing? How will anyone stand out??

Or maybe it'll be like Nashville? Four supporting actress noms at the globes...?

adam k. said...

Oh and to Alex, I think that YES, JConn was indeed the least deserving of the five. It's not that she was even bad, per se. But all four of the other nominees were stupendous. Whilst JConn was merely adequate/good.

But it's not like Renée Z, for whom one could make a legitimate case as WORST supporting actress of the year.

Jim T said...

I hope: Streep for the gold, Ronan for a second nomination, Dench for her 7th, Kidman for her third and Avatar for "greatest entertainment since Big Bang" with or without awards.

I predict:

1)"Nine" will not get a nomination for best pic only if Jesus shows himself and demands it!

2) Swank will learn how it feels to be nominated and not win.

Anonymous said...

I think Mo'Nique is a possibility for a nomination but Imelda Staunton stands out as more likely for a win. ( thank you Kamikaze Camel)

Alex in Movieland said...

Nathaniel, you do know who the most likely safest bet Oscar nominee will be? :D ADMIT IT! Hilary Swank for Best Actress! I can bet you it will be #1 in people predictions come April.

Anonymous said...

Can not wait to see An Education!
Carey Milligan, Sally Hawkins, Emma Thompson, Cara Seymour, Alfred Molina, Peter Sarsgaard, Dominic Cooper, and Rosamund Pike??
-Ben

NATHANIEL R said...

Alex --I ADMIT NOTHING.

in truth there are LOTS of biopics this year for the women so I'm not sure anybody is even close to a sure thing. I see nothing as easy to predict as STREEP in Doubt this year... so maybe this actress pscyhic contest will have more variety. Last year kinda sucked on the variety front with everyone's predictions early on.

John T said...

I haven't seen the musical, but why isn't there more talk about Loren being nominated? She's a living legend, hasn't been nominated for a competitive Oscar in 45 years, will turn 75 next year, and is one of the last great living stars of Hollywood's Golden Age. Is it a glorified cameo in the play, and even if it is, doesn't anyone think they'd amp it up (since Harvey knows she'd be the easiest actress to campaign).

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

This might turn out to be good news for Nathaniel, but over at AD, when people were discussing the films to watch out for next year, someone said that Amelia is not that good from a test screening, and that it seems unlikely to be an awards contender. I thought she was believable because she didn't overly criticize it too much like I think a plant for another studio would, imo.

This maybe some bad news for you though. After that review of Amelia, someone else said that he had saw an early screening of Public Enemies, and that it needed a lot of work if it wanted to be a major player next year at the Oscars. He said no one really stood out, and that it was lacking a central core to the story.

As for next years awards, I'm already bracing myself for Nine to have at least five perhaps even six spots in supporting actress at the Globes, because they love musicals and because they'll do as they're told by Harvey Weinstein.

Also, while I think she will surprise a lot of people in Precious, and perhaps it's not her fault that she had to make a living doing crap on VH-1, I don't know if I could take Academy Award winner Mo'Nique seriously. I know other winners and nominees have some embarrassing things that they've done, but being the judge/host of Charm School might just be the lowest of the low. Plus, I have a feeling if she does win, she'd be back on VH-1 within the week with a new edition of CS, or some kind of other show that's a copy of a copy of a copy since it seems that's all they can put on the air anymore. I could easily see her in a Flavor of Love type of show after she wins emphasizing how she may have success in her life, but her life is still empty because she doesn't have a much of famewhoring guys aged 18-30 willing to do anything for her so they can get the most screentime. I know I should be open minded especially as she does look great from what I've seen of Precious on YouTube, but all I can think of is how Smiley was robbed, and Mo'Nique will forever be tainted to me because of that. No way did Saaphyri deserve to win!!! Not that I actually watch any of those shows or anything.

Finally, while I want Michelle Williams to win someday, I don't know if I could take her winning supporting actress, which I think is the category for her for Shutter Island, next year since they would probably be back to the old format. I can't even imagine how she could keep her composure through that.

Paul Outlaw said...

Melissa Leo wins Supporting if nominated (like the Zllwgr did).

Anonymous said...

I think that Penelope's trying to grab a feel there! Scarlett must have rubbed off on her a bit from "VCB".

Glenn said...

Adam, I don't think Mo'Nique has been doing anything like that. Somebody asked her at a post-screening Q&A what she would be wearing when she wins the Oscar (it's on youtube) and she makes a joke "nothing!" before doing appreciative thankyou kisses to the audience member. And the director is on record as telling her "this could ruin your career."

People like Mo'Nique don't generally get superlative hyperactive reactions to their acting so I am ready to believe that the hype is justified and that she truly is amazing.

...hmmm.

NATHANIEL R said...

john t... yeah the mom role (Sophia) in the play isn't a big juicy part like the others but the "Nine" song she has a hand in is a sweet moment

nine, Guido, nine
nine months of the year
to make you appear.

woodstock said...

i tend to forget about the oscars until october. in november i start to get crazy and by january i'm fully obsessed.