Tuesday, January 09, 2007

DGA Noms = Best Picture

My internet went bye-bye just as important stuff started happening. argh. Anyway the DGA announed their nominees:

So, the DGA Nominations have confirmed what many have been expecting all along: Oscar’s Best Picture Oscar nominees will be Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. (that happens to be exact PGA Nominee lineup this year) Remember that DGA nominations are typically more predictive of Oscars Best Picture lineup than the Best Director lineup.

So what is there left to argue about? Well, the directors branch within AMPAS is miniscule compared to the voting membership of the DGA and their eventual Oscar shortlist is always similar to the Guilds but skews ever so slightly towards more auteurist or critical champs. So expect Frears (The Queen), Scorsese (The Departed), and Iñárritu (Babel) to hold their positions. Dayton & Faris (Little Miss Sunshine) or Condon (Dreamgirls) will lose their spot to one of the presumed runners up: Clint Eastwood- Letters From Iwo Jima or Paul Greengrass –United 93 or any one of the Hispanic longshots: Alfonso Cuarón - Children of Men, Pedro Almodovar –Volver or Guillermo Del Toro –Pan's Labyrinth. May the best directors triumph! (That’d be Almodovar and Cuarón in case you haven't been paying attention)


But who knows, maybe the DGA list is the Oscar list too? Here's what could be going down: Oscar members prone to vote for the lone director maverick spot. Those who have voted for people like David Lynch, Atom Egoyan and Mike Leigh in past races probably have too many critical darlings to choose from this year. Plus the studios are still hooked on that risky last two weeks of December game despite Oscar not following the old schedule that always rewarded that game. I'm so glad Oscar isn't waiting till March anymore --I like the film year to be the real calendar year and not some weird Miramax-fashioned January to the next March thing. But I'm not at all happy that the studios are still trying to pretend that Oscar is on the old schedule. Maybe they'll learn this year if Christmas's critical hits (Letters From Iwo Jima, Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men) all bomb w/ the golden guy?

P.S. I apologize for repeating myself. My mind goes round in circles this time of year.

related pages:
Oscar BEST PICTURE Predix -update in progress
Oscar BEST DIRECTOR Predix -update in progress

14 comments:

Bruno Packer said...

The DGA nod for Little Miss Sunshine seems a little bit hypocrital to me. Especially just a year ago when the DGA fired Rodri after he shared directing credit with Frank Miller for the kickass Sin City. Sounds pretty double moral standard to me.

And Nathe, It wasn't just your computer. The whole Blogger system just cracked down.

Craig Hickman said...

It sure did.

I'm so happy to see Condon there, whether or not he makes the cut with AMPAS.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Bruno, It seems to me that the Little Miss Sunshine pair are seen as a working pair and are thus allowed (much like the Wachowski Brothers), but Rodriguez and Miller were fired (or, didn't Rodriguez quit?) because a director isn't allowed to share co-director credit with somebody other than a professional partner who is part of a team. If Eastwood and Spielberg decided to co-direct a movie they wouldn't be allowed to share credit. But two people who work together as a team are - such as the LMS pair and the Wachowskis and Siegel+McGehee (The Deep End) and others.

AAAnyway.

In terms of the DGA. Very surprised to see the LMS pair on there, but I think Kris at InContention was right. Sending screeners out over Christmas vacation was not a good move for Eastwood and co.

Inarritu? Blah. Why is this movie everywhere? I didn't even think it was that well liked! Ugh.

Nat, you'll probably be right when it comes to the "too many auteurs" theory. I'm still thinking either Greengrass or Cuaron could show up in the final Oscar list though. It just feels like something that branch would do. I hope they do, anyway.

Bruno Packer said...

So, ladies and gents, we are looking at our Best Picture nominees for 2006:

(in alphabetical order)

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

As much as I love The Departed and sincerely enjoyed Little Miss Sunshine it's sad to say the Harvey Weinstein's pervy ways ruled again the season. Biggest campaigns = Sure nomination.

I still think the directors' nominations won't match exactly the Best Picture line-up. I'll go 3/5 alas 2001, with Condon and Dayton-Faris not making the final cut with AMPAS.

adam k. said...

It really seems like there's a critical consensus behind Greengrass. He's won the most awards of anyone by far, apart from Scorsese. I expect him to make the cut with AMPAS.

And didn't everyone think Eastwood was a lock? What happened??? It seems like he and his film went from "lock" to "good luck" overnight. Was it really just a botched campaign? I think people must be over Eastwood finally and willing to give him a pass this year... plus subtitles are offputting to many... and his two films might be splitting votes. I guess there are a lot of possible reasons for the film's fall.

Or maybe it'll sweep the nominations anyway? Stranger things have happened.

Bruno Packer said...

Or maybe his Give me another Oscar now! approach didn't ignite voters.

I love a lot of Eastwood's films but this strategy of pushing Letters for a 2006 release seem so blatantly greedy and to award-whory too everyone except for the NYC Eastwood Worship Temple (NBR, Manhola, A.O. Scott, etc.)

Anonymous said...

Cuaron will be nominated! The Children of Men is gaining momentum and it´s not too late..not for the Oscars. COM is the movie everyone will remember years from now and that´s Cuaron´s credit.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Adam, agreed on Greengrass. Sure, other branches may not watch the film but I'm confident that the director's branch will (especially with it winning so many Best Director prizes). They always seem much more open. I mean, they nominated The Battle of Algiers, City of God, Fellini, Almodovar, etc. They watch the movies.

On the matter of Eastwood. I think the campaign was botched. I think the move to 2007 was just too late and not enough people have seen the film.

...thing is, Academy members probably have. It might be like Spielberg last year with Munich. although that had DGA and possibly PGA too, but I can't remember.

I actually think the director race has gone back to being interesting now that Eastwood and Condon aren't such sure things.

Nick Davis said...

I'm thinking Pan's Labyrinth looks good for Director and Screenplay. Better, at least, than Children of Men. I'm expecting some major "surprise" play for that movie from AMPAS.

right said...

While I liked Little Miss Sunshine as much as anyone, did anyone really think the directing was all that great? While of course it's hard to separate elements of filmmaking, that seemed much more of a screenwriting and performance achievement than directing.

Children of Men or United 93 (hell, even Iwo Jima)... THOSE were well-directed movies.

Neel Mehta said...

A lot of the strengths of Little Miss Sunshine were in its writing and acting, but the nimble pace strikes me as a function of the directors. If they get Oscar-nominated, it'll be a little bit like Gus Van Sant for Good Will Hunting, actually getting noticed despite being overshadowed.

Also, Steve Carell's gas station purchase was $19.79, surely a Dayton/Faris in-joke.

Anonymous said...

well, forgive me, but I'd be happy if the LMS duo got an Oscar nom...

and this is what Wikipedia says about DGA (don't know how reliable this is):

"The DGA will also sometimes waive its rules in particular situations: a rule that films can only have one director, adopted to avoid producers and actors lobbying for a director's credit, has been waived for recognised directorial teams like Joel and Ethan Coen (the refusal to waive this rule over Sin City led to the resignation of Rodriguez)."

so I suppose they though Frank Miller didn't play an important part in the direction of Sin City

L-S

Craig Hickman said...

No, Adam. Everyone didn't think Eastwood was a lock. You did, but you are not everyone. Sure, Clint may still show up with an AMPAS nod, but are you willing to bet on that right now?

I said it before: it was too simplistic to reduce this race down to Clint vs. Marty, Part II.

People want to see Condon get a snub (I certainly do not), and he very well may, but don't be shocked if he doesn't.

NATHANIEL R said...

I still think Eastwood will make it as you can see on my predictions

the media has been pulling for him all year (why? i do not know. he's already been canonized so i'm not sure exactly what's motivating them) and endless media pushes have a way of working on the academy.