- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
- Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed
So, the DGA Nominations have confirmed what many have been expecting all along: Oscar’s Best Picture Oscar nominees will be Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. (that happens to be exact PGA Nominee lineup this year) Remember that DGA nominations are typically more predictive of Oscars Best Picture lineup than the Best Director lineup.
So what is there left to argue about? Well, the directors branch within AMPAS is miniscule compared to the voting membership of the DGA and their eventual Oscar shortlist is always similar to the Guilds but skews ever so slightly towards more auteurist or critical champs. So expect Frears (The Queen), Scorsese (The Departed), and Iñárritu (Babel) to hold their positions. Dayton & Faris (Little Miss Sunshine) or Condon (Dreamgirls) will lose their spot to one of the presumed runners up: Clint Eastwood- Letters From Iwo Jima or Paul Greengrass –United 93 or any one of the Hispanic longshots: Alfonso Cuarón - Children of Men, Pedro Almodovar –Volver or Guillermo Del Toro –Pan's Labyrinth. May the best directors triumph! (That’d be Almodovar and Cuarón in case you haven't been paying attention)
But who knows, maybe the DGA list is the Oscar list too? Here's what could be going down: Oscar members prone to vote for the lone director maverick spot. Those who have voted for people like David Lynch, Atom Egoyan and Mike Leigh in past races probably have too many critical darlings to choose from this year. Plus the studios are still hooked on that risky last two weeks of December game despite Oscar not following the old schedule that always rewarded that game. I'm so glad Oscar isn't waiting till March anymore --I like the film year to be the real calendar year and not some weird Miramax-fashioned January to the next March thing. But I'm not at all happy that the studios are still trying to pretend that Oscar is on the old schedule. Maybe they'll learn this year if Christmas's critical hits (Letters From Iwo Jima, Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men) all bomb w/ the golden guy?
P.S. I apologize for repeating myself. My mind goes round in circles this time of year.
Oscar BEST PICTURE Predix -update in progress
Oscar BEST DIRECTOR Predix -update in progress