Thursday, March 22, 2007

Collective Best Actress Prediction

If 2 heads are better than 1, than surely 112 heads are more than spectacular. One hundred and twelve crazy people readers voted in the (first annual?) year in advance Oscar Actress Psychic contest. Nine months later they'll find out who made the most beautiful prediction baby. Ballot details can be read here.

But the collectively created Oscar nomination prediction is...

[drumroll please]

  • Cate Blanchett (The Golden Age)
  • Julie Christie (Away From Her)
  • Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
  • Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)
  • Natalie Portman (The Other Boleyn Girl)
Cate Blanchett's second take on Queen Elizabeth was the only performance on more than 50% of the submitted ballots. Christie's alzheimer's patient and Kidman's wedding guest both found a home on a third of all ballots, way ahead of the pack. Jolie's war journalism widow & Portman as Queen's Elizabeth's mom just barely made the collective five wide shortlist, pulling ahead of four women, two of whom are already Oscar winners...

Continue reading for more notes of interest about the ballots

(I can't believe I'm talking Oscar already. It shouldn't surprise me. But it always does.)

40 comments:

Kamikaze Camel said...

Hmm. Interesting. Three of my predix made the top 5, another in the top 9 and all five in the top 20.

Should be interesting to see how it all goes.

You're gonna be wrecked by the end of it.

NATHANIEL R said...

we'll see. I'm counting on the magic of excel to make it easier than it looks.

Ben said...

This is basically the best thing ever. Thanks for making Oscar prediction season about a hundred times longer than it has any right to be! (That was sincere.) :-)

Bryan said...

That top 5 is very fanboyish. Jolie+Kidman+Portman+Blanchett? It cannot be true. A Mighty Heart's June release date disturbs me, I think it will be long forgotten by Oscar time. I guess people assumed Connelly was supporting? I think Reservation Road will hit big, and people who have read the book say she is as much of a lead as Pheonix.

Anonymous said...

thanks for doing this - I apologize in advance - but what about a best actor predict contest?? Throw some excitement for those of us who are "actorsexuals"

mistyh92104 said...

Oh!

To have Julie Christie nominated again (whether she wins or not) would be so, so good!

Anonymous said...

holy moly! I'm not there... I guess you didn't receive mi e-mail, I'm Martin and I sended it march 15... :( and noone have the same list as I did (Berry, Hathaway, Keener, Watts and Weaver (for GitP)

J.D. Judge said...

Okay. So the only clear to anyone in any category 11 months before is...

Cate Blanchett will be nominated. She's Cate, and she's been nommed before for the same role. I think she has the best shot right now. Who doesn't agree?

NATHANIEL R said...

martin, can you resend (maybe it went to junk mail?) if you have an e-mail reforward it back to me or something.

16 year old blogger said...

4 of the top 5 are in my predix...I chose Anne Hathaway instead of Angelina just becuase Anne has more "plusses" on her side (It will be her first nomination, the movie will be relesed in the fall/winter...) but I was about to pick Angie until I found out that the release date for a 'MIGHTY HEART' is in June or July and I knew it could happen but it would hurt her chances...oh, well...And thanks, Nat...

16 year old blogger said...

Nat, are you gonna post the 5 picks for each person so we can at least see how we are doing with the points???? It could be easy if you just put the attachment of the excel sheet online and we can each download it and open it...

16 year old blogger said...

Bryan...
Remember Connelly in 'A Beautiful Mind?' I think it's safer for the studio if they put her in supporting...I just started the book, now, so I will have to wait and see...

Ben, Birmingham, UK. said...

Hi Nat,

I can't believe I'm excited about next years Oscars already - got to calm down. {Deep breath} But seriously this is a great "game", if only my picks didn't seem so quirky and different.

I suppose one of the aspects I considered was that on average 2 of the nominees are first timers. None of the top five are, which seems unlikely.

Good luck to everyone who's taking part. May the best acressexual win.

adam k. said...

I'm VERY surprised Streep didn't place higher. She seemed the easiest choice to me. Streep + Redford + prestige film = DUH. Plus, she is boiling over with goodwill right now. Everyone LOVES her, and she's coming off the very-well-received Prada and Adaptation, for which she lost.

The only thing against her, I think, is that she has even MORE oscary projects ahead in 2008 - that will probably be her year - and I doubt people will want to nominate her yet again for a role that can't net her the statue. But then she does just keep racking up those noms, and has already lost 10 times in a row. So what's one more loss? I'm sure she doesn't care at this point.

I don't see how she misses unless it somehow ends up being a supporting role.

Blanchett obviously is the other "duh" choice, but it's entirely possible that she won't make it. It is a sequel after all. Acting noms for sequels are not likely. In order to get one, she may have to top her perf in the first film, and that'll be hard.

JS said...

Oh those lists! @_@

By the way Nath, what were the lowest and highest predictions for the tiebreaker guesswork?

(I really wanted to vote for Sarandon but Doris & Bernard is supposedly having distribution problems so I hesitated. I chose Paquin as this year's Kate Winslet. I think Keener could do a Misery-type of nomination at least.)

Thanks for the great contest.

Anonymous said...

ok nathaniel, I'm martin again, I already send it back again... I hope you receive it this time... If not well, I'll play from my house... It's just that I feel so confident about my predictios (or at least I wold love to see that happening).

Boyd said...

Not to be the one to spoil all the fun, but isn't there an Academy rule that states that actors cannot be nominated for playing the same role twice? Wouldn't that mean Blanchett is out?

Kamila said...

These are interesting predictions. Two actresses from my list are there. But, I still have high hopes on my other Oscar Best Actress Nominees hopefuls.

NATHANIEL R said...

boyd the rule is that you can't be nominated twice in one category (for actors. offscreen people can. there have been reprise performances nominated again like Al Pacino in the Godfather films.

16 everyones ballots ARE posted. just click on any of the "contestant board" links and you'll see all 100 plus.

that page will evolve as soon as the spreadsheets are done and the points begin.

John T. said...

Adam K-Streep was my sixth choice, but I figured that she'd go supporting for that one for some reason, so I went with Fonda instead (it could turn out to be that they both go supporting, who knows?)

Nathaniel-This is exciting! I can't wait to see how this plays out (particularly if there's a Best Actress nominee that not even 112 people can predict-proving that at a year in advance, it's like throwing darts blindfolded). I'm also excited that three of my predix are listed in the Top 5.

J.D. Judge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NATHANIEL R said...

JS the general consensus on Georgia Rules box office in terms of your guesses seemed to be in the $50s. but there's people guessing as low as $16 and as high as $125ish.

if it hits, say $54 though this tiebreaker question won't help much. hee

J.D. Judge said...

Actually, it's like throwing darts at Paris Hilton blindfolded and wearing a yellow tutu with green stockings from 113 miles away while punching a baby kangaroo and being punched by it's mama.

Wow, that's an amazing mental picture, lol.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Ja, In my entire early bird predictions I have Sarandon down as a Supporting Actress prediction for In the Valley of Elah.

John T, don't even consider the prospect of there being someone who's not on there. It is possible that a foreign one could come along (in the Catalina Sandino Moreno vein). Cannes will tell us if there's any foreign film that has an early chance of breaking out (as we saw with Volver and Pan's Labyrinth last year).

Kamikaze Camel said...

BTW, Reservation Road should really be:

LEAD:
Joaquin Phoenix, Jennifer Connolly

SUPPORTING:
Mark Ruffalo, Mira Sorvino, Everyone else

Sid said...

Hmmm... I match 2/5 with that. Bishil is my prediction for that "breakout" nom. Let's see how I score. This should be fun.

NATHANIEL R said...

kamikaze, what are you basing that on?
do you know the material. please elaborate. i need all the help i can get with the year in advance nightmare ;)

Anonymous said...

I think Kidman is going to be in the frame for a double nomination this year. Margot At The Wedding sounds promising for a Best Actress nom, but I actually think her best chance of a nomination will be in the Best Supporting Actress catergory. It's hard to envision Kidman not knocking an ice cold bitch like Mrs Coulter in The Golden Compass, out of the park.

Margot At The Wedding could be one of those little oddities that critics don't support or doesn't find an audience (ie The Life Aquatic, Birth, The Good German ect). I'm more confident of Kidman getting in for The Golden Compass.

Anonymous said...

thanx nathaniel, i see myself in the lsit now.

Arkaan said...

SPOILERS TO RESERVATION ROAD!!!! SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS

This was one of my favourite books of the late 90's (how favourite? I remember being ticked off when The Hours beat it for The Pulitzer Prize. That said, I haven't read it in years, so if you have a correction, please make it

The narrative follows two tracks. The first track is of the Learner family (Joaquin Phoenix and Jennifer Connelly are the husband/wife; Elle Fanning is their daughter and Sean Curley plays their son) as they learn to deal with the MEGA FUCKING SPOILER death of their son (Curley's character - named Josh Learner) from a hit and run. In terms of bait, it's Phoenix's story first, Connelly's next and Fanning's last (she's clearly supporting and yeah, the potential for bait is there: she gets a scene where she blames herself for the accident. It's heartbreaking to read). The main thrust comes from their struggle with grief (obviously), with a second really moving thread coming from the difficulty of trying to parent in such a situation.

The second track comes from Dwight Arno (Mark Ruffalo). He's in a shitty relationship with his ex-wife (played by Sorvino) and is struggling to have a better one with his son. He's a bit of a sadsack type character... anyway, he's the one who hits (and kills) Josh Learner.

If Ruffalo is pushed supporting, it'll be more like Blanchett's situation (where she was a leading character but if you could only choose one lead, you'd choose Dench) as opposed to McAvoy or Foxx in Collateral (where they were inarguably THE leading character and suggesting otherwise would drive one to embolism), but as I see it

Lead: Phoenix, Ruffalo
Borderline: Connelly (it really depends on how they adapt the story: she could easily fade a bit)
Supporting: Sorvino, Fanning.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Nat, I haven't read the book and it seems like Arkaan clearly knows more than I do. I was just guessing. I doubt they'd stick both Phoenix and Ruffalo into Lead, and if there are three women (Connelly, Sorvino and Fanning) gunning for Supporting, they'd probably bump one up to Lead (Connelly). Yeah, I was just using common sense, but obviously it's too early to tell.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if ELLE Fanning got an Oscar nod before Dakota. I think the world would spin off it's axis.

NATHANIEL R said...

they could get such great play out of that with that SNL Dakota Fanning Show

Lily said...

LOL @ Natalie being best actress...I'm 100% positive she's supporting...who called it first? ;)

Kenneth said...

I am pleasantly surprised I am the only one with a vote of confidence in Miss Alba. I have faith she will play a blind woman as we've never seen before. If the character is anything like the original "The Eye," it will be a challenging dual role for her. (After "The Departed," the Academy are gonna be suckers for HK-remakes!)

Plus, acting classes from Oscar nominee Felicity "tough cookie" Huffman were so intense, Alba cried.

Her newfound hobbies are "turning down roles" and telling studio bosses to kiss her a--. Clearly she is doing this because she is following the footsteps of Rachel McAdams and being very selective what roles she takes.

The sleeping giant has awaken and her name is Jessica Alba, Oscar nominee 2008.

I wished you guys had the option to change your predictions. Good luck! :)

Kamikaze Camel said...

That made me laugh. I'd be the first to bow down to you if it turns out to be true, but I honestly don't see that happening. Not at all.

Aren't the pretty actresses meant to win the Oscar and then make the silly superhero movie? :P

Marius said...

After "It's Hard out there for a Pimp" won the Academy Award for Best Original Song, I think anything is possible.

Kamikaze Camel said...

touche

Carl said...

I am a little surprised at the relief and/or self-congratuatory tone with which some in this thread are noting how many of their choices match the 'top five' consensus. The more years that pass, the more convinced I become of the wisdom of the oft-quoted first rule of Oscar prognostication - "Nobody Knows Anything". Note that Nathaniel's April Fool's predictions last year included (as memory serves) Beyonce Knowles and Nicole Kidman for roles that did not succeed, and Ashley Judd for a movie that was not even released in 2006. That latter problem could do in a lot of folks in this contest, as Nathaniel has already noted (and, having backed Judd this year in "Bug" as he did last year, I am all too aware.) In my humble opinion, the closer you are to the consensus, the less likely you are to be successful in this contest.

In my case, I have only one actress in the consensus on my list, and not for the consensus role (Natalie Portman in "Goya's Ghost"). I figure that her role in "The Other Boleyn Girl" is likely supporting (the other high-risk factor that could wipe out a lot of lists). And I have difficulty seeing the Academy giving Cate a second bite of the apple for a role they already nominated her for once, even if they did so for Al Pacino's Michael Corleone. It would have to be 'out of the park' better than everyone else, and this category has been pretty competitive lately.

You heard it here first...your contest winners will not have more than two consensus picks on their lists, and I would be even less surprised to see the winner have none.

Arkaan said...

carl, I tend to agree with the fact that "nobody knows anything" and the likelihood of a serious match with the consensus is minimal. I procrastinated predicting and ended up forgetting, so I'm not actually playing, but I'd argue that best actress is actually far more consistent than most other categories. First off, in terms of competition, I think last year was an anomaly. 2005 was a weaker year for oscar style performances, 2004 was fairly good, 2003 was weak again, etc.

I'm a bit surprised that there are those dismissing Blanchett's chances because it has happened only once (twice if you count O'Toole) before. There was a very consistent outcry when she lost in 98 and the feeling that she was robbed then hasn't really dissipated. But moreso, how many performers really return to oscar nominated roles in sequels? Oscar nominated films (in major categories) aren't exactly sequel whores.

Anyone wanna make a list?

I can think of Jack Nicholson (Chinatown, The Two Jakes), Al Pacino (The Godfather I and II), Peter O'Toole (Becket, The Lion in Winter), Anthony Hopkins (The Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal), James Cromwell (Babe and Pig in the City), Ian McKellan (LOTR films--hedging a bit, I know)

NATHANIEL R said...

Carl

i did not have Beyonce Knowles predicted a year in advance no. I had Jennifer Hudson predicted for supporting a year in advance.

my top five a year in advance for Best Actress last year were:

bening -running with scissros
blanchett -good german
judd -bug
paquin -margaret
winslet -little children

with only winslet making it.

And you're totally right about consensus being not necessarily promising in terms of Oscar this far out.

For example. I was the only major pundit that I know of last year that did not predict FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS in their first lineup and along with Dreamgirls it was considered the shoo-in. famously neither of the top two consensus choices made it.