Friday, June 13, 2008

Oscar June Predictions ~ Complete

Here ya go... That's everything. Best Picture, Director (with new text and pics), Technicals. Just everything.

You know you wanna diss / congratulate me for my psychic abilities. But first, answer me these questions three:
  1. Do you think the Clint Eastwood vs. Spike Lee brouhaha (regarding the lack of black soldiers in Eastwood's 2006 WWII movies) will continue into this Oscar season along with their films Changeling & Miracle at St. Anna's... or die out quickly?
  2. Do you think the Brothers Weinstein will finally get their Oscar groove back what with a promising slate that features Woody Allen (Vicky Christina Barcelona),Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes --maybe-- (The Reader) and a Stephen Frears / legendary actress vehicle (Chéri) hot on the heels of his Oscar success The Queen (2006)?
  3. Which seemingly baity property do you consider most suspect in reality?
Have at it and then we return to normal movie blogging. It's too early for Oscar!


Robert said...

Love the love for St. Anna. I'm a big Spike fan, and while he has been shunned by AMPAS (not to the extent of Burton or Fincher) he seems to be in the audience almost every year at the Oscars. They keep inviting him... that tells me something.

Interesting pick in Defiance. Glory was one of the first movies that made me fall in love with films and while Zwick has gone on to direct some real stinkers I've always rooted for him.

I love your description of the "con" for Milk. However Milk may be much easier of a gay picture for AMPAS to swallow (pun intentional) than Brokeback. It's a biopic and the man character is someone that even homophobes can love. Plus AMPAS may be feeling apologetic for the whole BBM snub. I'm considering Milk the frontrunner right now.

Ed Howard said...

Do people really still think of new Woody Allen films as promising Oscar bait? Don't get me wrong, I'm really excited for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but Cassandra's Dream wasn't exactly tearing up the box office not too long ago. I'm lucky I even got to see it in the week or so it actually played anywhere. Hopefully the return of Scarlett and the misplaced enthusiasm over the rumored lesbianism will at least get some people excited about a new Woody movie again.


well woody still has an incredible oscar record in one way: 1/3rd of his work gets screenplay nominations... so i think they're worth looking at least for that. and this one seems to have match point level buzz. a good sign since that was his biggest hit in a long long long time

Walter L. Hollmann said...

I just don't see Australia being a major player. Benjamin Button I see dominating more so in the tech categories, but maybe screenplay and hopefully actor. And I do feel Happy-Go-Lucky is going to be bigger than current thinking suggests. But, of course, my feeling was that Catherine Keener would be the big threat for Best Supporting Actress last year, so what do I know?

Anonymous said...

Cheri and Pfeiffer. Why not? Do you remember The age of innocence? That's why.

But I do hope to be wrong.


Anonymous said...

I just saw the trailer for Miracle At St Anna, and it looks pretty fantastic. And it also looks more AMPAS friendly than most of Spike's movies. As long as critics go for it, this could be Lee's return to the Oscar circle.

AMPAS loves Clint, and The Changling has already got the reviews from Cannes. So I expect Lee vs Eastwood to be a big and unavoidable story during the next oscar season. Should be fun watching all the drama unfold.


Janice said...

It probably helps "Milk" that the protagonist ends up being assassinated. Sort of like Tom Hanks and Philadelphia - would he have won if his character lived instead of dying tragically? A dead "fag" (I'm sorry, people may be too "enlightened" to say it, but they do think it) is safer than a live one. The way that white people love to make films with "noble" Indians in historic costume (safely dead and tucked in the past, and therefore no longer threatening) rather than deal with the realities of Native Americans in the present (or any minority, for that matter, ie, AMPAS falling all over themselves for Driving Miss Daisy and all but ignoring Do the Right Thing or Malcom X.) And so on, and so on...

Anonymous said...

It completely sounds like you've given up on "Australia"! Down to only 4 nominations. =(

Anonymous said...

You'll need to add something to the supporting actress predictions:

Bang-Bang already sounds like one of the greatest characters, like, ever, and Rinko Kikuchi has already gotten some Oscar attention.

Anonymous said...

janice - stop being so bitter. Embrace & enjoy life & movies! and stop with your racist statements about white people!!! - I'm offended. sounds like you've taken one sociology class too many. you've got the lingo down pact, gf.

thanks for the update on the oscars. love you / mean it. worth the wait.

Unknown said...

I think Benjamin Button and Milk won't make it into the big race

Anonymous said...

I agree with janice, quite frankly. I'm curious what specfically you disagree with, immy.

Anonymous said...

1) I think "Miracle at St. Anna's" will look derivative, not original, and only get supporting acting nominations. "The Changeling" will look considerably more original and profound in comparison. Spike Lee trying to position his movie as a better "Flags of Our Fathers" will backfire.

2). Not really, but the Weinsteins might be able to mount a smart enough campaign to get Michelle nominated (and maybe win).

3) Guesses at maybe not-so-baity:
- "Revolutionary Road". The actors aren't young lovers, with true love in an extraordinary spectacle ("Titanic"). They're bored and frustrated suburban spouses. Seen it before, don't care.
- "Doubt" will be like Meryl Streep's movie adapted from a play of a few years back, "Dancing at Lughnasa". Remember that one? Didn't think so.
- "Defiance" - might not jell.
- "Che" - distributors won't touch it (it's too long).
- "Miracle at St. Anna" - just not that good.
- "W" - we've all seen enough of him, and just want to forget.
- "The Soloist" - can't even bear to think of having to sit through this one.
- "Synecdoche, N.Y." - I want to love it, but none of the great cast get enough time, and it's just bits and pieces. Should have had more focus.

Anonymous said...

Um Miracle @St. Anna is based on a book with Science Fiction elements. So um how would that be derivative?

Anonymous said...

I do like Spike Lee, but I think his feud with the beloved Clint will only hurt him. He won't get a nomination because the Academy is afraid of what he may say. It's sad because I do think he cares. Outspoken people are usually loved by few.

I'm also a disbeliever on both, Revolutionary Road and Australia.


Anonymous said...

Lee just want some F***ing attention. Seriously, all his recent films were pretty much stupid so he uses Hollywood's oldest trick: "I shot JFK!"

Anonymous said...

About "W": Having read the script (which I kinda liked, with some qualifications) I'd say the film's best chances are in acting. More specifically, Brolin and Cromwell could get some attention. Forget Burstyn: she has less to do here than Ruby Dee in "American Gangster". She gets some good lines, but this is a father/son -show all the way.

Some of the big-name supporting roles are cameos, anyway: Rob Corddry and Jesse Bradford, for all the attention their casting has gotten, have maybe one minute of screentime between them.

Anonymous said...

How come ZERO Burn After Reading? Because last year was the year of the Coen? Maybe true, but a good film is still a good film, and this looks like it'll be a GREAT film! Eastwood did back to back, and sure the name Coen is not as big as the name Eastwood (yet), but I wouldn't completely disregard it. Plus Pitt, McDormand, and Malkovich look great in the trailer.


the reason for no BURN AFTER READING is that it's a comedy. And it's after their big Oscar success so that's like two strikes against it.

Oscar only embraces comedy when they have the air of drama about them (liek Juno)

they're not into silly or madcap

i personally can't wait to see it though.

Anonymous said...

Some brief thoughts (okay, lots of thoughts):

1. Doubt: I have not been following this movie at all, but its prestige obviously precedes it. If it’s successful it has a good shot.

2. Milk: If done right this will be the front-runner by far. Gus van Sant must be careful to add some of his recent “dark” resurgence (the voters seem to like dark now) but without too much to overpower it. The fact that it’s a tragedy and lingering shame over the Brokeback Mountain travesty could push it over the top. I’d put it at my #1.

3. Benjamin Button: I can only see this squeaking into a nomination if we have a “Pulp Fiction” scenario. One where critical praise is through the roof, with “masterpiece” being bandied about, and it hits big at the box office. If both of these happen (and indeed they might), we could see it being nominated. I cannot see it winning. Ever. Even if it is a masterpiece

4. Miracle at St. Anna’s: Lee’s problem with Eastwood only hurts its Oscar prospects, they do love Eastwood and they’ve never been so keen on Lee from the start. Although I agree it looks great, it has a long way to go,

5. Defiance: This movie looks terrible to me (never been a fan of Zwick) so my inner pessimist says it’s already a shoo-in for a nomination. I do think that this will make Oscar voters salivate, but it still has a chance of crashing and burning. Hard. If it can escape that, it has a good chance.

6. Australia: It depends on the movie. If this epic has the average cut length of the other Luhrmann films it stands no chance. Oscar voters could accept such style from a frantic musical, but the epic has no history for it. If it isn’t though, it has a really, really good chance. The voters may want a nice romantic epic to calm themselves after the gloom and doom of The Departed and No Country for Old Men.

7. The Changeling: Early reports are great from Cannes, which is a good sign for Clint. It has Oscar bait written all over it, but it actually looks really good as well. It’s on my list.

Okay, I could go on and on, but to make a long story short, these is my own personal predictions:

1. Milk
2. The Changeling
3. Doubt
4. The Road (McCarthy may prove to be Oscar gold)
5. Australia (the benefits outweigh the risks)

Sorry for rambling, now watch this comment sink like a stone.


everyone seems gung ho on MILK. which is good.

i don't really think the Eastwood feud is going to hurt Spike Lee's chances. There's being a loudmouth and being an unfamiliar loudmouth. Spike Lee would disappoint people if he suddenly wasn't opinionated. I think if the film is strong enough they'll want to make up past slights.

I mean they got slammed --even on the oscar broadcast itself --for ignoring Do the Right Thing. And MAlcolm X was so much better than some of the biopics they go for.

My real worry there is that TOUCHSTONE is not really an Oscar player.

Anonymous said...

I think "Australia" is being tilted as a 2 1/2 hour movie.

Anonymous said...

Vera farmiga as Valarie Plame in NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH. Seems like an obvious best supporting actress.



Glenn said...

I predicted Miracle at St Anna back in March. My reasons, purely, were that they've never really honoured Lee and now he's making a WWII movie so there's gonna be a big call for "it's now or never" if the movie is good.

The Pretentious Know it All said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Pretentious Know it All said...

But if they reward "Milk," it might undermine the minority in the Academy that is heterosexual maleness...haven't they already been through enough?

Anonymous said...

Why don't you have Australia down for costume design? Surely if it's gonna get anything it will be that.

Anonymous said...

After watching the two Australia trailers and the podcasts I am more than excited about the movie.

This movie could really be one of the big winners of this year.

Nicole Kidman could finally receive a 2nd Oscar for this role. She is so brilliant.
I hope that Baz gets an Oscar as best director and Catherine Martin for Best Costumes.
They are so brilliant.

And you already saw this team Kidman/ Luhrmann/ Martin in Moulin Rouge and it was awesome.
Kidman is one of the most gifted actresses but Luhrmann brings out the best of her even more.

Anonymous said...

How funny would it be if, after their fairly public brawl, Spike Lee and Clint Eastwood were both nominated for Director. Hilarious.