Time Travelin' Oscar Prediction Giggle

Readers who don't get into statistics or prediction percentages might want to walk politely on by until this post is over.

I'm sure other oscar obsessives have been discussing their statistics since Tuesday morning's revelations. For the record I got 80% in the top eight categories, 69% if you include the techs. And if you include everything (i.e. the categories only the true crazies like myself predict, such as animated short) it drops to 67%. But that's not what I'm hear to discuss.

Remember how each year I do my "Year in Advance 'April Fools' Predictions" which is quickly followed by all that "that could never happen!" mail/comments from you. Turns out you're right. But don't get too snippy about it because you don't know any better! Here were my top ten Oscar choices for BP way back last April 1st to the left. Yours to the right --taken from group polling held that first week of April last year.


You foresaw another Eastwood (wrong film) and Scorsese smackdown coming a mile away. And you probably got Dreamgirls' placement just right. How about that? I correctly foresaw that Flags would falter (I was, I believe, the only year-round Oscar loudmouth to never predict it) and I sensed that The Prestige and Children of Men would figure in somehow but fall short of the BP shortlist. Since they're both "genre" pictures, I got flack for it at the time. Still, of the fourteen pictures either you or I had some faith in, only one of them ended up in the Best Picture field.

Despite a lower in the top categories in this annual fools game of predicting while some of the movie are still in production, the tech predictions saved me and I still got a 27% success ratio of prediction to nominations a whole year in advance. Not so shabby. I realize that sounds low but it ain't. Just try it on April 1st and tuck that list in a drawer until next January: so many films get delayed, so many arrive out of nowhere, big dogs fall and little dogs rise. Etcetera. I realize that posting such embarassments as the picture above is a quick way to damage my own credibility as a prognosticator but I can assure you that other people aren't any better at it (the year in advance part). And those saying "I knew a year ago!" don't have websites to prove they did. All of this is a long way of saying: I still think it's fun, this prediction game but if you don't have a sense of humor about your own blindspots, foibles and random successes, you shouldn't come anywhere near the keyboard until early November when a lot of the films have been widely seen and the field is starting to clear and its much harder to look like a fool

So what crazy mistakes and haphazard successes will I make predicting the February 2008 Oscars? What will be the next Little Children that looks strong but never really takes off? What will be the next Children of Men that overcomes its genre to be (partially) embraced? We won't know until January 2008 but my guesswork will be up on April 1st as per usual.

Until then, we return to the here and now.

Little Miss Quoted

Don't know if you've seen Movie City News roundup of Oscar Nominee quotes but it's fun. Eddie Murphy's statement is non-committal enthusiasm. Mark Wahlberg's Boston Police joke is funny. But you have to love Abigail Breslin's quote with its meandering little kid charm:

We made chocolate milk and I went on my computer. I'm so excited. I just got a new computer, a MacBook, so I was playing games. And then I had a buttered roll.

It's almost "Penny"-like (Pee-Wee's Playhouse) in that sudden "buttered roll" detail, isn't it? Too funny.

Pfeiffer Watch: It Could Never Be Our Movie

Y'all seriously now. I Could Never Be Your Woman, the long completed romantic comedy that stars Michelle Pfeiffer (absent from the screen for 5 soul-deadening years now after an egregious Oscar snub for one of her best performances ever) is still having release and distribution woes: That's due to lots of business problems for Bauer Martinez and MGM as reported in Variety. It's cursed!


I harbored no hopes that ICNBYW was going to be a blockbuster or an Oscar winner or even a critical triumph but my god: Michelle Pfreaking Pfeiffer. Get on it. Put that damn thing in theaters. I mean, geez louise, She Who Must Not Be Named gets distribution for a twee period flick that hasn't even crossed the million dollar mark after a Golden Globe nod but one of the best female stars of all time can't catch a break for a mainstream romantic comedy? God, I hate Hollywood sometimes.

Just as I was typing this (no, really) news came in that Free Style Releasing is the new distributor. The biggest success they've been involved with to date is The Illusionist which did, by most fields of reasonable measurement, shockingly well. But mostly their films have played for two seconds without much promotion like, say, Green Street Hooligans. They're eyeing, Coming Soon tells us, a February 16th release. That's incredibly soon given that there's been no promotion whatsoever. The other big February female star driven romantic comedies (Diane Keaton's la-dee-da in Because I Said So and cutesy poo Drew Barrymore in Music & Lyrics) are already so familiar with ubiquitous promotion that I feel like we're sharing a cycle. It's like their my new best friends.

Pfeiffer is a ginormous star. But she's also been gone for five years. Seems a shame that her return to theaters is likely to be greeted by a whisper instead of a loud parade.

Future Blog-a-Thons

Here are three upcoming blog-a-thons you should watch for if you like the group action. I do so I'll be there for each.

Feb 14th "Lovesick" hosted by 100 Films. A great wide topic --imagine the tonal variety of the posts

Mar 23rd-25th 1927 hosted by Goatdog. I highly recommend you read this one: it's a fascinating year that changed Hollywood forever

Apr 23rd William Shakespeare hosted by Peter Nellhaus. No restrictions as long as its Shakespeare related and, since there are well over 500 films of all variety (in both genre and quality) related to his work and thousands of actors who've been connected to them, this should be fascinating

Those three I'll be writing pieces for -- but there's more. It's impossible to participate in all but I'll definitely be reading. I'd also like to host another since I had such fun with Vampires and La Pfeiffer and the crowds for both were enthusiastic and diverse. But I haven't settled on a topic yet. More later...

More Oscar Cold Sweats and Hot Flashes

Helen Mirren is the only leading actor representing a Best Picture. Very very rare.

One day Edward Zwick (who holds the strange distinction of being one of my most hated and most loved directors --hate all of his movies / love all of his television) will have an Oscar sweeper. It seems obvious. His annoying, simplistic romantic adventure/racial drama movies always seem to be in the mix, even if they have no business being in a "best" discussion. Still they always seem to get play. Glory got 5 nominations and 3 wins. Legends of the Fall 3 nominations and 1 win. The Last Samurai received 4 nominations and 0 wins. And this year Blood Diamond got 5 nominations... most of which truly test my patience. I fear the day when he finally makes it into the lineup himself and I only pray that on that fateful day they accidentally run out of Oscars and have to hand him an Emmy instead. They're both gold, right? I'll mold it myself if they need help. Give him an Emmy. Those he deserves. (See also: thirtysomething, Once & Again, Relativity and My So Called Life.)

Pénelope Cruz is, I think (research!?? get me research!), the first Spanish actress nominated -- the other lead female Hispanic nominees have both been in the past 5 years: Colombia's Catalina Sandino Moreno for Maria Full of Grace and Mexico's Salma Hayek for Frida .

Lots of Other People Talking Oscar!
Kris Tapley thinks Iwo Jima will win (er...)
Eric Beck walks us through a history of snubees at Oscar Watch: should've seen Dreamgirls snub coming?
Daniel Kennealy of Oscar Watch thinks all bets are off (well, except for Mirren)
Dave Carr of the NY Times discusses Oscars racial diversity this year
Jeffrey Wells on the Greengrass nomination
ModFab is pissed about the Dreamgirls snub and wonders why Eastwood didn't nab a Best Actress spot, too.
Nick Davis offers very brief notes on many scandals
JA says "bah!" but stops short of "humbug" due to Pan's and CoM nods.
Joe Reid sure likes the stats. sports. american idol. oscar predictions, too.
Ali breaks down the reaction categorically. No no, not by category...
Tom O'Neil on the snubbed... the oh so very snubbed
The Felixes or 'the anti-Oscars' are jokin' around again
film freak goes with "professional" commentary

AND NOW. A BREAK FROM OSCAR.
Aren't you glad that nomination day is over?

Tuesday Top Ten: Oscar Talking Points

Tuesday Top Ten! ~a new weekly feature. For the listmaker in me and the list lover in you

Ten Talking Points Re: Oscar Nominations
10. Click can now call itself an "Oscar Nominee" (curse the makeup branch!) That sound you hear is figure eights and triple lutzes from Hell's new ice rink.

09. Oscar continues to strengthen its ever growing love affair with placing lead performers into supporting slots. Thelma Ritter, Jason Robards, Fay Bainter, Walter Brennan and all sorts of acclaimed character actors (RIP) may feel free to turn over in their graves. At the rate this trend continues to grow with almost no one batting an eyelash at category fraud but merely accepting it or even defending it, their modern counterparts will soon never have a shot at even one Oscar nomination, let alone frequent honors.

08. The Cinematographers and the Art Directors are thinking for themselves. What's up with that? They've freed themselves from the shackles of the Best Picture field. It's rather shocking when you stop to consider how long it's been since they ignored the big dogs. That hasn't happened in either category in the past 40 years (anyone know how far back you have to go to find another instance?

07. The Oscars will have performances from at least two beloved lesbians: Ellen DeGeneres is hosting and Melissa Etheridge will presumably show up to sing the Best Original Song "I Need to Wake Up" nominee. No word on whether or not Jodie Foster will be a presenter.

06. The costumer designers finally woke up and smelled the value of contemporary films in their midst. It's not like The Queen has 'period' costumes and The Devil Wears Prada --can I explode with glee? Patricia Field (previously of Sex & The City fame) is a genius. And let's hear it for Marie Antoinette's Milena Canonero who joins the top ten costume designers of all time (in terms of nominations) with her eighth nod from the Academy. She's now tied with Jenny Beavan (a snubee this year for her work on The Black Dahlia)

05. Kate Winslet is now a five-time Oscar nominee. At only 31 years of age she has now entered the top twenty-six most nominated female actors of all time. Only three others in that list (Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr with six nominations & Glenn Close with five) are Oscarless.

04. No Casino Royale anywhere. Not even in the unhyped tech categories. And that complete snub came after an astounding showing @ BAFTA and gigantic box office and pop cultural success. The Academy liked it less than a few other Bond films ... imagine that.

03. A great year for Hispanic filmmakers. Unless your names start with Pedro and ends with Almodóvar (He was shut out of Best Director -damn, Best Screenplay -shame, and Best Foreign Film for Volver -heresy!) But the Three Amigos (Gonzalez Innaritu, Del Toro, and Cuaron) were all nominated in one way or another. Good on them and a nice semi rare rather widespread acknowledgement from the Academy that you don't have to be American to be a mover and shaker in the cinema.

02. Is Letters From Iwo Jima the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee ever (at the time of nominations)? It's certainly one of them. To date it's earned only $2.5 million. That's well under the totals for other late blooming BP finalists like Capote, Life is Beautiful, In the Bedroom, and Cider House Rules which were all nearing $20 million when they were boosted by AMPAS. In recent years only Million Dollar Baby, The Pianist, and Secrets and Lies were under $10 million and all were bigger moneymakers than Iwo Jima prior to their lucky day. Calling all box office gurus: Is Letters From Iwo Jima actually the lowest grosser ever (pre-nominations)? Help us out.

01. Dreamgirls gets the most nominations (8) but is shut out of Best Picturewhich has, according to preliminary research, never happened before. The picture that still holds the record for the most nominations ever without a corresponding Picture nod, is They Shoot Horses, Don't They?. It received 9 but no best picture but it was not the nomination leader in its year.


FULL NOMINATION LIST HERE

Previous Tuesday Top Tens (New Series):
Alexander(s) The Great
Best 2006 Movies from The Departed (sure) to Marie Antoinette (you heard me)
Movies by The Three Amigos Best of Cuarón, González Iñárritu and Del Toro


Tags: costume design, movies, Oscars, Academy Awards, cinema, Film, cinematography, costumes, Kate Winslet, Clint Eastwood, Casino Royale, Melissa Etheridge, hispanic, Volver,Dreamgirls, Pedro Almodovar

Let There Be Oscar Nominations

I've been grumpy this awards season, I'm the first to admit. So now I will attempt to only say nice things about the Oscar nominations --there'll be plenty of time for bitching later on... wish me luck

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

• Think, happy thoughts. think happy thoughts... Given that all of these movies opened by October -- except Letters From Iwo Jima which you can count as opening before that (if you get flexible with your thinking) considering it's part one, Flags of Our Fathers, provided a lead-in. Maybe we'll all get to see the prestige pics opening during the fall next year instead of the last week of December *cough --distributors of Children of Men & Pan's Labyrinth --what on earth were you thinking when you had such major films?
  

Best Actress
Pénelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

• Think, happy thoughts. think happy thoughts... A very classy line-up. It's so nice to see a list that isn't exclusively young hotties and -- this is the best part I'm almost tearing up -- doesn't rely so heavily on that de-glam gimmick. Yay!
  

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

• Think, happy thoughts. think happy thoughts... I am so relieved that Ryan Gosling was not denied. I was getting worried there with huge pop culture momentum for both Daniel Craig (whom I love and who gives thrice the action performance that DiCaprio gives in Blood Diamond --happy thoughts. Um... ) and Sacha Baron Cohen (who was good but didn't deserve to unseat Gosling's stellar painful work. I cannot fuc DiCaprio is nominated! Yay! I'm just going to pretend it's not for that.
  

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

• Think, happy thoughts. think happy thoughts... The best thing I can say here is that I've been predicting this exact lineup for a long while... even before Breslin started getting attention. So I feel smart. Happy Thoughts screw counting sheep... I can just think of this category and my insomnia: CURED! Thanks AMPAS
  

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

• Think, happy thoughts. think happy thoughts... It's kinda fun that they went opposite of the Globes "give me only huge stars!" and I'm quite pleased that it's 80% actual supporting performances too! One day if we're lucky we'll see a supporting list that's 100% supporting again. Also: very pleased that they were discerning enough to choose Wahlberg over Nicholson. Smart move.
  

There'll be expanded thoughts later today and obviously more obsessing later on as the night at the Kodak looms large. But this morning is a time for mourning the snubs, realizing you were way offbase or right on the money in your predictions, and immediate impressions. Leave them in the comments. For the full nomination list and links to more information click here --you know you want to.

Links

They're not naked. They're not golden. They're not holding a sword. They're -- gasp -- just links! [No Oscars Allowed Edition]

Bright Lights on the moebius strip of Casino Royale. Fun article.
Film Ick has a script review of Mysteries of Pittsburgh. The new film is based on one of my favorite books and the more I read about it, the more I'm staying away.
fecundmellow has a beautiful, searching post on the ongoing Grey's Anatomy name-calling controversy.
goatdog schedules a "1927 blog-a-thon" ~ tis an important cinematic year
ModFab on Robbie Williams' "She's Madonna"
SMH more on Baz Luhrmann's Australia

The Very Last Oscar Post Prior to The Actual Nominations on Tuesday. Aren't You Dying of Excitement?

And isn't the title of this post as obnoxious as you can possibly imagine? I try. I was going for just this side of 'shut up already! get on with it' as a way of paralleling my own feelings about the Oscars. Every year with this endless foreplay...

So, the race for those Oscar noms has been boring since December. That's right about when everyone and their dog agreed that Helen Mirren was the greatest actress to have ever lived (or at least as good as you know, 1/2 of Hilary Swank). That's when everyone drank the Kool-aid that there were only five movies released last year. For the record their names were: The Departed, The Queen, Babel, Dreamgirls, and Little Miss Sunshine.

The Final Predictions As with any year there is usually a teensy amount of drama in regards to who gets the fifth spot in any given shortlist. So here are my best guesses or in one case, my best throwing caution to the wind... who cares about statistics. UPDATE: There's even documentary feature and animated short predictions for completists!



Discuss in the comments. Agree? Disagree? What do you expect we'll see? Read those final predix ~ then hash it out in the comments. You got less than 24 hours to do so. While you're doing that I'll be preparing for Tuesday's nominations. Gotta build all the web pages and, as is my annual tradition, hold that séance to try to summon Jessica Tandy back from beyond the grave. See, she has this stolen Oscar and it still needs to get to its rightful owner. If I have to call on the dark forces to get it there, don't think I won't.

Best Actress... What a World

With the posting of the Best Actress and Best Cinematography nominees the first half of the FiLM BiTCH Awards (or: my imaginary Oscar ballot) are complete. Those two categories were the hardest to decide on and while my choice for a Best Actress shortlist probably reads like a statement (in its minus two consensus) ... it's really not. This is just an honest carefully considered (one might say "obsessed over") opinion in a year that had way too many riches --of the 2005 contestants only the winner would make the lineup this year and she'd be in last place. That's how strong this year is comparatively. At any rate the Oscar choices for Best Actress will be thrilling. It'll be the most celebration worthy lineup since 1987. Best in 20 years = not too shabby.

Re: Winslet. I know she has legions of fans. I'm one of them, a die hard. But before you descend with pitchforks and torches, remember this: if I ran the world she'd have already won two Oscars. So put down those torches. Wouldn't you rather live in that world?

Regarding my off-consensus choices. I couldn't part with either no matter how many times I rethought. One terrified me and the other bewitched me in ways I still can't completely figure but felt like I should acknowledge for her staying power in my heart.

P.S. I'll fill in the last few "scene" and "character" prizes for the 7th annual Film Bitch Awards in the next week with medalists in all categories to be announced on February 5th, 2007.

Final Oscar Predictions very soon.

Siskel & Ebert Nick & Nathaniel

As many of you know, Nick Davis (of Nicks Flick Picks) and I are friends in real life. Here's a weird thing you might not have noticed if you don't read us both regularly: we don't agree all that often. We both go nutso for 70s Altman, yes. We're both shameless actressexuals, it's true. We have sympatico moviegoing urges (We'll actually walk to movie theaters if we have to. Even if it's miles away. Even if it's uphill in both directions. During a blizzard). But beyond that: not so much in the way of total agreement.

So, if we had our own show we'd be arguing all the time, like Roger Ebert did back when he had a formidable co-chair. For instance, our top ten lists will be diverging considerably this year --his is due within the next week. But he went and gave almost all of my favorites B or B minuses this year which means he's treating my babies like I treated Oscar's favored pups this year (i.e. 'yeah, they're OK -- what else ya got beeyotch?') So when we do agree I feel even more prone to linking. Check out this happy "Block Party 2006" --it's the titles that made moviegoing fun last year. I second all of the recommendations I've seen and I'm adding the ones I haven't to my Netflix queue. Nick's also got his Oscar predictions posted -- can't say I agree there but it's a good funny read.

My final Oscar predictions will be up by approximately 2:30 PM EST

Supporting Actress 2006: My Ballot

Did you know Mr. Bleichert that Ramona Boulevard is named after me? When Emmett married me for my father's money he promised my family that he would use his influence with the city zoning board to have a street named after me. All he could manage was a dead end block in a red light district in Lincoln Heeeiiights

If I had an Oscar ballot, these five women would feature: a drunk mad heiress, a careless nanny, a murder victim, a snobbish fashion plate and a dithering folk singer. See the list and the runners up

This and Oscary That

Updates to the FB Awards including Best Supporting Actor and more of the behind the scenes contributions like Adapted Screenplay and the ever important Art Direction and Film Editing and Sound Editing. My Final Oscar Nomination Predictions will be up either late tonight or tomorrow morning (I need a breather before the madness of the nominations themselves) In other Oscar focused news: Eddie has begun posting the fun survey results of "Best & Worst 'Best Actress' Wins" --reading through the Worst lists and the understandably bitchy quipping makes you want to throttle AMPAS all over again. Never a Stanwyck or a Garland and still no Winslet, Moore or Pfeiffer ... and for whom? Arrrrrgh.


Oh and Little Miss Sunshine won its first "Best Picture" prize --from the Producers Guild of America. Not too shabby (The Producers Guild wisely chose Brokeback last year and Moulin Rouge! in 2001 so they have built up some goodwill with me) So now all of next Tuesday's nominees have at least one prize under their belt going into the big race - will we have an actual five-way race this year? Unheard of but exciting.

"Fifty Bucks Says You Don't Look This Good In Your Fifties"

...that's what I imagine Geena Davis saying in this photo which was taken about a year ago.

I'll admit to intermittent amnesia when it comes to the fabulous Ms. Davis but for awhile in the 90s it was tough to beat her. She was really on top of the game. An Oscar in March of 1989, a starring role in a hotbutton classic in 1991 (Thelma & Louise), carrying a big hit in 1992 (A League of Their Own) in which she replaced an 'it girl' from the 1980s: Debra Winger. Hollywood is quite the merry go round, in'nt it? People jump on, they get dizzy and fall off, they marry Finns who destroy their careers...

Geena Davis may not be the star she once was, but I'm always hoping she'll surprise us with one more great movie role. Even if she never acted again though she'd hold a special place in my heart just for "Thelma". One of my favorite line readings of all time belongs to her in that film. She and Louise (Susan Sarandon) are trying to determine what to do next and they both realize that returning to their past lives is no longer an option.

Something's, like, crossed over in me and I can't go back. I mean I couldn't live.

She's so earnest in her delivery and so surprisingly unsurprised. And she's sunburnt (good look on both those ladies, btw). God, I love that scene.

Happy birthday Geena!

Good Vs. Evil: 'White Bread' Teachers

If you're wondering why I haven't yet seen Freedom Writers, you just haven't been paying attention, have you? A: Hilary Swank and B: Hilary Swank. And, truth be told, I didn't even like this movie 12 years ago when it was called Dangerous Minds even though it starred my living goddess. Plus I don't ever want to go back to high school again. The only way I'm going is if Michelle Pfeiffer comes with and throws candy bars my way every time I get the answer right.

Anyway I already know that Michelle Pfeiffer was greater in the role of "Ms. Erin LouAnne Gruwell Johnson" than Beelzebub Hilary Swank could ever hope to be even without seeing the remake. For one, she's La Pfeiffer and if you're going to play a saint it's easier to pull that kind of role off if you're already godlike. And for two, Pfeiffer is sooooo much cooler than Swank. Swank may boogie down with her students in Freedom Writers but Pfeiffer shook her stuff with both her students and Coolio in Dangerous Minds. I rest my case.


Good wins this round. But the eternal battle rages on...

Previously in the 'who can blame me?' loathing of Ms. Swank:
Smell Like Skank * P.S. I Hate Her * Prophetic Nightmare *

Previously in my entirely understandable worship of La Pfeiffer:
Velma Von Tussel * Pfeiffer: Catch That Wave * Pfeiffer Blog-a-Thon -37 Participating Blogs

Previously in Good Vs. Evil
666 Edition * Star Wars * Heath Ledger Auteurs * Squinty-Eyed Oscar Winners * Musical Theater Birthday Boys *

Step Up. Make My Speech.

'member I made that dope Step Up. Well, I'm stepping up to the podium real soon. Ha - sorry bad pun. I'm just playin'.

Anyway, I'm getting prizes. Ya heard? I got that Indie Spirit thing... Well, not yet but it's coming my way. And now one of these here FiLM BiTCH things --never heard of but whatever: "Best Breakthrough" I'll take it. Speakin of bitches, it's all ladies keeping me company in the category, so even if I lose I win. There's that hot fashion chick, that dreamgirl who's always telling you --we heard you already, damn! -- and somebody else I forgot. I can't figure out how the voting works but I'm obviously gonna win. Missy Sunshine ain't never seen my superfreak moves.

Later.

Oh, Nathan also posted somethin' bout Maggie G's (MILF) "body" which i'm totally behind.

P.S 2 here's my my virgin (heh) trip to the film experience if ya missed it.

tags: Maggie Gyllenhaal, movies, celebrities, Channing Tatum, Dreamgirls, independent spirit

Saturday Link Fever

Zoom-In Online has a lot of new Sundance coverage. This film The Savages (starring 'the lovely laura linney') sounds good
Jesus Hearts Music Beyoncé's daddy thinks she lost the Golden Globe because of racism. Try not to crack up laughing. He must'a missed that last 30 years on Planet Earth in which La Streep was (repeatedly) anointed the greatest actress ever. [src]
100 Films 100-- no make that 5, a top 5 for 2006
The Hot Blog intrigues me w/ a description of Samantha Morton's new film.
LA Observed more ink for Mirren (and a great photo) and apparently the Wells vs. Poland business also gets print coverage
Cinematical what's next for Scorsese?
Pajiba's First Annual Shit List: Featuring Scarlett Johansson, Julianne Moore, and my favorite "People Who Waited Until 2006 to Start Hating Mel Gibson" -hee.
Cinemarati have begun their 2006 'best of the year' countdown which will be going on daily for the next week. Check in and join the discussions.

Get Me Wardrobe

Some new editions to the FiLM BiTCH Awards in a few technical categories

Best Costume Design
Don't try wearing any of the year's best costumes at home. Unless you're a Chinese empress, a frivolous dauphine of France, a member of a girl group or just a top drawer drag queen, you'll never be able to pull it off. And I'm betting you're not. One of those things I mean. If you are please e-mail me ...now.

My nominees are also up for Animated Film (zzz) and less glitzy categories like Original Score, Original Song, Adapted Screenplay, Sound and Sound Effects are on their way as the day progresses (I gotta finish by Monday) so just refresh on occassion if you're desperate to see the kudos.

Return and discuss in the comments and imagine yourself wearing a movie costume while doing so. And please share that mental image. You know, for fun.

Notorious (Times Two)

Thank You For Linking

Miami Herald on the "X"s in The Departed. Cool. [src]
Tom O'Neill on the SOAP honors: groupthink and category fraud.
Center of Gravitas a love/hate relationship with Ugly Betty.
The Gilded Moose A message from Warren Beatty
Glitterati Lindsay in rehab. I've tried not to care but I still do. Get well LiLo
NYT Oh happy day. The execrable Beauty & The Beast is closing on Broadway. To make room for The Little Mermaid but still... That couldn't be any worse, could it?

And just because I've been madly in love with him for years, here's Rupert Everett on "The View" and also reading a portion of his new Hollywood dirty laundry autobiography Red Carpets and other Banana Skins which I assume is his way of saying 'I don't care if I ever work again'

Great Moments: Shampoo (1975)

I've got Warren Beatty on the brain since that tribute on Monday night at the Golden Globes. So, here's a moment I love from Hal Ashby's Shampoo (1975) written by The Bening's husband and Robert Towne. This scene always gets to me because Carrie Fisher seems like she's a hundred years-old. She was actually somewheres around 18 and this was her debut. There's a split second late in the scene when the teenager peeks through as she glances quickly back and forth, too aware that she's playing a naughty adult game. Great cameo-ish performance.

Warren Beatty plays George, a womanizing hairdresser. He's been invited into Lorna's kitchen for a snack.


Lorna: Want some lox?

George: No, thanks.

Lorna: You're my mother's hairdresser.

George: I do hair, yeah.

Lorna: Chopped liver?

George: No, thanks.

Lorna: Are you gay? Want a baked apple? They're cold, but good.

George: No, thanks.

Lorna: Did you hear me?

George: Yeah.

Lorna: Well, are you? Are you queer?

George: Sure.

Lorna: Come on. Are you or aren't you?

George: [chewing on celery] This is great, huh.

Lorna: Come on, tell me. Don't be afraid.

George: Why do you want to know so bad?

Lorna: See if you're making it with my mother.

George: Why would my being a faggot have anything to do with that?

Lorna: Nothing, I guess. Have you ever made it with a guy?

George: You ever make it with a girl?

Lorna: Are you?

George: Am I what -- what are you talking about?

Lorna: Making it with my mother?

George: I'd love to do your hair sometime.

Lorna: Do you have a thing about older women? Because that's sort of faggoty, isn't it?

I never get my hair done. In fact, I don't think I've ever been to a beauty salon in my whole life. You think that's funny, don't you?

George: Yeah.

Lorna: Beverly Hills hairdresser. You might as well be a faggot. You think that's funny, too?


George: No.

Lorna: Then what do you think?

George: You know, I think you got exactly the same eyes as your mother. And your chin's a little bit like hers, too.

Lorna: No, it isn't. No.

Goerge: I think it is.

Lorna: No, no... and my eyes aren't like hers either.

George: They are. Because they...

Lorna: No, they're not.

George: They really are.

Lorna: [suddenly angry] No, they're not, they're not. I'm nothing like my mother!

George: I'm not trying to insult you, you know. Can't we just be friends?

Lorna: Okay.

You want to fuck?

*

And... Scene

Best Actor 2006: My Ballot

There were six performances by lead actors this year that I would be thrilled to see on Oscar's shortlist. Obviously two of the six aren't coming anywhere near it: One for completely understandable reasons (Oscar just don't do weird sci-fi films) and one for reasons I have yet to fathom. Both play doctors in their films. I guess this isn't the Emmys because neither of them got any awards traction.

But this is my nominee list, not Oscars, not yours. Make your own in the comments.

The Very Last Awards Post. Ever.

kidding, obviously. Here's three pieces of awardage that I'm actually involved with.

FILM BITCH AWARDS Now in their 7th year. My own baby comes at you piecemeal. I know it seems like slowgoing but I do have a life ("of sorts," he said with a sigh) --more very soon.

CINEMARATI The Web Alliance For Film Commentary will begin their always fascinating Top 20 countdown this weekend. Each movie comes with a pro and a dissent --a ready made conversation/argument starter. I promise it's worth a look.

SOAP This is a newly formed organization (that's short for "Society for Online Awards Prognostication") spearheaded by Scott Feinberg of And The Winner Is... SOAP includes myself and 10 other Oscar analysts, some of whom you undoubtedly already read if you're an awards junkie. These nominees are based on personal ballots of the members i.e. our collective choices rather than predictions. The winners will be announced on February 21st. Here are the five nominees for the major categories (there are six if there were any ties):

Best Picture: Children of Men, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan's Labyrinth, The Queen, United 93

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men), Guillermo Del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth), Stephen Frears (The Queen), Paul Greengrass (United 93), Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Best Actress: Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Michael Sheen (The Queen)

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel), Meryl Streep (A Prairie Home Companion)

Regarding the technical and special prizes, I'm horrified to see that my colleagues are enamored of Apocalypto (which received a too many tech nods) but otherwise there's some cool honors and I like that Children of Men did well. Check the full list out if you're interested.

Kazakhstan's Globe Celebration Cut Short

Though Borat took home prize at Monday's Golden Globe celebration, Kazakhstan is no longer a winner. Their entry into Oscar's foreign film competition "Nomads" failed to make the shortlist before the shortlist. Confused? Well, it goes like this. Oscar used to have large committees that watched the 50+ entries and then voted giving you your five Oscar nominees for Foreign Language Film. In the new system that committee merely narrows the field down with their ballots. And then another committee of but 20 people chooses from their finalists.

If I were a cynic I'd say: So representatives from France and the other countries presumably now know who to schmooze. It's easier to sway the opinion of 20 people who've watched 9 movies than hundreds who've watched 50. So let the best schmoozer win.

On the other hand: This gives the critical community more power. That's not always good (they're hardly infallible) but that would presumably prevent AMPAS embarrassments like the snubs for City of God, In the Mood For Love or Run Lola Run. A smaller committee looking at finalists will know: Hey, this movie is supposed to be a masterpiece.


Of the 61 original entries, one removed itself from contention early on (that'd be Finland) and 51 others were dismissed this week. So who did make the finals?

Hit foreign films Water (Canada), Volver (Spain), and Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico) made it to no one's shock and amazement. The raved Germany entry The Lives of Others also placed. The other finalists are Days of Glory (Algeria), After The Wedding (Denmark), Avenue Montaigne (France), Black Book(The Netherlands) and Vitus (Switzerland).


Good News:

• Volver still looks all set for a nom, despite not igniting in quite the way I hoped.
  
• Academy rules prevent Americans like Clint Eastwood and Mel Gibson from encouraging voter laziness and letting them just choose American films that happen to have subtitles entering the foreign category so this is the first foreign kudo list you'll see this year that doesn't include two American films: Apocalypto and Letters From Iwo Jima.
• 33% of these films are from female directors. That's a nice turn of events and a reminder to Hollywood that other countries don't have such a strange "no women allowed" policy on filmmaking.

Bad News:

• One of those female directors made Avenue Montaigne, the French entry which is just not very good at all.
  
• Certainly not as good as Curse of the Golden Flower which was the highest profile snub.
  
• Given their reputations, it's frustrating that we probably won't get to see the following films (Academy recognition helps distribution happen) any time soon: Australia's aboriginal myth Ten Canoes, Egypts controversial contemporary drama The Yacoubian Building, Iceland's Children, Korea's The King and the Clown and Romania's The Way I Spent the End of the World.

For more on this Oscar race, click the updated foreign film page.


Tags: foreign films, movies, Oscars, Academy Awards, cinema, Film, Borat, Finland, France, Germany,Kazakhstan, Pedro Almodovar

Pert Epidemic Hits Hollywood

Only the strong survive.




Reese Witherspoon remains impervious to all attacks ... and fashion viruses.

Tuesday Top Ten: Alexander(s) The Great

Tuesday Top Ten! ~a new weekly feature. For the listmaker in me and the list lover in you

Ten Alexanders You Should Love
10. Alexandre Despatie well he's not in the movies but he does win gold. Plus he looks like this...

so you know...

09. Jane Alexander. A solid four-time Oscar nominated actor. Last seen as Nicole Kidman's icy mother-in-law in Fur. When is she going to have a comeback?

08. Aleksandr Sokurov Because the Russian Ark is a neato cinematic trick. I regret to inform that I have not seen anything else he's done. Anyone care to make a 'first things first' viewing suggestion from his catalogue?

07. Lloyd Alexander His fantasy series The Chronicles of Prydain is great fun and quite wonderfully cinematic. Disney gave it a bad rep with their awful adaptation (The Black Cauldron) back in the 80s but given that lengthy fantasy adaptations are all the rage ... Hollywood execs: get on this one!

06. Alexandre Dumas He wrote The Three Musketeers and who doesn't love swashbuckling? Oh and Queen Margot. Merci --I love the 1994 movie version.

05. Alexander Graham Bell. I hate talking on the telephone. But I like having one. Thanks.

04. Alexandre Desplat. The best new film composer in the world. Two years ago he won a devoted small army of fans for scoring the haunting Nicole Kidman flick Birth. Yesterday he won his first Golden Globe for The Painted Veil. It's a truly lovely film score.

03. Alexander Payne He hasn't made a bad movie yet. Famous last words, I know, but Citizen Ruth, Election, About Schmidt and Sideways? That's a grade A filmography.

02. Alexander the Great (2008never) by Baz Luhrmann. This movie does not really exist but I love it anyway. Because I love Bazmark movies as a general rule... principle. calling (?)


01. "Xander" Harris Willow's best friend. Buffy's ever faithful righthand man. Anya's true love. Cordelia's boytoy. Because he was always something for everyone and never anything for himself. But mostly because he was hilariously clueless (Season 1), looked great in a speedo (Season 2), lost his cherry to Faith (season 3), fell hard for Anya (Season 4 & 5), saved the world (Season 6) and lost his eye in (Season 7). I love you Xander!


Previous Tuesday Top Tens (New Series):
Best 2006 Movies from The Departed (sure) to Marie Antoinette (you heard me)
Movies by The Three Amigos Best of Cuarón, González Iñárritu and Del Toro

Awards Linkage

I know you need a break. I know you're probably hung over from whatever sick drinking games you thought up while watching the Globes last night. But it's time to face facts: The Golden Globes are only the beginning of Awards Season. Yes what you've just witnessed, the bronzer, the unnatural cleavage, the platitudes from megastar mouths: it's only the beginning.

The only thing that's ended is "precursor season." Awards season is just getting started. The sooner that you accept this sorry fate the better off you'll be. Especially if you visit this blog.

an orgy of kudos
Slant's annual Oscar prediction / venting
popbytes with a Globe rundown (lots of yummy red carpet photos)
Everything Oscar top ten list for 06 ~ from Casino Royale to The Departed
In Which Our Hero top ten list for 06 ~ from Duck Season to United 93
Hollywood Elsewhere on the absent Peter O'Toole
Defamer "Where Have All The Gay Cowboys Gone?" the Golden Globes
Trading Faces Re: The Globes, Brangelina's 'false eyelashes of power' and more

Joe & Nathaniel Discuss the Golden Globes

Promised you a Golden Globe aftermath discussion. Here's a teensy bitchy excerpt:

NATHANIEL: worst dressed: Cameron Diaz. just a mess.
JOE: Ugh. As I said last night: Advantage, Justin.
NATHANIEL: so true. she didn't bring sexyback to those awards
JOE: No. She's taking sexy away. Forever.

Read the rest for more on the mish-mash of the Best Picture race, the teeny-tiny heartbreaking hotness of Mark Wahlberg, a split decision on Penelope in Chanel, frightening hair trends, and the glorious perfection of Meryl Streep who understands the value of entertaining speech-making in a way that most denizens of Hollywood, an industry built on self promotion and propped up by public relations, mysteriously never seem to grasp.

Sing-Along with the Gyllenhaals

It's Jake on SNL doing the Dreamgirls number (in case you're one of the 10 people who hasn't yet seen it) and then Maggie's awesome pipes from Happy Endings. Re: the latter performance. It's easily one of the best performances of the decade that most people are still unaware of. The only awards play she got was an Independent Spirit Nomination (& of course a Film Bitch medal last year). You don't wanna know how often I listen to this number "I Can't Wait"

The Globes. They Kinda Like Everything.

In case you are living in a cave that has no television but does have internet connection, here are your winners from last night:

Best Pic, Drama: Babel
Best Pic, Comedy/Musical: Dreamgirls
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Best Actor, Drama: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress, Drama: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Actor Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
Best Actress, Comedy/Musical: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Best Screenplay: Peter Morgan, The Queen
Best Score: Alexander Desplat, The Painted Veil
Best Song: "Song of the Heart", Happy Feet
Best Animated Film: Cars
Best Foreign Language Film: Letters From Iwo Jima

UPDATE: There's more commentary here as well as an after ceremony discussion with Joe Reid.

Award Updates

Two quick notes for Globe revellers: ModFab is hosting a live chat starting at 7:45 PM tonight so join in. And for those who've been missing the comic stylings of Joe Reid, he and I will be doing a post-show discussion for your reading pleasure Tuesday. Check out his hilarious Globe predix. Me pal Nick also has his funny Globe thoughts up and he reminds me that Warren Beatty will be onscreen tonight which had somehow totally slipped my mind.

Woo-hoo ~You know what that means!
lots of camera time for The Bening. Wheeeeee. (I love u 2, Warren!)

Meanwhile, the 7th FiLM BiTCH Awards are finally and truly underway. Ten categories announced thus far: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Ensemble, Poster, Sexpot and four new entries just announced: Makeup and Visual Effects and Best Tagline and Adapted/Song Score. At this point Volver leads with five nominations. I'll wrap up the traditional categories before the Oscar nominations. The extras might take a smidgeon longer. Tomorrow the acting categories begin...

A Second Look at Dreamgirls

I'm getting excited for tonight's Globe ceremony, aren't you? While I wait I've been on a rewatching binge as I finalize decisions for my own personal "if I had an Oscar ballot" annual prize frenzy. In the past two days I've gone back to Little Children, Dreamgirls and The Black Dahlia -- quite a strange triple. But let's talk about Dreamgirls for now.

It helps to have your expectations lowered. That's no doubt been a hurdle for this musical all month since it opened after nearly an entire year of hoopla. The second time the performances felt more relaxed, less edited together. And it is pretty thrilling to finally see a musical where the stars can all actually sing. Consensus can often be wrong but in this case the media fervor for Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson is appropriate. They're highly entertaining, funny and best in show by a mile. Anika Noni Rose (who I adored from Broadway's Caroline or Change) has a terrific moment here and there (I adore her sungthrough climax "Lorell loves Jimmy") but she's largely sidelined.

Unfortunately the movie still seems hobbled by star demands: I like Beyoncé's "Listen" and it is not as jarringly out of place narratively as I felt on my virgin screening. In fact, it makes a nice second act counter to Jennifer Hudson's first act climax even its origins are in a bone being thrown to a big star. And speaking of bones thrown: the endless reaction shot closeups to/for Jamie Foxx absolutely kill scenes wherein you don't want or need to be looking at him. He's a distraction throughout.

The other flaw that will surely be counted as a strength at the Oscars is in the design. John Myhre has won two Oscars now for art direction, once for boring work on Chicago and the second for beautiful but hardly award worthy efforts on Memoirs of a Geisha which my friend MaryAnn Johansson described thusly "...shot at the Japanese pavilion at Epcot Center." It will be absolutely maddening if Myhre wins a third for this, especially when you consider the competition. Dreamgirls is often glossy and pleasing to look at but it's the costumes that are throwing off that lovely spark. On a second viewing you notice how flat and personality free the rest of it is. But the great hair, the diva makeup, the glittery dresses -- you just don't notice that there's not much else going on visually.

Happily for audiences, Dreamgirls has enough in the plus column: Eddie Murphy's entertainer instincts, the costumes, and Jennifer Hudson's powerhouse pipes that cover for any of its left feet elsewhere.

Tonight Dreamgirls will probably win the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical (though an upset by Devil Wears Prada or Little Miss Sunshine would be welcome) and it occurred to me that whatever and whoever wins, I'll be happy. My mind lept to the Oscars and I realized, with some surprise, that I don't much care there either --about the wins I mean. I feel free.

Last year I cared too much.

But mainstream cinema had an off year and since Oscar largely rewards mainstream efforts, I'm finding it much easier to take off my film fanatic hat and just wear my awards junkie cap. It's a good feeling for a change. As much as I think that The Departed is superior to Little Miss Sunshine which is superior to The Queen which is superior to Dreamgirls which is superior to Babel... in truth the range in quality isn't so different that I'll be tearing out my hair on Globe, Oscar, or SAG night. No modern classic (Moulin Rouge!, Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger, etc...) will be getting trounced by something inferior in every way. That's an enormous relief even if it means that the pickings were slim.

The Globes Are Coming

It's the Golden Globe Predictions I'm predicting an upset in Best Comedy or Musical. Just for kicks.


Read the predix and discuss. Agree. Disagree? I think the important categories to watch in terms of Oscar are Best Actor Drama (I'm not entirely convinced that Forest Whitaker isn't just a critics darling --this'll tell us if he can actually make a run for the Oscar against Peter O'Toole) and obviously Best Supporting Actor since it's been the most confusing category this year.

Another note for you Globe revellers... ModFab is hosting a live chat starting at 7:45 PM on Monday night which I'll be popping into briefly. And for those who've been missing the comic stylings of Joe Reid --we'll be doing a post-show discussion for your reading pleasure like we did last year)

I'll post three or four FB Awards tomorrow for sure. Thanks for your patience!

"I Hate Words"

I was rewatching Half Nelson the other night (and for the record, I sure did undervalue it the first time around) and there's this totally funny scene, early on, in a bar. Ryan Gosling, who plays the crackhead junior high teacher "Mr Dunne" is flirting with two girlfriends. He tells them that he's a writer. One of the girls, with a sideways glance to her friend, says "I hate words" with such vapid candor that I laughed out loud.

Me, I love words.

Here are my choices for Best Original Screenplays of the year. Two of them will surely be fighting it out for the Oscar and I'll cross my fingers for the longshot hopes of two of the others.

The Pursuit of Linkyness

For the Oscar fanatics
Oscar Survey have you sent yours to Eddie? You only have a few more days.
The Hot Button Get your ice skates out devils ... David Poland and I are totally together on this point.
Defamer Sienna Miller's last minute Oscar play. This is desperate even by Harvey Weinstein's standards.
Film Otaku wonders what it will take to win Winslet an Oscar?

For the rest of you
The Gilded Moose this question will seem redundant in so many ways but: what the hell is wrong with Paula Abdul? Seriously watch this video. What is wrong with her? What isn't wrong with her?
Nicks Flick Picks with brief but incisive notes on Letters From Iwo Jima, Children of Men, and Dreamgirls
Watts With Words I love mean reviews if the person deserves them. Watts eviscerates the latest from Mel Gibson. Only problem is this: evisceration will surely turn Mel on.
Cinemathematics defends the maligned unseen Tideland while taking Pan's Labyrinth to task while Cutting Room defends Manderlay and disses Tideland.
Ah the joys of divisive films...

Run, Glenn, Run

True story. I woke up very early this morning on account of a nightmare. In the dream I had to save Glenn of Stale Popcorn from a serial killer living in my apartment building. So Glenn, you owe me!

Um ... you're still alive, right?

whew good. OK, if you see anyone who looks like this


RUN!

Yes, Glenn...you must run away.

Even if they look like this

Hot Group Action

Made you look.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE
My nominees are posted. The reasons you'll always hear me complaining about SAG's choices in this category is because I think they're not paying attention to what an "ensemble" means (or maybe, more generously, they just don't have the same criteria as I do) To me "best ensemble" does not conjure up big casts with one scene stealing standout or simply big casts. To me examples of superior ensembles would be groups of actors who are tonally in balance with each other (everyone feels like they're in the same movie) and groups that use their internal chemistry in the scene work to elevate the movie.

This is one of the reasons I've always been a Robert Altman nut. He actually lets you see more than one performance at once. Most filmmakers cut so often to back and forth reaction shots that you miss the chance to see actors create the character dynamics in tandem. To me that's a shame.

In semi related news...

I had been planning on a post detailing my thoughts on The Dead Girl but it's obviously never going to see the light of day so an "ensemble" discussion is as good a place as any to talk about it: You'll notice that it's not in my nominee lineup. I know some people were plenty fond of its cast and I'll happily agree that three of them work wonders. I'm talking about the always wonderful/beautiful/awesome Kerry Washington, ISA Nominee Mary Beth Hurt and (surprise) Rose Byrne. But it's not much of a cohesive ensemble -- it's more like solo pieces strung together. And the unimaginative casting made me wince more than once. Toni Collette as an ugly unloved girl again? Brittany Murphy as a wildchild. Marcia Gay Harden as an uptight woman. And, worst of all, Piper Laurie all but reprises her Carrie role (only without the advantage of that hilarious final monologue)

He took me, with the stink of filthy roadhouse whiskey on his breath, and I liked it. I liked it!

I could babble about these actresses for hours, but I'll spare you turn it back over to you. What's your idea of hot group action in a movie -- which were your favorite ensemble this year? Anything like mine?

Penguins: More Vulnerable Than They Appear

For at least a month it has seemed like everyone assumed that Happy Feet would trounce its animated competition for this year's Animated Feature Oscar. If they did, it'd be the second year running that penguins captured a specialty division Oscar (they won the documentary prize last year with March of the Penguins) But is the assumption a safe one?


Though Cars took in more money, Happy Feet's loot has been remarkable securing it a solid place smack dab in the middle of the year's top ten hits. In terms of critical reception the story is also a good one. For the animated films of '06 it's second only to A Scanner Darkly on critical top ten lists. So what's with the ANNIE Nominations? It scored only 2. That can't be a good sign... that tally is easily bested by a number of titles including Ice Age, Open Season, Monster House, Flushed Away and Over the Hedge. Maybe I should change the rankings on my animated predictions page? Might Carzzz win this after all?