Monday, January 22, 2007

The Very Last Oscar Post Prior to The Actual Nominations on Tuesday. Aren't You Dying of Excitement?

And isn't the title of this post as obnoxious as you can possibly imagine? I try. I was going for just this side of 'shut up already! get on with it' as a way of paralleling my own feelings about the Oscars. Every year with this endless foreplay...

So, the race for those Oscar noms has been boring since December. That's right about when everyone and their dog agreed that Helen Mirren was the greatest actress to have ever lived (or at least as good as you know, 1/2 of Hilary Swank). That's when everyone drank the Kool-aid that there were only five movies released last year. For the record their names were: The Departed, The Queen, Babel, Dreamgirls, and Little Miss Sunshine.

The Final Predictions As with any year there is usually a teensy amount of drama in regards to who gets the fifth spot in any given shortlist. So here are my best guesses or in one case, my best throwing caution to the wind... who cares about statistics. UPDATE: There's even documentary feature and animated short predictions for completists!

Discuss in the comments. Agree? Disagree? What do you expect we'll see? Read those final predix ~ then hash it out in the comments. You got less than 24 hours to do so. While you're doing that I'll be preparing for Tuesday's nominations. Gotta build all the web pages and, as is my annual tradition, hold that séance to try to summon Jessica Tandy back from beyond the grave. See, she has this stolen Oscar and it still needs to get to its rightful owner. If I have to call on the dark forces to get it there, don't think I won't.


Anonymous said...

I'm pretty much with you, though have stuck with Gosling in favour of Baron Cohen... though I suspect there's barely a knife-edge between the two of them and you could well be right.

However, I think Breslin is a child-friendly SAG thing, and I reckon Blunt will make it back. If not, I think Collette will sneak in ahead of Breslin, or possibly even in place of Blanchett.



t'would be cool to see Collette back in Oscar's favor (such a consistent talent) but i'd be surprised if she's on more ballots than Breslin... just considering the role.

and i'd totally agree on Breslin were it not for how strong LMS has been playing since the beginning of precursor season

although i still think the surprise (if there is one) could very well be Farmiga.

I'm expecting to do terrible on SUPP ACTOR but then who will do well. it's so hard to read with 9 or 10 possibilities

and i've all but given up on the tech nods. i'm so burnt out this year. must figure out a different way to approach this next year

Anonymous said...

My predictions.

Picture: Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen.

Actor: DiCaprio, Gosling, O'Toole, Smith, Whitaker.

Actress: Cruz, Dench, Mirren, Streep, Winslet.

Supporting Actor: Arkin, Haley, Murphy, Nicholson. Hardest to predict. I'm going with Sheen.

Supporting Actress: Barazza, Blanchett, Breslin, Hudson, Kikuchi.

Anonymous said...

If Whitaker is marching to victory, what other noms will Scotland drag in with it tomorrow? It's rare for a Best Actor film with no other noms to win, though it's happened (Michael Douglas in Wall St, 1987). It could be screenplay - making Peter Morgan a double writing nominee - but Adapted is looking tight.

Remember 2001 when Denzel Washington was looking good in a movie with few other prospects for nominations? Who turned up in supporting actor that year but the lead of his film, Mr Ethan Hawke, with little prior awards attention? McAvoy is a real dark horse candidate for a nomination tomorrow. O, the category fraud if it happens! :)

Glenn Dunks said...

Yeah, I pretty much agree with you on most save for one (occasionally two) in a bunch of categories.

How strange that Eastwood in Best Director could be the only nom for either of his films to make it. What a weird rollercoaster ride that film had.

With you on Supporting Actress. I really wanna say Blunt or Farmiga... but knock out who? The only one I can conceive of is one of the Babel women, but they're both so strong, I wouldn't know which to dump.

Still can't understand why they made the SFX nominees stretched to five. Nobody cares! And if The Departed is being nominated then that's just silly. Or, with my limited understanding of the subject, it sounds silly.


well wasnt geisha nominated in the sound effects category or something too?

i guess you have to be a technician to understand.

Nigel said...

I'm going with McAvoy for Best Supporting Actor. Category fraud for sure, but what's new? It's been going on since the supporting categories were introduced.

I just can't imagine someone sitting down and watching Forest Whitaker's performance and not also being impressed with the young bloke's work as well.

This is almost certainly wishful thinking on my part, of course.

Anonymous said...

As far as I'm concerned, McAvoy should be winning Best Leading Actor. If he gets in as support, I'll be throwing toys out of the pram in disbelief. How exactly is he supporting? By being subtle? Jeez, any Academy voters who place him in the Support category need to get the Acting Bible out and start again at Chapter One.

[Rant over.]

That having been said, Hawke had at least turned up in the race by this point (SAG) before the Oscar nom, but McAvoy has sat most (all?) of the precursors out.

I think it's too competitive a field for McAvoy to place.


Michael Parsons said...

I am thinking the Collette thing as well. the Globes and BAFTA could be saying something.
I am happy to see you predicting Baron Cohen. I can totally see it (Bengini) happening, and I also can see poor Leo going home with nothing.

Anonymous said...

No way will there be two lone directors in the race. I hope the Sunshine Duo make it in.

Anonymous said...

I have a feeling that either DiCaprio or Smith will be snubbed tomorrow morning. It doesn't matter on how many ballots you got, but only the #1 and "those" actors who loved Borat will keep Baron Cohen in and those who love the Gosling and his performance will keep him in, but I think it's gonna come down to either Smith or DiCaprio...


BBats probably not, no. but I need to predict something just to keep myself interested ;)

Anonymous said...

I'm beginning to think Marky Mark Wahlberg'll get in... Maybe?

Anonymous said...

Actually, re: the embarrassment of riches, I think that translates into the films themselves, too. I mean, initially I was going along with the whole "stinky year" thing, but, fact is, I haven't wanted to include so many films on my Top 10 list in a long time. Even 2001, which I still think is best of the decade, didn't feel so jam-packed.

Maybe it's just that the films this year feel so INTERESTING. Like, my top seven maybe from 2001 I'm like "this is brilliant, end scene." This year, there are so many things that maybe didn't seem to work but intrigued me so much more.

Anonymous said...

Oh crap I meant to put this over in the Best Actress list, and now I'm embarrassed.

Brian Erickson said...

Ahh. It's not even 9 over here, but I still want to go to bed just so it'll be tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Ms. Tandy stole Jessica Lange´s Oscar in 1990.

John T said...

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! No Dreamgirls!!!!!

Yaseen Ali said...

Letters from Iwo Jima = Munich.

J.D. said...

The Cinematic Apocalypse is nye.

Dreamgirls - out.

Letter from Iwo Jima - in.

Jack Nicholson - out.

Borat - in.

The Departed - out.

Blood Diamond - in.

United 93 - out, yet in.

Pan's Labyrinth - in.

Volver - out.

After the Wedding - in.

What is wrong here?


maybe if Dreamgirls had released a "part two" like Clint did than the second part would have placed?

Anonymous said...

Your article is very informative and helped me further.

Thanks, David