Monday, December 01, 2008

Today's Oscar Puzzle: Supporting Actress 2008

Your assignment: Look over my Supporting Actress prediction page. Return and answer me these questions 6 before the precursors really begin?
  • Penélope Cruz. Does the Academy really want her to be "Oscar Winner Penélope Cruz" from now on or is that "Javier Bardem presents" fantasy merely a fanboy wet dream?
  • Groupthink says Cruz/Henson/Winslet/DeWitt/Davis give or take Tomei. Very warm... or "ha ha people think they have it figured out before the precursors hit every year. How annually gullible they are!"
  • Stealth Attack. Anyone under the radar that shouldn't be?
  • Whither Critics Awards? Doesn't it seem like the kind of year where they might be all over the place (at least here) and who does that benefit exactly?
  • Georgia all over again? Do you think there's a chance that Rosemarie DeWitt pulls a Mare Winningham '95 move (getting nom'ed instead of JenniferJasonLeigh in her Oscar vehicle) on Our Miss Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
  • Just for fun! Re: Amy Adams in Doubt... she's cute and all but which actresses do you think really ought to play nuns next?
Go...

37 comments:

Michael Parsons said...

1) I think the nom is hers, but I am not 100% convinced of the win. I think Davis could give her stiff competition. If people love Queenie (the heart of the film so they say) then it could be hers as well.

2) I think it is a pretty good line up but no one ever knows anything really....but at least three of these should make it.

3) I have been toying with Sophie Okenedo all season. The satellite award, although not a great precursor, it has gotten a pretty good batting average with Supporting actress. (getting better)

4) I have a nagging feeling it will be all over the place, which may be great news for people like DeWitt and Tomei, but may hurt people like Davis. If the pot is full, all the good stuff sinks to the bottom.

5) Likely to happen, although Winningham was from the brat pack, so had some popularity behind her before the role (Mad Men doesn't count)

6) Samantha Morton and Emily Watson were born to be in a habit!

mrripley said...

i think dewitt,davis,winslet,cruz and tomei.

Guy said...

If "The Visitor" becomes everyone's favourite indie pet, I wouldn't count out Hiam Abbass as a spoiler. (After all, in 2003, how many people were really talking about Shohreh Aghdashloo before the critics boosted her?)

And I hate to say this to you, Nat, but I think DeWitt is a lot stronger in Hathaway in "RGM." Two months after the fact, it's her performance that has stuck with me.

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or does this catergory seem like a bit of a snoozefest?

mrripley said...

i think hathaway will get snubbed too,not the right age not the right film,not the kind of oscar role for americas new sweetheart,timing is off i feel,dewitt may get in,does emma thompson really have a shot,i'd have loved to see her at the oscars in 03 for love actually has anyone else cried better on screen and in 06 for stranger than fiction,davis for the win i say i think one black person will win an award.

Ian said...

I think Kathy Bates for "Revolutionary Road" could definitely be an under-the-radar contender. Haven't seen the movie yet, but the role is good, and Bates is an Academy favorite.

Devon said...

1) i think a nomination is looking good but win not likely.
2)that sounds just about right.
3)i would like to say samantha morton, but not realistically. perhaps vera farmiga's campaign will be revitalized when the film is released/seen.
4)davis, dewitt, tomei, winslet
5)i guess there is a chance because i can see the actress great 8 still going any way. i do think they will want to honor hathaway and dewitt's performance isnt quite as showy as i would think they would honor, but this year she has a good shot.
6) has winslet ever done it? what about charlize theron?
-frank

Anonymous said...

Devon, Winslet was playing a nun in the funniest ever episode of Extras!

abstew said...

do you think javier will even show up? what with all the love-making and work exhaustion excuses, how would he ever find the time?

m. said...

- I don't think Cruz will win. definitely a nomination though.

- 4 out of 5. Not sold on Dewitt, her character is kind of a cipher and does not drive the movie emotionally.

- Elsa Zylberstein in I've Loved You So Long. People will see the movie because of the raves KST is getting and will discover her in the process.

- It could benefit Winger, if she gets cited by one group.

- No chance. Hathaway is in.

- Nicole Kidman

alicia said...

Yeah, Charlize Theron as a mean-spirited lesbian nun with a weakness for lemon juice would be my wet dream

Anonymous said...

Jolie gets in before Hathaway.
why ?

1) Changeling has good word of mouth and a strong box-office
2) BFCA gave it a higher rating than RGM
3) RGM is too ensembl-y
4) A Mighty Heart snub
5) It's Clint, goddamnit

Anonymous said...

1) Oscar winner I don't know...but Oscar nominee and Oscar presenter it's pretty sure!!!

2) I hope Winslet will go (and eventually win as) lead. So the line-up could be: Cruz-Davis-De Witt-Henson-Tomei and maybe Beyoncé...or that's just my wishful thinking...

3) Beyonce...why not? the reviews are good...it's a biopic...the role is baity...she's a star...even her perf in DREAMGIRLS generated a small buzz despite the outshining she suffered...

4) Henson, Tomei or
Davis could benefit a lot...

5) definitely possible...unfortunately. I wish Hathaway will be among the fab five...together with Winslet, Streep, Scott-Thomas and Jolie...

6) Beyonce...she could be the most sensual nun since the girls in The Black Narcissus...ok...I know, I know...that was a masterpiece and Kerr and Byron (shamefully both of them overlooked at the Oscars that year) were great actresses...but you can joke...I think...

mirko

abstew said...

penelope will be nominated for VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA, without a DOUBT (see what i did there? viola davis, you are in as well.)
but i feel that they are going to wait until next year to have her win for NINE. she's sexy! she's singing! remember how much we loved her last year in that woody allen movie? lets give it to her now!
she will just narrowly win over angelina jolie in the role of her career as a gangster's moll who becomes a gun-toting nun in the witness protection program. vengence has a new name and its...sister angie!

Daniel said...

1) definite nom. if she wraps up a bunch of critics awards, it's hers.

2) seems about right, but as more and more positive Benjamin Button reviews pour in, a likely sweep could put Taraji Henson back in the running.

3) see above - i'm rooting for her just for the scene in the trailer where she sees her 'baby' come home.

4) I feel like Davis and DeWitt will most likely reap the critics awards. if it's all over the place, DeWitt benefits for the size of her role, Davis suffers for the size of her role.

5) Still counting on Hathaway to get a nomination - she's still my performance of the year. hope springs eternal.

6) monica bellucci. in fact, some italian movie must surely have gone there already. Liv Tyler? Pouty lips + bambi eyes + nun's habit = wait, are we talking oscar fantasy or just plain fantasy?

Bob Turnbull said...

I haven't seen a whole lot of the performances unfortunately, but I'd be perfectly happy if they gave all 5 noms to the female cast of Synecdoche NY. Any of the 5 - they were all tremendous.

I initially thought that the "who should play a nun?" question was a serious one, so I was thinking that author Miriam Toews (who was great with very little dialogue in "Silent Light") would have a great face for a nun. But given the other answers, I'll go with Portia De Rossi and, to add some spice, Asia Argento...That would be a helluva nunnery.

Anonymous said...

1.- I just hope that if she wins, Javier won't be the reason. However, if Winslet finally goes supporting for The Reader, I think she has no chance of winning. Would it be so unlikely to have two actresses double nominated, i.e. Winslet for RR and the Reader and Cruz for Elegy and VCB? Has that ever happened?

To abstew: Javier spent most of his time at San Sebastian Film Festival (last September?) refuting his supposedly previous statements on many issues. One of them was the "one year to rest". He said it was false, and that he always takes his time in between movies, and that this time took him longer than usual. I know, I don't buy it either. Maybe he should choose a different publicist. ;)

Iggy

Anonymous said...

1) Cruz will definitely be nominated, and I'm expecting her to win as well.

2) I'm not completely sold on Henson, Winslet, or DeWitt yet. I think Winger is still a viable candidate and will probably receive a SAG nomination or perhaps one of the "Big 4" critics awards.

3) I would say Winger, but I don't think she's under the radar. Beyonce has been receiving some buzz lately, and, while I don't see her being nominated, she'll definitely receive a Golden Globe nomination.

4) I think it could be all over the place, but I'm expecting Cruz to take 2-3 of the "Big 4." Winger, DeWitt, and Davis seem most likely win some awards after Cruz.

5) Very possible. I can't help but feeling that Hathaway's buzz is slightly fading. Maybe that's just me overanalyzing the day-to-day shifts in the race, but it appears that I'm not alone.

James Hansen said...

Taraji and Kathy Bates are the two I think could easily get in the mix depending on how the films are widely received. BB may not be an acting showcase, but if its get rolling noms could be all over the place. Plus, the age transformation, if done well, is sure to impress. I think your top 3 are pretty much locks, but the other two could go to anyone. I love THE WRESTLER, but don't see a Tomei nom in the works unless the film really picks up once it is released and gets more noms than people are expecting now.

NATHANIEL R said...

iggy... in 1993 we had two double nominees

EMMA THOMPSON -remains of the day (lead -lost) in the name of the father (supporting -lost)

and

HOLLY HUNTER -the piano (lead-winner) the firm (supporting -lost)

Kurtis O said...

1. Wow, I hadn't even thought about the Bardem-as-presenter aspect. That would be quite a sight. I'm sure she'll land the nom but I've little faith in the win. I would've liked to see Rebecca Hall get a little more attention as Vicky. She lacked Penelope's fire, but I'm set to do a 'snubbed by Oscar' piece in Feb. and she's likely to make my list.

2. Very warm, I hope. I like the lineup. But I wouldn't count out Adams. While I surely don't swear by Karger, he seems to think "Doubt" is gonna clean up and a whole year's gone by since two actors from the same film ended up in the same category...or is that reserved for the right-hand men in "Milk?" Personally, I'd love to see Tomei sneak in there.

3. Winger. Yes, she looks regal. Yes, she exudes mystery. Yes, she gets to slap the little princess. But would this tiny role be getting so much buzz if it weren't such a tease of a comeback? ...Or, is that the whole point? Next question.

4. For God's sake, please spread them all over the place! Last year, I was all but ready to gut-punch anyone named Amy or Ryan because I was so sick of hearing or reading the combo of the two.

5. That'd be a shame -- I'm really rooting for Annie. On the other side of the coin, I don't want to see her get recognized if DeWitt doesn't. Both women blew me away, and if I weren't so achingly anticipating a Winslet victory somewhere, I'd be fine with both of them winning.

6. Zellwegger -- let's see just how much puffier her face can get when squeezed into a tight habit. Saw VI will need some competition in the horror arena, right?

Kurtis O said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Yay, round 2!

1. I hadn't thought about that. The costar of your film, current boyfriend, and last year's champ in supporting actor rewards his girlfriend with an Oscar. That could be a spectacular "Oscar" moment. I think that after "Volver", the Academy has a newfound respect for Penelope Cruz, and they're wanting to diversify their nominees and winners, so why not her? It could definitely happen.

2. I have Adams/Cruz/Davis/Winger/Winslet in my predictions. Henson is right there at my number 6. This bleeds into #3, but I don't see too many nominees on the horizon to overtake the anointed frontrunners.

3. People have seemed to discount Amy Adams, but she's a hot commodity and far better known than her co-star, Viola Davis. But here's someone to watch out for. ALISON PILL! Seriously, she held her own against Patricia Clarkson in "Pieces of April", is a Tony nominee for "The Lieutenant of Inishmore", and is the de-facto lady in a sea of dudes in "Milk", so instant notice. I'd say to watch out for her.

4. I think that supporting actor will all be in lockstep for Heath Ledger, but in supporting actress, it will likely be more of an "anything goes" approach.

5. I think that Anne Hathaway has already cemented her nod in the final five, so no, I don't see a "Georgia" situation happening with Rosemarie DeWitt in supporting actress over Anne Hathaway in lead. I think the only way DeWitt gets in is if Anne Hathaway is also nodded. OR more likely DeWitt is snubbed for Winger. OR Hathaway alone.

6. I think Amy Adams is getting nominated! Did you all hear that Natalie Portman was this close to landing the role instead of Adams, but refused it b/c she couldn't picture herself playing a chaste character? I think that Scarlett Johansson could have pulled off this role. Maggie Gyllenhaal too.

Fun game!

Anonymous said...

1) Nomination, sure, but win, I'm not 100% convenced of the win. Especially for Winslet effect

2) Cruz/Davis/DeWitt/Henson/Winslet is a great lineup. I think marisa will be snubbed

3) The Satellite Nominations gives us an interesting idea:
*Sophie Okonedo: strange!.
*Beyonce Knowles: I'm scarred, but yes, she's received fine reviews, and plus: biopic with physical transformation...
*Hiam Abbass: Maybe Richard jenkins is in the line, but the israeli actress could get Shohreh Aghdashloo's effect...
*elsa zylberstein: I don't know about her, maybe she's out...
*Vera Farmiga: If the film is fantastic like Toronto, she's IN.

4) Winslet, Davis and Cruz

5) If Hathaway is out, DeWitt is out. If Hathaway is in, MAYBE DeWitt is in.

6) Kate Winslet! I remember her in Extras!

Anonymous said...

emma thompson may be the only satellite nominee that has a chance of winning some precursors and maybe reentering the race. i didnt see this but it was a well reviewed performance when it came out

Anonymous said...

1): Cruz is definitely a nominee but I don't think she'll get the win (unfortunately). I think Viola Davis or DeWitt (if they like RGM enough) will take the prize.

2): That's definitely been the consensus but things could change right? If buzz about the Reader continues to grow, Winslet might not be able to pull of the category fraud. Also, with Blanchett getting a lot of buzz for BB, maybe the Academy won't reward Henson. I would watch out for Bates or Winger off of the academy's love them and Abbass or Zylberstein if they really love the corresponding lead performances (Jenkins and Scott-Thomas).

3): Umm, other than Abbass and Zylberstein I think Beyonce Knowles or Emma Thompson could get a globe "star-f**kers" bump and possibly make it in. Crazier things have happened right? Both have baity roles...

4): I agree that the critics will go all over. I think it means good things for Cruz, who the academy already knows and DeWitt, who has an easily identifiable role in her film.

5): I think it is a possibility that DeWitt could make the cut while Hathaway misses. With Blanchett's buzz the Actress race is suddenly at 7 competitors for 5 slots (Hathaway, Blanchett, Winslet, Streep, Hawkins, Jolie, Scott-Thomas). Yet, I think both will make it.

6): Samantha Morton would be great as would Helen Mirren. As for younger actresses, I think Claire Danes or Emmy Rossum might make a good nun. Ha, I'd pay to see Scarlett Johansson in a nun outfit just for the novelty.

Co said...

1) She's got the nomination, but I personally think she will fail to win. Someone else in a more "serious/dramatic" role will take it.

2) It's true that nobody knows anything, but these nominees seem pretty possible right now.

3) Elsa Zylberstein in I've Loved You So Long?

4) Over the place, defenetly. That will help girls from 'Rachel Getting Married' and Marisa Tomei.

5) I think borth get nominated. But, yes, DeWitt has stronger chances than Hathway right now.

6) Kate Winslet. If it finally gets her the Oscar.

gabrieloak said...

I would be disappointed if Adams is nominated for Doubt. It's not that great a role unless they've made it more interesting than in the play.

The supporting actress category right now is one of the hardest to predict at the moment, though it does look like Cruz is close to a lock.

Billy D said...

Allison Pill as stealth nominee?

Arkaan said...

1. Nomination, likely (though I'd still rank DeWitt has higher, honestly), win doubtful.

2. Groupthink solidifying this early is more likely right then wrong, I'd wager. I'd point to 2006's best actress category as an example. Nathaniel, it's worth pointing out that you yourself had four of the five nominees in the supporting actress category in November in 2006, and only because you stubbornly excluded Blanchett (it changed by December, but I don't know when).

The big thing is that a lot of the contenders haven't come out yet. From that ones we've seen, we feel comfortable about Cruz and DeWitt. I think confusion about category fraud could rule out Winslet. If Revolutionary Road has coattails, Bates may be the surprise contender.

3. Stealth attack? Right now, I'm thinking Vera Farmiga. Why? Well, screeners are out to voters already, she's had a noteworthy run these past few years. Everyone who's worked with her seems to respect her. She's playing a "real" person.

4. A scattershot race benefits... the ones who've been out the longest (time enough to gather partisans - example: Castle-Hughes over Kidman in 2003) and those who get early traction with critics awards (example, Gay-Harden in 2000 over Ziyi and Zeta-Jones).

5. I doubt it. 1995 was one of the strongest years for leading ladies EVER. You can make four different line-ups that would demolish 1994's. This year is not so strong.

6. Maggie Gyllenhaal. Viktoria Winge.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry, but I don't know why everyone is predicting Cruz for the win. I saw the movie and I thought she was kind of overrated. She will be nominated, but a win hell no.

It's Winslet vs. Davis.

Bernardo S said...

1) A probable nomination, no win. The win will be Winslet's or Davis's. Though I can see a Swinton here with Rosemarie DeWitt winning.

2) No Henson I predict. Tomei instead of Henson.

3) Hiam Abass sounds really Shoreh Aghdashloo, doesn't she?

4) Kate Winslet will be hurt by critics, since many will award her as Lead (either in The Reader or for body of work). I can see DeWitt benefitting from critics, as well as Tomei.

5) It's becoming more possible every day and would be something definite if Best Actress was not so empty. Changeling may have suffered too much for Angie to get nominated.

6) How awesome would it be to have Julie Delpy as a nun in a period film who secretly reads "forbidden" books and writes poetry?

adam k. said...

I think supporting actress will be hard to predict right up until the ceremony, with Cruz, Davis and Winslet all having precursors/things in their favor. And since there are three of them splitting votes, the final winner could even end up being a 4th (like last year).

I think Cruz will take NBR and/or LA to get her off to a strong start, David will take NYCC, maybe DeWitt will take NSFC, and the rest will be all scattershot between everyone.

It could end up a lot like 2002, when you had Moore with two nominations and lots of heat from that, CZJ as the fiery Hollywood entry (Cruz) and Streep, who almost won simply on merit (kinda like Davis).

I'm still thinking Cruz will pull it out - she deserves it, both for VCB and for Volver - but a lot really depends on what happens with Winslet.

I think the list will be Cruz/Davis/DeWitt/Henson/Winslet.

adam k. said...

Oh, and I think Cruz will win the globe fairly easily (maybe that can be the Javier moment?), but will lose the SAG, meaning oscar night will be tense.

Glenn said...

Anon @ 8.44 - Have you read the entry? Almost nobody is predicting Cruz will win.

At the moment I'm thinking... she will. I dunno.

Who will be this year's Amy Ryan? Hiam Abbas. That's my prediction and I'd love for it to come true and for her to land an Oscar nomination. Although I'd also be happy if Elsa Zylberstein became the critics favourite. Or Davis, too, but she's already right in the thick of things.

Notluke said...

I put Abbas as my prediction way back when the Actress Psychic Contest started, so I sure as heck won't change my mind now (except for changing Lead to Supporting, natch).

I also think that Huston (and/or MacDonald (and/or Rockwell, though in a different category :P)) will get more precursor love than everyone thinks for Choke. And although the film's poor reviews should stop any of them from getting nominated for the biggies... remember The Golden Age?

StinkyLulu said...

I rambled on endlessly in response to Nathaniel's post here. The highlights: Cruz is still the frontrunner for the nom and the win; things are about as locked as usual; Freida Pinto and Sophie Okenedo; Hiam Abbass, Elsa Zilberstein and Debra Winger to be most helped by the precursors; I think DeWitt's chances for a nomination are about 50/50; and don't forget about the 3rd Annual Supporting Actress Blogathon!