Monday, February 01, 2010

Oscar Predictions ~ Final

My life just isn't cooperating with timely prediction-making this past month.

Here are the final predictions for tomorrow morning's nominations. In the end I just went with worst case scenario for the final Best Picture slot... the one I could easily see going to about 7 different movies. I figured it was between Nine more typically Oscarable than its competitors... even if everyone decided they hated it after the initial rounds of precursors supported it. (If everyone really hates it, who exactly was voting for it initially? It's a serious question. And my presumption is that not everyone hates it), District 9 (doing very well in the guilds but totally abnormal as a BP pick), Crazy Heart (which doesn't feel big enough but which definitely has some momentum), The Hangover (which has defied odds thus far), The White Ribbon (remember when foreign films used to become Best Picture contenders?) and I settled on The Blind Side (shudder) and this way I'll either be OK because I prepared for the worst or be happy that it didn't make the cut.

I shall already warn y'all that I'll be fairly late writing things up tomorrow. But we have plenty of time to hash it all out over the next month. No rush.


mrripley said...

I am gonna say this Hilary Swank is no worse in Amelia and the film no worse than Pfeiffer and Cheri,Bullock and The Blind Side or Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria & Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

"even if everyone decided they hated it after the initial rounds of precursors supported it. If everyone really hates it, who exactly was voting for it initially?"

That is, in a nutshell, my issue with the reception of Nine. Dislike it if you wish, but so many critics who were mum before the embargo were mum, but subtly positive, and soon as the worm turned it was all - horrible, horrible, horrible.

Unless they were just saying that because they figured most would like it, which is just a dismal prospect [but possible].

Anonymous said...

The precursors who supported Nine were the BFCAs and the Globes... with both of these awards I could definitely imagine people voting for it without having seen it under the assumption it would be a big contender.

kent said...

it's hard to imagine the academy honoring 2 or 3 sci-fi films as the best pictures of the year. great if they do but still seems unlikely to me. why would they nominate 2 more when they can just vote for something they like, AVATAR, with incredible technical achievements.

i still say NINE has a shot, simply because of the big names associated with it, on and off camera, and the production value. hollywood does vote for who and what they know of. remember how marshall's 2005 film managed to score so many wins and noms.

Kyle said...

I find this "guess the bottom 5 nominees" (the ones that don't stand a chance to actually win) to be pretty fun if pointless...the ten nominees for best picture with only five still for best director kills the suspense that the ten-expansion was supposed to bring.

Robert Hamer said...

Christopher Nolan, Charles Roven and Emma Thomas have every right to be bitter as hell if The Blind Side becomes a Best Picture nominee.

Kyle said...

I think they have the right to be bitter already, but even moreso when Avatar becomes a nominee, much less The Blind Side or The Hangover.

Anonymous said...

Please correct Meryl's profile...she won Satellites.

Victor said...

The more I think about the bottom 5 the more I think Harvey Weinstein will work his magic yet again and get Nine a best picture nomination.
Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 nominations and with 10 nominees it probably would have been nominated for best picture and it was worst than Nine.
And 10 best picture spots didn't change who vote for the Oscars: they still love the middlebrow prestige films they always have!! Those are the people that nominated The Reader last year, Finding Neverland, Chocolat and otheer stinkers.
All all those stinkers have one thing in common: Mr. Harvey Weinstein. If anyone can make a bad movie be nominated its Harvey.

PS: I'm not a Harvey hater at all. I Think his one of the most fascinating people in industry. 50 years from now I think people will see him as a folkloric legend the way DeMille and Selznick are seen today.


mrripley -- you've finally lost your mind. AMELIA was h-o-r-r-i-b-l-e. those other films are good to average to bland.

mrripley said...

That maybe the case Nat with the films inc Amelia but I don't feel Swank was THAT BAD!!!! she had quite a few stirring scenes and the laugh as she comes in after her first solo crosiing was well done,I know Gere and Mcgregor seemed lost but Swank was right on for me and I AM NOT A LOVER OF HERS,the accent and the way she held herself i would be more likely to put her name before Streep,Bullock,Blunt,Pfeiffer and countless others.

I know no one will agree with me 'cos this is the place to come if you wanna bash Swank.

Bill_the_Bear said...

Having ten spots really does make the BP guessing hard.

I ended up putting "Crazy Heart" in my 10, since I can see it "coasting" in on the wave of buzz for Jeff Bridges. (Could it even generate enough buzz for a nomination for Gyllenhall?)

Of the others you mention, my guesses would be:

Nine--No (despite the Weinsteins);
"A Serious Man"--Maybe (but I hope not);
"District 9"--Maybe (and I put it on my 10 list);
"The Blind Side"--No (despite Bullock);
"The Hangover"--No.

Another complication: Will "Up" really get a BP nod...or will there be enough voters who will think "It will get Best Animated Feature, so why 'waste' a BP vote on it?"

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel have you seen the new Vanity Fair young Actresses cover , instead of the putting color on the back panel they just eschew and women of color altogether

Anonymous said...

tony d said...

i think The Hangover has a serious chance of being nominated, the Globe win a big box office and just seems to be a movie people really enjoy and i think A Serious Man has the advantage of being a Coen Bros movie

Stella said...

speaking of awards, whatever happened to the Film Bitch Awards?!?!

Peter said...

What's amazing is that this year, more than any previous that I can remember, would be super easy to predict the shortlist if there were only 5 nominees:

Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

Right? No one else would have a shot. (And it's also a perfectly respectable list of decent films.)

BrianZ said...

I don't want to believe it, but I do think The Blind Side will get a Best Picture nomination.

Yonatan said...

The only movie ever to win the Golden Globes Musical/Comedy category for its only nomination: Babe (1995) - and it was nominated for Best Picture (and surprised everyone). That's good news for The Hangover.

John D. said...

Sandra Bullock has received two Razzie nominations for All About Steve (Worst Actress, Worst Screen Couple). Will this hurt her Oscar chances for The Blind Side?

GregWA said...

I live in a beautiful world where Avatar gets no nominations in major categories. In my world, that opens up slots in Best Picture for films that actually deserve it. Come to my world.

PPO-10 said...

It figures they expand to 10 under the (misguided) notion that populist BP nominees would help ratings in the year that The Biggest Grosser Ever would have been a shoo-in for a nod in a 5-film list...or, hell, a 2-film list. It serves them right when "Fighting" becomes a BP nominee tomorrow.

Travis said...

Here's my predictions:

Travis said...

Oops that didn't work. I'm expecting "Inglourious Basterds" and "Avatar" to tie for most nominations, and I'm actually predicting an "Invictus" snub, which is probably wishful thinking (as is putting "500 Days of Summer" in my top 10 for Best Picture)

As long as Diane Kruger and Jeremy Renner are nominated I'll be satisfied.

Jake D said...

I'm predicting Up is out, Nine is in.

I just can't picture many Academy members bothering to put Up in their top 3 or 4 when they're certainly not going to do it for final balloting.

Amir said...

i'm pretty sure, or at least i hope it happens, that the spot you gave to blind side will belong to district 9 come tomorrow morning.
all your other contenders seem like the ones they'll pick.

Victor said...

Nathaniel, The Princess and the Frog score was ruled inelegible by the Academy Music Branch and their crazy rules.

Victor said...

Nathaniel, The Princess and the Frog score was ruled inelegible by the Academy Music Branch and their crazy rules.

brandz said...

if The Blind Side makes the final cut for Best Picture nomination, does this give Bullock a leg up on Best Actress? Conversly, if Julie & Julia makes Best Picture cut, does this give Streep a leg up on Best Actress win?

Anonymous said...

* "District 9"'s screenplay is adapted (it was nominated as such by BAFTA and Scripter).
* The score from "The Princess And The Frog" was disqualified by the Academy.

Anonymous said...

My predictions:

Not too many risky choices.

Marsha Mason said...

Maybe it's me, but Blind Side seems less Academy stupid (e.g. The Reader) and more stupid stupid (e.g. Step Up 2 Da Streets), so I'm really hoping it doesn't get in.

My guesses for the final two are District 9 (good year for sci-fi, and helped by Avatar) and Crazy Heart (more their type.)

brandz said...

i'm thinking Julie & Julia could actually make the final cut and get a Best Picture nod.

Phil said...

A few "surprises" that I'm predicting:

"Up" will NOT be nominated for Best Picture, but "The Hangover" will.

Tobey Maguire will be nominated for Best Actor (Freeman will not).

The Academy will go crazy for "Crazy Heart" (Picture, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay)

Anthony Mackie will be nominated for Supporting Actor, as will Matt Damon for Invictus (I'm not feeling this Tucci or McKay love)

And finally, since we need one horrible pick every year: "Avatar" will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay :(

adam k. said...

Yeah Nathaniel, Randy Newman's score was ruled ineligible because it's mostly songs. So I wouldn't predict it ; )

Also, why are Fantastic Mr. Fox and District 9 nowhere near your adapted screenplay predictions?? I think they'll be the final two nominees (Crazy Heart would be my alternate choice).

I think the Gyllenhaal prediction may well pay off, though.

Marsha Mason said...

I'm feeling Mackie too. Damon, McKay, Plummer, Tucci feel like they peaked ages ago. And hopefully they're looking for places to honor Hurt Locker since it's the front-runner.

Anonymous said...

I think Mirren is in. I don't buy the whole "nobody has seen the Last Station", 'cause she was nominated for a SAG, and you need more people to watch your movie for a SAG nod than an Oscar.

Mike F said...

I have a bad feeling 500 Days of Summer is going to be left out of Original Screenplay..

Anonymous said...

I really hope that the 10th spot doesn't go to The Blind Side. I mean, I enjoyed both Sandra and the movie, and I'm all for giving her a nomination as a career-honors type thing (the award itself, however, is a different story), but there's no way in Hell that The Blind Side is one of the 10 best films of this year.

I still think Nine will come through. The actors obviously liked it, because it did get that ensemble nod, and Harvey Weinstein has gotten worse movies in when there were only 5 spots.

For the last spot, I'm between District 9 and Crazy Heart. All signs point to D9, but it's not really their thing, so I don't know what to make of it. And Crazy Heart's buzz is building....

I'm still not convinced that A Serious Man will make the cut. Call me crazy, but that's my gut feeling.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

I think the Gyllenhaal prediction may well pay off, though.

I think so too which is why I'm predicting her and Diane Kruger for the last two spots. Kruger seems fairly safe at least compared to Moore, Morton, and the million other supporting actresses still in the running for those final spots this year since she got the SAG nomination, has been campaigning a lot, has Harvey's support, and [i]IB[/i] will probably get many other nominations which could help her "coast". Melanie Laurent has been pretty absent on the awards circuit, isn't well known as Kruger is, and I think the early category confusion will really hurt her like it did Marion Cotillard.

Then, I think it will be Maggie Gyllenhaal because I think [i]Crazy Heart[/i] peaked at just the right time, and because Bridges seems as locked as Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz now, it will help her getting a nomination ala Denzel Washington and Ethan Hawke in Training Day. Plus, I think she's one that they would love to welcome into their club one day, and Crazy Heart seems like the best (safest) chance to finally nominate her.

Also, like Bill_the_Bear and Marsha Mason, I think Crazy Heart and District 9 will get those last two spots; although I still wonder if they'll really nominate Up even with 10 slots. It does really feel like The Blind Side is more stupid stupid than Academy stupid to me also. I think The Hangover is just too lowbrow for them, and that there won't be three sci-fi movies in the top 10, maybe not even two but District 9 feels like it has more pluses than some of the other choices (of course, I thought that about The Dark Knight last year too).

I'm feeling Mackie too. Damon, McKay, Plummer, Tucci feel like they peaked ages ago. And hopefully they're looking for places to honor Hurt Locker since it's the front-runner.

I put Mackie instead of Damon, along with Waltz, Harrelson, Tucci for TLB, and Plummer, because I think if they really love The Hurt Locker, he'll be pulled in. Of course, I'm worried that Penelope Cruz and Matt Damon will both get filler nominations because they got the precursors that nominees are suppose to get despite there being a plethora of other choices out there that they could go with instead of their hive mind.

ajnrules said...

Hmm. Logorama is an...interesting pick for the 5th spot in the Best Animated Short category. I liked the premise of the film - a world full of logos, but the story was stupid and not very entertaining. I'd predict French Roast or The Kinematograph for the 5th spot, but it is very hard to predict since it's darn near impossible to watch a lot of the shortlisted film.

But it doesn't really matter, because Nick Park has this in the bag, although my personal favorite in the category is The Cat Piano. I am so hoping for an upset...but it's not gonna happen.

poopy said...

I can't believe you and others are picking the meatball movie over the miyazaki for best animated feature nomination. I haven't seen any of these movies but I have a hard time believing the animators will pass over a living legend like miyazaki over a movie where all the characters look like their hyper on crack.

Seanie said...

Seriously no technical nominations for 2012. I think you're dead wrong there

Bill_the_Bear said...

Here are my "Big Six" category predictions:

A Single Man
An Education
Crazy Heart
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
Up in the Air

Kathryn Bigelow
James Cameron
Lee Daniels
Jason Reitman
Quentin Tarentino

Jeff Bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
Jeremy Renner

Woody Harrelson
Christian McKay
Alfred Molina
Stanley Tucci (for J&J, not Bones)
Christoph Waltz

Emily Blunt
Sandra Bullock
Carey Mulligan
Gabourey Sidibe
Meryl Streep

Vera Farmiga
Maggie Gyllenhall
Anna Kendrick
Diane Kruger