Monday, October 27, 2008

Prediction Revamps -Best Picture

I've narrowed my Best Picture chart to 15 (and flipped back to my September predictions --I briefly lost faith in Benjamin Button but it's returned) but since the studios have played a shell game with roughly 2/3rds of their presumed hopefuls waiting till December, we won't know much with any certainly until very late in the game. But for the first time I'm looking at my predicted five and thinking "this could TOTALLY happen". I can hear these five titles as a flash-forward January 22nd 2009 utterance... "And the nominees are: Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire" ... can't you?


It's a plausible mix even if we still know too little. If enough of the November/December bids in the top 15 underperform (and some will) expect buzz for well regarded pre-Fall pictures like The Dark Knight, The Visitor or WALL•E to reignite. Plus there's always the outside chance that films like Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler or Happy-Go-Lucky (all of which have goo-goo eyed fanbases) could fill an unloved vacuum if the more typically Oscar-Sized films don't endear themselves to enough voters. You have to win their hearts to top their ballots.


Updates Complete: Picture, Director, Foreign Film, Costume Design (new pics!), Screenplay, Sound Categories, Actor and Supporting Actor,
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18 comments:

the film kiwi said...

Hi there, awesome film blog! I have recently started a film review and film related stuff blog also and its alot of fun! Your writing is awesome, not just reviews too lots of other interesting stuff to check out. Thanks for your blog, i have taken a lot of encouragement and inspiration. Have a good one :)

Anonymous said...

Like always...you always build up toward the actress races...my actressuality can't take it no more!!!Thats the revamp Im waiting for lol

Lev Lewis said...

We have the exact same predicted five.

Oscar_enthusiast! said...

I want it all from high school musical 3 is catching a Lotta buzz everybody I know who's seen it say that its the closest HSM gets to a nomination and as much as the Oscars love to have Disney in the song category i say its a contender!
plus big box office!
that counts right?

Fox said...

Don't count out Gran Torino. Clint Eastwood always comes in late and snags a spot.

James Hansen said...

I'm not sold on SLUMDOG being a real contender. Now, granted, there is always one nominee that isn't a real contender, but I don't see it getting nominated. I think Searchlight will end up pushing harder for THE WRESTLER which (I hope because I like it more) has more Oscar potential. I can see RACHEL or WALL-E fitting in as well, but I think if they run a smart Oscar campaign, we could see a lot of THE WRESTLER in there. Or at least I hope so...

Anonymous said...

Now my 5 BP nominees are "Milk", "Doubt", "Rachel Getting Married", "The Dark Knight", and "Frost/Nixon".

Anonymous said...

The Dark Knight (6 noms)
BP BSA BC BFE BSM BSE
Doubt (5 noms)
BP BLA BSA BAS BOMS
Milk (5 noms)
BP BD BLA BSA(Brolin) BOS
Revolutionary Road (9 noms)
BP BD BLA(Winslet) BSA(Shannon) BAS BOMS BAD BC BFE
Slumdog Millionaire (4 noms)
BP BD BAS BFE

NATHANIEL R said...

Fox --don't remind me ;) I hate it when the Oscars are like the EMMYs so the perennials kinda annoy me. one of the best things about the Oscars is that you get a new field every year (theoretically)

James --that surprises me. i prefer THE WRESTLER too but people love that feel-great finale in SLUMDOG and WRESTLER is such a downer. I don't feel down when a downer is revelatory but Oscar voters do.

many of you -- I would LOVE Rachel Getting Married to get a spot but i'm trying to avoid too much wishful thinking or else funnel it all into AUSTRALIA ;)

James Hansen said...

I think THE WRESTLER will slide into that spot that BLOOD did last year. And Oscars haven't been as keen on thrillingly happy films like SLUMDOG in a while. (i.e. NO COUNTRY, THE DEPARTED, CRASH, MILLION DOLLAR BABY...) If SLUMDOG gets a spot, I really don't think it has a chance at winning and I think the Rourke-dom will carry WRESTLER to a lot of noms. Just a hopeful hunch.

Luigi De Angelis S. said...

Seems like I will hate 2009's Academy Awards.

Fox said...

I think Anon has a good bet with Frost/Nixon. I saw the trailer yesterday, and while it doesn't look that great to me, it has the look of the type of film that the Academy just LOVES.

But Nathaniel, if I was to bet today, I would say you are on track with Australia, The Dark Knight, and Milk. Though, I think Milk will be the "dark horse". It will probably be more in play for Best Actor, but best pic seems doubtful.

the romantic said...

I'm thinking: Australia, Milk, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Dark Knight.

Doubt and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button are my alternates.

Again, I'm surprised BB is #1 in your list - I know you said you've gained your faith in the movie back... but #1? The only good buzz that has come from the movie is from Jeff Wells.. and well, I won't go any further than that.

Overall, I agree with most. You have a great site. =)

Sally Belle said...

Please make High School Musical go away.

If any of those bratty fucks are at the Oscars, I'm gonna cry.

NATHANIEL R said...

sally -- agreed. enough with pretending that made for tv movies are movies. argh.

Casey F said...

when are we gonna get a proper ben button one sheet?

gabrieloak said...

I don't think The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture. And I have my doubts about Doubt and Frost/Nixon, too. Award winning plays usually look deadly on the screen.

Anonymous said...

"The Dark Knight" is going to make history being the first superhero film to be nominated and the first to have an actor winning an Oscar (Ledger). Sadly he will not be ther to receive it...