Sunday, April 05, 2009

2009 Oscar Predictions, The Actresses

It's the first Oscar predictions of the year. Well, the first ones by me. In the olden days -- in internet time I am now practically Methusaleh (sigh) -- I was nearly always first with my April Fools based predictions. Now everyone and their shut-in neighbor does them before the current years winners have even shaken their hangovers. (The booze flows at that Vanity Fair party, man). So now I pull up the rear. I don't look at anyone else's predictions (well, except yours... because I have to) until I've made mine so as not to be unduly influenced by someone else's prophesies or overall groupthink.

And I do well [pats self on back].

I usually begin by amassing a gargantuan list of possibilities. I then whittle away using gut instincts, past performances, the director involved and the type of role until I'm left with a bakers dozen or so who I could easily see being in play. Then I torture myself and put them in order of likelihood (to be nominated, not to win). And then I hand you the BEST ACTRESS chart.

For entertainment purposes only. The charts don't reflect my specific preferences since I don't have them yet (beyond the generalized love for certain actresses). For the past two years in Best Actress I've scored 3 of the 5 correct this far in advance. So, once you've seen my predictions... feel free to trash 2 of my gut instincts.

Naturally, I'm a little shakier in Supporting Actress. It's harder to understand the supporting races before the films arrive. Often we don't know the details of the roles. We never know the amount of screentime. These categories are also far more prone to being influenced by the overall feelings towards the film that houses them than the lead categories are. That makes early predictions tough. I've only scored 3 of 5 once in supporting actress a whole year in advance. That was the banner year of Chicago (2002) where I saw Queen Latifah coming (among others) months before anyone else did. Last year I managed 2 of the 5 this early (Viola & Taraji) -- 3 if you count Kate who ended up winning in the Best Actress category. That same "half right!" event could happen again this year since I've opted to put Meryl Streep's Julia Child in the BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Chart.

More categories to come. Discuss!


adelutza said...

I like your actress leads predictions Nate - I love that you included Pfeiffer contrary to what a lot of people believe. Not sure about Emily Watson - thou I think she's a great actress, her films are usually too indie for the Academy. As for Abbie Cornish I have to say I haven't seen anything that I remember her name from.

Jim T said...

At last!! Once again, great work!

Jim T said...

adelutza, Pfeiffer was no1 in the psychic voting so he didn't exactly go against the flow. :p

But honestly, who is Abbie Cornish???

There are so many ladies I want to see nominated but ony 5 spots. Damn! Anyway, I want to see Meryl getting a third but, supporting? Maybe another year?

I also want to see Sarandon getting another nod. I miss her being worshipped!

James Colon said...

Still early, but do you think Stanley Tucci is the early-bird favorite in Best Supporting Actor for THE LOVELY BONES? He's been a great actor for a long time, but has never done Oscar bait--and this role seems pretty meaty (he plays the killer).

Fernando Moss said...

How amazing would it be to hace Streep, Weaver, Bates and Clarkson in the same lineup?


and MO'NIQUE ;)

yeah, sounds too good to be true.

Anonymous said...

Interesting predictions, nath:

I like it:
*Emily Watson and Carey Mulligan's inclusions
*Sigourney Weaver and Patricia Clarkson's surprising places.
*Hilary Swank out of the top ten.

I don't like it:
*At least one of the Nine ladies in the top five.
*Where's Rachel Weisz for "Agora"?
*michelle Williams out of the top ten.

I don't know:
*Saorsie Ronan's campaign: I know she's lead in the book, but also in the film?

Cinesnatch said...

Great guesses Nathaniel! I am only confident in the Mulligan guess as well. And I also think Watson has it too if it were not for the lack of distribution plan. And I like how we agree Dench is the likeliest to get nominated, though I think putting all the Nine actresses in supporting was wise. (I think your order of them is perfect)

Anonymous said...

I wanna know the visual effects. Come on, give it to me

Kelsy said...

I've kind of been in love with Romola Garai since she appeared in a TV adaptation of Daniel Deronda. She's made some other quirky films (I Capture the Castle) and travesties (Dirty Dancing 2) but she hasn't really had a big break out role.

Anonymous said...

I really love your predictions. I always love your predictions and admire them greatly. Also, I would probably put Emily Mortimer in the Top 5 along with a Nine lady instead of Bates/Weaver. Mortimer should be incredible in her role. And also, I watche dan interview with Mortimer and she says it is called Ashecliffe. ;) Thanks

Anonymous said...

Also, do you think The Tree of Life will be out this year? I'm doubting it. But what are your thoughtys? PLEASE post them quicker :P Thanks

reinard said...

I have the feeling that Kidman might get in for Nine. I'm sure the Academy likes her when she's glamorous, and they indeed do like actors playing actors, even when glamorous, think Blanchett as Hepburn.

She has a duet with Cruz, another song with Cruz and Cotillard and the show's best song. Even though her part might be small, tha hasn't stopped actresses before

Anonymous said...

You might wanna change it saying in original Song "No Musicals This Year" There are 3 original songs in Nine this year :) Also Randy Newman is writing songs for Princess and the Frog, Pixar always have an original song. Hannah Montana has 12 Original Songs I would predict...

The Princess and the Frog

Seeking Amy said...

Good lead choices. I'm also thrilled that Swank is out of your top ten. Did anyone see how awful she was in the Affair of the Necklace? She was also a fish out of water in the Black Dahlia. I don't think it's going to happen, she's no good with period like you said.

I would also like to see Jane Campion work wonders with women again. She pulled off gold with Holly Hunter and Anna Paquin. Kate Winslet and Meg Ryan gave underrated performances in my opinion, so maybe this time she'll get her ladies awards again. The only thing I see against Abbie Cornish (aside if the film is good or not) is hardly anyone is familiar with her work since she didn't take off when people were predicting good stuff for her in the Golden Age.

I would be thrilled if Patricia Clarkson won next year! She already has been snubbed for The Station Agent, Far from Heaven and High Art and I wish she had been nominated for The Station Agent instead of Pieces of April.

Seeing all the Nine women next to each other makes me so excited. If only Anne Hathaway had gotten the Kate Hudson role instead, I want to hear that girl sing some more! Ah well, maybe Kate will show some more of that promise she gave us in Almost Famous.

Karen said...

Nice to see one of my picks in your top 5 (Cornish).

Anonymous said...

I have a feeling that this year will be the return of Geena Davis to the movies! She has a new film called "Accidents Happen," and early word is that she is very very good in her role.

Wouldn't it be amazing if Michelle Pfeiffer and Geena Davis went at it again... 21 years later. The ultimate showdown!

Bernardo said...

Worst decision I've ever made in a contest:

Not having Mulligan in my lineup.

I have no idea of wtf happened to me...:(

Oh well... if Libya Kebede is a MASSIVE surprise this year (her role is definetely baity), only 3 of us will have predicted her :)

Carl said...

Good job, Nathaniel! We agree on Mulligan and Watson, and Cornish was the last one out on my ballot (she just could not knock out Tatou...but it was thisclose.)

All the stars align for Cornish in "Bright Star", and I would have picked her if there were any serious evidence that she is any good as an actress. She may very well be (and shame on me if she is), but I have yet to see it.

Slayton said...

Carolyn Dando has the best supporting character in "The Lovely Bones"!!! put her in immediately!!!! please!!!!


Bernardo... who knows. Hawkins had buzz like Mulligan's last year at this time and she was snubbed at the last minute. Nobody can be locked this early in the year.

Carl... i hear you on Cornish but i just think it's time that Campion returns. And she can do the bio thing with artistry.

anon 8:22 (that musical comment was a leftover text from last year. OOPS. I've removed it. there are deffinitely musicals again)

Marcello Talone said...

i love emily watson, but i don't think she will be nominated for this film. it doesn't look it will get a proper release.

and if nine turns up to be very good, i guess, at least, marion cotillard and nicole kidman will be contenders to best actress, not supporting.

adam k. said...

I wanted to predict Cornish, but honestly, Campion doesn't have a great track record with actually getting women nominated. It really only happened in The Piano, right? I feel like even if Cornish is great - certainly possible - it won't be received well by the mainstream and won't get traction.

Consider how Campion has not scored with such normally-fawned-upon actresses as Kate Winslet, Nicole Kidman, and (to an lesser extent) Meg Ryan. She just doesn't have an "oscary" sensibility.

Also, supporting actually seems much easier to predict than lead this year. Weird. You probably have 3 right again, unless Streep goes lead. I'd predict your top 4 with either Emily Mortimer or Michelle Williams from Shutter Island in the last spot. Though I actually feel like this may be another 2-from-one-film year... happens a lot... with two women from Shutter Island, Nine or something else.

adam k. said...

And I feel eerily safe in saying the supporting oscar will go to either Mo'Nique, Clarkson or Streep. I'd put money on it.

Anonymous said...

I was Three for

Mulligan, Watson and Mirren.

I was thinking that Watson was under the

I think Mulligan will get nominated. Sally didn't have any other films out in 2008. Carey has The Greatest (she got really good reviews), Public Enemies (Small role, but more publicity) and Brothers(I've heard this film was terrible, but who knows).

So the Academy may want to reward her for her good work this year. Melissa Leo did get a nomination and she was a Sundance favorite also.

Tree of Life is coming out in 2010.

I actually think Sidibe may get in also, she did get good reviews and she's the star of the film. I can see the Academy embracing her battered down teen performance. Then that would be two newbies, Mulligan and Sidibe.

Abbie Cornish, I haven't seen her great acting ability yet either :-/
Or Romola Garai and I want to like Romola, but she hasn't impressed me in anything I've seen her in. I seriously thought she was miscast in Atonement.

I think Michelle Williams should be higher than Emily Mortimer. I would put her in the top 5. Emily actually said that her role was really small in an interview on the Reelz Channel.

I honestly think whoever is playing Lindsay, in The Lovely Bones(Susie's sister), should be considered. If you've read the book she has a bigger part than Rachel ( if the screenplay is similar to the book that is). I really didn't like the book much.

I think Cheri will be shut out besides Costume Design. Sorry. I do like Kathy and Michelle.


Daph Bajas said...

How about Renee Zellweger for My One and Only with Kevin Bacon?
I heardd she was good in that.

Jacob Passy said...

I do enjoy your predictions, but I would like to offer one correction. Swank has sort of done period/bipic before: She was the star of HBO's Iron Jawed Angels. And, although I generally dislike her, she played the part well in that film. And a suffragist would be similar to Amelia, right? I think she may be looking at another nomination.

Anonymous said...

Hey Nat,

WHat were your Year in Advance Predictions for the last three years. And do you have a link to that thing you did when your ranked the Best Picture and Best Actress Nominees 2000 - 2007?

That would be awesome. Also, the trailer for Pippa Lee is online. Penn and Arkin look good, but the trailer is crap.


Jacob... actually Swank has done period several times. It's just not very convincing when she does. Some actors are good at it others are better when they stay contemporary. Though before any Swank defenders (are there any?) get mad at me... that's not a qualitative judgment. A lot of actors who are only good at contemporary are still very good actors indeed.

anon -- who knows? I need to restructure that site. I have EVERYTHING but i totally forget where things are ;)

Jacob Passy said...

Also, I love Mo'Nique, so I will be incredibly happen WHEN she's nominated.

Jacob Passy said...

Well, Nate, I think you and I can at least hope that she isn't nominated. I'm really rooting for Pfeiffer.

Anonymous said...

i agree so much with you about Hilary Swank in Amelia

People think shes a shoe in but after finding out the movie is PG (Srsly when was the last time a performance in a PG movie was nominated?) that the movie might be to....tame? and might not give her oscar baity scenes!

Sally Belle said...

I've read The Bright Star's really good, romantic and sad...I think Cornish has a good shot. I also believe Campion will come back strong with the film.

To anonymous/Melissa re: Romola Garai in Atonement. Garai was the third pick for Atonement...the role was offered to Abbie Cornish first! The offer then went to Evan Rachel Wood...both had prior commitments.

and The sister role in Lovely Bones was not a significant part...unless they redid the script.

The buzz on Amelia is not good thus far. I don't think swank will be getting in...but, I didn't think Jolie would this year either, so, what do I know?

Anonymous said...

Never been that impressed by Cornish apart from Candy and I have the feeling if anyone is going to get any love it will be Ben Whoshaw not Cornish.

Good predictions Nate and thank you for putting Romola Garai in the mix, early word from Berlin where they showed a rough cut of 1939 was positive so we have to wait till September to see.

And Julie Christie plays the aunt who clashes with Garai's character in 1939 not the mother.

Adam M. said...

Pfeiffer is out. The reviews needed to be great, and they weren't. Had the "Actress Psychic" contest been held at any other venue, she wouldn't have even made the top 5. On the other hand, leaving Swank out of the top 10 seems a little absurd. She might have to play period, but she's also playing at least somewhat masculine/androgynous. Oscar doesn't ask much more than that from her.

Mulligan feels like a sure-bet at this point among the Oscar-obsessed, but seriously, even the general film enthusiasts haven't heard of 'An Education,' or Mulligan herself, for that matter. She's going to need a very, VERY strong campaign and audience response to sustain.

I also don't see Streep going supporting for 'Julie & Julia.' I mean, her character's name is in the TITLE. That should be enough to warrant a lead campaign regardless of the size of her role.

And no Gabby Sidibe?? 'Precious' or 'Push' or whatever it's going to be called should see a HUMONGOUS resurgence of buzz later in the year, what with the big Oprah seal of approval and all. There was a rumor somewhere along the line that Oprah called the film "the next Color Purple" (meaning a dozen Oscar nominations but a complete shut-out at the ceremony and then a Broadway musical version starring a former American Idol winner 20 years later??). And let's be honest, this is the PERFECT year for a film like 'Precious/Push' to heat up the awards circuit. I'm betting the general feeling will be that it is "finally time" for a film "like this" to be recognized, and the heat will be so impressive that the Academy won't be able to ignore it.

Lastly, don't count out those ladies from 'The Lovely Bones.' I smell a comeback for Ms. Sarandon.

Just my two (or three or four or five) cents. :P

Adrian V. said...

Maybe it's just me, but then I know myself and I have been following the Academy Awards since I was in jr. high and usually I'm pretty correct on my analogies and predictions.
Seeing Emily Watson in that trailer for Within The Whirlwind has stayed with me. It's engrained into brain, and I have went back and watched it several times. And what's this Watson is too indie for the Academy ? She's been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. Oscar/Guilds and Globes are quite familiar with her. She has a ton of things going for her that Oscar likes that could her to earn a nod. 1) it's a true story 2) It's WWII era story, 3) Emily Watson is back in the lead again 4) It's a story of overcoming impossible odds. I'll I have to say is go over to youtube and see it for yourself. If you aren't impressed with what you see than nothing would.
As for the other's, Cheri got mixed reviews at the Berlin FF. I'm not totally confidant in Pfeiffer right mow. And I also think Amy Adams will be going lead for Julie and Julia and she could earn a nod. She is fresh in Oscar's mind. Swank looks like the odds on favorite for a nomination at this point. Zellweger's turn could gain attention since the storyline seems baity. Berry will play a woman with split personalities. Mirren might get a nomination fron one of the three performaces this year that they might for her in because of a year worth of good work. Watson at this time is a dark horse but the more people see that trailer, the more word of mouth will spread and it won't be so unknown anymore. It's really hard to determine so early in the year though.

Jenny said...

I love Michelle Pfieffer and I love that you included her in your lineup but I'm kind of in doubt about that!

I mean Renee Zellwger's My One and Only generated more buzz than Cheri during the festival and she played George Hamilton's mother!

Ben said...

I'd love to see Emily Watson win. Both her Academy Award nominations have featured brilliant performances in brilliant films but she's always been up against strong competition. Lost out to Frances McDormand in 1996 and up against Diane Keaton, Kristen Scott Thomas and Brenda Blethyn. Then in 1998 she was up against Cate Blanchett, Fernanda Montenegro and Meryl Streep and then ended up losing to Gwyneth Paltrow (?!).

As Kelsey has already said, I've been in love with Romola Garai ever since Daniel Deronda, in which she was perfect. I also liked her a lot in I Capture The Castle, Inside I'm Dancing and Angel. Would love to see her break out.

This could be Rachel McAdam's year, I think. The Time Traveler's Wife is a popular book and the adaptation is being scripted by the same guy who adapted The Notebook, which has an awful lot of fans out there (I can't stand it to be honest). She's also got State Of Play and Sherlock Holmes this year so will be in the public eye a bit more.

cal roth said...

Diane Kruger has a very big supporting role in Inglourious Basterds. Watch out.

Jim T said...

Nate, what is next? Picture or actors?


a few things

adam m re: the Pfeiffer thing. I did not write those 262 ballots. How could my love of Pfeiffer have put her on over 50% of the ballots when I didn't write any of them? It's bizarre to claim that this venue is what caused it.

also: as we learned last year with Changeling and with several other titles in several other years... festival reviews do not always equal general consensus reviews and consensus is the only thing that matters in the long run.

If Bette Midler could get in for For the Boys in 1991 and Bening can get in for Being Julia in 2004 and several other people at various times with movies that did not get strong reviews, why not Pfeiffer? If you're a big star you can overcome middling reviews (see also Changeling / The Golden Age) to land a nomination over more well reviewed smaller stuff.

The larger question ... the only question that matters to some extent is "does Pfeiffer want it?" because if she doesn't, there's no way it will happen. You have to campaign hard if there are any drawbacks (like middling reviews)

did i really not have Sidibe on my chart? oops. I mean to have her in the top 20.

adrian v i hate that Whirlwind trailer (though I agree with you that Watson looks like she has a lot to work with in that movie), because like the YouTube mix that people were calling the Savage Grace trailer last year ... it's not a trailer at all but a collection of a lot of scenes from the movie. Now it's only 4 minutes long where the Grace one was 9 minutes but irregardless, It shows WAY too much. Sometimes i think YouTube is going to destroy the movies. People feel like they've seen a movie or are familiar with a performance (you hear it all the time: "i'm not impressed with the acting i saw in that clip") when they see stuff out of context. ARGH. sorry. you touched on a personal pet peeve of mine ;)

i didn't love the acting in the from Cheri and I don't love the trailer but it doesn't mean that the movie or the performances aren't good. It just means that the marketing opted for a light tone and the performances feel odd when you only see them for 90 seconds. Maybe it's not good but who knows.

cal my thing with Inglourious Basterds is that it seems way too out there for AMPAS. I mean they didn't even like Kill Bill's technical elements.


one more thing in regards to Streep and supporting. I get why people are saying LEAD I 100% get it. But what nobody mentions when they feel so confident about this is, is what happens with Amy Adams? Frost/Nixon was an anomaly in this day and age. They don't campaign movies as dual leads anymore... so is the screenplay of Julie & Julia really going to be THAT different than the book that Julie becomes a supporting character? Maybe they did rewrite it entirely. My interview with Amy Adams did seem to contain a lot of "no they changed that from the book..."

I'm not saying it couldn't happen but really JULIE is 100% the lead of the book.

Runs Like A Gay said...

Some exciting stats about the collective actress psychic vs. Nat's own predictions.

5 individual balloters have the same predictions as the collective as a whole.

10 of us, including myself (no surprise), have no overlap.

51% have 3 or more in common with the collective.

Compared to Nat no-one is in complete agreement, although 2 (Billybil and JoFo) have 4 in common.

30 people (not including myself this time) have no overlap with Nathaniel.

51% have only 1 or no nominees overlapping with Nat.

Nathaniel and the collective agree on 2 picks, historically both groups get 2 right. Are these the same 2?

From all of this we can deduce that as a readership we tend to go our own way and not blindly follow the editor (which seems odd and also rather unfair, but that's new media for you). So the fact that Michelle appears on both must be pure coincidence.

I realise that no-one else finds these stats in any way interesting. The curse of having a Maths degree.

Jim T said...

Isn't it weird that although we are Nate's fans our top 10 has only 3 in common with his? I guess that shows how much chaotic the race is right now. In January we'll probably agree on almost all 5 possible nominees.

Does anyone else think that this year the best actor race will be more exiting than the best actress?
DDL, Freeman, DiCaprio...

Anonymous said...

Sally: totally jealous you've read the Bright Star script! But I'm starting to be more confident in my Cornish pick, thanks. ;)

I just wish now that I predicted Mulligan. Darnit.


runs... i always find stats interesting but i don't understand them really. and i don't know how you can look at that chart and figure out who lines up! that would take hours

but y'all didn't know what my nominee predictions were (i do that on purpose) so it can't really reflect what you think of what I think. except maybe indirectly. I DID talk about Chéri a lot, didn't I?

Jim T ... actors are next. or maybe costumes? probably actors cuz i'm 1/3rd done with that. I do have a major omission there that i'm pretty confident about ;)

Runs Like A Gay said...

It's just a matter of a simple union query on SQL - barely 5 lines of code - to work out who lines up with who. I'm a geek, what can I say.

I even enjoy toting up the points (ooh tables, columns, numerical analysis I'm all tingly). For instance right now Carol Lin leads with 2 points (Duplicity has opened and passed $27m). I'd even volunteer to keep track of the scores if you trusted me and kept me up to date with the general media section - no SNL or Entertainment Weekly in the UK.

In terms of getting them the same as you we don't know who you're going to nominate but we do know who you like - over the last year you've mentioned Mirren loads, picked Bright Star high on your most anticipated movies and who doesn't know about your Pfandom?

(By the way nobody has more than 2 in common with me, so you're much closer to the consensus than I am.)

logan said...

I'm sorry but the European reviews I'm reading right now (the film is opening this week) are strong enough when it comes to Pfeiffer. Some have been nominated with far less stellar reviews.

She just needs a good campaign and she's in. They loved her, they love a comeback, she just have to prove them that she wants it.

And were Being Julia and Blue Sky masterpieces ? NO

lukeyboy said...

Do Emily Blunt and Miranda Richardson of 'The Young Victoria' not stand a chance at all in the leading and supporting categories, respectively? I've seen the film (released in the UK at the beginning of March), and they both turn in very good performances. Especially Richardson who pretty much steals all of her scenes.

YH said...

Right now, I feel like going with these picks:


Penélope Cruz, "Broken Embraces"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Michelle Pfeiffer, "Cheri"
Hilary Swank, "Amelia"
Emily Watson, "Within the Whirlwind"


Kathy Bates, "Cheri"
Penélope Cruz, "Nine"
Judi Dench, "Nine"
Mo'Nique, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

Guy Lodge said...

Lukeyboy: I must disagree. I thought Blunt was a complete write-off (awards-wise) after seeing "The Young Victoria." She doesn't disgrace herself by any means, but the role is so blandly developed, with no real dramatic arc -- I can't see the performance (or the film) making any impact on the voters. And I thought Richardson was sleepwalking, but that's me.

Anonymous said...

Really Sally,

Well, Maybe I'll like the movie better, the main reason that I didn't like the book was because I couldn't stand the sister. It seemed like most of the second half was about her.


Runs Like A Gay said...

Ooh, 26 people have no chance of being a unique winner (exactly the same combination as another entry).

Must get back to work....

Runs Like A Gay said...

For the record I have done something else in between the stats related comments, it's just that this is more interesting than comparing the inspection results for Nursing Homes...



adam k. said...

What happens to Amy Adams in Julie & Julia is what happened to Anne Hathaway in The Devil Wears Prada. This does not sound like a film that the academy will embrace en masse. What about Adams' role is award worthy? This sounds strictly like an "OMGMerylStreepISJuliaChild" kind of thing. And if that's the case, they'll get all the mileage they can from it (i.e. LEAD if it's at all defensible).

That said, saying she's lead cause she's in the title is a silly argument. Another similarly titled film, Julia (1977), debunks that completely. Ask Vanessa Redgrave how that lead campaign worked out.

So yeah, we'll just have to wait and see on Streep. I'm just saying, I don't think getting in Adams' way will be a big consideration. Getting in her OWN way, however...

Lisa said...

I would rather stick my head in a bucket of eels than see Mo'Nique win over Meryl..

Anonymous said...

Was Vanessa Redgrave seriously trying to pull off a lead nomination for her ten minutes in "Julia"? Over Jane Fonda? Or with her? Let me get my Seth and Amy "Really?" voice out now.

And if Mo'Nique delivers the best performance of the year over Queen Meryl, then more power to Mo'Nique. The Oscar isn't for best pedigree.

Jim T said...

Nate, your argument for Romola Garai is weak. I have a strong one for Saoirse Ronan. She grew up to be Redgrave and now she doesn'you t grow up at all! :p

Adam K, you know how Redgrave campaigned in 1977? Has your brain any room left for not Oscar related data? :p


Jim T you funny. so true about Saoirse. The only drawback for me is two nomination by the age of 15. I mean, even JODIE FOSTER couldn't do that ;) She'd certainly be the youngest two-time nominee ever. though i don't know who holds the record really. Perhaps it's Kate Winslet with 2 by the age of 22.

adam k. said...

OK, people are totally missing the point of my Redgrave comment.

First of all, it's really not that hard to go on IMDB and see that she won the supporting actress oscar for Julia that year.

Second, no I was not insinuating that she ran a lead campaign. That remark was pure snark. It was a supporting role, she campaigned it as a supporting role, and it won the oscar as a supporting role. Even though it was the title character.

The whole point was that NO, Meryl does not have an automatic excuse/desire to go lead just because the film is called Julie & Julia.

I guess I could've worded the whole thing better.

adam k. said...

And just to weaken my argument that my my brain is NOT merely a bucket of oscar-related data:

Yes Nat, I'm pretty sure Winslet is the record holder (youngest to 2, youngest to 3, youngest to 4, and so on). As I recall, there was some chatter a few years back about Keira possibly breaking her record by a few months, had she been nommed for Atonement. But alas, she was not.

I really need to get off the internet...

Anonymous said...


Better start gathering eels.

Minorities ( especially women) are rarely given juicy roles. I bet there a many Black, Asian and Latino women that can act Meryl under a rug, but unfortunately Hollywood doesn't cast them, so we don't get to see their brilliance.

So go Mo'Nique, I don't see Meryl getting a nomination at all actually.

adelutza said...

:-) This reminds me of what Lilian Gish said after failing to receive a best actress nomination for The Whales of August: " Oh, well. At least I won't have to lose to Cher."

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Minority actresses.

Supermodel Liya Kedebe is starring in Desert Flower with Sally Hawkins and it is definitely Oscar bait. It is supposed to be released this Fall.

Photos of her on set.

Anonymous said...

I knew that Vanessa Redgrave won the damn Oscar for "Julia." It was your trite as hell attempts at "snark" that was the problem ADAM K. For a "Prada" situation to happen, I'd say the film would need to be a big hit or have a big studio push in a zeitgeist-y kind of way for Meryl to go lead for that. I don't see Amy Adams getting into lead, but from what I've read, Meryl's screentime is limited in "Julie & Julia." I think the easier and more appropriate nod would be supporting. But I'm fully aware that anything's possible, and just b/c she's in the title, an automatic lead bid isn't necessarily at play.

Unknown said...

having seen "cheri" at the berlin film festival, i am really not sure about michelle... she's good and has one or two great scenes, but the movie in general is rather disappointing... i don't see a lot of buzz happening there (unlike, e.g., for mulligan, who is phenomenal in a very sweet movie. watch out for alfred molina, btw). and kathy bates' role is tiny (though very funny)...

as for "pippa lee", which i also saw in berlin - nice movie, but nothing oscar-y about it. and wright-penn doesn't have any wow-moments!

Anonymous said...

Keira should have been nominated!

Wayne B. said...

kudos on the Emily Watson pick, your supporting actress lineup looks highly probable

annie said...

@ Patrick

Again, for the 1812319 times, did "Blue Sky", "Passion Fish" or "Being Julia" won raves ? No.

If she wants to get in, she will. She just has to get ouf of her rabbit hole (uh oh) and campaign.

bubba said...

I'm also intrigued by Geena Davis' onscreen comeback in Accidents Happen. Do not yet know whether her role is meaty, but preliminary buzz seems to suggest she is dazzling, as always.

Zak said...

Two Things...

1. If Swank gets Oscar number 3 before Meryl Streep OR MoNique wins an Oscar over Meryl Streep I'm pretty sure there will be riots in Hollywood, and I'll be leading the pack.

2. Someone commented that they knew of minority actresses that could "act Meryl Streep under the rug"... let me just say I like to see that. I personally don't think there is anyone alive that could act the way that woman does, not even close.

other than that, I like your predix Nate! I think streep will go supporting, unless we have a TDWP repeat from 2006 when she stole the show from Hathaway.

we shall see. :-)

Anonymous said...

Um Zak,

Have you seen Doubt? Viola Davis already did.

I think that if MoNique and or Hilary gives awesome performances and Meryl gives a shitty one ( highly likely see Doubt). Then I would rather they win. Performance over Pedigree and that's the way it should be.


Anonymous said...

Some members on here are a part of the KKK Clan ( I'm serious I clicked on someone's blog and it was all about hating minorities disgusting) and so that's where the MoNique hate is coming from. She got serious raves from Sundance and won an acting award. Now I havenb't seen the film, but if she's as good as everyone says then you have NO reason to riot unless you are a KKK member.

adelutza said...

Mo'Nique is awesome and the film makes you shiver, it's so good. But I think that what people were saying here is that compared to Meryl or other actresses that worked for 20+ years and haven't really been recognized for their work (not Meryl case thou), overall she doesn't deserve a nomination.
And in any case, we are not handing out any awards here, we're just talking...

palle said...

Um Melissa, Streep did NOT give a "shitty" performance in Doubt, she was great. Viola Davis were also outstanding and I agree that she owned her scene even though sharing it with Streep, they were both outstanding however.

Most actresses can deliver a performance of Streep´s caliber once in a lifetime but Streep is able to deliver those "showstoppers" on a regular basis. There is noone touching her in my opinion and I´m sure she´ll get nominated for Julie and Julia. Early word is great on her performance.

Sean said...

Having Saoirse Ronan at 19 is pretty shocking. I've read the script and her role is amazing EASILY the lead character. And plus...out of all the best actress candidates her movie has by far the best chance at being nominated or winning best picture. And if that happens...usually the lead character is a shoe-in for a nomination. But she's an unbelievably good young actress and is capable of giving a performance thats worthy on its own.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Palle, I don't consider Streep this God that most of you consider her to be. IMO most of her performances (lately) are overrated and her performance in Doubt was so over-the-top, it was beyond SHITTY.

adelutza- give her a lifetime achievement award and call it a day. Performance>>>Pedigree


Walter L. Hollmann said...

Is it me, or are Mo'Nique and Kathy Bates in the same pose? Disapproval - the great equalizer.

Anonymous said...

GO Mo'Nique!

If you're mad then kick rocks.

That is all!


Fernando Moss said...

In my OWN PERSONAL OPINION these actresses have outshined Meryl:

-Viola Davis in Doubt
-Julie Walters in Mamma Mia!
-Renee Zellweger in One True Thing
-Diane Keaton in Marvins Room (altough I think both were bad, Diane was a bit less bad).
-Glenn Close in The House of the Spirits
-Goldie Hawn in Death Becomes Her
-Shirley MacLaine in Postcards from the Edge (altouhg both were MARVELOUS -I would have give each an Oscar that year)
-Cher in Silkwood (again, both were great)
-Jane Alexander in Kramer vs. Kramer

Again... Is just MY opinion. And again... I love Meryl... I just think she's a bit overrated.


sean i actually loved the book THE LOVELY BONES and agree that the role is pretty special. But again. We'd be talking about 2 oscar nominations by the age of 15? I find that sort hard to fathom... but maybe she could do it.

we'll see.

Adam M. said...

Nat --

First of all, I still have a mondo crush on you, so the fact that you addressed me directly has certainly sent my heart a'flutterin' :P

What I meant by saying that Pfeiffer wouldn't have been in the top 5 had the "Actress Psychic" contest been held elsewhere... okay that sentence is already too long... so I'm going to stop it. What I meant was that your very evident enthusiasm for the film and for Pfeiffer obviously swayed the opinions of your dearly devoted readers. Where do we as readers gather information to form our own predictions but from sites and blogs such as your own? Even though you didn't technically release your first predictions until after the contest, we all knew who your top pick was well before then. You, Sir, have become so regarded that you are able to generate buzz yourself, particularly amongst your followers-- the ones who entered the contest. And for this we bow down to thee!

*bows down*

But I could be wrong.

When I cited a lack of great reviews, I meant for Pfeiffer's performance itself, not for the entire film-- though the middling reviews that the film received further weaken her chances for sure. The Bening/Jolie argument doesn't hold up for me either. Even though their respective films were met with generally unenthusiastic responses, no one denied the power of their performances. As for Cheri, most of what I've read thought Pfeiffer was "meh," and even sidelined by Kathy Bates. What's more, Bening and Jolie were still fresh on Oscar's mind, with a very impressive showing in "American Beauty" for the former, and a fairly widely-agreed-upon snub for the latter in "A Mighty Heart." Pfeiffer hasn't seen any Oscar glory for 15 years, and the last time she was even close to being in Oscar's crosshairs was 6 years ago with "White Oldeander," and even then she really only had momentum from a SAG nom.

Also just noticed... no mention of Rachel Weisz for "Agora." If you say so.

Jim T said...

I just found out there will be a movie called From Time to Time and it seems like an interesting project. Maybe Dame Maggie Smith has a chance?

Oh, I love making it even more complicated than it is!

Anonymous said...

Meryl... I just think she's a bit overrated.

You are not the only one who thinks like that. Sometimes I can't stand her overacting.

Sean said...

@Nathaniel...i get what you're saying. I just thought 19th was too low. I just think the combination of her giving a worthy performance and Lovely Bones getting a Best Pic nod is enough to stop the "age" snub. This is hypothetical of course, Bones might disappoint...but i think Jackson is too good to fail. But i think it definately helps her that out of all the "Heavy" Best Picture contenders...Lovely Bones is the only one w/ a female it may be impossible to ignore/snub her.

Adrian V. said...

Ronan is seriously going to have to pull off a very special performance to achieve a leading actress nomination at age 15. Plus, it would be back to back years as well. Oscar might think that she needs to earn more time and more films under her belt.
Also, I read the Julie and Julia script and Amy Adams is the lead. Streep will be shown in flashbacks. Amy's Julie IS the movie. But the Oscar's have such a boner over every little thing Meryl does it's like they automatically nominate her if she is only half way decent. Her Julia Child is the secondary character. The correct thing to do if she does get a nomination is for supporting.

Paul Outlaw said...

Not quite identical to my "actress psychic" predictions, but...

Helen Mirren, The Tempest
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Sophie Okonedo, Skin
Kristin Scott Thomas, Partir
Hilary Swank, Amelia (if I can't have Mortimer, I'm going to the other extreme, even though Watson is more likely)

- four previous nominees
- two previous winners
- one of last year's "snubs"
- two historical (real) characters
- one literary/stage character
- one in a foreign language
- four Brits

Crazy, I know...

Lance said...

Just b/c she's THE MERYL STREEP doesn't mean that she's automatically supposed to win Oscars when/if there's superior competition involved. Whoever said that this wasn't a damn pedigree contest was right on the money. Thanks for saying it, since there are some here that obviously need shit like that spelled out for them.

DH said...

To whomever is dissing Mo'Nique, maybe you should see the performances before making your decision. In this Hollywood era its tough for any minority actor/actress to get any type of attention. If she's already garnering Oscar buzz now, then is must be a really powerful performance.

Not to diss Meryl Streep or anything because I think she is a goddess, but I feel like she gets Oscar talk just for being Meryl Streep. She doesn't even have to give an overwhelming performance to be put in the mix.

palle said...

Well to the Streep doubters (hi hi) out there, we´ll just have to agree on disagreeing. I thought she gave a powerful and spellbinding performance in Doubt. I believe she got the oscarnomination + the criticsawards she won for it for her performance and not like some of you are implying because of being Meryl Streep.

I agree she was a bit over the top but see I think it suited the film. It was all in the script, Aloysious WAS over the top. Streep´s nun was totally overbearing. So totally rigid and strict it was funny. Just look at some of her lines in the screenplay! That was the genius of Streep´s performance, she managed to make the character both hilarious yet scary. In a way Aloysious was really dangerous (depending on how you see it) and Streep embodied that.

Well we can´t all agree on the godess Streep, I realize that but I also think that some slag her off because of the fact that she´s gotten so accomplished and has won so many awards and so on. She is widely seen as the greatest working actress and one of the best ever. Such a position is bound to create different opinions.


palle you're totally right. "Default" praise (for performers like Streep or Blanchett) always has its dark mirror "overrated!" claims. The truth of the quality is probably somewhere inbetween those poles but it varies (depending on the performance) ... but reputation affects reaction in both ways.

denzel agreed. I don't know why people are acting so surprised about Mo'Nique... haven't we seen that she's talented before? Maybe not specifically "Oscar Bait" talent, but "Oscar Bait" talent is highly overrated... it just means the person is good at heavy drama or period work.

Dave said...

Well, it's not like Mo'Nique's really shown us the depths of her acting abilities in her stirring turns in "The Parkers," "Phat Girlz", or "Charm School." But I've seen a lot of her comedy routines, and bitch is fierce. I'm not surprised that the promise is there. And if she can make it all the way to the Oscars for "Precious", then more power to her. It shouldn't always be about the named actors getting recognized all of the time. It's a big world out there.

Logan D said...

I Believe that this year supporting race will be like in 1965, with 3 actresses nominated from the same film. So, I see three Nine ladies nominated, Judi Dench, Penélope Cruz and Marion Cotillard. The other two nominations are between Mo'Nique for Precious, Michelle Williams for Shutter Island (I readed the book and she is Oscar meat, don't understand why Mortimer is higher when her character has only one scene of 2-3 minutes) and Patricia Clarkson.

Kate said...

If Mo'Nique gets nominated, I think I may commit suicide.

Anonymous said...

We'll try to find a way to cope with such a huge loss there, Katey.

DH said...

To those who say they haven't seen anything "Oscar bait" worthy of Mo'Nique, think about it, did you really see anything "Oscar bait" worthy of Jamie Foxx before 2004.

Yeah, she did "The Parkers" and "Phat Girlz" but often times minorities and comedians have a hard time getting serious roles to showcase their talent. They have to make money and get their career going somehow. So they do Hollywood bullshit until someone gives them a chance to truly shine.

And on the other end, have you ever seen a project of Mo'Nique's where she fails miserably. She always brings it, no mater what the part.

Karen said...

I have a feeling that Mo'Nique will be in the Oscar run for her role in Precious. That would be a total 180 for her career.

I still have to look through the long list and figure out my what films my favorites are in this year and choose my top hopefuls.

Carl said...

Really, folks, I think that any actress who doesn't have a track record on the big screen needs to prove she has the chops to contend before anyone gets hot and bothered about omitting the actress from ballots. In my case, Mo'Nique didn't make my ballot for the same reason Abbie Cornish didn't - I haven't seen her give an Oscar-worthy performance in a movie, and there are lots of performers this year who have in the past (or who have received undiluted raves, ala Mulligan).

Anonymous said...

So then you're simply ignorant of the praise and award recognition that Mo'Nique has already received from Sundance then? Or that doesn't qualify b/c she would have needed to have had ten "Oscar-worthy" films to her credit before she would have the privilege to grace one of your prediction ballots? Come on now.

Carl said...

Anon 02:28:

Yo're bad. I typed Mo'Nique when actually thinking of Gabby Sidibe. Had the predictions been for Supporting Actress, I would have included Mo'Noqiue - for the reasons we both described.

Anonymous said...

All american actresses in the supporting category... Not happenned since '91.

Unknown said...

Yes, "Passion Fish" and "Being Julia" won raves - for the actresses. "Cheri" did not and will not, so Michelle will have a hard time to get out of the rabbit hole...


Patrick -- i wouldn't be so confident about the "will not" part of your equation just yet. MANY films and performances have received different types of reviews once they've left the festival world and hit the mainstream press. In fact, critical tide shifts on something just about every single year.

I'm pretty sure Pfeiffer will pick up more raves the wider Chéri goes. Festivals are a unique critical atmosphere.

Anonymous said...

Ok. I have to write in english, so I hope you could understand me ....
As you know (?)"Chéri" is yet released in France.
And (Nathaniel don't hate me) I'm note sure at all the Pfeiffer's performance screams "oscar". She is absoluty right and nobody could play the role as she does. I mean, she don't have to play such role. She is. She's smart, she's beautiful (and very well photographied and dressed)and she has a certain "Norma Shearer quality" here which is precious : Half Diva (too much "Sex and the city attitude" may be), half very sensitive and actualy moving. But if she have a lot of time on screen she has not a lot of "space" to express something. I'm not sure to be clear, forgive-me. It's a quite good performance. But, in my advice, the role (as it is built in that movie) is not very "oscarisable" : for exemple she has "her" big final scene, but the realisation gaves a distance, interesting (it's a "parti pris" in the entire movie)but prejudiciable (you say that in english ?) for the actress.
However the film is gorgeous to see (as Pfeiffer herself), very entertaining and with a superb score by Desplat (too present, too symphonic, but superb.)

But it's simply my advice.