Tuesday, April 07, 2009

2009 Oscar Predictions, The Costumes. The Screenplays.

Chapeaus, Gowns and Suits. Oh my!

Three time Oscar winner Milena Canonero doing The Wolf Man duty. Black is the new Black.

Oscar's technical branches are more similar to the acting branch than most people realize. The costuming branch is no exception. They have their pets who can't thread a needle without getting nominated, and other designers who they strangely ignore repeatedly despite fine work. And like Oscar's acting branch they have "hooks" that they fall for with great regularity. Certain time periods are baitier than others and so forth. Iconic gowns help but are no guarantor. And like the acting branch, they tend to prefer realism and authenticity to leaps of imagination and genre stylization. Most of the time anyway... they don't have quite as many genre prejudices.

Best COSTUME DESIGN Predictions feature the usual suspects: Sandy Powell, Colleen Atwood and Milena Canonero. Between them they have 7 Oscars (gasp). They can't be stopped! Well, actually I'm predicting a Powell snub this year. But I ♥ Sandy Powell truly, madly deeply. My love can't be stopped.

Also posted: Predictions in Original and Adapted Screenplay.


Devin D said...

Don't forget Where the Wild Things Are (Dave Eggers & Spike Jonze) and The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach) in the Best Adapted Screenplay category.

cal roth said...

Anna B. Sheppard + WWII = Oscar. You may not be "feeling" Inglourious Basterds, but I see this nom as a semi-lock to win, even if the movie doesn't get much recognition.

Alex Constantin said...

I would replace Bright and Agora with Young Victoria and, especially, The Tempest. They allow both, so Sandy rules.

also, Taymor loves her costumes; her previous 3 films got Oscar noms for it.

Alex Constantin said...

I have COMPLETELY different predictions for Original Screenplay!

I feel quite confident about Up, Biutiful and even Almodovar. I also have a feeling for My Own Love Song and, standing by it, Nancy Meyers.

I thought that from the trailer Away We Go looked either Juno wannabe or something not quite original in general.

on ADAPTED, I agree with Shutter and Lovely Bones. I'd also predict Where the Wild Things Are, Green Zone (Helgeland it writing) and why not NINE (Anthony Minghella is one of the co-writers)!

Dean said...

No Avatar for original screenplay? I have a feeling the Academy is going to want to make love to James Cameron in every way possible after being gone so long.

Anonymous said...

cal roth, what makes you so incredibly sure Inglorious Basterds will do so well? Remember, Kill Bill was entirely snubbed despited very flashy (and brilliant) techs - not even Editing or Sound! Even if this is about WWII it still seems unlike something they'll embrace and predicting it to not get in anywhere is not unreasonable at all IMO.

Anonymous said...

A number of people on IMDB said the Love Ranch script was really horrible. Just FYI. :)

I'm a total sucker for the costume category as well (it is my favorite technicals category), and your predictions seem spot on.


Alex Constantin said...

What if LOVE RANCH goes str8 to television?
does it have a release date?!

Anonymous said...

another Oscar for Atwood

Anonymous said...

An Education can easily be pushed Original, much lke Milk. Also, I think you're underestimating Where the Wild Things Are. It could get into Costumes, and it could have a good chance of getting into Screenpla, Pic and Director too! They love Spike Jonze. ALso, The Tempest is a good bet! I think you should put that up there instead of Love Ranch. I'm also loving the Original Screenplay prediction, but I'd replace A Serious Man/Away We Go/Whatever Works/Love Ranch to An Education and Los ABrazos Rotos. You love Almodovar don't you?

Victor S said...

I would bet against a Julie Taymor movie in the costume design categorie: every single one of her movies got a Costume Design nomination.
Its doesnt matter the designer - Cannonero, Weiss or Wolski - Julie Taymor as a director = costume design nomination!!!!

Towelie said...

Nat, don't you think "This Side of the Truth" has, at least, a small chance on the original screenplay category?

Karen said...

I want a superb breakout screenplay to emerge this year. Especially one from a newbie. Kind of like Jenny Lumet's "Rachel Getting Married" from last year.

Bernardo said...

1. Nine
2. Chéri
3. The Wolf Man
4. Public Enemies
5. The Tempest
6. Sherlock Holmes
7. The Young Victoria
8. Coco avant Chanel
9. Agora
10. Amelia

1. Away we go (!)
2. Up
3. Whatever works
4. The Boat that Rocked
5. A Serious Man
6. Broken Embraces
7. Inglorious Basterds
8. Biutiful
9. Bright Star
10. Love Ranch

1. The Human Factor (!)
2. Taking Woodstock (!)
3. An Education
4. Shutter Island (!)
5. The Lovely Bones
6. Amelia
7. Precious
8. Nine
9. Where the Wild things are
10. Up in the Air

(!) Marks my BP nominees... I still haven't chosen the 5th...

Murtada said...

You seem really taken by The Last Station. 3 main nominations so far!! Why is that? Nothing in Michael Hoffman's resume suggests that this could anything more than mediocre. And he has worked with good actors and none got close to being nominated.


Murtada -- i actually just have it for two nominations (acting)

Towelie -- i don't know this "This Side of the Truth". will have to do more research.

Victor S -- the reason i've left Tempest out of costume design (and actress, etc...) is that I'm betting it gets postponed. Sometimes always does and Taymor isn't fast.

anon 5:52 -- I do love Almodóvar yes. My favorite living filmmaker. But I try not to let that affect my predictions.

alex -- it might. something always ends up going to TV.

cal -- re: anna b sheppard. I'm not convinced that the costumed branch loves Sheppard or that she's an awards magnet. She specializes in WWII but she's never won. And even the EMMYs ignored her when they nominated Band of Brothers for everything else.

Julopoer said...

I think you should consider BROKEN EMBRACES for costumes. It's a wonderful set of costumes.

Paul Outlaw said...

If The Tempest gets postponed, I am done, actress-psychically speaking...

Anonymous said...

I wouldnt count Agora out, there are way to many period flicks for costme noms this year so en epic like Agora cannot be overlooked.

Morgan said...

What about "This Side of the Truth" in Original Screenplay. It's Ricky Gervais with a September release date.

Guy Lodge said...

Anonymous 5.52: "An Education can easily be pushed Original, much like Milk."

Well, no, it can't.

"An Education" is based on a previously published work. "Milk" was not. Simple as that.


anon 1:05... but i predicted it! i'm confused.

Runs Like A Gay said...

Look at that - only 1 set of costumes from a film set within plus or minus 30 years from now (when is A Serious Man set).

I think you know the costume branch too well, Nat.

cal roth said...

But this is Sheppard + WWII + movie references... She'll have a lot to do, specially in the German studio movie inside the movie.

Kill Bill flopped with Oscars because they always were going to see it as a fight movie. The Part I is all about it, with that animes and blood. They wouldn't touch it, and if they didn't touch the part I, the case was closed for part II.

Tarantino is not easy to sell, but if the studio pushes the right buttons, IB can go very very far when the race begins. I just can\t think Richardson not getting nominated when the movie has a B6W nouvelle vague segment (way more highbrow than kung fu)! IB is supposed to be referential, but it's about movies and themes AMPAS is close, like Holocaust. It's all about the marketing.

cal roth said...

oh, the typos. sorry again.

Anyway, I predict for IB

Picture, Diretor, Actress (Melanie Laurent), Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Make-up, and Art Direction. It can win Costumes, Art Direction and maybe Actress.

My other wild card is Public Enemies sweeping PIC, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and the rest.

Anonymous said...

I there any positive word on Inglorious Bastards at all? The trailer was horrible, and if the Academy didn't bite Kill Bill, what make you think they'll bite this?


Unknown said...

I really wish that "In a Dream" would have been nominated for an oscar last year instead of just nominated for one. I hope next years nominees are as good as it.

Andrew K. said...

The costume predictions seem plausible, but I have a feeling that if any of these films tank they won't be nominated here. Take The Other Boleyn Girl for example, lush costumes by Ms. Powell - horrible reviews - and no costume design nod. Yes, even the technical branches of the Oscars are prejudiced. The irony. In relation the supporting actress category, you said you're worried about two Woody Allen actresses getting traction in consecutive years. Remember Annie Hall - Diane Keaton won (77) then Maureen Stapleton and Geraldine Page were both nominated for Interiors(78) and then Diane Wiest won for Bullets Over Broadway (94) and Mira Sorvino won for Mighty Aphrodite (95). And if you count this Hannah & Her Sisters Diane Wiest (and Michael Caine) won in 86 but in 85 Mia Farrow was heavily buzzed for The Purple Rose of Cairo!

Wooh. That was a lot of writing. I'm suffering from some intense verbal diarrhea. Forgive me.

Unknown said...

I'd keep an eye on Alejandro Amenábar's Agora in this cathegory and art direction. Peplum sells.


Encore... i think the costume branch is only recently this way. Not too long ago at all they were still nominating tthings like THE AFFAIR OF THE NECKLACE which was NOT well received by any stretch of the imagination... so maybe the past few years have been a bit flukish and they'll go back to just nominating costumes they think are great --which is what they should be doing, period. It's what all the tech categories should be doing. Best Picture is a different prize fer chrissakes ;)

JoJo the Clown said...

Zooey Deschanel and Joseph Gordon-Levitt were in your predictions (there werent even in the Possibilities list)and now(500) Days of Summer cant even make it in the original screenplay predicts =[

ive had a couple friends that saw it at a festival and raved about it!!


JoJo... i'm excited to see the movie but it seems like a quirkie indie romantic comedy type thing and that genre is definitely not Oscary. Juno being a sort of exception to the rule...

Guy Lodge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Guy Lodge said...

Encore and Nat: Aren't we forgetting that the universally disliked "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" actually won the category only last year? "The Duchess," "Australia" and "Across the Universe" weren't exactly critics' darlings either.

I think they've been VERY focused on the costumes in isolation lately, going on the failsafe "most = best" principle.