Thursday, June 12, 2008

His & Hers Oscar Prophesies

A brief history of the Oscared 'Aughts: Russell Crowe, Denzel Washington, Adrien Brody, Sean Penn, Jamie Foxx, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Forest Whitaker, Daniel Day-Lewis... and ????? Who will it be nowww--oowww Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, no comment, Reese Witherspoon, Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard... and ????? Who will it be nowwww. eeeya--aaahhh. Doo. doo.

Are you singing a new prediction tune or do you still feel like it's going to be, say, Meryl Streep (Doubt) and Sean Penn (Milk) for the coveted Lead Acting Oscars this year? Or maybe you're drinking Oliver Stone's comeback Kool-Aid for a bio featuring his & hers statues for Josh Brolin and Elizabeth Banks as the current occupants of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (pictured left). I'm just asking... pipe down out there. Or type away in the comments

Best Actress Predictions ~ I'm still predicting that Kate Winslet gets the snub on account of....well, I... you see... um... on account of I'm deranged? I'm seeing: Streep, Pfeiffer, Hawkins, Jolie and Barrymore. For now.

Best Actor Predictions ~ I'm ignoring the Josh Brolin thing (who wants any more of George dub-ya? Not I. Won't people including voting members be anxious to bid this era adios?) assuming good ol' "Llewelyn Moss" will be in contention for the actual supporting actor statue instead, what with that No Country style momentum providing free new campaign fuel. Where was I? Oh yes, best actor. I'm seeing: Del Toro, Langella, Mortensen, Penn and Pitt. The last might be wishful thinking but I think it's time that the Academy noticed our Brad again. He's only got one honor from them and he's provided a helluva lot of entertainment over the years.

Who are your 5 lucky boys and girls ... and why?
*

45 comments:

mrripley said...

ok nat i don't get no winslet in support yet you say in actress they can honour her their,so where is her nom coming fom i can see her being everywhere come awards time and feel bafta will give her the trophy,i think you are foolish not to have her in actress as we know rr is def out december.

NATHANIEL R said...

my theory on both cate blanchett and kate winslet is that it's impossible that they both get nominated every year.

nobody in the history of the movies has ever done that.

it's like when Renee was popular with the academy. all the oscar groupies were saying she's get 5 more nominations and win another...

it doesn't really happen like that.

blanchett and winslet are both in the top 25 EVER already (or thereabouts... don't have my charts handy) ---eventually both will have a year off.

plus i like to use my imagination when predicting ;) and look for less usual suspects sometimes.

the oscarlineup never looks like
all five slots filled with oscar's favorite performances

SORRY FOR BLABBERING

;)

Anonymous said...

My predictions:

Best Actor:
1. Viggo Mortensen, The Road: He's a hot smoking, talented and charismatic actor in his 50s. Baity role...
2. Brad Pitt, The CCOBB: Apart for his status quo, he's a good actor and he's been overdue for a long time especially for Snatch
3. Benicio Del Toro, Che: Cannes Winner is almost always good and he's a mosnter in acting terms, but how long is the film? We'll see two? Del Toro is the only real opcion to the film?
4. Sean Penn, Milk: He's a respected actor in Hollywood and a little comeback is very possible
5. Leonardo DiCaprio: Interesting dilema for these facts:
-Be careful about Revolutionary Road, we know how happen to the first Oscar faves (Atonement, Dreamgirls, Memoirs of a geisha, Sweeney Todd, Alexander)
-Another 2006 surprise?
-He's snubbed instead Winslet once
Alt: Liam Neeson, The Other Man: Richard Eyre always get the attention and he's a long overdue actor

Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, Doubt: The american quen of acting is back
2. Angelina Jolie: Post Cannes effect and star factor. Plus: Clint Eastwood film...
3. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky: Berlin Winner in Leigh film. Maybe her role is too comedy but with critics love she could easily get a nomination
4. Julianne Moore: One of the two overdues actresses in this year. YES, her two films isn't very well with the critics but it's not necessary an obstacle, especialy in actress categories races (Jessica Lange, Barbara Hershey, Angelina Jolie, Diane Lane, Cate Blanchett) and she has from good to greta reviews for her performances in Savage Garce and Blindness. I choose Blindness
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri: Frears has good luck with women and she coulkd have a huge comeback after 1992
Alt: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria: Young, talented and beautiful actress, more talented than Keira Knightley in a big Scorsese production

Robert said...

Hmmm. I can really feel the no Winslet/no Julianne vibe for the first time. Streep, Jolie, and even la Pfeiffer seem like decent bets.

Langella and Penn I can see for actor. Del Toro is all murked up in that movie's release strategy. Mortensen is such an anti-star, that it seemed unlikely for him to be recognized last year, let alone 2 in a row. And as for Pitt, I called it "his year about time" for Babel. I wont be doing that again this year.

so, continuing this long ass post, I say:

ACTOR
Penn
Langella
DiCaprio
Neeson
P.S. Hoffman

Neeson, now there's a man who's overdue, and in a Richard Eyre pic no less. And yeah the Hoffman fatigue should be setting in... but doesn't he seem like the type of guy who should have more noms than he does? Only 2 (and last years a joke)

ACTRESS
Streep
Jolie
Pfeiffer
Barrymore
Winslet

They set it up for the Winslet win... finally.

Robert said...

^^^totally contradicted myself with the Winslet thing.... oh well. It's eary enough in the year for that.

Anonymous said...

Meryl looks like Eugevenia Doubtfire.

D said...

BEST ACTOR
01. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
02. Sean Penn, Milk
03. Benicio del Toro, The Argentine/Guerilla
04. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
05. Will Smith, Seven Pounds

BEST ACTRESS
01. Angelina Jolie, Changeling
02. Meryl Streep, Doubt
03. Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
04. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
05. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I really want to see "Grey Gardens" succeed (for Lange's sake), but I'm not too confident in it at the moment. Perhaps my feelings will change once a trailer is released.

mrripely said...

yes but kate winslet was not nommed in 07 so what gives.

why is pfeiffer suddenly number 3.

Kamila said...

My predictions:

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Benicio del Toro, “The Argentine”
Leonardo diCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
Jamie Foxx, “The Soloist”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

NATHANIEL R said...

why is pfeiffer #3 all of a sudden? because she was not on the original list and her film was moved up to December 2008 from the originally rumored 2009.

mrripely said...

yes but why is she so much of a top 5 mopre than winslet who is not in the top 5 for either tr or rr,seems like you 're letting your love of the pfeiffer cloud your judgement,what makes her such a juggernaut more than hawkins or winslet and jolie,barrymore is a poor choice too.

Anonymous said...

Actor:
*Hugh Jackman, Australia -- I think he will [deservedly and finally] receive his first nomination.
*Leonardo DiCaprio, RR
*Benicio Del Toro, Che
*Viggo Mortensen, The Road
*Brad Pitt, TCCOBB
*Alternate: Sean Penn, Milk

Actress:
*Meryl Streep, Doubt
*Kate Winslet, RR
*Nicole Kidman, Australia
*Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Keira Knightley, The Duchess (and I can't remember who made the comment comparing KK and Emily Blunt, but Knightley is a fantastic actress who grows with every role. Blunt's role is more of a love story and her growing up to take her place in the royalty. Knightley's is much more complex with a wide range of emotions. I've read both scripts, and The Duchess seems much more juicier).
*Alternate: Angelina Jolie, Changeling

So I am really betting on "Australia" having a major success. I know most aren't predicting acting nominations for the said movie, but I believe this will be Kidman's comeback and Hugh's entrance into the Academy's graces. The Academy will finally believe in love stories again.

Nat, I am surprised Knightley and Kidman are so far down on your list. What are your thoughts on their roles? (And Jackman's?)

And I don't get the love for Barrymore at all. She is a mediocre actress at best and will surely be in over her head in this one. I think Pfeiffer will get lost in the mix as well.

mrripley said...

well said about drew who has shown not the least bit of range in any film,her silly smirk rivals the overrated george clooney plus pfeiffer and her film will be lost in the mix or simply move if pfeiffer gets anything it will be a nod a la anneete bening in being julia we liked you but we should've given it to you 1989 or 1992 plus they are over julianne moore big time.

nat the pfeiffer worship goes overboard i love sigourney but would not put her name down everytime she coughed.

NATHANIEL R said...

in regards to Pfeiffer...

here's the thing. It's a Stephen Frears movie. The Oscar voters like his movies. It's a period drama. It reunites director, screenwriter, and oscar nominated star of Dangerous Liaisons.

the tech crew is filled with Oscarable people too.

MIRAMAX & the Weinsteins together on this one.

this is hardly a far fetched notion. you;ll find other non-PFeiffer worshipping sites that predict her as well.



just saying

NATHANIEL R said...

as for Barrymore...

since when were mediocre actors banned from getting Oscar nominations. Happens all the time. ;)

Anonymous said...

Unfortunally, beside Barrymore is a MEDIOCRE actress; she's part of a Hollywood royal family, she has a juicy role and if she's very convincent (Unleast at AMPAS) in this film the nomination is possible. Remember Mira Sorvino or Salma Hayek.

About Knightley, I love her in her previous films like Pride & Prejudice and The Hole but after Pirates sucess and her awful performance (Unleast for me, the worst thing of the film) in Atonement, she's constant overracts and looks insipid. About "The Duchess" trailers she didn't convince me and I heard mixed reviews at the screeners from "The Duchess"...

Still, if a british actress could get in the top 5 for being nominated... that's Sally Hawkins. I saw "Happy-Go-Lucky" and she's hilarious, perfect and very convincent in her role.

amir_uk said...

Hawkins won't be nominated - her performance is ANNOYING more than anything else. I've even predicted her in the contest, but don't want her anywhere near the shortlist, please. In fact, that whole film is ageing really badly in my mind.

amir_uk said...

Psst Nathaniel... you've got Charlize and Hilary the wrong way round in your post intro.

amir_uk said...

...And you missed out Reese! How could you?!? She may have disappeared since but that win was a sweet one.

Hayden said...

I'm so thrilled to see Michelle's face in that glorious top five. The thought of watching her as a nominee is almost more than I can handle. A couple of years ago I wondered if I'd ever see it in my time, and, by some divine chance, it could happen this year.

I won't even use the word "win," but I'm just ecstatic that she could even be in contention for a LEAD statuette, and for a role much more Oscar-friendly than we saw last year.

It's too glorious for words. Gah.

Hayden said...

Oh, and everyone needs to drop the notion that talent has anything to do with the Oscars. You're bound to be disappointed.

Walter L. Hollmann said...

For Best Actor, I can definitely see:

Benicio Del Toro, Che
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

For the win, I have no clue. Will they want to honor Penn again, so soon after Mystic River? Do they really want to reward two previous winners in the top acting categories? I don't think so. I give the edge to Frank Langella, as a send-off.

Actress:
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
...and? I want Drew Barrymore to get the nom, but I still don't have that confidence. Michelle Pfeiffer seems like a solid deal, but how often does that go awry?

Meryl will win, of course.

rosengje said...

The Reader is going to be released in 09. I just finished reading Revolutionary Road and she is perfectly cast in a part that simultaneously showcases huge emotional range and significant restraint.

I was really hoping for a Julianne Moore surge, but I don't see the movie receiving any broad support, especially if it is a competitive year. I enjoyed Blindness more than most, and she's quite good in it, but it is going to be very difficult for Miramax to get anyone to see it.

As of right now, I'm going:
Angelina Jolie
Kate Winslet
Sally Hawkins
Meryl Streep
Keira Knightley / Emily Blunt

Arkaan said...

1. Wait a minute. People are attacking Nathaniel for including Pfeiffer but ignoring his Pitt mention? I think Nate's love for the Bradster leaps in front of his common sense. For me, the basic fact is that this decade, Pitt's made two notable films (no, Troy is in no way notable, except for it's budget) - Oceans 11 and Babel. I'm gonna argue that his status as an epic celebrity hurts him deeply in terms of being taken seriously. That, and I'd add that I sincerely think we're all overrating the chances of David Fincher's film at the oscars.

Pfeiffer makes sense, on paper anyway. I'll have to see the film to believe it any further, because I'm not taken with this idea.

2. I'm not really sure I buy your argument re: Blanchett and Winslet. Obviously, no one gets nominated every year. But is that a reason they won't be nodded this year?

I'm excluding Blanchett because of possible category confusion and the overall expectation that the film won't do well. Winslet, on the other hand.... She's been nominated for unconventional roles in strong categories (2004 and 2006). She has yet to be the sole nominee from her film (across the board, not just acting), but it does seem like Revolutionary Road will at least be a minor player across the board.

3. My wishful thinking prediction? Mortensen AND Kodi Smit-McPhee in lead. I'm still smarting from "Affleck's in supporting despite the fact that it's his arc that lends weight and meaning to the film" nomination last year.

4. I'm a little annoyed that Che doesn't have distribution yet. It's making me paranoid. Why don't they cut it's a little bit so it's three hours and change (and by change I mean half an hour or so, so 3hr 30min.

5. I think Hugh Jackman is a star that the oscars can get behind, nomination wise. Whether it's this year or eventually, I don't know. Oh, Nate - he also has an emmy (it's for hosting the Tonys)

Anonymous said...

My feelings at this point are pretty much in tune with everybody else's.

Best Actress:

1) Michelle Pfeiffer for "Cherie", WINNER
Frears makes a good movie, and voters are going to be happy to be get the chance to award a favorite actress who never won - it's not often older actresses get a juicey enough part, so voters are going to leap at the chance now.

2) Angelina Jolie for "The Changeling". There are hardly any movies with women leads, and Eastwood seems to be one of the few popular male directors who takes a strong stand on seeing women as strong sympathetic heroines with rights. This movie will be strong and good.

3) Sally Hawkins for "Happy Go Lucky". Voters find it so refreshing to see a cheerful lead actress and a positive portrayal that they really get behind this performance.

4) Sophie Okenedo for "Skin". You can't have a lineup without at least a bit of diversity, so why not nominate someone who's actually good and deserves it? I read the true story behind this movie on Art and Letters Daily, and it is fascinating. Okenedo is an excellent actress, and Sam Neill as her father - it'll be worth seeing.

5) A toss-up.
a) Nicole Kidman. I also think "Australia" is going to be a big success.
b) Natalie Portman in "Brothers"
c) Meryl Streep in "Mama Mia" (not "Doubt"). "Doubt" can so easily turn out to be a stagey bore, a "good-for-you" movie, but "Mama Mia" is going to be one of the hits of the summer, and Streep in comedy is far more appealing and fresh than Streep in drama.

D said...

mrripley said:

"nat the pfeiffer worship goes overboard i love sigourney but would not put her name down everytime she coughed."

This is a ridiculous statement. In "Cheri," Pfeiffer has what is possibly her most promising role in a decade. This is the first time she's worked with a top quality director (in an Oscar-bait project) since she was directed by Scorsese back in 1993.

NATHANIEL R said...

in regards to Sophie Okonedo I would place her much higher (the story sounds fascinating) but for fears that the film isn't even going to come out or be pushed. Things have been so quiet there.

NATHANIEL R said...

oh and arkaan ---i think the Oscars will get behind Hugh Jackman when he does an Oscary role. But male romantic leads... that's just a tough sell for AMPAS for whatever reason. Even if they get nominated they don't win (think Fiennes in English Patient or Gable in Gone With the Wind) and sometimes they don't even get nominated even when the film is huge (think DiCaprio in Titanic or Ewan MacGregor in Moulin Rouge!... the latter of which never had any buzz despite being excellent in a challenging role)

Anonymous said...

The only thing I'm predicting is Langella for the win.

Glenn said...

The thing that peeves me off about the Pitt talk is that he's apparently so overdue even though he already has an Oscar nod and a huge career when there are plenty of fine actors that have gone decades without a single nomination despite deserving a couple. Christian Bale, for one, is certainly coming close to "just give him one already!" territory.

Meh.

I haven't had the urge to change my predictions yet. Not enough info coming through. I still don't have faith in The Changeling.

Although, here's a question for Oscar fanatics - How frequently does it happen that a snub leads to nomination the next year. People seem to think it happens all the time, but I wouldn't think it does. I'm remembering Jeremy Irons and I'm sure there's afew others recently...

Michael Parsons said...

I am a little concerned about "Cheri". I am sure the woman is good, but the film is in post production, and would hate to think it being rushed for completion, which can always ruin an otherwise good film.

Plus it has that pesky late release date, where it could affect her as well. Other actresses may have their movie shown earlier and therefore that performance has sat longer with voters.

Then again there are the Academy preview screenings.

That is it...I am definitely putting Gabourey "Gabby" Sidibe in my predictions. You jut gotta have that one person who looks totally out of place. Like the adult version of 'Which of these kids are doing their own thing'.

Anonymous said...

Oh god, can you even imagine if Angelina and Brad BOTH got nominations? The media would go into hyperdrive. I guess it would do wonders for the ratings...

I don't think it'll happen, though. I think/hope that she'll be on the list, but agree with others here that Brad will miss out.

-zarah

Rizz said...

Michelle Pfieffer seems a shoo-in for a nom..plus she really looks great on the red carpet thats a plus point right?

Plus I dont think we should lock Angelina Jolie this early,...could turn out as A Mighty Heart...what if it doesnt get respectable box-office!

NATHANIEL R said...

Brad will miss out if they don't like Benjamin Button... but if the film is big, I don't see why he wouldn't be honored. He's not a star that generates dislike (like, oh, Bill Murray who is notoriously prickly or, um, Tom Cruise lately who is notoriously crazy) ...unless one's name is Glenn (hee).

So I can imagine that he has industry goodwill. That helps. Of course at this point anything is possible. The only sure thing is that you'll have a biopic or two in the mix. That's how they do it.

Janice said...

I wouldn't underestimate Brolin's Bush just yet - it depends on how well the film is received, what Stone has to say, and how Brolin plays it (and how well he "disappears" into the role.) And of course all that goodwell from two excellent perfs last year. I think a big part of Jamie Foxx's win for Ray had to do with the fact that he did an excellent job of mimicking a person that everybody knew. Brolin may do the same here (not as many people will be familiar with Harvey Milk, for instance), and if the film is very critical of Bush (what else could it be?) it may be the Academy's way of blowing the outgoing Bush a symbolic rapsberry.

Glenn said...

I worry that Cheri will become yet another period drama thrown into a last minute year end release to only be roundly ignored.

Anonymous said...

Isn't "W" supposed to be sympathetic to Bush's role in office?

I hear what you're saying about Hugh Jackman and romantic leads- I just think they guy deserves more attention (he was excellent in The Prestige and absolutely mind-blowing and heart rendering in The Fountain). Who knows, If Australia meets and goes above expectations, it could be his year.

Anonymous said...

I'll go directly to the winners:

Best actress:

Michelle Pfeiffer.

Who will be the other four who will graciously smile and clap while LaPfeiffer climbs on stage to receive her now-or-never long time overdue Oscar doesn't really matter, they'll be just extras. Amazingly good extras maybe, but extras anyway ;).

For best actor I thought Del Toro in a biopic was almost a lock, but having no distribution for the film yet starts to be awkward. Cannes, apart from a film festival is a market to sell & buy movies, isn't it? I just don't understand it. So I have no idea who could be, maybe a yet to be known actor à la Marion Cotillard.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the Brad Pitt happening, nor this year nor ever. It think he will be one of those actors who will increase/create a legend of themselves by joining the list of actors who never got an Oscar.

Iggy

mrripley said...

while we are on the pitt subject why wasn't he ommed for babel and jesse james he was better than some of those years nominees esp jesse james last year.

nat i agree with you on pitt but la pfeiffer no.

Ivan Hernandez said...

best actor
*BENICIO/tour de force
VIGGO/two for a row
SEAN/milkshakes
FRANK/honorary
JOSH/guilty pleasure

best actress
HAWKINS/leigh factor
BLUNT/the beauty
*PFEIFFER/comeback
STREEP/nun power
OKONEDO/race issue

supporting actor
*KODI/breakthrough
HEATH/greatness
ROBERT JR./his year
EMILE/last year
LIEV/candidate

supporting actress
*DAVIS/character
THOMPSON/profile
CRUZ/red carpet
WINGER/comeback
BURSTYN/guilds

Anonymous said...

I think too than Sophie Okonedo another nomination. That's sound interesting because we have another great british actress and know for "Hotel Rwanda", yes, so I believe too that she could get an Oscar Nomination:
-The role is great, unleast on paper
-Real life character and victim of Apartheid... Sound Oscar
-She's a contanst good actress
-Racial diversity at Oscars
-She's not Thandie Newton (Who follows a big division between fans and detractors)
-A la Samantha Morton, she gets a surprising nomination in 2004

Nat, I believe Pitt nomination:
-He's a star and a good actor
-The movie is high profile, if the film is loved by critics and AMPAS, I don't think he's out of the competition, including Cate Blanchett will get with another nomination
-He's better with every role.
Same about la Pfeiffer...

About Gaby Sidibe, I didn't go out for the competition, same case to Julianne Moore; and it's true that breakhtough actresses were nominated and even win in the past. Last years' Keisha Castle-Hughes, Catalina Sandino Moreno and Jennifer Hudson. But they're were nominated (In last years) because the competition were low and the film was loved/liked by critics. This actress race is though and full of great contenders. Gaby needs to be great for even the consideration against overdue actresses (pfeiffer, streep, winslet, moore, linney) young promises (Blunt, hathaway, knightley) and great roles (Jolie, Okonedo, Hawkins)

But nothing news from The Reader's producers about release date to 2009, in fact, I don't think will they chance the release... I think we have that film in December 2008

Anonymous said...

I think Banks could have a real shot at a supporting actress nod as "Laura Bush".

She will be the one definite sympathetic figure in that movie, and Laura Bush remains a popular figure in real life.

It could be a way for the Academy to both acknowledge the film without having to acknowledge a controversial figure like Dreyfuss as "Cheney" or Toby Jones as "Rove".

Anonymous said...

I actually think there's going to be a sea change in nominations this year - that they're going to mix it up more, and nominate some popular performers, and movies that lots of people have seen. My bet is they've re-assessed and are going to draw in more of a crowd.

Like a previous poster said, nominating BOTH Brad and Angelina will give an enormous boost to publicity and ratings. (What a story ! Not nearly as good a story with only one nominated). And both of them ARE good enough actors, for the second year in a row.

And if they're going to nominate Meryl Streep, why nominate her for a downer movie like "Doubt" that hardly anyone will see, instead of going with her comedy "Mama Mia" (I mean, it's not going to get a best picture), so draw the crowd in with the same performer in a more popular movie (it's not like she's not going to be good or deserving).

And then some popular performers from genres that haven't been appreciated much lately (except by crowds), like the versatile, talented, likeable Hugh Jackman. Like Michelle Pfeiffer. And why not Robert Downey Jr. as a lead for "Iron Man" instead of giving him a nom for supporting less talented actors in another movie that nobody's interested in? (like Peter Bart's recent column).

There can still be wonderful artistic performances in movies that don't make a lot of money nominated, but my bet is that the Academy is re-thinking it's strategy to remain on top.

Arkaan said...

Snub leading to a nod next year?

There aren't many, but I'd argue that a run of good performances certainly helps. Patricia Clarkson and Renee Zellweger are the two that spring to mind.

Anonymous said...

I have to say how they will handle Cate Blanchett in Benjamin Button will be intriguing. It seems like one of those roles which borderlines between lead and supporting. Supporting since she, along with the rest of the cast are supporting Pitt, and the fact she's playing his lover. It could be difficult for the studio to put her into a catergory, since they will put this years BSA winner Tilda Swinton into supporting along with Tarji P.Henson, and though Blanchett has been embraced by the actors branch of the academy and is highly regarded in the same way as Meryl for example, the role might not be enough to secure a best actress nom. Take a look at Jennifer Connelly in a Beautiful Mind, she won the LEAD actress SAG award but won the BSA OSCAR, i think the girlfriend/lover role always creates catergory confusion.
It would be better to put Blanchett in supporting, where she could be a lock and has a better chance in that catergory than putting her into BA. Plus there's also the fact that she got 2 noms this year, so they might not want to nom her again, since there was a little outcry over her elizabeth Best Actress nom, or alternatively, the actors branch could be devastated that this is the last Blanchett performance we'll have for a couple of years, and therefore decide to punish her by not nomming her at all, as they wanted her to be an annual awards fixture.