Wednesday, June 11, 2008

What Characters! Supporting Oscar Race Updates

In the supporting Oscar categories I'm still predicting with confidence that two lesser known players, both pictured here, will be major forces at year's end. (The other shortlist predictions I'm shakier about)

Supporting Actress Predictions ~ I've been a big fan of Viola Davis (Doubt) since her amazing triple play in 2002 when she wowed in Solaris, Far From Heaven and Antwone Fisher... all three of which were roles that would have been not so big a deal with a lesser magician inhabiting them. So hand her a plum gig like the concerned 60s mom in Doubt? My bet is she'll ace it and be a threat to win the statue IF the film is in the Best Picture lineup (you know how that helps!). Kathy Bates, previously predicted for Revolutionary Road will also be featured in another year end entry Chéri though I'm unsure of what her role is like in the latter. The double play will probably help.

Supporting Actor Predictions ~I'd call Demian Bichir, who plays Fidel Castro in Steven Soderbergh's Che Guevera opus, an easy get but for the uncertain route the film make take to land in theaters. It was called Che in Cannes and clocked in at some 4+ hours long. It will probably be called The Argentine and then Guerilla once divvied up to normal movie length in the states though release plans are still foggy. One wonders if they shouldn't just release the Cannes cut and call it for the epic that it is obviously meant to be. Maybe throw in an intermission! (I can't be the only one that misses those popcorn and pee breaks when a movie goes over 3 hours) I'd also like to note that I feel confident that whatever the overall reception is for the adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's The Road, I'm betting that child actor Kodi Smit-McPhee (previous post) is one to watch for a supporting nod. It's a sympathetic leading role in the book. And you know how Oscar likes the brilliant lead kiddies in the supporting categories... (Tatum O'Neal in Paper Moon, Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense, etcetera)

How are you feeling about the supporting actress and supporting actor categories? Any cheery hunches or 'doubting thomas' feelings you feel like sharing?

22 comments:

Hayden said...

I'm a little disturbed that Emma Thompson isn't even making your long list for Brideshead Revisited. Her role is terrific and she looks incredible in the trailer.

It's Oscar's favorite Honorary Dame bitching it up in a period drama with her most AMPAS-friendly part in years. Surely she deserves to at least be on the list.

Robert said...

No you're not the only person who misses Intermission. And dammit, with all these overlong "event" movies going around, I demand someone make a film with an Overture. Does no one know how to make a proper epic anymore??????

Okay, that's off my chest. Oh yeah, Supporting categories.... um.... man, so very murky right now.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't count out David Wenham or Bryan Brown for "Australia."

Carl said...

I may be the only Oscar watcher who believes that two good supporting gigs in one year splits your vote rather than one reinforcing the other. What if both of Kathy Bates' performances are so good that it is impossible to choose?

And yeah, I like Emma Thompson if "Brideshead" is any good at all and AMPAS voters can get past its PBS 'been there, done that' roots. She would make one hell of an Ista, too, if she were ten years younger...

Kamikaze Camel said...

Somebody has already mentioned this when you first posted predictions, but will the Academy be able to resist having Javier Bardem announce Penelope Cruz's name at the ceremony? One of the sexiest couples ever, exotic foreigners, woody allen movies... so many ingredients for "an oscar moment". etc.

Nice pick with Kodi Smit-McPhee. If I had have known it'd be a 2008 I would have predicted him and Hillcoat for Best Director. Alas I did not.

Although, it's a worrying thing to see so many "Weinstein Co" typed. Surely they couldn't land major nominations for two movies, right?

NATHANIEL R said...

yeah the weinsteins are worrisome. i still don't quite get how they lost their oscar savvy so completely. was it always just the deep pockets they had with disney? that seems too simple an equation.

anyway. i forgot about emma AGAIN and one more candidate for Changeling so i shall do a quick update

Kamikaze Camel said...

Anon, I'd be looking at Jack Thompson more than anyone for an Australia supporting nod. Depending on the size of the role (i'm not sure anyone outside of Kidman/Jackman and the little boy will feature for more than maybe 15 minutes max) I could see him getting the "dignified elder" nomination. He's had a career in the US and been around a damn long time.

But, yeah, I doubt any of the supporting players will be able to muscle through with limited screentime.

par3182 said...

surely they've beefed up the role of the novice nun for amy adams. she is, after all, amy adams. supporting actress is the category where costars are most frequently nominated (...isn't it?)

Rizz said...

Debra Winger seems so uncertain right now...
I'm thinking this movie could turn out as this year's Margot at the Wedding
Hopefully The Reader gets released this year!!!Double noms for Kate Winslet would be incredible

NATHANIEL R said...

it's not that that young nun isn't a big part. It is fairly sizeable. It's just that the role is so much less meaty than the other three roles.

It's possible she could get nominated from sheer goodwill and being part of the production of course... but for now I'm betting against it.

Anonymous said...

kamikaze, David Wenham and Bryan Brown are like the "villains" of "Australia." There is no way they have 15 minutes of screen time. I've been following the movie production closely, and both actors (esp. Wenham) seem to have pretty decent roles.

Also Nathaniel, I think Robert Downey Jr. has a great shot at getting nominated. Three movies this year (a major comeback in the industry) + getting rave reviews for Iron Man + working with Joe Wright + having a meaty role = Oscar nomination for "The Soloist."

Janice said...

I'd be very surprised if any of the supporting players in Australia has a shot at AMPAS. Baz's forte is visuals; and while he is very good at picking the right actors for the roles (think Nicole and Ewan's chemistry, or Jim Broadbent's brilliant turn), I'm not so sure how good he is with naturalistic acting, coaxing a performance from an actor - or providing a role that will give the actors room to improvise and discover layers (especially when it comes to villains.)

Speaking of Jim Broadbent, I'm not sure I'd sign on to your theory 100%, carl. I'm not sure that Broadbent's supporting win in Iris didn't have a little something to do with his turn in MR that same year - and the strong contrast of one role to the other that allowed him to exhibit his range. (Add to that the goodwill accumulated from his previous perfs in Bridget Jones and Topsy-Turvy, etc.) So I think it can go both ways, and depends largely on the circumstances in each case.

amir_uk said...

"I'm not so sure how good he is with naturalistic acting, coaxing a performance from an actor..."

Janice, really? What about the incredible Romeo and Juliet we got from Leonardo DiCaprio and Claire Danes? Very naturalistic and, frankly, a bit of a miracle given the age of the performers. Danes deservedly won some Best Actress awards that year.

jimmy said...

sophia loren in "nine"?

this is going to be a GREAT year!

NATHANIEL R said...

i wouldn't expect that one until 2009.

mrripley said...

nat are you saying the reader is out as far as noms go.

NATHANIEL R said...

it makes it easier for me to guess if i assume delays. and i do.

i mean they were hinting at post production delays months ago... and that was before two of their producing team members passed away. so sad...

Anonymous said...

I'm accord with some of your predictions and I'm glad of your prediction to Heath Ledger (Sentimental factor) and Penelope Cruz (If she'll win the Oscar, all the cast of "Nine" has unleast one Oscar)... The Supporting Categories are a little bit borings...

In Cuestion to David Wenham, I like him but the film needs to be brilliant to have acting nominations especially in the supporting category because we have a lot of villians: Heath Ledger, Jason Butler Henry, Josh Brolin, Gael Garcia Bernal...

My predictions:

Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Koby Smit-McPhee, The Road
3. Jason Butler Henry, The Exchange
4. Liev Schreiber, Defiance
5. Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist (I don't have any faith faith to this proyect but comeback is calling)
Alt: One of the Milk Guys. The Formula:
-Strongest role: Josh Brolin
-A la Gyllenhaal: James Franco
-A la Wahlberg: Emile Hirsch

Supporting Actress:
1. Kate Winlset, The Reader (If the release is in this 2008 she has strong chances)
2. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
3. Viola Davis, Doubt
4. Franka Potente, Che (I believe she has strongest chances instead Demian Bichir, because she's not an unknow in USA, she's co-star of Damon and Depp and real life character)
5. Taraji P. Henson / Cate Blanchett, The curious case of Benjamin Button (Depends the campaign and how important)
Alt: Dame british... Between Miranda Richardson and Emma Thompson (BUT I don't like her trailer and the release date)

Kamila said...

So far, my predictions are:

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., “The Soloist”
John Malkovich, Changeling
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, Doubt
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Viola Davis, Doubt
Catherine Keener, The Soloist
Miranda Richardson, The Young Victoria

rosengje said...

Penelope Cruz!! I absolutely loved her in VCB, and would love to see Woody Allen back in contention.

My secret hope is that everyone will start talking about Michael K. Williams's performance as The Thief in The Road. It is a really small part, but he is beloved (by me and the other five people who watch The Wire) and really suited for the part.

Anonymous said...

I'm so glad to see some recognition for Viola Davis!

I think Emma Thompson will be in there as well. Yes, it's been done before, but for another generation. This new film has just scrumptious young guys, whose photos will be in every publication because they're irresistable. The movie will make money from a young audience finding it fashionable. Older audiences will recognize that the acting skills of Emma Thompson are what holds the narrative together.

And I'm still going for Sam Neill in "Skin", Great actor, looks like a great part. People will be watching the film for Sophie Okenedo's performance, and remember how much they've always liked Neill.

And Jamie Bell in "Defiance" - always nice to be able to welcome a new generation of actors when one of them is so good and promising to stay that way.

Janice said...

amir_uk, I have to admit I have NOT seen R&J. My bad. *hangs head*

I don't see why Brideshead Revisited having been "done before" should be any impediment to Emma's nomination. She's loved by Oscar, a great actress, and how many people are really going to be comparing her perf to the series? (I for one admit I've never seen the series.) That the BBC had done the very popular and "definite" version of Pride and Prejudice with Jennifer Ehle less than ten years prior did not prevent Kiera Knightly from being nommed for the same role in the more recent film.