Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Picture & Director: Early Oscar Predictions

I've lost me mind trying to do these April Fools Too Early Oscar Predictions. It's like an OCD ritual. It makes me frakkin' crazy. All the second guessing, the multiple options, the domino effect of one prediction begetting another. Nevertheless if you are silly enough (like myself) to attempt to see the unforseeable it can be fun to tell yourself stories about what might happen in a cinematic year.

Here are my detailed thoughts on Best Picture and a not so detailed look at Best Director (an entire lineup of newbies ---what am I thinking?). I've made two minor tech predix adjustment (in sound and editing) as I rethink some of this but as soon as the actors and actresses go up it can all be considered final first predictions.

Bragging and Self Flagellation
I have one of the very best track records on the net for predictions this early. (27% success rate last year before we knew anything) Though that sounds like bragging I must also remind you that I fall down in the prognosticating ranks as we get closer to the final nomination predictions in January. I'm not sure how I let the other pundits overtake me. Maybe I'm too caught up in possible upsets? too emotionally attached to the movies by then? I'm not sure. But this far out I do enviably well. (27% probably doesn't sound enviable but just try it one year. Write them up and shove them in a drawer. Pull them back out in January. You'll be shocked.)

Actors and Actresses will be up tonight and then we can leave Oscar predix behind and get back to non-statue like topics for the spring and summer


Anonymous said...

Well it'a always fun this early. Currently my predictions for best picture & director are:

Charlie Wilson's War
The Golden Age
The Kite Runner
The Savages
There Will Be Blood

alt: Reservation Road

PT Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
Shekhar Kapur - The Golden Age
Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War
Ridley Scott - American Gangster

alt: Terry George - Reservation Road

Unknown said...

woot Atonement! I'm so excited for htat one. Here's to hoping that it gets the film it deserves and that McAvoy is noticed for his great year and great performances.

J.D. said...

I'm going to try this then. I have issues with this, but I'll try.

And Lust, Caution is probably Taiwan, right? CTHD is.

Glenn Dunks said...

My predix at this current very early stage are American Gangster, Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, Gone Baby Gone and Reservation Road.

For director I take out Reservation Road and throw in Sussanne Bier.

Gone Baby Gone is my crazy "why not?" prediction.

The Kite Runner is directed by Marc Forster, so I predict it will be bad.

Anonymous said...

I wonder... Spider-Man 2 was one of the best reviewed films of 2004. If Spider-Man 3 surposes that film (which all signs point to yes) what are the possibilities that maybe Raimi could get a directing nod? I don't it's entirely out of the question.

Though how much of Spider-Man's success is actually do to Raimi instead of all the other amazing factors?


i would say Raimi deserves most of the credit. Think about all the other superhero films and then be in even more awe of what he does. It's MORE exciting than the other comic book films + it actually feels sincere and bigger than a movie -- mythic. like a hero tale should be.

anyway i'm crazy about those movies. hope 3 is as good.

adam k. said...

Who wrote them? A lot of that was in choosing which stories to tell, and how. I would sat the screenwriters are due a credit deal of credit also. Maybe Raimi wrote, too, I'm not sure.

Anonymous said...

Nat - given your love for Raimi - I do hope this doesn't disturb you too much - but he is supposed to direct Blanchett in Cancer Vixen - 2008 schedule -


Anonymous said...

No love for "My Blueberry Nights"?

Anonymous said...

I always admire your predictions. My current best picture predictions are:

The Golden Age
The Kite Runner
Reservation Road
There Will Be Blood