Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Why There Are No Oscar "Locks" Just Yet

...Phillip Seymour Hoffman could be 2005's Paul Giamatti .
...Visual Effects guys could figure 5 noms and 3 Oscars is enough recognition for that galaxy far far away
...Sound Effects members could have a secret rabidly anti-Scientologist bent.
...John Williams is competing against himself.
...it's only October.
...anything that hasn't opened yet could be delayed till 2006
...Corpse Bride could be buried in the animation race by inferior CG fare.
...Writers could realize that the actors made Crash's script sound better than it was.
...Reese Witherspoon could throw a phone at someone.


Anonymous said...

Thank you, thank you, thank you Nathaniel...if I have to hear one more "Top 10 of 2005" list or hear about Hoffman being a fait accompli, I'm going to strangle someone.

The big movies have yet to appear. By December, Hoffman will be old news. Is he great? Yes. Are there other great performances? Let's see.

adam k. said...

I really don't see why anyone's calling Hoffman a lock. There's no evidence that the academy likes him at all. In fact, they probably don't. And isn't his character kind of hateable? Liam Neeson seemed much more oscary at this time last year, but was overlooked, as were many others. And Hoffman for the win? Please.

I do think Munich could easily be delayed. But as for John Williams competing against himself... when that happens, he always gets TWO noms. I am betting that will happen this year. He will not cancel himself out.

But yes, Reese COULD throw a phone at someone. But it's highly doubtful. She is not a rageaholic likie Crowe... or at least it hasn't yet been made public. :)

par3182 said...

won't 'corpse bride' be buried by superior stop motion fare?

Anonymous said...

Adam, Williams was battling himself last year! He had Harry Potter 3 and The Terminal. Thankfully he got a nod for the superior score (and film)

I completely agree about Hoffman though. As I said in another post, if Hoffman was as liked by the Academy others then wouldn't he have a nod by now? It doesn't necessarily appear that he is that well liked. Plus he's of the "schlub" variety (aka Paul Giamati is the president)


Anonymous said...

(sorry, one more thing)

Do ACTORS get many solo acting nods?

Er, let me explain. Charlize Theron got a lone nomination for her film. And there's been quite a few. And unless you're Jack Nicholson or someone, does that happen regularly with male actors? Or does the film as a whole need to impress.



damien b -My bet for 2005's equivalent to Tea Leoni's 2004 buzz? Zhang Ziyi

gabriel -uhhuh. exactly. by buzz alone there seem to already be about 7 best actor locks. This category is never decided by early October.

par -as per Corpse Bride I meant buried in terms of not receiving a nomination at all. Obviously W & G will win (it's sooooo delightful and we know Oscar loves them already) but Chicken Little and Madagascar could be the other two instead of CB. Jimmy Neutron anyone?

adam -you're probably right on Williams but I always like to maintain hope.

glenn -good point on gender divisions for lead acting nominations. Without doing any research that "sounds" true. does anyone know for sure?

NicksFlickPicks said...

Well, it's not clear to me that Capote is only contending for Hoffman alone, but even if it were, here are the singleton Best Actor nominations from the last 10:

House of Sand and Fog
The Quiet American
I Am Sam
Before Night Falls
The Straight Story
The Hurricane
American History X
The Apostle
Ulee's Gold
Mr. Holland's Opus

It doesn't happen nearly as often as with actresses—no surprise, since almost the only way to get a film with a female lead funded and backed in Hollywood is to make it an acting-Oscar grab, and there are comparatively few female leads in big tentpole films. Still, it ain't impossible.

Nor are nods for Clifton Collins, Catherine Keener, or the script, at the very least. And don't forget all the cases like Pollock and Quills and Ray and Ali and Training Day, where enthusiasm for a lead male performance actually creates coattails for more nods. (Best Actress candidates almost never achieve this.)

NicksFlickPicks said...

Oops, my bad: House of Sand and Fog also had that bizarre scoring nod. No wonder I tried to forget it.


I would be VERY surprised if Keener made it into the shortlist for Capote....like Samantha Morton in In America surprised.

I think it's a fine supporting performance but it lacks any and all elements of things that they (the Academy voters) go for in this category. it's not comedic. it's not a co-lead. it's not showy. she doesn't have any big emotional scenes. etc... it would be a very un-AMPAS shout out if they went that way...

Anonymous said...

you've seen capote, nat??

and nick: have you forgotten all about Shohreh in House of Sand and Fog?


yes. i saw Capote a few days ago. Good stuff but I'm a bit perplexed by the fervor of the praise.

NicksFlickPicks said...

From one Nick to another: I'm a total idiot. Or maybe I just try to block out that category entirely, since the Eyeless One made off with it. Anyway, thanks for saving me from myself.

Nathaniel: again, I haven't seen Capote, but if people really wind up liking it as much as some people do, and Keener's had a big year with this and 40-Year-Old Virgin, I think it's at least possible that someone could swing this for her.

NicksFlickPicks said...

Just for shits & giggles, here are the one-off Best Actress nominees from the same 10-year period (unless I'm goofing again, but I don't think I am):

Being Julia
Maria Full of Grace
Whale Rider
Something's Gotta Give
Bridget Jones's Diary
Requiem for a Dream
Music of the Heart
One True Thing
Mrs. Brown
Marvin's Room
Breaking the Waves
The Bridges of Madison County

There are almost twice as many of these as for the men, so Glenn's point definitely holds.

Anonymous said...

"Music of the Heart" also had that song nod for Diane Warren (if that counts as a real nod). And "Mrs. Brown" was nodded for Makeup along with the Dench.

Anonymous said...

I agree it's early to be declaring locks.... but surely even the worst case scenerio for Brokeback Mountain gets it nominated for adapted screenplay.

Anonymous said...

I highly doubt that The Corpse Bride will be buried by subpar fare like Chicken Little or Madagascar (which I actually enjoyed, at least more than the Shrek movies). It is not a small philosophical indie like Waking Life, and it actually has been a modest success. In fact, I predict that Corpse Bride will be the second most successful nominee for Best Animated Feature in terms of box office. I think Wallace and Gromit and The Corpse Bride are assured nominations while Howl's Moving Castle is the most vulnerable of the "good" animated films this year.

Joe R. said...

It feels so odd playing the Phillip Seymour Hoffman defender, since he often annoys me, but here goes: on the subject of "the Academy doesn't like him," I really don't see too many egregious snubs.

In Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Ripley, he had major stumbling blocks in the form of co-stars crowding him out of the Supporting Actor category.

Awards were simply NOT going to materialize for Happiness, Owning Mahowny, or Flawless (SAG was an abberation, truly). And while I rather enjoyed him in State and Main, it wasn't a showy role (the unshowiness, indeed, was what I liked about it).

The one true snub, where he was ignored for an awardsy role in a movie that got Academy love elsewhere was Almost Famous. And even there, he was ignored for that all awards season, so it's not like the Academy specifically thumbed their noses at him.

So I'm not sure I completely buy the "Academy hates him" logic. I mean, they clearly don't have a hard-on for him, but maybe circumstance has finally smiled upon him.

Anonymous said...

An animated category with "Wallace and Grommit," "The Corpse Bride," and "Mirrormask" would completely rock.

Won't happen, but it still would rock.

Anonymous said...

Joe, but the thing is that APPARENTLY Mr Hoffman is this huge underappreciated actor (by the academy) who by all rights SHOULD have a nomination by now.

Whether his movies say that he should or not (quite obviously leaning towards "not") we all know the Academy is subsequent to being unappologetically swayed no matter, what the pedigree, if they like the person.

I love that in Nick's list of single nominated films (actress) three of the nominations were... MERYL STREEP. Which, could again, point to a "they need to like you" debate when it comes to single nom debates. I obviously haven't seen Capote so I'm unsure what other catagories it could succeed in though.

And, TO BE EVEN MORE PICKY, I Am Sam and The Hurricane clearly had MUCH higher aspirations for more nods. I wouldn't be hard to suggest that Mr Holland's Opus also expected more? It's hard to see figure what, if any, other nods the movies in the actress list could have gotten.

(People are too harsh on House of Sand & Fog!)


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