Saturday, February 24, 2007

Final Humble Predictions: Let Go and Let Oscar

Despite my feelings about the past cinematic year (i.e. not so great in total) I'm more than a little thrilled that I don't know what to expect tomorrow night at the Oscars. I fully expect to have the worst prediction average of my entire life and that is a great thing. The Oscars should be unpredictable. You shouldn't be able to add it up like: this + this = that even though it's fun and addictive to do that particular brand of glitzy math.

Full article here for those final predictions... about which I am highly confident, no... pretty confident OK, completely not confident about. But at some point you just gotta say: here's what I suspect might happen. A little something for almost everyone. Bring on the show!


Brian Darr said...

I see you made a last-minute switch in the Foreign Film category. I think it's a smart move.

Have a happy Oscar eve!

Anonymous said...

Thought you might like this (from the online version of a Spanish newspaper)...

Maybe some creative mind could put together similar 'custom-made' trophies for other contenders...

Anonymous said...

As your blog is something of a "paper of record" for things Oscar, and since I have no blog of my own, I hope you will permit me to place here for posterity my "should win" list, with some editorial notions -

My “Happy Ballot”

Best Film: “Babel”
Best Director: Paul Greengrass

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker (for Supporting…oops.)
Best Actress: Kat…Kat…I just can’t…Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza

Best Original Screenplay: “Babel”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Departed”

Best Foreign Film: “Vol…” – oh, crap – “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Best Documentary: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Best Animated Film: “Monster House” (how can anyone who’s seen them all vote otherwise?)

Best Cinematography: “The Illusionist”
Best Art Direction: “Pirates of the Carribean”
Best Film Editing: “United 93”
Best Visual Effects: “Pirates of the Carribean”
Best Costume Design: “The Devil Wears Prada”
Best Makeup: “Apocalypto”

Best Sound Mixing: “Apocalypto”
Best Sound Editing: “Apocalypto”
Best Score: “The Queen”
Best Grammy Candidate (why is this category here?): “Patience”

Most Flawless Film: “Apocalypto” (and that is how Best Picture should be decided)

That’s all.

Glenn Dunks said...

"(how can anyone who’s seen them all vote otherwise?)"

quite easily, actually. For once I really like every film nominated in that category, but Monster House is still my #3.

The predix? Yeah, they seem to make sense. The Lives of Others predict is probably going to pan out, but I'm still going with Labyrinth. Meh.

I'm just glad that I'll be happy (for the most part) no matter who wins. And that's not just Picture, but pretty much all the techs as well. Except for Babel. I don't want that to win.

WickedScorp said...

I still have this sinking feeling that Overrated From Iwo Jima. is going to take picture and director, but I was purposely pessimistic with my picks this year. Monster House by far? You must have been smoking something fierce when you saw that excruciating wretch. =p


wow --two anti Monster House votes in this house? Crazy. such a fun and clever movie. Pixar was just on cruise control (har har) or running on fumes and Happy Feet is just bizarre (but at least memorable)

i wish they'd cancel that category

Anonymous said...

anyone know where the oscars are being shown online?

Anonymous said...

While I agree with Nathaniel on principal re: the animated film category (at best, you get something like 20% of eligible films nominated), but looking at the winners, it's hard to begrudge them. Wallace and Grommit, Spirited Away, The Incredibles and Shrek were all better than the best picture winner that year (Crash, Chicago, Million Dollar Baby, and A Beautiful Mind, though Shrek vs A Beautiful Mind in any quality race is a depressing idea. Might as well watch a snail and a slug in a 100 metre dash).

"Apocalypto" as most flawless film. Ouch. That would be enough to convince me to give up film completely.

Michael Parsons said...

May you all have a wonderful night tonight. Remember tonight is really a silly popularity contest, and is not about movies… is about fashion!
Hope you all have a great night!!!!!!!
Thank you Nathaniel for you amazing coverage!

Anonymous said...

Nat, I'm depending on you here for reliable coverage of the whole shebang. Films, fashion and gossip. Since I don't have satellite, there's no way of watching any of it for me here in the UK anyway. Also, it starts at about 1am here and there's the school run tomorrow morning.

Wishing I was in America ... (a very temporary affliction which only happens at this time of year). Hope it's a good one for all of us.

WickedScorp said...

In theory, the concept behind Monster House is a lot of fun and the house itself was actually pretty cool. However, the movie is populated with the most unfunny, grating cast of characters to come along since Shrek... but don't even get me started on that one. Sorry, the act of simply peeing into a soda bottle is not funny in itself, it's hacky and gross (not good gross). I would have liked it slightly better if the house had won, that is, gruesomely killed those kids, those cops, etc. It's also just a visually ugly, creepy (not good creepy) piece of animation... unlike Cars, which was vivid and rich and leagues superior in visual quality than most of the animated garbage being pumped out these days. This was was a pleasant surprise; I'm hit or miss with PIXAR. Sure, the story isn't all that compelling, but what was brilliant here was they way they nuanced the car theme into the smallest of details. It was fun, it was clever, it was cute, it was pretty; loved it. I had the same knee-jerk reaction when they first created the category, but arkaan makes the good point... except with Shrek. Shrek bad.

Anonymous said...

I pretty much agree with all your choices, or at least the alternate choice, ... however, in the Best Movie category, I think the upset might be Little Miss Sunshine,,, I, Personally, want to see The Departed win.

Anonymous said...

I agree that Shrek is bad. I just don't hate it as much as I hate A Beautiful Mind.

Wayne said...

Arkin and "Little Miss Sunshine" upset the frontrunners tonight.

My full predictions essay is posted at San Francisco Journal. (Click my name to read it.)


John T said...

I'd agree that Wallace and Gromit, Spirited Away, and The Incredibles all ended up being better than the eventual Best Picture. I have a massive problem picking a "better" between Shrek and A Beautiful Mind (switch Shrek to Monsters, Inc., and there's no question that Pixar wins, however). This year, none of them really excite me, but Monster House would definitely be better than Babel or Little Miss Sunshine.

Marco said...

Nathaniel, I just have seen Jodie Foster in the Red Carpet. The first thing that came in my mind were that joke about Ellen and Melissa Etheridge.

Funny guy =D

Hugs, Marco

PS- Sorry for possible grammar errors. I´m brazilian and I don´t speak english very well