Friday, March 03, 2006

Indecision is Ugly

Over at my Oscar Countdown today's topic is Final Prediction Jitters. They're all done (See here) but there are 5 battles that are giving me pause (in which I may switch predix --5 PM Saturday is my "no touching it" cut-off).

Read my flip-flopping thoughts on Supporting Actress, Song, Score, Supporting Actor (ol' Jorge to your right -is he safe?), and Foreign Film... and then comment here if you feel you have any wisdom to impart on these tense battles for the coveted Oscar statue.


João Cândido said...

I'll go with Jake Gyllenhaal for best suporting actor. I don't know, just a feeling.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, I agree with all of your choices for who will win in the major acting, picture, writing and directing categories .. they are not the ones I would necessarily WANT to win ...

Anonymous said...

To continue my previous email.. I said I agreed with you on who will win.... who I would like to see win: Actor: Heath Ledger
Actress: Keira Knightley
S. Actor: Matt Dillon
S. Actress: Amy Adam
Movie: Crash
Director: Ang Lee

João Cândido said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
João Cândido said...

If I had ONE wish for Oscar night, that'd be Crash losing everything.

Anonymous said...

I've actually seen 4 of the Foreign Pic nominees, but since it's "Tsotsi" that I haven't seen yet, I may only say, which one is the best of the rest.

I think it's a tough call between "Paradise Now" and "Joyeux Noel", both are very moving and beautiful. But I think "Paradise Now" misses some logical explanations regarding the character development. "Joyeux Noel" has a more fluent plot, even if it may be too much kitsch sometimes. "Sophie Scholl" is just awful, and the last contender is solid but not at all extraordinary.

Poli said...

Supporting Actor will probably go to Clooney, methinks. It's his 'moment' and whatnot.

I say goes balls out with Supporting Actress and predict Michelle Williams. I'm pretty sure Brokeback will get one acting win.

Song? I think it will be "Crash." Although I'd love for Dolly to win.

adam k. said...

Remember Nathaniel, AMPAS votes with their hearts, not their heads, and I think a lot of people's hearts are saying "Gyllenhaal". I personally am leaning toward actually predicting him. Sure, Clooney makes more sense from a purely "he needs to win something" point of view, but I don't think people are looking at it that way. 3 noms in year is a pretty great reward in itself. But really, all he's won so far is the Globe. It reminds me of Tom Cruise's globe... will they REALLY give Clooney is first oscar for support? I'm thinking no. Especially since we know he'll win director some day, or possibly lead actor, too. This is not his only chance. And as far Giammati, all he got snubbed for is the nom. Not the win. Not being nommed gives you momentum for a nom, not a win. And that's what he got. Note that his wins (BFCA, SAG) are from bodies that DID nominate him last year are probably placed him second only to Foxx. Plus, I just can't see two sclhlubs both winning. I really think that people will vote their hearts here and not out of obligation, which would give it to Jake.

Also, I think Brokeback will win score. My own bias, maybe, but come on, it will win. Another against for Williams: all of his wins in the last 30 years have come from best pic nominees. And they've all become iconic cultural phenom scores (Jaws, E.T, Star Wars) or else come from uber-respected, oscared classics (Schindler). The Geisha score is neither. Plus he has himself is competition... the only time he's managed to beat himself is with Star Wars, arguably the most iconic, popular, and instantly recognizable film score of all time. Geisha is not that either. Plus people like Munich better. I really think Williams cancels himself out, and Brokeback take it.

So them's my two cents (er, paragraphs).

John T said...

For me, it's all about Supporting Actor-Weisz is just their type in Best Supporting Actress (easily noticable scene-stealers have won the last seven years, though the quality has been a wide range).

I think I'm going with Clooney, as it is conventional wisdom, but my gut instinct initially was to go with Giamatti (the Academy doesn't like to be chided for its mistakes), and I just watched Brokeback again, and I have to say that Gyllenhaal is just Oscar-worthy. I know this doesn't really matter to the Academy, but he is SO the standout in this category. Giamatti's boring, Dillon's in a so-so film, Hurt is blink and you miss it, and Clooney was overshadowed by his costar Damon. It should be all about Gyllenhaal-on occasion, they go with the best perf, so who knows?

Sam said...

I'm still holding out hope for Jake for Best Supporting Actor, but I say that fully realizing that Clooney has an edge. Spinal fluid is the new trachiotomy.


sam -great line! hee

Anonymous said...

I definitely hear ya on your confusion on these categories. I seriously am at a loss for where supporting actor goes.

Tsotsi is obviously the favorite, but remember No Man's Land that beat Amelie? Theres a political film that won the globe in an "upset" and still Amelie was the favorite to take the Oscar. No Man's Land still won out.

And with Supporting Actress, I cant help but see a correlation between Amy Adams and Marcia Gay Harden. A worshipped perf that didnt win the globe or sag but ended up with the oscar. I can't figure out who I want to win, Adams or Weisz, but I just think Adams has a real shot!

Anonymous said...

If only William Hurt were a serious contender in Supporting Actor I'd feel more confident predicting a Jake Gyllenhaal win.

It's that cluster^@*# nature of the category that helps Gyllenhaal more than anything. He's going to pull the hardcore Brokeback vote, and then the other votes splinter all over the place. In a two-way race with Clooney or Giamatti he'd probably lose. But Dillon coming on in the stretch is probably helping Gyllenhaal because I doubt he's taking many cowboy votes. I'd say Hurt and Dillon take votes that might have gone to Giamatti. If Clooney is the force of nature the television media seem to think,,, then he's too far ahead to catch and will win, but if none of the five gets more than 30% of the vote, I think Gyllenhaal wins. How about this percentage breakdown: 28%;26%,23%,18%,5%

Good luck with your picks.

Sam said...

Thanks, Nathaniel. your graphic inspired me.

Anonymous said...

Some thoughts:
There's just three categories I wish I'm sure, who will win:
Best score - Pride & prejudice (really the best if you compare all 5 - beautiful and sort of classical, should do the trick!)
Best costumes - Memoirs of a geisha (they love it when the costumes are part of the story. And also such detailed geisha costumes - there is no match this year)
Best live action short - Six shooter (loved the Pillowman and the Inishmore leuthenant - didn't everybosy - this Irish playwriter is the one to watch and this story was as good as trhe rest of his work. I haven't seen last farm, but I feel Six shooter will take the win. The only conder i see could be Our time is up)
Some other strong feelings I have:
I loved Brokeback mountain, but I feel that Munich was much more interesting and important. I really hope that Spielberg will also get the director honours, although Lee did a great job also, I do feel Spielberg had a lot more to actually do when directing such a complexed emotional journey as Munich was. Also the screenplay was great - it all came through on the screen - the story of the hunters becoming the hunted. I really hope that people saw the subtext that it's not always wise to pay back according to the bible - tooth for tooth - kill for kill.
I guess the hardest job to act was mr.Strathaim's. It was really a person not some gay character to play it like a steretype as the role of Capote was handled. I'm really mad if this goes through. I guess that is the worse performance of the bunch. Actress category - there just isn't any other nominees fro me that Reese. She did a great job. Supporting actor is a three head race - Clooney, Giamatti and Gyllenhaal. Can't really see how one can be better than the others. Supporting actress - I really don't understand why Keener is nominated. She's a great actress, but his role was just too small and nothing special. I hope Adams or at least Weisz wins. Didn't really like Williams at all - she should have stayd acting in telly.
Original screenplay is the toughins of them all. I loved all 5 of the screenplays. I've loved Woody through the years, so I hope he will win, but I guess Crash takes it home.Cinematography should be homerun for Good night and good luck or Brokeback.Art direction is quite tough too, but King Kong was quite splended with period elements, but I hope pride and pejudice get's the recognition it deserves in this category.
Editing winner should be Munich, but I guess 10 out of 10 guess that it will go to Crash. I've seen only 3 foreign films, and out of these 3 Sophie Scholl is for sure not the winner. But both Merry Christmas and Paradise now were good in their own genre. Regardless of all I guess Tsotsi will take home the prize - after winning Toronto festival. Sound should definately go to King Kong as well as sound effects editing. Song I hope goes to Dolly, but Crash can be the surprise winner. I strongly doubt that Hustle&flow will win, they already saluted rap music when Eminen did his trick. Visua effects should easily go to King and makeup to makeup to Narnia. Although I wish animated Oscar to go to Corpse bride, I guess it's a done deal that Wallace and Gromit will take the statue. I really really hope that Penguins take home the documentary oscar, because I don't like to watch crippled people, although it made me think of what I have to whine about anything, when these people who have lived through such accidents and are still so positive and full of life. I didn't like much the rest of the three documentaries, especially because there were so many better ones this year who didn't even make the shortlist. I really hope that Rwanda get the short documentary oscar although all 4 are strong ones. Animated short should in my opinion go to Jasper Morello - it was really interesting. But I also loved the usual fun stuff like Badgered and One man band.
Huhh, long story, but this is my only blog entry and the only place this year where I give out my thoughts...see how it will all come to reality on sunday.

Anonymous said...

P.S. Still don't understand why Finland wasn't nominated for best foreign. Mother of mine is far most moving film in recent cinema history and with supurb cinematography and best lead actress.

Anonymous said...

Think that way. Rachel Weisz has a leading role (just think about the past of this category. being lead is what really matters, unless you're a former snubbed veteran - a few minutes will give you the prize) - in which she delivers a very impressive performance. The other ones are not that central in their movies, they're not the reason people talk about them. Ok, Amy Adams is - but I still think her movie is too tiny to make her beat that showy, impressive, pregnant and Globe/SAG winner.

Cal Roth

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, you have issue with Jake Gyllenhaal being in Supporting Actor yet I don't understand why you don't have issue with Rachel Weisz in Supporting Actress? It is the same scenario. I mean at the BAFTA's she was in the Lead Actress category.

Jake is the strongest in his category as Rachel is in hers. It's unfortunate that you think Supporting Actor is the weakest. Personally, I think they all gave good performances that deserved to be nominated, especially Jake. It is really disappointing to have seen Jake's performance underrated by critics, etc. They seem not to have paid attention to the subtlety and nuance.

Glenn Dunks said...

I actually made an entry on my blog yesterday where I decided that Jake is going to win. For a movie that was so praised for it's acting and will almost certainly win BP, how could BBM not win one acting award? Strange. And Gyllenhaal has won some awards already so it's not like it's out of the realm. Plus, I figure they're gonna want someone good looking to be this year's IT person.

Plus, he's HOLLYWOOD ROYALTY. And, ya know, people LOVE the performance.

As for your other four sway-categories. I am predicting...

Song - Dolly! I think Dolly's song is a perfect song for them to reward a legend with. It's a great song and is truly about the movie it represents.

Score - I'm going with Gustavo. I have been making the argument for a while (and this is what Adam K was also saying) that are the academy really going to want to place Williams' Memoirs score alongside Star Wars, Jaws, ET, Schindler's List and Fiddler on the Roof? He's nominated so often that it'd seem silly to waste it on Williams.

Supporting Actress - I'm gonna predict Wiesz as a token for the film. But I'd love to see Williams make it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Amy Adams win at all. Not one miliounce.

Foreign - Going with Paradise Now. That'll be a great speech. But I'd love to see South Africa claim it. They're having a reneisance.

Anonymous said...

Well, I just poked my head in here to mention that no matter how hard I try, I can't seem to recall the main theme of Brokeback Mountain. So perhaps it's not as "sticky" as you imagine...

Anonymous said...

I'm predicting Gyllenhaal for Supporting Actor. I don't feel that anyone is voting for either Clooney or Giamatti because they deeply truly love their nominated performances; they'd be voting for other reasons (in Clooney's case, the "what a great year" factor; in Giamatti's case, the "snubbed last year" factor). I don't buy Gyllenhaal as a support, but if the Academy is making me decide which of those 5 performances is the most impressive, then I'd be voting Gyllenhaal with both the heart and the head.

But because I'm chicken, I don't want to go so far out on a limb with Supporting Actress. I THINK and predict that Weisz will take it, but I do genuinely have this gut feeling that it's Adams's name we'll hear. Tom's Marcia Gay Harden observation is so right.

My preferences:
PIC: Brokeback
DIR: Lee
ACTOR: Ledger
SUPP ACTOR: Gyllenhaal

My predictions:
PIC: Brokeback
DIR: Lee
ACTOR: Hoffman
ACTRESS: Witherspoon
SUPP ACTOR: Gyllenhaal


Anonymous said...

Re the Brokeback score... reading, surfing and watching TV coverage of the Brokeback spoofs has emphasized how recognizable the music ihas become... it's what makes most of the youtube spoofs work. Ironic if Gustavo gets the Oscar because so many people have had The Wings imprinted via spoofs.

Anonymous said...

I am a huge OSCAR person, but this year will be as boring and predictable as previous years. The obvious ones will win and there will be no HUGE surprises. The academy doesn't have the balls to surprise us anymore. I hope I am wrong and if there are some surprise wins, I will eat calamari - hehe!

Anonymous said...

Supporting Actress ... Catherine Keener

Glenn Dunks said...

I think another reason we rarely see BIG surprises anymore is because we all talk Oscar SO much that by some point everyone is a contender.