Sunday, January 29, 2006

Final Oscar Predictions

Because it's time to put this all to bed. FINAL (absolutely final) Oscar predictions. Now let's take a day off from awards, shall we?


Glenn Dunks said...

I'm surprised Joan Allen wasn't at the top of the list of people you feared snubbed.

Some interesting choices. I see you've gone with Adams. Howard in BOTH categories? wow.

I'm about to post my predictions right now. Exciting.

Glenn Dunks said...

Okay, my nominations are up. I think I am predicting way too much Batman Begins and Constant Gardener, way too little Capote and just about the right about of Brokeback, Good Night & Good Luck and Walk the Line.

But I threw some real oddballs in there. Like Kar-Wai for Director, Batman for Screenplay and Paltrow for Actress. Hmmm...

adam k. said...

I think Adams will get in. The support is clearly there. It's those early screeners that I think did the trick. The one I'm most worried about in that category is Bello... but how sweet would it be if yours was the actual lineup?

I have a feeling Best Pic and director will be wildly divergent.

I don't think you're necessarily wrong on aHoV. Director/Screenplay seems quite likely. And if those two are there, it just seems like there'd be a few more, right? And I personally wouldn't be surprised if Batman gets no noms at all.

Anonymous said...

you have Munich with three, but I'm only counting Screenplay and Editing...
I still think BBM could be snubbed in the acting categories and Score, me being pessimistic
and if one of MacLaine or Newton has to pop up I hope it's Shirley

Anonymous said...

I'll say it now: Tilda will get a nom for Narnia.

But I'll say it anonymously in case I'm wrong.

Anonymous said...

Pretty much agree with your predix in the acting categories Nathaniel, except:

Actor - Terrence Howard is OUT and Russell Crowe is IN

Actress - Joan Allen is OUT (hopefully!) and Charlize Theron is IN. I'd even put Knightley (shame on the BAFTAs for sticking the final nail in her beautifully acted coffin), Paltrow and Linney's chances as being greater than Allen's!

Supp Actor - completely agree

Supp Actress - Maria Bello is OUT (as much as I want her to be in!) and Frances McDormand is IN

Keep it up matey!

Anonymous said...

I have a sneaky, day-before hunch that Thandie Newton is going to make it in. However, last year I had the same last minute, out-of-nowhere premonition about Julie Delpy (Before Sunset) and look how that one turned out.


Anonymous said...

I can't shake the feeling they are going to do some crazy things in the Best Director category. Like nominate Werner Herzog or Michael Haneke in protest of the arcane elegibility rules of the Documentary and Foreign Films committee. Having just seen Grizzly Man and Cache this weekend and having them kick Brokeback Mountain and The Squid and the Whale out of my top 5 for last year, I would like to see that happen.

Anonymous said...

That Herzog/Haneke prediction might not be too far off the mark; it happened with Kieslowski when Red was ineligible for foreign language film.

Anonymous said...

It also happened to Almodovar with Talk to Her.


the main difference being that Haneke is much less accessible than Kieslowzki and Almodovar.

Caché is great but it also skewers the same people it needs to be on its side so I would be surprised if it musters support quick enough.

I really don't want Thandie nominated but I fear it too.

Amir --how could you want Joan Allen out? It's such a lively interesting performance... especially once you stack up alongside the ones that have been getting nominations. zzzz

I personally would love to see BD/BP with a 2/5 split (hasn't happened in 30 40 years or something... ) but this is probably not the time... 3/5 is fairly easy to imagine this year though.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't say I FEAR Thandie sneaking in. I realise that you find the performance uneven, but I have to admit I don't understand why - I think she's excellent throughout, and - next to Dillon - the second "best in show". I still wouldn't quite put her in my Top 5 though (Adams, Weisz, Bello, Williams, Li).

However, I too can't imagine how anyone can find anything to dislike about Joan Allen's performance! It's a dry comic masterclass. For what it's worth, my Top 5: Dench, Allen, Collette, (Radha) Mitchell, Paltrow.


Poli said...

Anyone think that it's weird that the newly 'diverse' Academy could have almost no non-Caucasian nominees? The potential is there for a Ziyi snub, as well as a Terrence Howard snub. And when you look at the Most Likely to Succeed replacements, hardly any of them are either.

I don't really care (if anything, I want the media to get over it instead of tainting victories like Denzel's for Training Day), but if the mentioned snubs do happen, I have a feeling we'll have comments from the media about it.

Anonymous said...

I don't think there's a "diversity trend" in the Academy at all. It just so happens that there are more minority and foreign performances being created and gaining media attention. Yes, some have been undeserving, but for every one of those, there has been one (or two) underserving Caucasion performances. How do you differentiate between Laura Linney and Sophie Okenedo getting nominations last year for typical roles? I think it's sort of condescending to say that any minority nomination from here on out is because of an affirmative-action program within the Academy. I've had qualms with some nominations myself (Salma Hayek, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Djimon Honsou), but they were far from being bad or embarassing choices.

- Adam

adam k. said...

I actually preferred Okonedo to Linney that year. Sophie's was a typical role, but she really imbued it with a lot of power. Linney was just sorta "there" most of the time in Kinsey.

Poli said...

I wasn't saying they need to be diverse or anything, I was just wondering how the media might react to this slightly off year.

Glenn Dunks said...

Adam, the whole movie was just there. That piece of claptrap was sooo bad. I wasn't impressed with Okenedo either. She screamed well though.

I would be delighted to see Thandie Newton in there and I am predicting her.

The whole diversity thing though was what lead to be originally predicting Terrance Howard for Best Actor all those months ago - I figured the voters are pretty proud of themselves lately so why not keep it up. I mean, its not like its a bad performance (apparently - i have not seen the film).

New rule - anyone who barracks AGAINST Joan Allen should be banned, okay?

BBM snubbed in acting? Whoa. I highly doubt that.