Friday, January 27, 2006

SAG Predictions

SAG Predictions
Teri Hatcher will wear something very tight --I know. I know. Such limbs I go out on. The Capote table will be having a good time. Brokeback Mountain will lose the ensemble prize and lots of silly second guessing will happen in the media who will assume that it suddenly isn't a sure thing for the Oscar BP crown. (It is.) Amy Adams will charm everyone if the cameras show her (but sometimes SAG camera work makes curious omissions). Felicity Huffman will repeat her speech about being an out of work actor when she wins for her Desperate Housewives role and people will begin to resent her instead of go "awwww" since how successful can one person be anyway --shut up about the lean years! Hilary Swank will annoy me, looking on in understanding. Perhaps they share a hard-knock backstory loving PR Agent? (Swank annoying me? There are those shaky limbs again --I'm a daredevil of prophesy). Renée Zellweger will find a way to be there just to spite me in the one year when I should have finally been free of her red carpet ubiquity.

Oh, you meant the awards themselves? Sorry... Hear we go. The theme will be schlubby guys. That's right. I'm predicting that both of the male prizes go to characters actors. Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) will walk off unglamourously with 'the actors' trophy

Meanwhile over in the ladies department I'm thinking the story is "petite youthful beauty" --counterprogramming for the schlubbiness? Though supporting actress is a real tussle and could really go to any of the nominees outside of Frances McDormand (a previous SAG winner who won't be repeating the trick) I'm guessing Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain) takes the prize here for her justly lauded work and Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) edges out Felicity Huffman with gawking movie-star worshipping SAG voters (marking the first time in umpteen years where the de-glam trend has exhibited any weakness at all as Oscar ploy. yeaaahhhhh)

Summing up
Will win: Hoffman, Witherspoon, Giamatti, Williams, and Crash
Should win: Ledger, Witherspoon, Dillon/Gyllenhaal, Williams and Good Night, and Good Luck.
Nathaniel's Nightmare: Crowe, Huffman, Cheadle, McDormand, and Crash(...I'm not saying those five are poor performances. Just nowhere close to the right choices when naming best of an entire year.)
Best DramaQueen Scenario (i.e. SAG wins that would make Oscar night a nail-niter) Ledger, Dench, Gyllenhaal, Keener, and Good Night, and Good Luck.

More elaborate reasoning behind my choices over at the FILM EXPERIENCE on the SAG Awards page. Predictions are complete there.


Rex said...

Nathaniel, you are damn right about Swank and Renee! How they annoy the hell out of me too .....and to think I am so far away in the UK.
With regards to the SAG Ensemble, yes Crash will probably take that and then Ang will probably lose the DGA to one of the former TV people (Haggis or Clooney), then people like David Poland will be able to write that the tide is turning against BBM?
Thank God the naysayers were unable to do so this week - since BBM still had the momentum from the PGA win. The good thing about this weekend is that we will only be a day away from the big morning on tuesday where BBM will sweep the nominations board by taking 10 Nominations in total. Go Brokeback!!!!

Joe R. said...

So am I the only one who thinks Brokeback Mountain will actually win the Ensemble?

Anonymous said...

I like the Drama Queen scenario, but I think you got at least one wrong. I don't think anyone actually thinks Judi Dench has a chance to win the Oscar. If anyone has a threat to Reese it has to be Huffman, for all the reasons you despise, plus her Globe win. If she won the SAG, that would make things verrry interesting.

Also not sure a Keener win would make S. Actress any more interesting than it already is... do we still think Williams is the front runner to win? Weisz? Any direction they go, this will be the most interesting category come Oscar night.

Ledger, Gyllenhaal, GN&GL, agreed.

Anonymous said...

I think Nathaniel is making me admire Felicity Huffman's performance even more.


arkaan --what you mean like in protest or something --Adversity making your heart grow stronger?

adam k. said...

No, Joe, you're not the only one. I think it will be tight between Brokeback and Crash. Tough to say who will actually get it, though.

adam k. said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
adam k. said...

Also, of COURSE Renée Zellweger will be there. She is still the only actor to have recieved "actors" in all three film categories of of lead, supporting, and ensemble, so she probably has the guild's open invitation to attend every ceremony from now to the end of time.

Doesn't that just make you want to smile, Nat? I know, I know, me too.

adam k. said...

How do you remove your own posts when you double post? I need to know this.

Glenn Dunks said...

Adam, click the recycle bin at the bottom of a post.

Dench could suprise at Oscar after a Reese/Felicity split. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.

But, 'tev.

Anonymous said...

re: nathaniel

Yeah, pretty much. I dislike the "deglam" trend as much as you (on most days. Other days, you blow me out of the water with your hatred). I think Theron's oscar winning performance (for example) is among the worst performances to win the oscar. But I think the things you disliked about the performance outside "deglamming" (you brought up how forced she felt) I completely missed. I was astonished at her level of empathy and understanding of her character.

I'm rooting for her, if only to show that a woman over 40 can actually win the oscar, stopping this train of awarding Hollywood princesses, a trend that's just as annoying as deglamming, imo.


well arkaan, if that's what you're rooting for you need to back Joan Allen or Judi Dench and kill BOTH annoying tunnel visioned trends.

Glenn Dunks said...

But it's not like Reese Witherspoon's performance is bad. What's wrong with rewarding her if her perf is great if the only reason you want Huffman to win is because she's over 40.

But, yeah, go Joan, really.

Anonymous said...

I didn't care for Joan Allen's performance in The Upside of Anger. I don't know why. I'd root for her for Yes if she stood a chance, though.

aren't I annoying :D

Anonymous said...

Don't get me wrong. I love Felicity Huffman, and think her performance is completely and wonderfully worthy of tonnes of accolades. But out of the two trends we're discussing, the inability of the academy to break out of awarding "young American princesses" (I know, Theron and Kidman aren't American, but they are Hollywood) is more aggravating then "deglamming." Especially since it extends to the best actor category (traditional leading men tend to dominate this category, and why Heath Ledger can lose everything but still have a hope of winning the oscar over Philip Seymour Hoffman; why Giammati was snubbed last year for Depp/Cheadle/Eastwood). If Witherspoon gives a worthy performance, I have no qualms with her winning (I haven't seen Walk the Line yet), but that doesn't mean it's not part of a trend.

AS for Judi Dench, given how heartily the film was endorsed by Rex Reed, I've decided to skip it (Rex Reed being the most useless critic on the face of the planet, second only to Armond White).

Anonymous said...

From IMDB:
Nicole Kidman
Date of birth (location)
20 June 1967
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

As for: 'Rex Reed being the most useless critic on the face of the planet, second only to Armond White', I still think Mike Medved takes the cake for most useless critic under the sun.

- Robbie K.

Anonymous said...

I'll take your Rex Reed and Mike Medved, and raise you a Larry King. I realize the criptkeeper's not a critic in the classical sense but geez, how many times have I seen his whorish blurbs plastered in print and on TV adverts, and driving me to drink from the back of DVD covers? Too many, that's how many. (P.S. Is there any movie EVER that the old guy hasn't slobbered over?) Patooey!


Anonymous said...

Larry King is a blurb-whore who has nothing to do with movie criticism and therefore is ignored by me.

Mike Medved? I'll give you that one though. I loathe Rex Reed more.

re: Kidman, mea culpa on my part. Though she identifies herself as Australian, so I don't think I'm too far off.

Sorry for highjacking this Nathaniel.

Glenn Dunks said...

Nicole was indeed born in America but her parents are Australian (or so I believe) and was raised here. Hence - Australian.

There was a hilarious article recently about blurb whores. Hysterical.

Larry King says Fantastic Four is "Fun!"

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